| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Matt Berg | |  Kosovo's foreign minister warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin's territorial ambitions don’t stop at the Ukrainian border — and that Ukraine’s victory against Russia would ensure stability in the long-troubled Balkans. | Pool photo by Mikhail Tereshchenko | With help from Alex Ward and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Russia could inflame tensions in the Balkans and create a new war for the West to diffuse if it prevails in its war with Ukraine, Kosovo’s top diplomat told NatSec Daily. In an interview at Kosovo’s embassy across from the National Cathedral in Washington, Foreign Minister DONIKA GËRVALLA-SCHWARZ warned that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s territorial ambitions don’t stop at the Ukrainian border — and that Ukraine’s victory against Russia would ensure stability in the long-troubled Balkans. “Putin's strategy is to keep the West distracted with various conflicts,” she said. “So another war in the Balkans would be very welcomed by Russia.” Kosovo in particular is an alluring target for Putin, she added, because the country’s prosperity undermines his argument that the West cannot help former Eastern bloc countries. NATO and Washington are celebrated for stopping ethnic violence and genocide in the region following the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. “Putin speaks every week about Kosovo,” she said. “It’s not about the geopolitical importance of Kosovo, but it is about the fact that Kosovo is a success story of the West, a success story of the United States of America, it’s a success story of NATO, a success story of the European Western countries.” Gërvalla-Schwarz’s warning comes as other European nations in Russia’s backyard have publicly voiced their concerns about Putin’s growing aggression toward its neighbors. Last week, Sweden said Putin was eyeing the strategically significant Baltic island of Gotland. Finnish Prime Minister PETTERI ORPO warned Russia is already attacking its neighbors using hybrid tactics. And the European Union also condemned Russia for removing buoys delineating its river border with Estonia. At the same time, Serbia’s far-right government is growing closer with Moscow and is promoting denialism about the Bosnian genocide. Belgrade launched a lobbying campaign to try and defeat a U.N. resolution remembering the slaughter of 8,000 Bosniak men and boys in the town of Srebrenica in 1995, one of the most infamous atrocities of the Balkans Wars. The resolution ultimately passed in the general assembly last week. Both sides of the Atlantic have worried that Serbia could attempt to retake Kosovo, as the country’s leader ALEKSANDAR VUČIĆ flirts with rhetoric about a “greater Serbia” encompassing Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Skirmishes occurred between the two sides at Kosovo’s northern border in September. The Russian paramilitary group Wagner also maintains a presence in the region and has trained Serb paramilitary groups in the past. In a statement to NatSec Daily, the State Department said it supports dialogue facilitated by the EU “as the path to achieve a peaceful and productive relationship between the two countries.” “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and its malign efforts in the Western Balkans underscore the urgency and importance of these priorities,” the statement continued. Serbia and Russia, for their part, have denied Kosovo’s allegations and maintain they are committed to resolving tensions peacefully. Serbia’s embassy in Washington said in a statement to NatSec Daily “certain actors in the region are trying to create an untrue narrative to pursue their own political interests” and said Serbia “is resolutely opposed to any regional conflict.” The Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to NatSec Daily’s requests for comment.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | BIBI BLASTS BIDEN: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said he’s “surprised and disappointed” that the Biden administration won’t support sanctions on a war crimes court seeking his arrest, our own ALEX WARD reports. On Tuesday, the White House said it would reject the Republican-led congressional effort to reprimand the International Criminal Court after its chief prosecutor filed arrest warrants for Netanyahu, War Cabinet member YOAV GALLANT and Hamas leaders. That reversed a previous signal from Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, who said the administration would work with Congress on potentially imposing sanctions. Netanyahu blasted the new stance in an interview with Sirius XM’s “The Morgan Ortagus Show” that is set to air Sunday. Alex obtained a clip of the interview ahead of the broadcast: “The United States said that they would, in fact, back the sanctions bill,” Netanyahu says in the interview. “I thought that was still the American position because there was bipartisan consensus just a few days ago.” “Now you say there’s a question mark,” he told host MORGAN ORTAGUS, a former spokesperson for the State Department in the Trump administration, “and frankly I’m surprised and disappointed.” ‘ANOTHER SEVEN MONTHS’ IN GAZA: Israel’s military expects fighting in Gaza to continue for another seven months, Netanyahu’s national security adviser TZACHI HANEGBI told Israeli public radio, per BBC News’ DAVID GRITTEN. Asked about the comments, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY wouldn’t directly address them, but said Biden “is committed to seeing that we find a way to end this conflict and to end it as soon as practical.” Meanwhile, “there is a fresh proposal” for a cease-fire that the Israelis are “supportive” of, Kirby said. However, Israel’s offensive isn’t stopping, as Israeli tanks conducted raids throughout Rafah for a second consecutive day, defying the International Court of Justice’s call to stop the offensive, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI reports. Residents in the southern city told Reuters that tanks moved into western areas Tel Al-Sultan and Yibna, as well as near Shaboura in the center, before retreating to a buffer zone on Egypt’s border. Three Israeli soldiers have been killed and another three badly wounded in the Rafah offensive, Reuters’ MAAYAN LUBELL reports. The Biden administration has repeatedly said Israel’s operation does not cross its “red line,” which would be a major ground operation including thousands of troops moving in a maneuvered way. But U.S.-made munitions were used in the Israeli strike that led to the death of dozens of Palestinians in a displacement camp on Sunday, CNN’s ALLEGRA GOODWIN, AVERY SCHMITZ and KATHLEEN MAGRAMO reported, which will likely increase the pressure on the White House to join scores of other countries in calling for Israel to stop. Read: ‘Catastrophic consequences’ in Rafah due to Israel’s actions, Power warns by Matt LET UKRAINE USE US WEAPONS ON RUSSIA: Two senior Biden administration officials today opened the door to allowing Ukraine to use American-donated weapons to strike inside Russia, Matt, Alex and NAHAL TOOSI report. A “hallmark” of the Biden administration’s approach toward Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion two years ago “has been to adapt as the conditions have changed, as the battlefield has changed, as what Russia does has changed,” Blinken told reporters in Moldova today. “We’ve adapted and adjusted, too, and we’ll continue to do that,” he continued. Shortly afterward, Kirby, while stating that there’s “no change” in the current policy that says Ukraine can’t use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike inside Russian territory, also noted that America’s “support to Ukraine has evolved appropriately.” Two other Biden administration officials cautioned that no final decision has been made and that Blinken and Kirby were describing a general trend of American support for Ukraine during the war — one of initial caution followed by permission. They were not necessarily guaranteeing a forthcoming shift. The topic is “under consideration,” a U.S. official familiar with the issue said. Kyiv hasn’t seen concrete movement on the matter from the Biden administration, according to a person close to Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s office. ANOTHER STATE RESIGNATION: Another State Department official resigned in protest of U.S. support of Israel’s war effort in Gaza, The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON and MICHAEL BIRNBAUM reported Tuesday night. STACY GILBERT, a career State Department official with the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, said in an email to staff that she disagreed with the department’s assessment that Israel had not obstructed humanitarian assistance to Gaza. WASHINGTON PANDA-MONIUM: Giant pandas will return to the Smithsonian National Zoo in Washington this year, the zoo announced today on social media, in a renewed sign of panda diplomacy. In a video with First Lady JILL BIDEN, the Smithsonian shared that “within this year” China will send two giant pandas to the zoo, allowing visitors to once again see the cuddly creatures up close. Bao Li, a two-year-old male, and Qing Bao, a two-year-old female, will arrive from China later this year, according to The Washington Post’s MICHAEL RUANE. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Advancing 21st Century Security®
The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security®. The most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter in the world is helping those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | US VS. THEM: Senior American and European cyber officials raised the alarm today about actions by Russian and Chinese-backed groups across the U.S. and Europe. In a speech at NATO’s International Conference on Cyber Conflict in Estonia, top U.S. cyber diplomat NATE FICK rallied democratic nations to embrace so-called digital solidarity, which means aligning policies and standards around emerging technologies like AI as a counterweight to authoritarian models pushed by Beijing and Moscow. “We want to leverage shared values like freedom of expression and open and fair markets to better align policies and standards across the largest possible group,” he said, remarks that our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) scooped before the event. The message to industry, military and government seems clear: We'll create a safe harbor for democratic norms if you stick with the U.S. and its friends. Also today, JUHAN LEPASSAAR, head of the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, told The AP’s DEREK GATOPOULOS that disruptive cyberattacks have doubled in the EU in recent months, with many linked to Russia-backed groups: “This is part of the Russian war of aggression, which they fight physically in Ukraine, but digitally also across Europe,” he said.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S ENERGY SUMMIT: The future of energy faces a crossroads in 2024 as policymakers and industry leaders shape new rules, investments and technologies. Join POLITICO’s Energy Summit on June 5 as we convene top voices to examine the shifting global policy environment in a year of major elections in the U.S. and around the world. POLITICO will examine how governments are writing and rewriting new rules for the energy future and America’s own role as a major exporter. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | TANKS A LOT, I GUESS: Ukrainian soldiers are warning that the U.S.-provided Abrams tanks don’t provide sufficient defense against Russian attacks, making the troops who operate them frequent targets. “Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” one crew member told CNN. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.” PRETTY SWEDE: Sweden today announced its largest military aid package — worth about $1.26 billion — to Ukraine yet, which includes early warning aircraft, missiles and air defense systems, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. The early warning aircraft will work with the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine will receive this year, Swedish Defense Minister PÅL JONSON tweeted. Sweden will also donate an undisclosed number of Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles used in ground-based and air defense systems, 155mm artillery ammunition and resources to maintain previously donated equipment, and its entire stock of PBV 302 armored tracked personnel carriers to help build new Ukrainian units.
| | BOOSTING THE BUDGET: Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) is pushing an aggressive plan to build up the Pentagon budget, which he says is needed to keep pace with worldwide threats, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD report. As part of the sprawling plan unveiled today, Wicker, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, is proposing a $55 billion increase in defense spending above what Biden has requested — an amount that blows past caps on the Pentagon budget set last year under a bipartisan debt deal. Wicker aims to grow U.S. defense spending to a 5 percent share of GDP. Wicker argues that world events, namely increasing cooperation between China and Russia, justify more money to make more missiles and air defenses, accelerate shipbuilding to grow the Navy fleet, and expand the Air Force's aircraft inventory. “We do not need to spend this much indefinitely — but we do need a short-term generational investment to help us prevent another world war,” Wicker argued in a New York Times op-ed outlining his plan.
| | | |   | | | | | CAMPBELL’S WARNING ON CHINA: One of America’s top diplomats is warning Europe about the risk of China’s assistance to Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, our own STUART LAU reports. Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL told reporters in Brussels that "China's general goal has been not only to support Russia — in our view, to the hilt — but to downplay that publicly and try to maintain normal diplomatic and commercial ties with Europe." But Beijing’s support for Russia is deeply concerning, and Europe seems to be getting the message, he said. Washington has increasingly slammed Beijing, which has pledged neutrality in the face of the Russia-Ukraine war while simultaneously growing closer economically to Moscow and helping Russia ramp up its industrial base. RAINY WITH A CHANCE OF POOP: It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s a piece of crap from North Korea? South Korea warned residents living near the border with North Korea that Pyongyang is sending balloons with bags of trash and feces tied to them into the area, The Guardian’s JUSTIN McCURRY reports. Some 150 balloons have been detected, according to South Korean media. It apparently came as retaliation for South Korean activists dropping anti-North Korea leaflets across the border — acts of defiance that have been happening for years. On Sunday, however, North Korean leader KIM JONG UN said “mounds of wastepaper and filth will soon be scattered over the border areas and the interior … it will directly experience how much effort is required to remove them.”
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ALIA AWADALLAH is now director of the executive secretariat at the Department of Commerce. She most recently was senior adviser and speechwriter to the deputy under secretary of the Army. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Polaris National Security announced a slate of new hires: SEBASTIAN BORDA, formerly a legislative correspondent for Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), will serve as policy director. KENDALL JOHNSON, formerly a digital media producer at America First Policy Institute, was tapped to be chief marketing officer. KRISTEN JOSEPH, who worked as marketing director at Red Spark Strategy, will be the chief of staff. — The Atlantic Council tapped ROMESH RATNESAR to be its senior vice president of engagement. Ratnesar most recently managed Bloomberg Opinion’s editorial board. — Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs RAMIN TOLOUI will leave the State Department in June for Stanford University later this summer. Before joining State, he taught the practice of international finance at Stanford.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: The World's Most Advanced Fighter
The F-35 is the most advanced, connected fighter aircraft in the world – unmatched 5th Generation capabilities for the U.S. and allies around the globe. Learn more. | | | | | — KEITH CARTER, JENNIFER SPINDEL, and MATTHEW McCLARY, Foreign Affairs: How Ukraine can do more with less — SOPHIE IN ’T VELD and FRANCESCA ROMANA D'ANTUONO, POLITICO: Gaza: The rest of the world sees hypocrisy written into the West’s response — JODI RUDOREN, The Guardian: The US must recognize Palestine as a state. It’s time to look to the future, not the past
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “The Axis of Upheaval," focusing on China, Iran, North Korea and Russia. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 10 a.m.: Russian crimes against Ukrainian civilians: Findings from the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) Moscow mechanism report — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: A discussion with senior White House adviser AMOS HOCHSTEIN — Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, 11 a.m.: The future of U.S.-Mexico security cooperation — Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Leading in the cyber competition with China — United States Institute of Peace and the Carter Center, 12 p.m.: Strengthening democracy in the Americas — Washington Post Live, 1 p.m.: A screening of “Freedom on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom." — New America, 2:30 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on “A Matter of Trust: India-U.S. Relations from Truman to Trump" Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who always distracts us with editorial conflicts. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ewing, who is POLITICO’s greatest “success story.” | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
