Trump still vulnerable on abortion, poll finds

Apr 25, 2024

With help from Megan Messerly

Driving The Day

A graph shows change in people’s opinions of leaving abortion to the states after hearing about Trump’s support.

TRUMP’S ABORTION DILEMMA — Despite presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s messaging on leaving abortion to the states, he’s still vulnerable on the issue, according to a new POLITICO-Morning Consult poll, Megan reports.

Half of the voters polled back states crafting their own laws compared with 35 percent who oppose it. But the poll also found cracks for Trump among independents and even some GOP voters. It’s a signal that Trump could struggle to reverse Republican losses on the issue, even with the popular new tack he rolled out this month.

The poll of 1,993 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points was conducted April 12-15, after Trump announced his position on abortion.

Still, conservatives give Trump substantial leeway. Three-fifths of self-identified Republicans say they support states making their own rules on abortion, a number that jumps to three-fourths when they were told that was Trump’s stance.

Independent voters favor both federal and state-based approaches equally at close to 50 percent, but fewer oppose the state-based approach. Those figures suggest Trump might not be adding new voters based on his view, but it could be neutralizing abortion-related concerns among moderates.

Windows for Biden: Six in 10 independents aren’t happy that Roe was overturned, as are nearly 4 in 10 Republicans.

President Joe Biden also has more room to tie Trump — who’s declared himself “proudly the person responsible” for Roe’s fall — to the decision. Two-thirds of respondents say congressional Republicans are responsible, compared with 58 percent who say Trump is.

Respondents are split on Biden’s handling of abortion — with 46 percent saying they trust him and the same share saying they don’t — but most say they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue.

Other key findings include:

— A federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother has significant support, at 54 percent.

— Three-quarters of voters back continued access to in vitro fertilization, including 64 percent of Republicans, 78 percent of voters over age 65 and 65 percent of evangelicals.

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Abortion

Anti-abortion and abortion-rights activists rally outside the Supreme Court

Anti-abortion and abortion-rights activists rallied outside the Supreme Court on Wednesday. | Jose Luis Magana/AP

TAKEAWAYS FROM SCOTUS ARGUMENTS — The Supreme Court scrutinized a state’s abortion ban for the first time since the 2022 Dobbs decision, and conservative justices at times joined liberals in asking tough questions about Idaho’s arguments.

The state argued Wednesday its hospitals shouldn’t be held to federal law — the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act — to provide abortions, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Josh Gerstein report. Here are some of their takeaways:

Two or three conservatives in play: Justice Amy Coney Barrett said she was taken aback by what she saw as Idaho backtracking from the assurances it gave that doctors wouldn’t be prosecuted for performing abortions. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh also seemed to struggle with some of the state’s arguments.

A slippery slope? Counsel for Idaho argued that if the court determines EMTALA requires hospitals to provide emergency abortions banned under state law, it would open the door to the federal government forcing other treatments that would violate state law. The Biden administration argued that letting states deny abortions under the law would allow hospitals to skirt other federal laws, like the prohibition against turning away indigent patients.

THE LATEST IN ARIZONA — The debate over the future of Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban is headed to the state’s Senate after the House repealed the prohibition the state’s Supreme Court brought back last month, Megan reports.

The chamber appears to have sufficient support to pass the bill, which is likely to assuage GOP concern about the impact of a near-total ban on the procedure in the battleground state on the party’s fate in the November election.

AROUND THE AGENCIES

THE REMAINS OF THE REGS — The Biden administration has been moving quickly to finalize a slew of health care rules to stymie Congress from overturning them, but it still has more on its to-do list.

The moves, which included a minimum nursing home staffing requirement, come as the administration closes in on a deadline under the Congressional Review Act allowing lawmakers to overturn certain rules finalized before an election.

What’s still to come: Two rules that expand nondiscrimination protections in health care for LGBTQ+ patients are expected to be finalized in the coming days, Chelsea reports.

The two rules, which left the Office of Management and Budget last week, concern discrimination against LGBTQ+ people in health care programs. One strengthens nondiscrimination protections in HHS-funded programs. The other reverses Trump-era changes that narrowed certain civil protections for gender identity and sexual orientation under a section of the Affordable Care Act.

Test rule: A long-awaited final rule to place laboratory-developed tests under greater regulatory scrutiny was also cleared by the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs this week and could be published in the Federal Register in the coming days.

Two other FDA regulations also passed through OIRA: a draft guidance laying out the FDA’s enforcement policy for tests during emergencies and an enforcement policy for in vitro diagnostics for an immediate public health response without a declared emergency.

WHAT MIGHT NOT MEET THE DEADLINE — A rule that would require insurers to comply with a federal law mandating that they provide mental health care in the same way they provide other medical care hasn’t yet reached OMB for review, making it less likely that it will be finalized by a late spring or summer deadline.

The Treasury Department has targeted June for final release but didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Additionally, the Drug Enforcement Administration hasn’t yet proposed regulations on prescribing controlled substances via telemedicine, meaning it’s exceedingly unlikely the rules will be finalized before the deadline. The DEA has said it aims to finish them by the fall. It appears doubtful the rules would be a target under the CRA, though. A DEA spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Menthol ban: It’s also unclear when the Biden administration will finalize a ban on menthol cigarettes. FDA Commissioner Robert Califf declined to offer a timeline in a House Appropriations Committee hearing last week.

Califf has urged allies outside the government to push the White House to ban the cigarettes, fearing President Joe Biden might abandon efforts to avoid backlash from Black voters.

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In Congress

BERNIE’S OZEMPIC INVESTIGATION — Senate HELP Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) launched an investigation Wednesday into Novo Nordisk over the prices the company charges for weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

“If the prices for these products are not substantially reduced, they have the potential to bankrupt Medicare, Medicaid and our entire health care system,” Sanders wrote to the company.

What he wants to know: Sanders asked the company whether it would “substantially” cut the list and net prices of the drugs and requested a bevy of pricing information, including related internal communications.

Zooming out: The move is the latest in Sanders’ crusade to lower prescription drug prices. He called other pharmaceutical CEOs before the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee earlier this year and insulin manufacturers and pharmacy benefit managers last year. Several major insulin manufacturers, including Novo Nordisk, pledged to significantly lower the list price of some older insulin drugs ahead of the hearing.

Novo Nordisk did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

FAUCI TIME — Former top infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci will testify on June 3 before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, the panel said Wednesday.

“Retirement from public service does not excuse Dr. Fauci from accountability,” Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) said in a statement. Fauci declined to comment.

Fauci’s first public testimony since retiring from public service will come after two days of closed-door testimony before the panel in January in which Republicans grilled him over Covid-19’s origins, while Democrats ripped Republicans for allegedly mischaracterizing his responses. Congress continues to probe the virus’ origins, and Republicans have targeted Fauci over the pandemic response.

Ranking member Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) in a statement called on GOP committee leaders to release the transcript of Fauci’s closed-door interview and called Republicans’ efforts a “fishing expedition.”

WHAT WE'RE READING

POLITICO’s Carmen Paun reports on Congress ignoring Biden’s request for fentanyl funding.

The Baltimore Banner reports on taxpayers putting close to $100 million into a Covid-19 glove factory that hasn’t produced a single glove.

The Wall Street Journal reports on a study finding health care mergers have driven prices higher.

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