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May 21, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — “Trump’s social media account shares video referencing ‘unified reich,’” by Natalie Allison: DONALD TRUMP’s “campaign said a staffer did not see the word ‘reich’ before it was posted — an explanation President JOE BIDEN’s team blasted on Monday night.”

IT’S THE HOUSING, STUPID — “A Celebrity Finance Guru’s 1 Tip for Joe Biden,” by Alexander Burns: “The bestselling author and Netflix star RAMIT SETHI sees a major opportunity for the Biden campaign to change the conversation about the cost of living.”

FILE - A sign is displayed at the Clackamas County Democratic party building, which is in Oregon's 5th Congressional District, May 17, 2024, in Oregon City, Ore. Ten jurisdictions have yet to weigh in on the presidential primaries even though Joe Biden and Donald Trump locked in their parties' nominations months ago. Voters Oregon, will get their chance on Tuesday, May 21. They will make symbolic decisions that provide a few more delegates to the national conventions   and a gut check on where the Democratic and Republican bases stand toward their standard bearers. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane, File)

Several Democratic primaries pit left-leaning candidates against strong moderate challengers, and ground zero this week is deep-blue Oregon. | AP

LEFT HANGING — It’s primary day in a handful of states coast to coast. We can boil down the theme of the day into four words: progressives on the defensive.

Several Democratic primaries pit left-leaning candidates against strong moderate challengers, and ground zero this week is deep-blue Oregon, where a post-pandemic backlash against the state’s liberal policies continues to reverberate.

Portland-area DA MIKE SCHMIDT is the latest progressive prosecutor to face voter fury after experiments with reducing incarceration and drug legalization fed an explosion of crime, homelessness, open-air drug dealing and overdoses.

Schmidt is being challenged by Republican-turned-independent NATHAN VASQUEZ, a longtime prosecutor and subordinate of Schmidt’s. And despite the fact that Multnomah County hasn’t voted Republican for president since 1960s, our dear colleague Jonathan Martin reports this morning that Vasquez is primed for an upset.

It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen a liberal prosecutor turned out of office by fed-up voters: San Francisco recalled DA CHESA BOUDIN two years ago, and Chicago’s KIM FOXX declined to run again and was replaced by a candidate who had her as soft on criminals.

But Schmidt’s defeat, JMart writes, would represent a particularly dizzying full-circle moment, given Portland’s central role in the 2020 protests over police brutality.

“It should also get the attention of Democratic lawmakers everywhere,” he adds. “They’ve mostly found success by elevating abortion and MAGA, the party’s best one-two since Dobbs, but their vulnerabilities on quality-of-life issues remain and could prove particularly acute with the broader presidential electorate this fall.”

Or as he put it to us in this morning’s Playbook Daily Briefing: “You can't assume that just because they don't like Donald Trump that they're going to vote straight Dem all the way down the ballot when they have those kind of quality-of-life frustrations.”

Two House primaries are also worth your attention, starting with the race to take on incumbent GOP Rep. LORI CHAVEZ-DeREMER in a district that stretches from Portland’s south suburbs into the rural stretches of the state.

Unabashed progressive JAMIE McLEOD-SKINNER wants a second shot at the seat after unseating centrist Rep. KURT SCHRADER (D-Ore.) in the 2022 primary then losing to Chavez-DeRemer. But it’s state Rep. JANELLE BYNUM who has the backing of the DCCC and a well-funded super PAC backed by LinkedIn co-founder REID HOFFMAN.

And in the Portland-centric race to succeed longtime Rep. EARL BLUMENAUER, county commissioner SUSHEELA JAYAPAL is seeking to join her sister, Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.), as a force on the left in the House.

But she is facing a combined $5 million onslaught, some of it favoring state Rep. MAXINE DEXTER, a relative centrist, and much of it coming from a dark-money group, Voters for Responsive Government, that has yet to report any donors as many on the left suspect the involvement of pro-Israel groups. (A filing last night curiously included no contributions or disbursements.) More from the Oregonian

Other races to watch:

— In Georgia, two key figures in the Fulton County election conspiracy case against Trump — DA FANI WILLIS and Judge SCOTT McAFEE — face voters today; the former in a Democratic primary, the latter in a nonpartisan general election.

“I plan to win and win big tomorrow,” Willis said in an interview with MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow last night where she also called House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN a “clown.”

In the race to replace GOP Rep. DREW FERGUSON southwest of Atlanta, former Trump political advisor BRIAN JACK has the advantage of his old boss’s endorsement as he stares down a bunch of other Republicans — not to mention $1.5 million in super PAC spending, per Jeff Singer of Daily Kos Elections.

And keep an eye on the Georgia Supreme Court, where conservative justice ANDREW PINSON faces a potential ouster at the hands of former Democratic Rep. JOHN BARROW due to blowback on abortion matters. Either way, conservatives will still control the court, but a Barrow win would underscore the continued salience of abortion in a key battleground state.

— And in California, we’ll finally find out which Republican will succeed KEVIN McCARTHY in the Bakersfield-based 20th District. Assemblyman VINCE FONG, a former district director for McCarthy, beat county sheriff MIKE BOUDREAUX by 17 points in the March 5 special election primary and is widely expected to prevail in today’s runoff. More from LAT

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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SPLIT DECISION — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s plan to keep his GOP ranks united following the failed motion to vacate by dividing Democrats continues to play out remarkably well.

Starting tomorrow, he’s putting a big cryptocurrency bill on the floor written by two top chairmen — PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.) of Financial Service and G.T. THOMPSON of Ag — one that’s opposed by the Biden administration and top Democrats on those committees. But enough Dems are backing the bill that party leaders aren’t whipping the bill, Eleanor Mueller reports.

The bigger squeeze play to keep your eye on surrounds yesterday’s announcement that an International Criminal Court prosecutor is eying arrest warrants for Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT over alleged war crimes. Johnson is likely to hold a vote on a measure sanctioning the ICC and its leaders as soon as this week.

Democrats are all over the map on how they’ll handle this situation. Some progressives are cheering the ICC, while others are blasting it but refusing to say how the U.S. should respond, if at all.

The Biden administration, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES have all chided the ICC. But Republicans are keen on making Democrats vote on this issue, and it’s unclear how they’ll handle it.

Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) captured the spirit of the push yesterday, praising Schumer’s “strong condemnation” but pushing for more: “However, it is now time to follow strong words with strong deeds.”

Schumer’s office would not say if he supports levying sanctions on the ICC.

Related reads: “Amal Clooney is one of the legal experts who recommended war crimes charges in Israel-Hamas war,” AP … “Prosecuting Netanyahu Has Risks for International Criminal Court,” by WSJ’s Jess Bravin

YELLEN AND PROTECTIN’ — “Treasury Secretary JANET L. YELLEN said on Tuesday that the United States and Europe needed to work together to push back against China’s excess industrial capacity, warning that a wave of cheap Chinese exports represents a grave threat to the global economy,” NYT’s Alan Rappeport and Liz Alderman report. “Ms. Yellen’s remarks, delivered during a speech in Germany, highlighted what is expected to be a central topic of discussion when the Group of 7 finance ministers meet in Italy this week.”

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. and take up judicial nominations throughout the day, with a recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will testify before the Foreign Relations Committee at 10:30 a.m. and an Appropriations subcommittee at 2:30 p.m.

The House will meet at noon and will take up several bills at 2 p.m., with votes expected at 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will take up multiple bills at 4 p.m., including a measure to reverse a D.C. law allowing non-citizens to vote in local elections.

3 things to watch …

  1. The Senate will vote Thursday to (again) try to advance a bipartisan border security bill, Schumer said yesterday. It’s destined to fail but Dems are determined to make a point, and our Myah Ward has obtained a new White House memo slamming Republicans as the “ultimate obstacle stopping [Biden] from making our border and communities more secure.” Spokesperson ANDREW BATES paints the GOP as anti-law enforcement for opposing the proposal, which would add thousands of new immigration enforcement personnel. “[T]ime and time again, congressional Republicans book themselves on Fox News to brag about how tough on crime they are, then turn around and, when it matters, vote against law enforcement,” Bates writes.
  2. The Senate is on track to confirm Biden’s 200th federal judge this evening. After confirming SETH AFRAME to the 1st Circuit Court of Appeals yesterday, the Senate should hit the mark following votes today on Arizona district court nominees KRISSA LANHAM and ANGELA MARTINEZ. Schumer yesterday called it a milestone that “shows how intensely focused we are on filling the bench with jurists who will make our democracy stronger and uphold the rule of law.” According to a Heritage Foundation tracker, Biden has now jumped ahead of Trump’s overall confirmation pace, though it will be a tall order to match Trump’s total of 234 with an election-year legislative calendar.
  3. As news of the pending ICC charges reverberate on Capitol Hill, a bipartisan pair of lawmakers is hoping to refocus attention on the Hamas attacks that sparked the Gaza war. Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) and Rep. DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ (D-Fla.) are hosting a members-only screening of “Screams Before Silence,” a documentary about sexual violence committed during the Oct. 7 attack, on the Capitol campus later today. After the screening, former Facebook executive SHERYL SANDBERG, who appears in the film, will moderate a bipartisan panel discussion.

At the White House

Biden will travel to Nashua, New Hampshire, where he’ll speak about the PACT Act at 1:30 p.m. at the Westwood Park YMCA. He’ll then head to Boston for a pair of campaign receptions, before returning to the White House at night.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Philadelphia to deliver the keynote speech at the SEIU convention at 12:05 p.m. She’ll return to D.C. in the afternoon.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

President Joe Biden speaks during a Jewish American Heritage Month event, Monday May 20, 2024, in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Fundraising for Joe Biden’s presidential campaign plunged last month. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

CASH DASH — Fundraising totals for Biden’s reelect, associated committees and the DNC plunged last month to $51 million, Jessica Piper and Lauren Egan report. That’s a worrying sign for Democrats, who pulled in barely half of their March haul and, in a change, fell behind the Trump/RNC operation, which says it raised $76 million. (The official reports for both campaigns haven’t come in yet, so these are self-reported numbers.) Biden’s campaign tried to tout its grassroots appeal, contrasted with Trump raising $51 million at one donor event. But Biden’s $192 million cash-on-hand total was largely unchanged from the month before, per the AP.

There were plenty of warning signs for Trump, too. His campaign had $49 million in the bank — massively less than Biden — and lots of money is continuing to get diverted into Trump’s legal fees, which sucked up $3.3 million from the Save America PAC last month.

ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s super PAC, American Values 2024, pulled in $5 million of its $6.1 million total from billionaire TIM MELLON, who’s double-dipping by also supporting Trump, Brittany Gibson and Jessica report.

Outside the campaign: “Trump’s Social Media Company Posts Q1 Revenue of $770,500 and Net Loss of $327.6 Million,” by Variety’s Todd Spangler

More top reads:

  • Queering the vote: The Human Rights Campaign is launching a $15 million push to bolster Biden across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, NBC’s Sahil Kapur scooped, including ads, field campaigns and staffers.

TRUMP CARDS

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 20: Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after exiting the courtroom alongside his attorney Todd Blanche during his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 20, 2024 in New York City. The prosecution rested their case in Trump's hush money trial after cross examination of Michael Cohen, Trump's former attorney, wrapped up. Attorney Robert   Costello will be back on the stand when the trial resumes, and Judge Juan Merchan says to expect summations next week. Cohen's $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels is tied to Trump's 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first of his criminal cases to go to trial. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

The defense is expected to rest today in Donald Trump's hush money trial. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

THE TRUMP TRIAL — Prosecutors rested their case in Trump’s criminal hush money trial yesterday, but the day in court was anything but sleepy. MICHAEL COHEN’s testimony wrapped up, and the defense moved to dismiss the case at the end of the day. Prosecutors scored at least one notable point: Cohen testified that a video still showed Trump bodyguard KEITH SCHILLER with Trump just at the moment in 2016 when Cohen says he called Schiller to tell Trump the STORMY DANIELS payoff was finalized.

But nobody offered more fireworks than ROBERT COSTELLO, a New York lawyer who talked with Cohen in 2018 and tried to puncture his credibility on the stand, Erica Orden, Josh Gerstein and Ben Feuerherd recap. Costello said Cohen told him multiple times that Trump was unaware of the payment to keep Daniels’ allegation of an affair with Trump quiet during the 2016 election — cutting at the heart of the case against Trump.

Costello was also so combative and demonstrative in court — voicing displeasure with prosecutors’ objections that were sustained — that Justice JUAN MERCHAN took the highly unusual step of clearing everyone from the room to dress him down. Per the transcript, Merchan told him, “I’m putting you on notice that your conduct is contemptuous. … If you try to stare me down one more time, I will remove you from the stand.” Merchan added that he’d strike everything Costello said if his behavior continued.

Talking to reporters afterward, Trump labeled Merchan a “tyrant” over the day’s proceedings and also came awfully close to violating the gag order imposed on him in the case. The defense is expected to rest today.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD 

EBRAHIM RAISI FALLOUT — In the wake of the Iranian president’s death in a helicopter crash, a U.S. statement sending condolences to their adversary in Tehran rubbed some human rights activists the wrong way, Semafor’s Jay Solomon reports. But it also “offered a clear sign of the West’s desire to maintain a diplomatic line.” For now, the Biden administration doesn’t expect Raisi’s death to alter the broader regional calculus, Alex Ward, Jonathan Lemire, Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi report. But it’s also watching closely, amid fears (especially in the immediate aftermath) that Iran might blame the U.S. or Israel.

ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR LATEST — Biden continued to stand clearly with Israel at a White House event yesterday, declaring that Israel’s killing of 35,000 Palestinians in its war against Hamas “is not genocide,” Elena Schneider, Jennifer Haberkorn and Eli Stokols report. “We reject that.” He also met with the parents of an American still held hostage by Hamas. At the same time, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN criticized Israel’s strategy as potentially damaging in the long term, per Paul McLeary and Lara. Closer to the battlefield, the U.S. effort to get more aid into Gaza via a floating pier appears to be off to a rocky start, the U.N. said yesterday, warning of humanitarian catastrophe, per Reuters’ Michelle Nichols.

The shadow administration: Former Trump national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN and two other officials from his administration met with Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU yesterday, Reuters’ Gram Slattery scooped. That’s a highly unusual move. We’re told that O’Brien stayed at the same Tel Aviv hotel as current national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN.

THE NEVER-ENDING STORY — “The U.S. was set to move 11 detainees out of Guantanamo. Then Hamas attacked Israel,” by NBC’s Courtney Kube and Carol Lee: “The move [to Oman] was imminent and Congress had already been notified it would take place when it was called off. More than seven months later, no new date for the transfer has been set.”

RECENT HISTORY — “New 9/11 Evidence Points to Deep Saudi Complicity,” by Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon in The Atlantic: “Two decades of U.S. policy appear to be rooted in a mistaken understanding of what happened that day.”

 

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POLICY CORNER

The Marshall Steam Station coal power plant operates on Sunday, March 3, 2024, near Mooresville, N.C. In campaigns for Congress and for governor around the country, candidates are talking about how green the grid should be. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

The Biden administration is taking aim at power plant pollution. | Chris Carlson/AP Photo

RACE TO THE FINISH LINE — The Biden administration is scrambling to issue rules across a wide range of areas to beat the deadline after which a GOP Congress and White House could easily undo them, Marcia Brown and a big team of POLITICO reporters write this morning. Having learned from BARACK OBAMA’s mistakes, Biden’s agencies are blitzing the policy changes to avoid vulnerability to the Congressional Review Act. They have about a week or so left, depending on how many days Congress is in session this year.

The rules that have already arrived recently include taking aim at power plant pollution and vehicle emissions; making airlines pay customers back for delays; banning non-compete agreements; expanding overtime pay; slashing credit card late fees; pushing big companies to be transparent about climate change; protecting abortion providers and seekers from investigation; cracking down on “Product of the USA” labels for beef; and letting Dreamers access Obamacare.

More top reads:

  • MARTIN GRUENBERG out: WSJ’s Rebecca Ballhaus and Andrew Ackerman report that the embattled FDIC plans to resign once a successor is confirmed, “avoiding a scenario that would leave FDIC Vice Chairman TRAVIS HILL, a Republican, as the agency’s acting chairman. … Gruenberg’s announcement comes hours after [Senate Banking Chair SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio)] called for new leadership.”

MORE POLITICS

STICKING TO THEIR GUNS — Former Rep. BOB BARR won election as the new president of the National Rifle Association yesterday. He was nominated largely by allies of controversial former leader WAYNE LaPIERRE. But reformers won the other three top leadership contests, including for LaPierre’s old role, and were happy with the NRA taking a new direction, The Reload’s Stephen Gutowski reports from Dallas.

BIG BET IN VEGAS — “Abortion rights activists believe they have enough signatures to get measure on ballot,” by the Nevada Independent’s Kelsea Frobes

PRIMARY COLORS — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON rolled out his home-state congressional endorsements, and though he’s supporting both GOP Reps. JULIA LETLOW and GARRET GRAVES, the devil’s in the details, the Shreveport Times’ Greg Hilburn reports. With Louisiana’s map still uncertain amid a gerrymandering court challenge, Johnson is making clear that he wants Letlow, not Graves, running in the safe Republican district.

KNOWING MAGGIE GOODLANDER — “In a House Race in N.H., a Famous Spouse, and a Traumatic Pregnancy,” by NYT’s Lisa Lerer

CONGRESS

HOW DO YOU SOLVE A PROBLEM LIKE ALITO — Senators on both sides of the aisle expressed consternation yesterday about the NYT’s report that Justice SAMUEL ALITO’s home had hung the American flag upside down after Jan. 6. “Not good judgment,” said Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.). “We ought to take a good look at it,” said Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah). The No. 2 Democrat on Senate Judiciary, SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.), said the panel should investigate. But Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) said he doesn’t plan to open a formal probe — and that he hopes Alito just recuses himself from Trump-related cases, NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Frank Thorp V, Kate Santaliz and Syedah Asghar report.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court turns away challenge to Maryland assault weapons ban,” by CBS’ Melissa Quinn … “US Supreme Court spurns former Guantanamo Bay detainee’s appeal,” by Reuters’ John Kruzel

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

HIT THE SUBSCRIBE BUTTON — POLITICO’s latest newsletter is Ballot Measure Weekly, an in-depth look at the all-important ballot measure fights in California this year, from our Golden State colleagues Emily Schultheis and Will McCarthy. The first edition dropped yesterday, and it’s a must-read for anyone interested in Sacramento, rent control, crime and more.

 

YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. 

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Hunter Biden tried to delay his court date.

Glenn Youngkin is headlining a Kelly Ayotte fundraiser.

Joe Manchin doesn’t sound overly eager to run for West Virginia governor.

John Banuelos is counting on a Donald Trump pardon for his alleged Jan. 6 crimes.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at the Jewish Democratic Council of America’s Leadership Summit Dinner at the Pendry Hotel: Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Kathy Manning (D-N.C.) and Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), Halie Soifer, Susie Stern, Ron Klein and Marc Elias.

MEDIA MOVE — Lindsey McPherson is now a congressional reporter for The Washington Times. She most recently was a Congress reporter at The Messenger and is a CQ/Roll Call alum.

TRANSITIONS — Patrick Dillon is now senior adviser at the Commerce Department, where he will work on external affairs for CHIPS and AI. He most recently was a partner at Hilltop Public Solutions and is an Obama White House alum. … Ryan Berger is now senior adviser to the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies. He previously was at the State Department, where he was chief of staff of the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy (via the U.S. Embassy in Paris). … Richard Shanahan will be senior manager of government relations for Nissan. He previously was director of government and external relations at Hitachi. …

… Pete Boogaard has launched his own firm, Boogaard Strategic Consulting. He most recently led policy comms at Snap and is a FWD.us, Obama White House and DHS alum. … Aliza Lifshitz is now deputy political director at Voters of Tomorrow. She previously was at the Leadership Conference and is a Giffords alum. … Latham & Watkins is adding Jennifer Bragg and William (Bill) McConagha as partners. They most recently were partners at Skadden.

ENGAGED — Brendan Shields, staff director of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, proposed to Paula Tavares, senior legal and gender specialist at the World Bank Group and a global fellow at Wilson Center, at lunch yesterday near Rock Creek Park. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Arthur Brooks Rebecca LeberJulia Debo … Senate GOP’s Katharine Noyes Mary Ann Gomez Orta of the ‎Congressional Hispanic Leadership Institute … Mike PodhorzerBrent Del Monte of BGR … JPMorgan Chase’s Ross Rattanasena … NewsNation’s Mike Viqueira … former Sens. Al Franken (D-Minn.) and George LeMieux (R-Fla.) … former Rep. Tom Feeney (R-Fla.) … Wally HsuehJeffrey Toobin … NBC’s Stacey Klein Edgar Santana of New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office … Mollie Binotto of Sena Kozar Strategies … POLITICO’s Erin Smith Mosheh Oinounou … CNBC’s Steve Liesman … Time’s Jeffrey Kluger Anna Smith LaceyMatt Appenfeller Fred Frommer Abigail P. Gage Brandon PollakJill DoughertyAudrey Ronning Topping (96) … Julia Gaffney of Rep. Sharice Davids’ (D-Kan.) office … Jessica LaheyBrayden Woods of Rep. Beth Van Duyne’s (R-Texas) office

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

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