| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Displaced Palestinians arrive in central Gaza after fleeing from the southern Gaza city of Rafah in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, on Thursday, May 9, 2024. | Abdel Kareem Hana/AP | With help from Alex Ward, John Sakellariadis, Ari Hawkins and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric President JOE BIDEN has been less than clear about when exactly an Israeli operation in Rafah would trigger his administration to cut off military assistance to Israel. After Biden said Israeli forces “haven’t gone in Rafah” during a CNN interview Wednesday night, he explained that population centers in the southern Gaza city should be off limits. What Israel has done so far, the president argued, hasn’t crossed his “red line.” “We're not walking away from Israel's security. We're walking away from Israel's ability to wage war” in more populated parts of Rafah, where many Palestinians are sheltering, Biden said. But satellite maps show that, since Monday night, the Israel Defense Forces has cleared suburbs in eastern Rafah and has secured the Philadelphi corridor on the border with Egypt south and western Rafah, the Center for a New American Security’s JONATHAN LORD told NatSec Daily. Aid groups in the area call the situation a slow-moving disaster. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today that a major operation would be recognizable by the movements of many forces and damage to civilian infrastructure “as opposed to more precise, more targeted” operations. Biden has repeatedly said Israel needs a clear plan to protect civilians if it wants to conduct a large-scale invasion of Rafah, and Israeli officials have said they have one. But that plan doesn’t address the White House’s concerns about what would be needed to deal with a potential massive flow of refugees to other parts of Gaza, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily. While Biden is urging Israel to avoid targeting population centers, “it's unclear to me what specifically the president wants to have happen,” Lord said, noting that the administration seems to still want the destruction of Hamas and the return of hostages. “It's hard to see how the lack of clarity around the policy, coupled with the president's recent public comments, works in service of those goals,” he added. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said in a video today: “If Israel needs to stand alone, it will stand alone.” Biden’s comments also infuriated Republican lawmakers who believe the administration’s pause on some weapons to Israel, unveiled this week, will harm Israel — and could make the Rafah operation even deadlier. Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) called for Biden to be impeached. The administration is cutting off sales of kits for the “dumb” bombs, which make them precise weapons. That move will “have the exact opposite effect of what the administration is trying to do,” Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told a small group of reporters in his office today. Asked by NatSec Daily what Republicans could do if Biden puts more holds on assistance to Israel, Risch was blunt. “There’s nothing we could do.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security® vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn more. | | | | | HOSTAGE TALKS PAUSED: Talks for a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas have paused — in part because of the ongoing fighting in Rafah, two people familiar with the negotiations told our own ERIN BANCO. Hamas is still willing to negotiate a deal but has largely stepped back from the table because of Israel’s operation in the city, the people said. They stressed that this does not mean talks have broken down completely. Hamas has told Doha that it is willing to keep negotiating. While CIA Director BILL BURNS — who has been deeply involved in the talks — headed back to Washington today f, “his departure does not connote the end of the current round of negotiations,” Kirby also told reporters. “We're going to stay engaged in the hopes that we might be able to land something.” NOT-SO-SENIOR MOMENT? The White House pushed back on Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s comment (which our Playbook pals scooped) that Biden was having a “senior moment” during his CNN interview — saying the president meant every word. As our own JONATHAN LEMIRE and Alex report, the White House said Biden could finally threaten Israel ahead of the possible invasion because Hamas has been significantly degraded. Biden administration officials also said his antipathy toward a large-scale Rafah invasion has been consistent for months, and he now has the space to withhold bombs and artillery because Hamas doesn’t pose as big a threat. “The picture of Hamas today is not what it was six months ago, and is a result of the pressure that the Israelis have put on it,” Kirby also told reporters. The decision not to send weapons Israel could use to flatten Rafah was not a case of the president freelancing, aides said, but a strategy meant to push Netanyahu off the course of ordering troops into the city’s most populated areas. IRAN’S NUCLEAR THREAT: A top Iranian adviser warned today that Tehran will change its nuclear posture if the country’s existence is threatened, raising fresh concerns about what Iran says is a peaceful program, Reuters reports. Iran has always said it doesn’t intend to build nuclear weapons, but nuclear watchdogs have recently raised the alarm that Iran could be closer to obtaining such a weapon than ever before. Renewed concerns followed the recent tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel, which accompanied fears of a wider war breaking out in the region. “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran's existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” KAMAL KHARRAZI, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI, told state-run media. STILL STRIKING OIL: Ukraine's military struck two oil depots in Russia's southern Krasnodar region, causing huge fires, Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH reports. The oil depots were used as “transshipment points” to supply fuel to Russian forces in Crimea, a person in Ukrainian intelligence told the outlet. The latest attack follows warnings from top U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, for Ukraine to avoid striking oil depots. Ukraine has rebuked the calls, arguing that its necessary to strike supplies that help the Kremlin’s troops in their invasion. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — WHAT THE HACK: Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) wants answers from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency about a pair of recent hacks that affected federal networks and involved Microsoft computing services, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS writes in. In a letter to CISA Director JEN EASTERLY on Tuesday, Scott argues those hacks — which have been attributed to Russia and China — amount to a “trend of cybersecurity failures” within the government. He also demands that the agency outline what it is doing to ensure that IT vendors like Microsoft can still be trusted. “I am disturbed that companies which contract with the federal government to perform key, extremely sensitive services continue to be susceptible to hacks from foreign actors,” Scott writes. CISA did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but it has taken action in response to both incidents. Last month it issued an advisory to help agencies defend against the Russian hackers, and it issued a report calling on Microsoft to up its security in response to the Chinese breach.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | WE’RE DIFFERENT: British Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON made it clear that the U.K. won't pledge to halt arms exports to Israel if it launches a major invasion in Rafah, our own DAN BLOOM reports. Speaking after an address in London today, Cameron said there is a “very fundamental difference” between arms shipments from the U.S. and the U.K., where the government grants individual licenses to companies wanting to export arms overseas. “The U.S. is a massive state supplier for weapons to Israel," he said. "We do not have a U.K. government supply of weapons to Israel. We have a number of licenses, and I think our defense exports to Israel are responsible for significantly less than one percent of their total. That is a big difference.”
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — PUSH AGAINST PALESTINE: Sen. Risch introduced a bill alongside 24 Republican senators that would cause the U.S. to cut off assistance to the United Nations if it gives more rights and privileges to the Palestinian Authority. It comes a day before a vote that pushes the U.N. toward recognizing Palestinian statehood. In a statement, Risch called the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization “deeply flawed, plagued by corruption” which “incite terrorism through the egregious ‘pay for slay’ program.” The PLO shouldn’t have a voice at the United Nations, he added. The No Official Palestine Entry (NOPE) Act would “ensure taxpayer dollars are not used to give the PLO credibility,” Risch said. While the bill has broad Republican backing, it’s unclear how many Democrats would support the move. LUKEWARM ON PALESTINIAN REFUGEES: Electorally vulnerable Senate Democrats are in a tricky position over Biden administration plans to allow Palestinian refugees into the United States, our own URSULA PERANO and BURGESS EVERETT report. The idea of allowing Palestinian refugees into the U.S. blends a couple of political problem points for Democrats. It touches on immigration, a subject Republicans regularly hammer their opponents on, and it could also be seen as a referendum on Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza, where high civilian casualties have sent many fleeing for refuge. “I’ve been clear that allowing anyone to enter the country without being properly vetted and going through a legal process undermines our national security,” said Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.). “And that neighboring countries in the region including Egypt and Jordan should play a leading role in taking in refugees.” And Sen. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) said the White House and Biden’s administration should keep its focus on a bigger prize: “The administration should be focused on reaching an agreement that ends the fighting, frees the hostages, and gets much-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza.”
| | REMEMBERING SHIREEN: Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) criticized the Biden administration today for not pushing harder for an independent investigation into Palestinian-American journalist SHIREEN ABU AKLEH’s death. Two years ago, Abu Akleh was shot while reporting in the West Bank. Israel said she was likely killed by an Israeli soldier, but no one was punished for her death. The U.S. said the origin of the bullet couldn’t be determined and the shooting was most likely unintentional. The U.S. “should devote similar energy” in getting answers for Abu Akleh's death as they dedicate to securing the release of detained journalists, such as EVAN GERSHKOVICH, Van Hollen said in a video message delivered at an Arab Center Washington D.C. event honoring her. COMMERCE HITS AT BALLOONS: The Biden administration placed 37 Chinese entities on to a restricted trade list today, including some that supported China's spy balloon operation, our own ARI HAWKINS writes in. The crackdown also targets China Electronics Technology Group, which state media has described as a top military equipment supplier. The company faces restriction because of its alleged role in funneling U.S. technology to support China’s quantum technology endeavors, mounting “serious” concerns for U.S. national security, according to the text. OUT OF ARMENIA: Hundreds of Russian soldiers will stand down from their positions along Armenia’s borders, the Kremlin confirmed today, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports. Read: In Victory Day speech, Putin accuses West of ‘distorting history’ by our own KOEN VERHELST
| | | | JOIN 5/22 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF TAXATION: With Trump-era tax breaks set to expire in 2025, whoever wins control of Congress, and the White House will have the ability to revamp the tax code and with it reshape the landscape for business and social policy. Join POLITICO on May 22 for an exploration of what is at stake in the November elections with our panel dissecting the ways presidential candidates and congressional leaders are proposing to reshape our tax rates and incentives. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | — Ukrainian agriculture minister MYKOLA SOLSKYI and Deputy PM and Infrastructure Minister OLEKSANDR KUBRAKOV were formally ousted today. Solskyi had been in the cabinet of Ukrainian Prime Minister DENIS SHMYHAL since 2022 while Kubrakov was in government since 2021. On a related note, Ukraine appointed former army chief VALERIY ZALUZHNY as Kyiv's ambassador to the U.K. today. — Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. PAUL LEMKE is now CEO of Reston-based CSG USA, a division of the global industrial and technology holding company CSG. He most recently was managing partner of the consulting firm Bridge2Growth LLC.
| | — EMMA BROWN, CARL CHURCHILL, CAMILLE BRESSANGE and CARRIE KELLER-LYNN, The Wall Street Journal: Israel’s advance toward Rafah, shown in maps — SAVANNA SLAUGHTER, C4ADS: Faulty transmission: the Myanmar junta’s reliance on global military truck supply chains — Editorial board, Bloomberg: U.S. should let allies help with ship shortage
| | | |   | | | | | — The Air and Space Forces Association, 10 a.m.: Discussion with Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force JOHN BENTIVEGNA The United States Institute of Peace, 2:30 p.m.: Virtual annual African Diplomats' seminar Politics and Prose Bookstore, 7 p.m.: Book discussion on “Look Away: A True Story of Murders, Bombings, and a Far-Right Campaign to Rid Germany of Immigrants” Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is constantly having senior moments. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who means everything he says.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security® vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
