| | | | |  | | By Gavin Bade | | Presented by |  | | | |  Donald Trump and Joe Biden face off during a presidential debate on Sept. 29, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. | Morry Gash/Getty Images | PAINTED INTO A CORNER — Since he ran for president in 2020, President Joe Biden and his team have promised to rethink the tariffs that his predecessor imposed on China. Now, after years of debate and delay, they may have little choice but to double down on Trump’s approach. Trump, you’ll remember, imposed tariffs on more than $300 billion worth of imports from China back in 2018. Biden came to office promising to replace that brute-force approach with a more nuanced one. “Everybody thought when Biden came in he was going to try to strike a grand bargain with the Chinese and repeal the [tariffs] or do it piecemeal,” said one seasoned Washington trade lawyer, granted anonymity to speak freely about the issue. But despite “industries lined up outside the White House [pressing for relief], we haven’t seen any movement.” It’s not for lack of trying. Back in 2021, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan wanted to reshape Trump’s tariffs — cutting duties on thousands of consumer products, but increasing them on high-tech industries prized by Beijing, like clean energy and semiconductors. But that plan was derailed by internal opposition — a common theme in this debate. U.S. trade chief Katherine Tai insisted on talking with the Chinese first, not wanting to “inflame” the already tense commercial relationship. And so the plan stalled. Then came the inflation debate. As prices climbed throughout 2022, officials at Treasury and Commerce — along with major U.S. importers — pushed Biden hard to cut tariffs on the consumer products. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo tried to get ahead of the issue, telling lawmakers it was “conceivable” that Biden would cut tariffs. A senior NSC official — who, apparently, didn’t know he was on-the-record — said that it made sense to cut tariffs on consumer goods like bicycles, even if high-tech duties were increased. Many expected a decision that summer. But the tariff relief arguments ran into the quicksand that is the Biden administration’s interagency review process. Tai pushed back hard, arguing that lifting tariffs would not reduce inflation, and would displease Biden’s labor union allies and allow Republicans to paint him as soft on Beijing. Biden subsequently told reporters that “further discussions” were needed on the tariffs, and the decision was stalled once again. Defense issues then overshadowed trade relations with China. Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised to stop the relationship from deteriorating further when they met on the sidelines of the G-20 conference in November 2022, all but freezing any action on tariffs. A commercial detente looked possible in early 2023, with the Chinese mounting a charm offensive in Washington to get tariffs removed and spark investment in a fragile economy just emerging from Covid lockdowns. But then their spy balloon floated across the continental U.S., scrambling the relationship for months. Biden’s team repaired the relationship enough for Xi to travel to San Francisco last fall — a diplomatic priority for the White House since its inception. But that trip required stability in the trans-Pacific relationship, something that a tariff reshuffle would have derailed, and so the issue sat idle for months more. Now, it’s 2024, an election year, and the administration appears close to a decision. Biden last month called for higher tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum in a Pittsburgh speech to steelworkers, and Tai hinted at higher tariffs on electric vehicles in a Capitol Hill appearance, promising the entire review would be done very soon. Yet still, debate rages within the administration. Some staffers wanted to announce the conclusion of the entire tariff review during Biden’s Pittsburgh visit, said one official with knowledge of the planning, but they couldn’t get agreement in time. The administration is “still tied up in knots” over what to do, particularly over whether to cut any tariffs as they increase duties on steel, electric vehicles, and other clean energy components, said that official, granted anonymity to discuss confidential policy planning. Now, impatient lawmakers are trying to make the decision for Biden. Last week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer joined a group of Midwestern Senate Democrats urging Biden to raise tariffs on China — and not cut any duties in return. “Any reduction” in the tariffs, they wrote, “allows China to gain a competitive advantage over hardworking Americans.” The implicit message: Cutting tariffs would give Trump an opening to attack you — and the at-risk Senate Democrats — in swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That leaves Biden with little choice as the clock ticks down to November. The president has already shown “a lot of deference” to the Midwestern Senate Democrats on trade issues like the U.S. Steel merger and abandoning the trade elements of his Indo-Pacific economic pact last year. Defying them on this — an even bigger decision, even closer to the election — is all unthinkable in a year when their electoral fates will be inextricably linked to Biden. And with Trump promising even higher tariffs – up to 60 percent on China, and 10 percent on all other nations – there’s little political space for Biden to backslide. While there are still some in the administration “who want to see tariff reductions,” said one former Biden official familiar with talks, that view “is being outweighed” by political considerations. The administration has “painted itself into a corner,” agreed one prominent D.C. trade lobbyist, who said the outcome of the tariff review was all but assured following the Senate letter. Now, all that’s left to do is wait for the White House to announce it. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at gbade@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GavinBade.
| | | | A message from eBay: Small businesses rely on trust. That’s why eBay has invested billions into building a trusted online marketplace for everyone. The result? Millions of flourishing businesses and entrepreneurs thrive on eBay. And 43% of sellers are in small towns and rural communities. See how the original find-anything marketplace is America’s go-to small-business platform. | | | | | ON HOLD — The Trump trial was once again paused, as has become customary on Wednesdays throughout the trial. DELAY TACTICS — A Georgia appeals court today delayed Donald Trump’s criminal case in the state, agreeing to hear an appeal from the former president that may foreclose a trial taking place this year. For Trump, it’s the latest in a spate of good legal news, coming less than 24 hours after U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon indefinitely postponed his federal trial in Florida on charges of hoarding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate after leaving office. In the Georgia case, Trump and more than a dozen Republican allies are accused of a racketeering conspiracy to subvert Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state. There is no set trial date, and proceedings were derailed in recent months over allegations that the lead prosecutor, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, had committed ethical lapses stemming from a romantic relationship with a special prosecutor she hired. After the trial judge, Scott McAfee, rejected a bid to kick Willis off the case, Trump and his co-defendants sought permission to appeal that ruling. In a terse order today, a Georgia appeals court granted the request to hear the appeal.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | — Biden administration set to pitch new asylum changes: The Biden administration will propose new changes to the asylum system on Thursday, four people familiar with the matter told POLITICO. The forthcoming changes will address the stage at which migrants can be found ineligible to apply for and receive asylum. Under the current system, eligibility is determined based on a number of factors during the interview stage — the administration is set to propose applying these standards during the initial screening stage. That change would effectively allow the U.S. to expedite the expulsion of migrants whom officials see as potentially ineligible to stay in the country due to national security or public safety risks. — Austin confirms U.S. pausing bomb shipments to Israel, but commitment still ‘ironclad’: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told senators today that the U.S. has paused a shipment of bombs to Israel due to Washington’s concerns over a looming invasion of Rafah, but stressed that no final decision has been made. Testifying on Capitol Hill, the Pentagon chief argued that the Biden administration’s commitment to Israeli security is still “ironclad” despite the holdup. — Greene officially starts the clock on vote to terminate Johnson: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has officially started the clock on her doomed effort to hold a referendum on Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership. The Georgia firebrand brought up the so-called motion to vacate as privileged, meaning GOP leadership is required to bring it up for a floor vote within two legislative days. It’s the second attempt to depose a speaker within seven months.
| | RFK JR’S BRAIN-EATING PARASITE — In 2010, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was experiencing memory loss and mental fogginess so severe that a friend grew concerned he might have a brain tumor. Kennedy said he consulted several of the country’s top neurologists, many of whom had either treated or spoken to his uncle, Senator Edward M. Kennedy, before his death the previous year of brain cancer. Several doctors noticed a dark spot on the younger Kennedy’s brain scans and concluded that he had a tumor, he said in a 2012 deposition reviewed by The New York Times. Kennedy was immediately scheduled for a procedure at Duke University Medical Center by the same surgeon who had operated on his uncle, he said. While packing for the trip, he said, he received a call from a doctor at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital who had a different opinion: Kennedy, he believed, had a dead parasite in his head. The doctor believed that the abnormality seen on his scans “was caused by a worm that got into my brain and ate a portion of it and then died,” Kennedy said in the deposition. JERSEY SHORE TRUMP-FEST — On a bitterly cold January day in 2020, former President Donald Trump packed the Wildwood Convention Center with supporters at one of his biggest rallies of the last presidential campaign, writes the Philadelphia Inquirer. Four years later, Wildwood Mayor Ernie Troiano Jr. learned Trump wanted a reprise but the old venue was unavailable. He offered another idea: “I said, well, we’ve got a beach,” Troiano said. And thus was planned what is poised to be a big, boisterous, seaside Trump-fest at the Jersey Shore this weekend in a town that draws visitors from across the Garden State and its swing state neighbor, Pennsylvania, six months before a high-stakes rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden. FREEDOMWORKS RIP — FreedomWorks, the once-swaggering conservative organization that helped turn tea party protesters into a national political force, is shutting down, according to its president, a casualty of the ideological split in a Republican Party dominated by former President Donald Trump. “We’re dissolved,” said the group’s president, Adam Brandon. “It’s effective immediately.” FreedomWorks’ board of directors voted unanimously on Tuesday to dissolve the organization, Brandon said. The development brings to a close a period of turmoil for the organization. FreedomWorks laid off 40 percent of its staff in March of 2023, and as a result of a drop in fundraising, its total revenue has declined by roughly half, to about $8 million, since 2022. In an exclusive interview with POLITICO Magazine, Brandon said the decision to shut down was driven by the ideological upheaval of the Trump era.
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Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić (right) walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) during a welcome ceremony in Belgrade today. | Elvis Barukcic/AFP via Getty Images | LOVE LETTER — Xi Jinping’s arrival in Belgrade on the second leg of his European tour ignited unparalleled enthusiasm in Serbia, a nation often regarded as one of China’s staunchest allies in Europe. “I told him that as the leader of a great power he will be met with respect all over the world, but the reverence and love he encounters in our Serbia will not be found anywhere else,” President Aleksandar Vučić said after a welcoming ceremony in front of Palata Srbije, a lavish socialist-era compound often used for state visits. Vučić also stressed that, when it comes to cooperation with Beijing, “the sky is the limit.” Serbia stands out as an early adopter of Chinese investments in Europe, such as the construction of the Pupin Bridge in 2013. Since then, investment initiatives have surged, including extensive infrastructure projects such as highways, the Smederevo Ironworks and the Zijin Mining Basin. However, this expansion has come at a cost to Serbia, which has amassed a debt burden of around €3.7 ($3.98) billion, due to the common practice of Chinese investments being bundled into loan schemes. It is also the sole European nation to acquire Chinese HQ-22 “Hong Qi” or Red Flag air defense systems, which has raised eyebrows due to the difficulty of integrating them into its European weapons systems. ASSET SEIZURE — The EU approved a plan to use the profits generated by investing frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine. Ambassadors meeting in Brussels today gave the go-ahead after Belgium signaled a climbdown on the way it treats tax revenue on the cash — the last major obstacle to deal. The profits generated by investing Russia’s assets immobilized in Belgium— where a large part of the assets frozen in Europe are kept — are worth between €2.5 ($2.69) billion and €3 ($3.22) billion per year. Ninety percent of the profits will be used to buy weapons, while the remaining 10 percent will go towards non-military aid. The agreement paves the way for the EU to send the money to the war-torn country in July.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | | | Less than 17 percent The percentage that’s been spent of the $1.1 trillion from four Biden-era laws — the 2021 pandemic relief package, known as the American Rescue Plan; the bipartisan infrastructure law; the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act; and the Inflation Reduction Act — that provide for direct investments on climate, energy and infrastructure. | | | | IN A LABYRINTH — Want to ease your anxiety? Take a walk in a labyrinth. One of the oldest ways to quiet your mind and align your mind and your body, labyrinths are now becoming more popular yet again as a way to engender a sense of calm. Just don’t confuse them with mazes; labyrinths have walkable patterns on the ground, but aren’t built to confuse the walker; they have unobstructed paths to and from their center. Across the world, both older labyrinths (25 percent of cathedrals built in the Middle Ages included a labyrinth) and newly built ones are attracting visitors trying to get something from their powers. Norman Miller reports for the BBC.
| | | |  On this date in 1978: Neysa Moskowitz (left) walks with an unidentified escort to the Brooklyn Supreme Court for the start of the “Son of Sam” murder trial. David Berkowitz, the “Son of Sam” killer, ultimately pled guilty to the murder of Stacy Moskowitz, Ms. Moskowitz’s daughter, during a year-long random murder spree. | Henry Griffin/AP | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
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