It’s the economy, stupid

Your afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State
May 02, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook PM

By Melanie Mason

ATTENTION SF AND SILICON VALLEY: We’re hosting an event on AI policy and politics at Manny’s in San Francisco’s Mission district. POLITICO’s senior California politics and policy reporter Jeremy B. White will interview state Sen. Scott Wiener, a leading lawmaker on AI regulation, about California’s role in shaping the industry. Bring your own tough questions to ask, starting at 7:30 p.m. — get your tickets here.

Shown are stickers in Spanish that say He Votado Hoy, or I Voted Today.

Spanish language voter stickers | Matt Rourke/AP Photo

WINNING THE LATINO VOTE: Democrats are increasingly fretting about where they stand with Latino voters. A new poll shows the party is maintaining its edge with this crucial bloc of voters — but that may not fully ease Dems’ heartburn when it comes to relying on them in November.

Latino voters in California back President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump by more than 20 points, and prefer Rep. Adam Schiff over his Senate rival Steve Garvey by nearly 30 points, according to the poll by the Latino Community Foundation.

The poll, which also surveyed the views of registered Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada, reveals that pocketbook issues — including inflation, jobs and housing costs — are top of mind.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, 43 percent of California respondents say housing and rent are the biggest burden when it comes to affordability issues — the highest proportion of respondents in all three states.

While roughly a quarter of those surveyed blame Biden for the high cost of living in the country, more voters blame corporations for raising prices.

California respondents also give an edge to Democrats in House races by a 55-29 margin. Democrats will need a strong showing among Latinos in California’s battleground congressional races if they hope to take back the House.

Latino voters overwhelmingly back more progressive policies — such as action on climate change, supporting abortion rights and canceling student debt for people who make less than $125,000 — but head-to-head match-ups between Democrats and Republicans show narrower, albeit still double-digit, margins.

A bigger warning sign for Democrats: Just 37 percent of California Latino voters say the country is on the right trajectory, while 55 percent say it’s heading on the wrong track. That’s a more pessimistic outlook compared to Latinos in both Arizona and Nevada.

IT’S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to sgtaylor@politico.com.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

GET THEM TO THE POLLS: Eight weeks and a photo-finish later, former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo and Assemblymember Evan Low are headed for the general election to replace outbound Rep. Anna Eshoo.

Now, the name of the game is turnout.

Liccardo claimed the top spot in the all-Democratic primary to represent Silicon Valley with 21.1 percent of the vote, while Low grabbed second with 16.6 percent. That means the pair will now duke it out over the more than 60 percent of voters who went for another candidate — plus those who didn’t vote in the primary.

“That means Liccardo has to gain 30 points to win and Evan Low has to gain 35 points to win. They are so, so close,” Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. told Playbook.

And, as Mitchell points out, Low is popular with younger voters. They’re more likely to vote in the general election, creating a near-equal playing field between the two after second runner-up Joe Simitian was axed from the race by five votes following a recount.

“When you look at how the electorate changes going into the general, Liccardo might have been better situated against Simitian,” he added.

The pair took the gloves off during the recount — which Low suspects Liccardo orchestrated and Liccardo said Low tried to “undermine” — but neither weighed in on the general when asked today.

“Six months is a long time,” Mitchell said. “Six months ago Kevin McCarthy was speaker and George Santos was a member of Congress in good standing.” — Sarah Grace Taylor

 

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ON THE BEATS

A boy waves a Palestinian flag at an encampment on the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) campus.

A boy waves a Palestinian flag at an encampment on the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) campus Thursday, April 25, 2024, in Los Angeles. | Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

ANOTHER UCLA PROBE?: Assemblymember Rick Zbur has asked for a federal investigation into UCLA over alleged violations of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of ethnicity and ancestry. His written request to the U.S. Department of Education described accounts of one Jewish student being assaulted and others being prevented by pro-Palestinian demonstrators from moving freely throughout the campus.

The letter was sent April 30, shortly before counter-protesters at UCLA went on to beat pro-Palestinian protesters with sticks, stomp on them and launch fireworks into their encampment — drawing intense scrutiny from officials, including Zbur.

The Education Department’s civil rights arm had already in December opened a Title VI investigation into the school. Zbur is seeking a probe into incidents that have happened since then in connection with the now-dismantled encampment, according to his office. — Blake Jones

REVVING UP: The California Legislative Analyst's Office today increased its forecast of state revenue by $5 billion as the stock market has rallied and income tax collections have partially rebounded.

The updated projection is positive news for the state’s historic budget deficit and is based on better-than-expected income tax numbers from April. But the nonpartisan LAO still estimates revenue will fall $19 billion short of the January estimates that the Department of Finance used to calculate a $38 billion deficit.  

Pro subscribers can read more here. — Blake Jones

 

GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.

 
 
WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

— UCLA’s police department asked for help from other campuses days before violence broke out at a protest camp. Then it canceled its request. (Los Angeles Times)ax

— Housing in California is even less affordable than people may think, according to a new UC Berkeley study. (KQED)

— Two of the top 10 worst American cities to drive in are in the Bay Area. (Forbes)

AROUND THE STATE

— Replit, an AI company valued at over $1 billion, is moving its headquarters from San Francisco to the more “livable” Foster City. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— The DA’s lawsuit against Sacramento over homeless camps could be tossed. (Sacramento Bee)

— LA Mayor Karen Bass’ and Rep. Adam Schiff’s recent break-ins are raising questions about public safety in California — and could spell trouble for swing district Democrats in November. (Los Angeles Times)

 

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