| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  It’s Bafel Talabani's first trip to Washington as the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan — a center-left political party inspired by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. | Hadi Mizban/AP | With help from Erin Banco, Phelim Kine, Maggie Miller, Nahal Toosi, Paul McLeary, Alex Ward and Steven Overly Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric BAFEL TALABANI didn’t seem relaxed in his sprawling Willard InterContinental Hotel suite until he drew short cigarette puffs and sipped sugar-free Redbull. He finds peace at the end of a long week by working out and unloading at the shooting range — then diligently cleaning his guns. It’s his first trip to Washington as the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan — a center-left political party inspired by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — for a whirlwind of meetings with top Biden administration officials and lawmakers touching on counterterrorism in the Middle East and the Israel-Gaza war. The eldest son of the late prominent politician JALAL TALABANI, Bafel maintains close ties with the U.S. while cultivating friendly relations with some of its adversaries. Weeks ago, he was shaking hands with Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV, grinning. Russia has invested in Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil sector, a Kurdish-majority autonomous region in northern Iraq. Talabani has played a main role in the recent development of and policy negotiations around the region’s oil and gas reserves. Top U.S. officials “trust me,” he told NatSec Daily, crediting his fighting alongside U.S. special operations to combat ISIS over three decades. “I'm seen as an honest broker … That puts me in a unique position where I can deconflict certain things” that others can’t. In recent years, his power struggle with his cousin LAHUR TALABANI has made news — and this visit is likely as much to elicit personal support from the U.S. as it is to garner it for his region. Our conversation (edited for clarity and brevity) touched on the main issues playing out in the Middle East — and how they affect Washington. Here are our biggest takeaways: What brings you to the U.S.? What do you think about pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq? What I'm trying to avoid is a complete disengagement from Iraq … I'm trying to say that you don't need to be in Iraq with thousands of troops. We can defend ourselves and we can do the brunt of the fighting … and we're going to need help for that. We're going to need assistance, we're going to need equipment, but not as much as people think. We should be talking about changing the footprint and changing the mission. I do agree there is absolutely no need for a coalition of dozens of countries. I think what Iraq should do — and Iraq is doing — is look to more bilateral agreements with the United States. What’s your assessment of how ISIS is doing right now? Our operations against ISIS with the Americans and with the Iraqi forces are increasing in frequency. Just a few months ago, we would do one operation per week. Now, we're doing three or four per week. There is still a threat from ISIS — we should not take our eyes off this ball at all … we should learn from history. Let’s not keep making the same damn mistakes. Do you see American troops in the Middle East coming under threat again? A lot depends on what happens in Gaza. I don't see any immediate threat to U.S. troops. But you know, things could change. This Rafah stuff is really concerning. Has the war in Gaza affected your work? What are the global implications of the war? Massively, colossally. What the United States and the Western allies need to be aware of is that an entire generation of Arabs and Muslims are growing to be untrusting and have a hatred toward the West. This is happening even in really West-friendly places like Kurdistan — there is a massive shift in public opinion … it will take generations to erase this newfound opinion of the West. The principle of destroying Hamas is false. It’s impossible … I think Hamas, or whatever comes after Hamas, the membership of this organization will be more.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | ISRAEL WON’T GET IN TROUBLE: The Biden administration denied that it's burying a soon-to-be-released report that doesn’t conclude that Israel has violated U.S. and international humanitarian law. The report is expected to be released later today. It was originally due on Wednesday, but the admin delayed it without providing a clear reason why. If Israel were found to be violating the law, military assistance to the country could be cut off. “Whatever the timing is of the eventual submission of this report is based on the speed work that had to get done to get it ready, and not some nefarious effort to make it harder for you guys to report on it,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters this afternoon. The report is still expected to be sharply critical of Israel, a U.S. official told The Associated Press. “The Biden administration finding comes after seven months of airstrikes, ground fighting and aid restrictions in Gaza that have claimed the lives of nearly 35,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children,” the AP writes. WATCH KHARKIV: The U.S. announced a new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine on Friday, just as it appears Russia has launched a major offensive in Kharkiv, our own ALEX WARD, PAUL McLEARY and LARA SELIGMAN report. The package, which will involve transferring weapons already in U.S. stocks, includes new Patriot missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Bradley fighting vehicles, mine-protected vehicles, Javelin anti-armor systems and other munitions. Russian forces launched an attack today across the Ukrainian border north of Kharkiv, potentially aiming to open a new front in the war that has long been waged in the country's east and south, our own ŠEJLA AHMATOVIĆ reports. EYEING THE ENVOY: Our own NAHAL TOOSI and JOE GOULD got new details about the FBI probe into the Biden administration’s Iran envoy, ROB MALLEY, namely that a criminal investigation is underway. A person briefed on the case and a person familiar with the matter said authorities have been investigating allegations including whether Malley moved classified information onto his personal email. The person briefed said the probe is also looking into whether Malley provided classified information to foreign officials, intentionally or unintentionally. Malley declined to comment but has previously denied any wrongdoing. And it is far from clear if the Justice Department will bring any charges against Malley or what the scope of any charges might be. Similar cases in the past have fizzled out. ON THE GROUND IN RAFAH: Israeli forces are conducting operations in Rafah, but haven’t yet hit the population centers. Our own ERIN BANCO got a new readout of the situation from aid groups on the ground. They said the IDF incursion has spilled over into Rafah city. The Israel Defense Forces targeted east Salah Ed Din with several bombardments, according to aid groups. The ongoing incursion is in the Al Shouka area located east of Mashrou Junction on Salah Ed Din road, they say, which is considered crucial for entering Rafah city. Palestinian militants confronted IDF troops by targeting them with mortar shells and rifles, aid groups say, and the IDF fired back with artillery shelling by targeting towers in the city center and several houses. Per the brief, a map of the area shows concentrated artillery in the center of Rafah city, where there are nine shelters holding at least 200,000 internally displaced people. The latest reports indicate that 80,000 displaced Palestinians from East Rafah moved to the west or toward Khan Younis. In the past day, 60 Palestinians were reportedly killed by artillery and airstrikes. OFFICIALLY OUT OF NIGER: The Pentagon this week formally ordered all 1,000 U.S. combat troops to withdraw from Niger over the next few months, a blow to the Biden administration’s effort to counter terrorism and Russian influence in West Africa, Lara also reports. GOOD SIGN FOR PALESTINE: The United Nations General Assembly today overwhelmingly backed a Palestinian bid to become a full member state, recommending to the U.N. Security Council that it “reconsider the matter favorably” after rejecting a bid last month, Reuters’ MICHELLE NICHOLS reports. Nine countries, including the U.S. and Israel, voted against the resolution today. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), the conservative firebrand serving on the Intelligence and Armed Services Committees. His drink of choice is black coffee, which he started drinking a lot more during his stint in the Army. Your anchor also consumes that bitter beverage daily, but there’s no way even the most energetic journo consumes as much as the senator did. “When I was downrange, I usually had two pots a day — one before patrol and one on patrol. My friends predicted I’d start dipping [tobacco] instead to stay awake, but it didn’t appeal to me and coffee did,” Cotton said. “These days, it’s the only (non-alcoholic!) beverage I drink besides water and an occasional Gatorade.” Cheers, senator! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | GETTING THE GANG BACK TOGETHER: Former Trump administration officials crowded into a basement room of the Willard on Thursday evening to launch a book styled as a national security operating manual for a possible second Trump admin, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. The book, “An American First Approach to U.S. National Security” makes the case for “why it is crucial that our country return to these policies” of Trump's administration, said the book’s editor FRED FLEITZ, former chief of staff on DONALD TRUMP's National Security Council. Fleitz was joined by fellow Trump administration alumni including former national security adviser KEITH KELLOGG, former acting secretary of the Department of Homeland Security CHAD WOLF and former U.S. Trade Representative ROBERT LIGHTHIZER. Their message: A perceived Biden administration obsession with issues including diversity, equity and inclusion in the military and the intelligence community has weakened the U.S., and only Trump-style policies can reverse that decline. Biden’s national security team is “more worried about renaming bases and putting Chinese-made solar panels on them than they are about doing what is necessary to keep our military the greatest fighting force on earth,” Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) told the crowd.
| | | |   | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ROBO-BOOST: Sens. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) and TED BUDD (R-N.C.) introduced a bill today to create an artificial intelligence initiative within the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance. The Five AIs Act would address the weaponization of AI by adversaries by ensuring the U.S. and its allies stay ahead in artificial intelligence and develop a strategy to prepare for future threats. The United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand are part of the alliance alongside the U.S. American lawmakers have warned that the U.S. is falling behind Europe and other parts of the world in artificial intelligence, so “it’s critical that we work with our closest intelligence partners to develop shared AI strategies and stay ahead of our adversaries,” Rosen said in a statement. RUSSIA ON THE ATTACK: Russian hacking activities are on the rise both against Ukrainian groups and European governments, and officials are expecting efforts to intensify, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. A Ukrainian government report out today found that Russian hackers allegedly spent the second half of 2023 trying to gain access to Ukraine’s “DELTA” military situational awareness system. The system is used by Ukraine’s military forces, and the report noted that Russian hackers used phishing attacks and fake mobile apps in attempting to gain access to DELTA accounts. Russian cyberattacks have become increasingly visible in recent weeks, including Germany and the U.S. formally calling out Russian hacking group APT28 — the same group behind the 2016 U.S. election interference — for attacking a leading German political party. The State Department said APT28 has also been behind recent malicious cyber activity aimed at Czechia, Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia and Sweden. JENNIFER BACHUS, principal deputy secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, told reporters today that Russia “is carrying out destabilizing intrusions into cyber networks around Europe and into the United States as well, and so I think this is a trend that we expect will continue.” SILICON VALLEY VS CHINA: Silicon Valley is playing an increasingly crucial role in Washington's efforts to counter China’s tech advancements, says YLLI BAJRAKTARI, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project think tank. He sat down with POLITICO Tech podcast host STEVEN OVERLY to discuss this and other topics — it’s a conversation very much worth your time. And we recommend subscribing to POLITICO Tech on Apple and Spotify! ICYMI — Facing Hill pressure, tech group kicks out TikTok by our own DANIEL LIPPMAN and BRENDAN BORDELON
| | | | JOIN 5/22 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF TAXATION: With Trump-era tax breaks set to expire in 2025, whoever wins control of Congress, and the White House will have the ability to revamp the tax code and with it reshape the landscape for business and social policy. Join POLITICO on May 22 for an exploration of what is at stake in the November elections with our panel dissecting the ways presidential candidates and congressional leaders are proposing to reshape our tax rates and incentives. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | DON’T OVERESTIMATE RUSSIA: NATO retains a big advantage over Russia when it comes to ground forces — though not as much when it comes to nuclear weapons, space, submarines, and cyber capabilities, Adm. ANTONY RADAKIN, U.K.’s Chief of the Defence Staff, told reporters in Washington on Thursday. The war in Ukraine has wiped out enough Russian troops and equipment that he doesn’t expect Moscow to be able to present any real threat of having the capability to invade a NATO nation for a decade, at least. Radakin estimated that Russia has lost 500,000 troops killed or wounded in Ukraine, and that despite losing some territory this year, Kyiv retains “the strategic upper hand” now that more military aid is flowing from the U.S. and allies, including a new $400 million aid package set to be announced by the White House on Friday. Putin has failed in his strategic objectives for the war, Radakin said: “He's going to have 500,000 killed and wounded by the end of June … The strategic momentum is with Ukraine.” WHERE RUSSIA HIDES ITS NUKES: Satellite images analyzed by The New York Times’ CHRISTOPH KOETTL show security upgrades at a Cold War-era munitions depot in central Belarus, which suggest the Kremlin could hide some nukes there — 120 miles north of the Ukrainian border.
| | HITTING BIDEN ON ISRAEL: House Armed Services Committee ranking member ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) said Biden should not have announced his plans to withhold weapons from Israel, Joe also reports. “I don’t think he should have done it publicly,” Smith told CNN today. “I think the private conversations were very appropriate.” It’s rare for a Democrat to break with Biden, and for the most part, the president’s decision has been celebrated by progressives. But more are speaking out today: 26 others House Democrats also blasted Biden in a letter today, Jewish Insider’s MARC ROD reports. Read: Israel support should be ‘not conditioned,’ retired officers say by Joe (for Pros!). FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NEW DEM PRIORITIES: The New Democrat Coalition National Security Task Force sent a letter today to HASC leadership outlining what the coalition wants to see included in the upcoming defense spending bill. Signed by more than 50 lawmakers, the letter lists priorities: supporting servicemembers and their families, bolstering the U.S. defense industrial base; investing in military modernization and innovation, and upholding our commitments to allies, such as Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. They also note the ongoing war in Gaza and the need to help civilians there. “We must also prioritize humanitarian assistance to the citizens in Gaza and the West Bank,” the letter reads. “We must send a message to the world that the U.S. upholds its commitment to freedom, democracy and human rights.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | | KENYA CURTAILED: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON decided against allowing Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO to address a joint session of Congress during his visit to Washington later this month — because lawmakers are too busy, Punchbowl News reports. Ruto will be in town to mark the 60th anniversary of U.S.-Kenyan diplomatic relations. His visit also comes as U.S.-backed Kenyan forces are set to deploy to Haiti to help quell rampant gang violence in the country.
| | — Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN reappointed MIKHAIL MISHUSTIN as prime minister in part of a planned government reshuffle.
| | — H.A. HELLYER, Foreign Policy: How Joe Biden sabotaged the ‘rules-based order’ — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: As Rafah hangs in the balance, will Bibi defy Biden? — OLIVER CARROLL, The Economist: Ukraine will hold if it gets the arms it needs, says a top general
| | — Hudson Institute's China Center, 9 a.m.: Conference on "the pernicious Impact of China's anti-secession law” — Hudson Institute, 9:30 a.m.: Foreshocks in the Black Sea and Western Balkans: repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war — Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program, 10:30 a.m.: Book discussion on "The Insiders' Game: How Elites Make War and Peace" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Can South Korea save Ukraine? — Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: Implementing the U.S. international cyberspace and digital policy strategy — Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: Strengthening the middle ground of the defense-industrial landscape — Council on Foreign Relations, 5:30 p.m.: U.S. defense priorities around the world and the state of the American armed forces Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who we would never trust to accompany us to the shooting range. We also thank our producer, Giselle Ewing, whose aim is perfect. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
