SCIENCE VS. SCIENCE — Everywhere you turn in a heated debate over salmon farming on British Columbia's coast, stakeholders claim to be on the side of science. Fish farmers insist their industry, which has given hope to their communities in the form of economic prosperity, poses minimal risk to wild salmon. Their opponents are certain open-net pens are too big a risk to wild stocks and threatening other jobs in sportfishing and tourism. — The stakes: The future of the farms is on Cabinet's agenda. It's the latest flashpoint following a 2019 Liberal campaign promise to "transition from open net pen salmon farming in coastal waters to closed containment systems by 2025." Dozens of Cabinet-approved farm licences expire at the end of June. Fisheries Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER has been clear on one point: Farms won't close in 2025. As Playbook has reported, the fate of the pens has torn open rifts between Liberals, First Nations and lobby groups in Ottawa. A government that claims to make evidence-based policy is caught in the middle: Whose science should they believe? — Here's a twist: Neither side gives rave reviews to the bureaucrats at Fisheries and Oceans Canada, the federal department known as DFO that regulates aquaculture and works to conserve wild salmon populations — an awkward conflict in the eyes of many. DFO is also a major gatherer of fish data that feeds policy makers. TONY ALLARD, the chair of Wild Salmon Forever & Wild First, penned a Hill Times op-ed this week that slammed the department as a captured regulator beholden to industry. — Another twist: A federal watchdog is investigating the department for "attempting to silence scientists through reprimands, to dissuade them from communicating with the media and the public about their research.” The probe, reported by the Globe and Mail earlier this month, followed a request from Allard. — Falling stocks: The decline of wild salmon in Canadian waters is likely due to a deadly combination of factors that include climate change and illegal fishing. Fish farms typically crack the list of active threats. But the data isn't always conclusive for either side of the debate. Stakeholders emphasize different words in the same findings. Two examples: → Data point 1: The Pacific Salmon Foundation's Salmon Health Program has published research on the impact of pathogens that could emanate from fish farms. Here’s the foundation on the state of play: "In the scientific community, there is … a strong belief that disease may be a significant factor in salmon mortality, but not enough is known about what disease agents might affect Pacific salmon in their natural habitats." → Data point 2: The commissioner of a public inquiry into Fraser River fish stocks, BRUCE COHEN, published a three-volume report in 2012. Wild salmon advocates point to this quote: "I therefore conclude that the potential harm posed to Fraser River sockeye salmon from salmon farms is serious or irreversible." Cohen also, though, acknowledged several other major forces at play. — Evidence versus probability: It's hard to find a smoking gun in salmon decline. KILIAN STEHFEST, a marine conservation specialist at the David Suzuki Foundation, tells Playbook that pathogens are likelier near active fish farms, and salmon are likelier to get sick if they swim near pathogens. Those facts, he says, are clear in the evidence. But observing the large-scale prevalence of infected wild salmon, or infected anything in something as vast as an ocean, is tremendously challenging on a wide scale. That's why scientists rely on modeling, Stehfest says. Which comes with its own challenges: "It's very human to want a clear answer. We want science to tell us this is right, this is wrong, this is the truth, or these are the facts," he says. "When science isn't able to give you that, and you're dealing with that more murky concept of probabilities and risk, it's really hard to have that conversation." — Good luck, Cabinet: In this science versus science slugfest, almost no outcome will satisfy everybody — or even anybody. See you at the next flashpoint. | 
