HIGH BAR — On Monday, Florida’s Supreme Court handed down two important abortion rulings. They upheld a 15-week ban that will trigger a 6-week ban supported by Gov. Ron DeSantis in 30 days. And they ruled that a ballot initiative that would establish a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability (around 24 weeks) could go before voters in November. Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in 2022, abortion rights have proved to be a winning issue at the polls for Democrats. Voters have decided to protect access to abortion in every ballot measure on the issue since the high court’s landmark decision — even in generally red states like Kansas and Kentucky. Democrats’ surprisingly strong performance in the 2022 midterms was also largely attributed to their abortion messaging; the party has since attempted to place abortion rights measures on the ballot across the map to both secure access and to juice Democratic turnout. But the Florida ballot measure isn’t a simple matter of winning a majority of the vote. For the constitutional amendment to pass, it needs 60 percent support — a threshold that pro-choice groups haven’t been able to reach in red states thus far. Still, the Biden campaign insists the abortion amendment will help put Florida in play. Despite the state’s recent shift to the right, the campaign contends the abortion amendment will give Democratic voters in the state a reason to turn out.. To get a better understanding of the political implications of the Florida ballot measure, Nightly spoke with health care reporter Alice Miranda Ollstein. This interview has been edited. Why are the Florida Supreme Court’s dual rulings so politically important? The justices in one fell swoop cleared the way for a 6-week abortion ban to take effect in May and gave Florida voters the opportunity to overturn that same ban in November. Each piece of that mixed ruling will have enormous political and practical consequences. The 6-week ban will cut off abortion access not only for millions of Floridians but also millions more people from surrounding states with even stricter bans who have depended on Florida clinics since Roe v. Wade was overturned. Living under the 6-week ban could galvanize public outrage against the GOP state officials who enacted it as well as against Donald Trump, who has repeatedly bragged about appointing the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe and made state bans like Florida’s possible. Even if Trump and other Republicans try to distance themselves from the law — Trump called it “too harsh” when Gov. Ron DeSantis was still challenging him for the GOP nomination — Democrats plan to relentlessly remind voters that they are responsible for these restrictions between now and November. The court also gave voters a way to channel that anger into action, greenlighting a statewide vote on a constitutional amendment that would restore abortion access to around 24 weeks of pregnancy — the standard under Roe. More than a million Floridians have already signed petitions to get the measure on the November ballot, and Democrats are hoping it will boost turnout and buoy their chances of winning back control of the red state. What’s the state of abortion rights ballot measures — how have they fared since Dobbs and what’s in store for potential future ballot measures? In every single state that has held an abortion-rights referendum since Roe fell, the pro-abortion rights side has prevailed — and it hasn’t been close. That’s been true in states as blue as California and as red as Kentucky. Some of those contests have overturned abortion bans, while others have shored up existing protections. Anti-abortion groups are now working to end that losing streak by trying to thwart the next wave of ballot measures via lawsuits (as in Florida), legislation, and pressure campaigns. But even in states where Republicans control the levers of power, like Florida, they so far have been unable to block the referendums from moving forward. Florida’s has a 60 percent threshold for approval, which is higher than most other states. Does that change the context? It’s a much higher bar to clear than the simple majority most states require. In fact, Republicans who oppose abortion rights have repeatedly tried to implement a 60 percent threshold for ballot measures in other states — including Ohio and South Dakota — as a means of defeating the abortion-rights efforts. Had they succeeded in Ohio it could have scuttled the 2023 referendum that overturned the state’s 6-week ban, which passed with 57 percent of the vote. Still, Florida progressives remain hopeful and Florida conservatives — some of whom attempted last year to raise the threshold even higher, to 67 percent — are nervous. In addition to the presidential race, Florida also has a Senate race in November. What impact might an abortion rights ballot measure have on the political landscape there? We’re in uncharted territory since this is the first presidential election held since the fall of Roe, and we only have a mixed bag of data from the abortion-rights referendums held during the midterms and in off-year elections. Those races showed that while the ballot measures are popular, they don’t necessarily boost turnout among Democrats or help Democratic candidates win. In Kentucky in 2022, for example, voters overwhelmingly opposed an anti-abortion ballot initiative but at the same time reelected the staunchly anti-abortion GOP Sen. Rand Paul. Hopeful Democrats point to Michigan, where a 2022 abortion-rights ballot measure helped the party hold the governor’s mansion and flip the legislature. But Republicans hold a significant advantage among registered voters in Florida, making it a heavier lift. What’s certain is that Democrats will try to tie Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) — and Republicans up and down the ballot — to the state’s ban, and argue that only a Democratic Senate will shield people from government interference in reproductive health care. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
| 
