Slowly but surely, the billionaires and investors who shunned former President Donald Trump after the 2020 election are returning to the fold. Wall Street backers of the Republican real estate mogul are betting that Trump’s volatile temperament and bombastic flexing of his authority could actually quell recent geopolitical turmoil that has created uncertainty for global investors. By their thinking, finding solutions to the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the U.S.’s strained relationship with China, will require a tougher posture than what President Joe Biden has offered. To that end, some c-suite executives view Trump’s unpredictability and willingness to use American power to his advantage as a positive, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told MM over the holiday weekend. “If Trump is willing to use that power — especially to brandish it vis-a-vis other countries that aren’t doing things that we like — more often than not [those countries are] going to try and find a way to get along,” Bremmer, who specializes in assessing geopolitical risks, Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman cited concerns with current economic and foreign policies in saying Friday that he will back Trump. Citadel’s Ken Griffin — who has not endorsed Trump — went so far as to say that a November victory for the former president would lead to “a global perception of a stronger America,” at the Qatar Economic Forum earlier this month. “But let’s keep in mind that you also have to get lucky. And — you know —Trump’s environment in 2016 to 2020 was a much more calm geopolitical environment. The environment right now is much more problematic,” said Bremmer. He added: “You can see a significant upside and a significant downside with Trump coming in. The question you need to ask yourself — believe me, Wall Street is better at asking this than anybody else – is how lucky do you feel?” For a growing number of power brokers, the answer to that “Dirty Harry”-style question is “lucky enough.” Schwarzman became the latest, joining a cohort that already included oil and natural gas executive Harold Hamm, hedge fund investor Nelson Peltz and hotel tycoon Robert Bigelow. Nearly four years after denouncing the insurrection that followed Trump’s remarks on Jan. 6, 2021, Schwarzman said that rising antisemitism — as well as economic, immigration and foreign policy concerns — prompted him to examine the consequences of the upcoming election with “greater urgency.” Trump is leveraging the GOP donor class’s dissatisfaction with Biden on all the above on the fundraising trail — particularly with regard to Israel. At a recent donor roundtable in New York, Trump said he would expel pro-Palestinian student protesters from the U.S. and touted his administration’s relocation of the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, The Washington Post reported. While Trump might reclaim some friends on Wall Street with that pitch, it’s far from clear if it will be a successful approach should he secure a second term. “Trump could be the guy that ends the wars. Trump could be the guy that makes the wars a lot worse,” Bremmer said. “Both are possible.” IT’S TUESDAY — It’s good to be back. What’d I miss? As always, send tips and suggestions to me at ssutton@politico.com and to Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com.
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