| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Mexican police stand guard outside the Ecuadorian Embassy in Mexico City on April 6, 2024. Last weekend, Mexico cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador after Quito raided the Mexican embassy, a direct violation of international sovereignty. | Ginnette Riquelme/AP | With help from Erin Banco, Phelim Kine and Alex Ward Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric While the White House remains laser-focused on Israel, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific, a trio of conflicts have broken out much closer to home in recent months that could become a growing problem for the administration. Armed gangs are running amok in Haiti. Ecuador’s government raided the Mexican embassy. And Venezuela is threatening to invade and annex Guyana’s oil-rich territory. “Chaos in Latin America finds its way to the U.S.,” BENJAMIN GEDAN, former South America director on the National Security Council, told NatSec Daily. And as areas close to the U.S. border becomes less stable, it also may force the Biden administration to pull back from further afield crises. “Today, we see that most of the attention is on the Gaza war or Ukraine-Russia war. But if we start to see more instability and tensions in Latin America, attention will have to be diverted to the neighboring region,” ARIEL DULITZKY, director of the Human Rights Clinic and the Latin America Initiative at UT Austin, told NatSec Daily. National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said the administration has had “unprecedented engagement” in the region and “we will not stop now.” “We recognize that there are many national security priorities, but the president has maintained his unwavering commitment to our partners in the Americas,” Watson told NatSec Daily. A few hundred miles off the Florida coast, gangs are overtaking much of Haiti — a conflict the U.S. has already dedicated some $300 million toward, but lacks a detailed plan to remedy. Republicans are blocking funds that could allow a Kenyan-led multinational security mission to deploy to Haiti (in theory), though there are doubts that foreign intervention would help. The Biden administration is planning to use its presidential drawdown authority to fast-track $60 million in weapons, ammunition and other equipment to countries that would deploy to Haiti as part of the planned security force, according to a document provided to NatSec Daily. The move, an apparent attempt to go around Republican oversight efforts, reflects the growing pressure on the administration to take action. Mexico and Ecuador are also steeped in turmoil right now. Last weekend, Mexico cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador — both among Washington’s closest partners in the region — after Quito raided the Mexican embassy, a direct violation of international sovereignty. By raiding one embassy, a drastic move that has rarely ever happened in history, Ecuador seemingly also put all embassies in the country at risk, experts say. The dispute could exacerbate chaos throughout the region, they warn, escalation that the Biden administration can’t afford right now. “Feuds between leaders in the region make everything worse, complicating U.S. efforts to promote regional cooperation on migration, organized crime, and other urgent challenges,” said Gedan, now director of the Wilson Center's Latin America Program. On the other side of the continent, Venezuela has made threats to annex a resource-rich region of Guyana which it has claimed for over a century. The specter of a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana, where U.S. oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have invested billions of dollars over the past decade, prompted the U.S. to send more military assistance to Guyana earlier this year. “There are good faith efforts, but [the administration is] seriously constrained by its attention span being consumed with other issues” such as Ukraine and Israel, RENATA SEGURA, deputy program director of Latin America and Caribbean at the International Crisis Group think tank, told NatSec Daily. One common risk of all these crises: increased migration to the U.S. Lawmakers and experts alike have warned about the possible exodus of Haitian migrants to the U.S. In Ecuador, the recent uptick in violent crime led to the explosion in Ecuadorian migration to the north, Gedan said, and the same thing could happen if Venezuela invades Guyana.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more. | | | | | BRACING FOR ATTACK: Israel is preparing for a potentially large attack from Iran that could come as soon as Saturday, people familiar with western intelligence assessments told Bloomberg News’ DONATO PAOLO MANCINI, JENNIFER JACOBS and ALEX WICKHAM. It remains unclear when exactly Tehran plans to strike Israel in retaliation for an attack on its consulate in Damascus last week. But Western officials are getting ready for the escalation, which could trigger a wider war in the region. Asked by the White House pool about the timing of a possible attack, President JOE BIDEN said “my expectation is sooner than later.” “Barring some last minute development, Iran is going to attack #Israel. The response and risk of escalation will depend on what and how they attack,” Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), vice chair of the Senate Intelligence committee, tweeted today. On Thursday night, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN told Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT that “Israel could count on full U.S. support to defend Israel against Iranian attacks,” a Pentagon spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal’s BENOIT FAUCON and ANAT PELED. The U.S. has moved warships into position to protect American and Israeli forces in the region in case of an attack, WSJ’s GORDON LUBOLD, DOV LIEBER and Faucon report. The U.S. has assessed that Iran wants to hit Israel while avoiding retaliation from Washington, our own LARA SELIGMAN, ALEX WARD and NAHAL TOOSI report. But Iran sent a message to Washington through Arab partners earlier this week warning that, if the U.S. gets involved, its forces in the region will be attacked, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reports. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY demurred when asked by reporters about how the U.S. would respond to an Iranian strike. Yet Kirby acknowledged that it was still a “viable” and “credible” threat and stated “I certainly can't deny that we've taken a look at” U.S. posture in the region “and made some adjustments.” STUCK IN NIGERIA: A former U.S. federal agent has been imprisoned in Nigeria since February as apparent leverage in a dispute between his company and the country’s government. More than a month ago, TIGRAN GAMBARYAN, the top crime investigator at cryptocurrency exchange Binance, was invited to Nigeria to discuss the government’s ongoing dispute with the company. He was swiftly arrested and later charged along with another Binance executive for tax evasion and money laundering. The other executive, a British-Kenyan citizen, escaped custody and fled the country. Tigran is still in jail. “It's been very, very, very frustrating,” YUKI GAMBARYAN, his wife, told NatSec Daily. “I feel abandoned, and Tigran feels abandoned because he gave 10 years of his life as a federal agent serving the country.” The State Department wouldn’t say whether or not he’s wrongfully detained when asked by NatSec Daily: “We are aware of reports of the detention of a U.S. citizen in Abuja, Nigeria. When a U.S. citizen is detained overseas, the department works to provide all appropriate assistance,” the State Department said, sending us the same response they sent journalists weeks ago. Tigran’s high-profile recruitment to Binance three years ago was widely seen as an attempt by the company to clean up its act, as it had come under scrutiny for not complying with regulations, flows of dirty money and lack of cooperation with law enforcement around the world. Now, in an ironic twist, Yuki argues that he’s being used as a pawn between Binance and the Nigerian government. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring BRENT NEIMAN, deputy under secretary for international finance at the Treasury Department. When Neiman’s not monitoring global markets or leading Treasury’s Financial Working Group with China, he likes to sip on a glass of Islay Scotch Whisky. Neiman prefers it neat, so he definitely looks cooler than when Matt adds soda. (Eric also looks tough drinking it on the rocks.) “I like having a glass while grilling outdoors. The smokey flavor works well with barbeque, the one thing I know how to cook well,” Neiman said. After all, a glass of scotch can only make your culinary skills better. Cheers, Brent! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | HERITAGE HIT: A cyberattack that targeted the Heritage Foundation this week may have targeted the think tank’s initiative that’s gathering up resumes and formulating policy positions for another Trump administration. Early Wednesday morning, Heritage’s cybersecurity system identified an incoming attack and an investigation by their security vendor found that it was likely hackers from China or Russia, a think tank official told our DANIEL LIPPMAN (for Pros!). Heritage shut down its network to prevent further attacks and investigate, and employees were able to gain access to the Heritage network after resetting their usernames and passwords on Thursday. Two people familiar with the matter said the cyberattack may have been aimed at Project 2025. The official said the think tank took down public access to a Project 2025 application form as a precaution and that initiative’s database was not touched at all since it’s on a separate network. The official also said that no donor information was compromised.
| | IRAN’S CYBER STRIKES: As tensions about possible airstrikes have mounted, Tehran has ramped up its cyber offensives against Israel over the past week, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity report (for Pros!). Israel-based cybersecurity firm Check Point told MC the number of cyber strikes from Iranian state-backed or proxy attackers have nearly doubled in recent weeks, though threats have been high since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by militant group Hamas. GIL MESSING, chief of staff for Check Point, said it had tracked at least 10 Iranian-backed advanced persistent threat groups attacking Israeli organizations, two of which have ties to militant group Hezbollah. He noted that attacks on key Israeli groups had risen from 1,000 to 1,400 per week, to about 2,100 per week in recent days. Messing said Iran has particularly focused its attacks on Israeli hospitals, universities and media groups, often using malicious emails as an easy vector in. “It’s a cyber war, it’s a real cyber war, and while they haven’t been successful in creating nationwide damage, they are definitely on their way to doing that,” Messing said. TARGETING HAMAS’ CYBER OPS: The Treasury Department today sanctioned four leaders of the militant group Hamas for allegedly directing the organization’s disinformation, cyber and drone attacks, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). Those sanctioned include HUDHAYFA SAMIR ‘ABDALLAH AL-KAHLUT, the spokesperson for the al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ military wing in Gaza. He's accused of leading the organization’s cyber influence operations and of obtaining the servers to host the al-Qassam Brigades' website in cooperation with the Iranian government.
| | | |   | | | | | LA FRANCE ON DÉFENSE: French and German weapons sales to Israel were hit by legal action this week, our own LAURA KAYALI reports. In Paris, 11 NGOs including Amnesty International France and Attac have filed court cases to make France stop arms deliveries to Israel, according to investigative outlet Disclose. In Germany, human rights lawyers asked the Berlin administrative court to suspend the German government's decision to send 3,000 anti-tank weapons to Israel, according to Reuters. Western nations are increasingly coming under pressure to stop selling weapons to Israel as its military campaign in the Gaza Strip enters its seventh month. The Spanish, Belgian and Dutch governments have already scaled back or halted weapons sales to Israel in light of Israel’s treatment of civilians in the territory.
| | | SPY BILL MOVES FORWARD: After several attempts, the House passed its bill to reauthorize the controversial government surveillance earlier today, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. To get holdouts on board, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON shortened the reauthorization period for the program from five years to two years. It will now move to the Senate for debate. As part of the Biden administration’s push to get 702 reauthorized CIA Director BILL BURNS, who rarely speaks publicly about how the agency uses 702, told our own ERIN BANCO it has been key to its disruption of illegal fentanyl shipments into the U.S. “Section 702 is an essential tool in CIA’s mission to protect the American people from a range of threats, including illicit fentanyl trafficking,” Burns said. “Without this vital program, CIA simply would not be able to defend our country as effectively.” A U.S. official added that the CIA recently disrupted a shipment of a large quantity of a precursor chemical of Chinese origin using a query to the 702 database. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HAVANA-OTHER GO AT IT: A bipartisan group of seven senators called on the Biden administration to further investigate the causes of “Havana syndrome,” the mysterious illness that has afflicted many U.S. officials, as more cases have come to light. In a letter to Biden, the senators urged the administration to hold a briefing with officials to discuss findings that Russia may be behind the incidents and decide how to move forward, finalize policy that makes sure those affected by Havana syndrome receive financial compensation, and work with lawmakers to advance any new legislation that might help get to the root of what is causing the incidents and make sure victims receive treatment. The letter was signed by Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.), MARK WARNER (D-Va.), SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) and Rubio. MORE DOCS: The House Foreign Affairs Committee released a third tranche of documents Thursday night related to its investigation into the Biden administration’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, this time including interviews with DEREK CHOLLET and BRIAN McKEON.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | CAMPAIGN FOR ELIZABETH TSURKOV: Ahead of Iraqi Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA' AL SUDANI’s visit to Washington next week, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are pressing the White House to discuss the kidnapping of a Russo-Israeli journalist by a Shia militia supported by the Iraqi government. Tsurkov, a Princeton doctoral student who was conducting research for her dissertation, was kidnapped in Iraq by Kata’ib Hezbollah, a Shia militia which is backed by Iran and is recognized as part of Iraq’s security apparatus. Tsurkov was purportedly targeted by the militia because of her Israeli citizenship. Kata’ib Hezbollah has accused her of working for Mossad and the CIA, claims Tsurkov’s family vehemently denies. Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) blasted Al Sudani’s visit, saying in a letter to Biden that it’s “inappropriate to host a leader-level meeting for a government that is enabling Iranian-backed terrorists to continue threatening the U.S. and its national security interests.” The letter, shared exclusively with NatSec Daily, is being circulated on Capitol Hill and calls on Biden to “condition the meeting on Sudani’s delivery of Ms. Tsurkov home safely and in good health to her family.” It joins a letter earlier this week from Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) and other Democrats calling on the White House to continue negotiating for her release. In a move with a clear audience, Tsurkov’s mother has also purchased ad time in the D.C. market on Biden’s favorite news show — MSNBC’s Morning Joe. The 30-second spot, titled “Bring Elizabeth Home,” calls on Biden “to use your meeting with Iraq’s prime minister to demand Elizabeth’s release from the terrorists they fund.” DETAILS ON IDF COMMANDER: The most senior Israel Defense Force commander dismissed for his role in the World Central Kitchen strike “is a settler who signed an open letter in January calling for the territory to be deprived of aid,” The Telegraph’s PAUL NUKI, LILIA SEBOUAI and SAMUEL LOVETT write.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more. | | | | | — Beacon Global Strategies’ Indo-Pacific Practice added MEGHAN HARRIS, formerly of GlobalFoundries, as a senior vice president and ANN KOWALEWSKI, a former Indo-Pacific staffer at HFAC, as an associate vice president. — Rancher Government Solutions named BRIAN SHIMKAVEG as the senior director of Department of Defense and intelligence community sales. He is an alum of Falkory, Red Hat and Boeing.
| | — J. D. VANCE, The New York Times: The math on Ukraine doesn’t add up — MINA AL-ORAIBI, Foreign Affairs: Don’t abandon Iraq — Editorial board, National Review: Trump’s FISA attack is incoherent
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: A book discussion on "We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War" — Inter-American Dialogue, 11 a.m.: Consolidation of power and state capture in Nicaragua — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program, 11:30 a.m.: The Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe in 2024 — Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: Looking north: security in the Arctic — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program, 2:30 p.m.: Weimar triangle: Europe's new engine — Hudson Institute, 2:30 p.m.: The struggle for freedom in Belarus — Center for Global Development, 3 p.m.: How to strengthen cooperation in a fragmenting world, focusing on the international financial and development sphere — Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program, 4 p.m.: A book discussion on "Catastrophic Diplomacy: U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance in the American Century" — Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Reflections from Moscow and Ukraine: lessons for Taiwan Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is the sole reason for instability in our lives. We also thank our producer, Giselle Ewing, who eases the tension. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
