US and China talked a lot this week

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Apr 05, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

Journalists film Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng (left) shows the way to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as they head to a dinner.

This week shows that leaders from both countries are ready to at least hear each other out, even if there’s little the U.S. and China see eye-to-eye on. | Pool photo by Andy Wong


With help from Phelim Kine, Maggie Miller, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman

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It’s a good sign for the U.S.-China relationship when Beijing starts complimenting Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN’s chopstick skills.

Washington and Beijing have been talking at the highest levels this week, a significant development in a tense relationship. See: President JOE BIDEN’s call with Chinese leader XI JINPING, Yellen’s visit to the country, and meetings of naval personnel from both countries.

The question will be how quickly (if at all) all that chumminess is reflected in actions by either country.

The naval meeting — called Military Maritime Consultative Agreement talks in Hawaii which were held from Tuesday to Thursday — is particularly notable, since it marks the first formal meeting of operational-level U.S. and Chinese naval personnel since 2021.

During the talks, 18 U.S. naval officers and 18 Chinese officers talked about recent incidents involving naval units from the two countries that raised safety concerns. The meeting was launched in 1998 as a way to mitigate the possibility of dangerous encounters between the two militaries in the Indo-Pacific, but they were suspended following then-House Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s trip to Taiwan in 2022.

The resumption of talks is positive for the U.S., but don’t get too excited yet, said BONNIE GLASER, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program.

“It's a good thing that after the Pelosi visit that … they're resuming them, but we shouldn't have high expectations for what's going to be achieved” in any future rounds of MMCA talks, she told NatSec Daily.

Relations have been frosty between Beijing and Washington (spy balloon, anyone?) over the past year, not to mention the joint patrols in the Indo-Pacific. But this week shows that leaders from both countries are ready to at least hear each other out, even if there’s little the U.S. and China see eye-to-eye on.

“The conversations are very important,” Glaser said. “You could cite specific examples in which the absence of regular communications lead China to misperceive our intentions, and I think that can lead to a crisis in and of itself.”

The calls today appear to build on Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN’s call with his Chinese counterpart Gen. LIU ZHENLI, as well as the visit by Chinese defense officials to the U.S. to meet with Pentagon officials in January. There are also plans for Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to soon speak with his counterpart Adm. DONG JUN.

Beijing sees a minor lessening in tensions, but recognizes the fragility of a relationship wracked by fundamental distrust — which a flurry of diplomatic outreach can’t remedy in one week of talks.

“The China-U.S. relationship is beginning to stabilize,” Xi said following his call with Biden, caveating that “the negative factors of the relationship have also been growing, and this requires attention from both sides.”

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The Inbox

ISRAEL FINDS ACCOUNTABILITY: Following Israel’s investigation into the World Central Kitchen strike that killed seven aid workers on Monday, the Israel Defense Force briefed the U.S. military's team on the ground in Israel on Thursday, a DOD official told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

The U.S. team then informed senior Pentagon leaders about the review’s conclusions. The IDF investigation “was swift, it was thorough,” the official said, noting that “this is a serious recognition on their part.”

"The Israelis aren’t trying to cover up, aren’t trying to paper over — they are owning their error, they are moving to hold people accountable,” the official said. After the White House’s condemnation of the strikes on Thursday, “it looks like message received.”

While the incident was “a tragic mistake,” the official acknowledged that the U.S. military has made its own share of errors.

“We've made our share in Afghanistan, we've had incidents where processes were either not followed or they were not adequate enough to prevent civilian casualties,” the official said.

The IDF fired two officers following the investigation, our own ŠEJLA AHMATOVIĆ reports. An internal probe revealed significant errors and protocol violations that led to multiple strikes on an aid convoy. The IDF admitted that it was a mistake and said the soldiers believed the vehicle was carrying Hamas militants, not aid workers.

“The investigation determined that a colonel had authorized the series of deadly drone strikes on the convoy based on one major’s observation — from grainy drone-camera footage — that someone in the convoy was armed. That observation turned out to be untrue, military officials said,” per The Associated Press’ JULIA FRANKEL.

Calls for an independent investigation have been growing. The food charity today demanded that an independent commission to investigate the killings be created because the IDF “cannot impartially investigate its own actions in Gaza,” it said in a statement today.

“Their apologies for the outrageous killing of our colleagues represent cold comfort,” ERIN GORE, CEO of WCK, said in the statement. “It’s cold comfort for the victims’ families and WCK’s global family.”

SPACE TALKS WITH RUSSIA: The Biden administration is in talks with Russia and allied nations to try and prevent Moscow from positioning an anti-satellite nuclear weapon in space, a senior Pentagon space official said today, our own MAGGIE MILLER and ERIN BANCO report.

American officials are using the United Nations and countries such as China and India to convince Moscow to back down from its plans to test launch its space weapon. Those conversations have accelerated in recent weeks following the public disclosure of Russia’s space developments, according to JOHN PLUMB, assistant secretary of defense for space policy.

Plumb said that while there is “no immediate threat” to Earth posed by the deployment by Russia of nuclear anti-satellite weapons, “we are engaging with allies and partners and with Russia, to convince them that this is not responsible.”

It marked the first time a Biden official had laid out publicly part of the administration’s approach in handling the situation.

WAIT AND SEE ABOUT ISRAEL AID: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said the U.S. is “looking to see” if Israel allows more aid into the Gaza Strip following new pressure from President JOE BIDEN on Thursday over the World Central Kitchen strike.

“The real test is results, and that’s what we’re looking to see in the coming days and the coming weeks,” Blinken told reporters in Brussels today, noting that one measure of Israel’s commitment is “the number of trucks that are actually getting in on a sustained basis.”

The Biden admin is also continuing to talk about the humanitarian situation in relation to Israel's plans for a potential invasion of the southern Gazan city of Rafah. In a virtual meeting with Israeli counterparts this week, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN made clear that more has to be done to help civilians.

“You’re going to be responsible for the third famine crisis of the 21st century. That is not something we can accept as partners,” Sullivan said, as a U.S. official recounted to our colleagues. “If you don’t have a proper plan for the day after, nothing will help you in dismantling Hamas. Not Rafah, not anything else.”

UKRAINE’S BIG STRIKES: Ukraine destroyed six Russian fighter bombers in an attack today on the Morovosk air base, about 217 miles from the frontlines, a Ukrainian law enforcement official familiar with the matter told our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA.

Ukraine conducted a large attack hitting Russia’s Rostov, Saratov, Kursk and Belgorod regions, the Russian defense ministry said on Telegram. Russian defense forces claimed to have shot down at least 44 drones over the Rostov region — where the air base is located — but didn’t reveal more details.

ARMENIA TALKS: European and U.S. officials are pledging new financial support for Armenia in the face of mounting tensions in the South Caucasus.

As our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports, European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN said the EU would allocate more than $290 million to support the South Caucasus country’s economy over the next four years. The landmark investment followed high-level talks between von der Leyen, SecState Blinken, USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER, E.U. foreign policy chief JOSEP BORRELL and Armenian Prime Minister NIKOL PASHINYAN.

The new package from Brussels comes as Armenia navigates ongoing territorial disputes with neighboring Azerbaijan and outrage from long-time ally Russia over its efforts to move closer to Europe and the United States.

The Biden administration requested $65 million in development assistance earlier this year for Armenia. It has also pledged aid for refugees from the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. But lawmakers want the State Department to make the release of Armenian prisoners held by Azerbaijan a precondition for future negotiations between the two Caucasus countries.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN, who has proudly represented the Granite State for the last 15 years.

“Oh, I’m really boring. What I like is Diet Coke,” Shaheen said — though there is absolutely nothing boring about that sweet nectar. As to where she likes to enjoy the carbonated bev, “when the weather's nice, if I can sit on my porch and look at the fields with my Diet Coke, I'm happy.”

A getaway to New Hampshire amid the chaos in Washington these days sounds intriguing. We just may be joining her soon.

Cheers, senator!

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil.

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ELECTION 2024

WHAT WOULD REAGAN DO? Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s top aide called on former President DONALD TRUMP to emulate RONALD REAGAN ahead of a major Russian spring offensive, our own JAMIE DETTMER reports.

In an interview with Jamie, ANDRIY YERMAK, Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff, said he couldn't believe Republicans would forget Reagan's Cold War crusade against Moscow's ‘evil empire’ and ignore Ukraine’s plight.

“I don't believe anybody who represents the party of Ronald Reagan will abandon Ukraine. Reagan understood the Soviet Union and Russia, and anyone who does will continue to support our fighters because they understand that dictators never stop voluntarily and have to be stopped,” he said.

Yermak’s comments come as European allies worry that a second Trump presidency could see U.S. military assistance to Ukraine dry up. It also comes as House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON faces pressure from his own party over Ukraine aid and runs up against a self-imposed deadline to put an aid package to a vote when Congress returns next week. Analysts say the package is desperately needed to bolster the beleaguered Ukrainian army ahead of an expected Russian offensive later this year.

Keystrokes

CHIPPING IN: The U.S. and European Union agreed today to extend a partnership to cooperate on identifying disruptions in the semiconductor field, focusing most on Chinese “legacy chips,” Reuters’ PHILIP BLENKINSOP reports.

For another three years, Washington and Brussels will share intelligence about “non-market” policies and practices which are prevalent in China, they argue. Beijing produces some 60 percent of legacy chips, which are found in cars, household appliances and medical devices.

CHINA’S ELECTION MEDDLING? Chinese-linked campaigns are increasingly using artificial intelligence to push false information on elections to voters in the U.S., Taiwan and elsewhere around the world, The Wall Street Journal’s DUSTIN VOLZ reports.

 

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The Complex

NORWAY’S INVESTMENT: The Norwegian government unveiled a massive 12-year defense funding proposal today, aimed at pumping money into the country’s industrial base and growing its armed forces.

“We need major investments in our forces, and 12 years will allow for a longer planning cycle and more predictability,” Norway’s deputy defense minister, ANNE MARIE AANERUD, told our own PAUL McLEARY (for Pros!).

The total investment over a dozen years will be $56 billion, Prime Minister JONAS GAHR STØRE said today. Norway, one of NATO’s founding members, will hit the alliance’s goal of spending 2 percent of its GDP on defense this year for the first time.

The plan contains four main areas for investment, HEATHER ARMENTROUT, the president of the U.S. arm of Norway’s Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, told Paul: high explosives, rocket engines, missiles and artillery ammunition. All are items that the U.S. and NATO allies are anxious to get as militaries wait for production to catch up to growing demand.

On the Hill

KAINE FRUSTRATED: Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) delivered a rare rebuke of the Biden administration's approach to Israel today, saying in a statement that Washington’s current position toward its ally is "not working," our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports.

He added that Israel's deadly attack on World Central Kitchen workers this week "crystallizes the frustration that is at a boiling point."

Current conditions in Gaza make it nearly impossible for NGOs and aid groups to do their jobs, Kaine said, causing him to question whether the U.S. can safely partner with those groups to deliver aid from a marine pier into Gaza.

BERNIE’S INFLUENCE: Less than a day after Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) appeared in a video endorsing Biden’s reelection campaign, the progressive firebrand called on the president to get tougher on Israel.

Asked what Biden's message to the Israeli leader should be following the strike on air workers, Sanders replied in the “Pod Save America” podcast today: "Mr. Netanyahu, I'm here to inform you that ... if thousands of trucks do not get in to start feeding starving people — all military aid will cease. Have a nice day."

Sanders has helped lead the push to condition military aid to Israel, and it appears that he has a direct line to the Oval Office. On Thursday night, the Vermonter appeared next to Biden in a video on the president’s Instagram and called on the public to reelect him.

It’s a sign that the Biden campaign understands Sanders’ sway over progressives, including progressive supporters and young folk who have expressed dismay with how the White House has handled the Israel-Gaza crisis. But Sanders is staying firm behind Biden, arguing that voting for Trump or a third-party candidate this fall would lead to worse outcomes in Israel

"I say to that young person: Your gut feeling is right," Sanders continued. "But all that I ask is, let's not make a horrible situation even worse. Trump will be worse on that issue, let alone every other issue."

Read: Mayorkas trial, foreign aid, bridge funding: Schumer outlines upcoming Senate agenda by Anthony

 

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Broadsides

IRAN PROMISES PUNISHMENT: Iran’s threats of retribution against Israel after a presumed Israeli air strike in Damascus killed top Iranian military officials aren’t stopping, The Associated Press’ AMIR VAHDAT reports.

At a funeral for the seven Revolutionary Guard members killed in last week’s airstrike in Damascus, the elite military unit’s commander Gen. HOSSEIN SALAMI vowed that Iran would “punish the Zionist regime,” adding “no enemy act against our holy system will go unanswered.”

Earlier this week, an airstrike against the Iranian consulate in Syria’s capital killed two top officials in Iran’s revolutionary guard. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike, Iran has blamed its longtime foe for the attack. U.S. officials have also described the attack as an Israeli strike.

OOPSIES: Israel’s top spy chief spent more than two decades in the shadows, only for a book he published on Amazon to reveal his identity through a digital trail that led to a Google account made in his name — YOSSI SARIEL, per The Guardian’s HARRY DAVIES and BETHAN McKERNAN.

Transitions

— Today is TODD BREASSEALE’s last day at the Defense Department leading the Office of Information Operations Policy and before that, as the DASD for Media. Breasseale will continue service in the Biden-Harris Administration as a senior adviser at the Department of Veterans Affairs on Monday.

STEVEN BENNETT has been tapped by the Council on Foreign Relations as their new executive vice president and chief administrative officer. Most recently he was a senior vice president at Syracuse University, and was vice president and chief operating officer at Brookings.

— The National Italian American Foundation tapped PAOLO MESSA as its executive vice president of international relations and strategic partnerships. He most recently served as chair of the board of directors of aerospace company Leonardo, and he’s currently a nonresident senior fellow at the Europe Center of the Atlantic Council.

DAVID MILESTONE as managing director of the Americas to Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. He most recently worked as a senior adviser at McKinsey.

ANDRÉS GARCÍA has been promoted to Partner in Dentons Global Advisors Latin American and Caribbean practice. Before joining Dentons, he was a senior adviser at FTI Consulting.

What to Read

WIDLORE MÉRANCOURT and AMANDA COLETTA, The Washington Post: When Haiti’s gangs shop for guns, the United States is their store

DANIEL BYMAN, Foreign Affairs: Stuck in Gaza

YAROSLAV TROFIMOV, The Wall Street Journal: Can Europe still count on America’s nuclear umbrella?

Monday Today

Georgetown University Center for Security Studies, 8 a.m.: NATO at 75: charting a new course

Association of Defense Communities, 9 a.m.: 2024 Defense Communities National Summit

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Previewing Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Washington

Taipei Economic and Cultural Representation Office, 10 a.m.: Foreign interference and information manipulation: Taiwan's experience

Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1 p.m.: Uyghur forced labor in our supply chains: what should we do about it?

Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, 3 p.m.: Mexico's first presidential debate

Wilson Center's Cold War International History Project, 4 p.m.: A book discussion on "Liberalism Against Itself: Cold War Intellectuals and the Making of Our Times"

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we wish would stop communicating with us.

We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who we love talking to.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats

To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more.

 
 

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