| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Matt Berg | |  Gen. Micael Bydén, the supreme commander of Sweden’s armed forces, emphasized that unity within NATO will be critical in determining the tide of the war between Russia and Ukraine. | Michel Euler/AP | With help from Joe Gould and Alex Ward Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Sweden’s top military official is still convinced Ukraine can turn the tide of the war and regain territory from Russia, so long as NATO remains united behind Kyiv. In an interview with NatSec Daily, Gen. MICAEL BYDÉN, the supreme commander of Sweden’s armed forces, said he’s aware that Ukraine faces a tough challenge in fighting back against Russia. But Bydén emphasized that “so far, they have proven to do very well.” “I don't hear any deviation from the Ukrainians that they will defend every single centimeter of their territory, and they will do whatever they can to take back what they've lost,” he continued. It’s incumbent, he added, that “we together in the West stick together, not deviating from support and a common goal to give Ukraine what they need to fight the war.” Bydén’s comments come as officials on both sides of the Atlantic fret about Kyiv’s chances as it runs out of men to fight, morale lags on the Eastern front and Russia hints at a major offensive later this spring. Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN “thinks that domestic and international trends are in his favor,” Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES told lawmakers today, noting that Russia is making progress on the battlefield and could break through frontlines in areas such as Donetsk and Kharkiv. The war in Ukraine “is unlikely to end anytime soon,” she added. The situation on the frontline in eastern Ukraine is worsening as troops await the arrival of additional American military assistance. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today that the Ukrainians are “shoring up their defenses” and that weapons are beginning to make their way to the battlefield. Regardless of the delays, Bydén argued that the passage of the supplemental spending deal will be indispensable for Ukraine’s war effort since the U.S. can provide more “volume” of weapons than any other NATO member state. He added: “It also, I think, motivates, inspires and also puts pressure on the others of us.” Despite the concerns about Ukraine’s prospects, Bydén said the alliance shouldn’t press Ukraine to pursue a peace deal. So long as Ukraine wants to fight, he says, the alliance needs to ensure it’s speaking with “a common voice.” NATO support needs to adapt to the evolving situation and may need to provide more direct support in the future, including the presence of international troops in a few years, he said. “Had we thought from the very beginning that countries would support Ukraine with HIMARS or a fighter system? I don't think so. So we take it step by step,” he said. Sweden and neighboring Finland have joined NATO at a critical juncture for the transatlantic alliance, as member states find themselves at odds over how best to support Ukraine and how to deal with Moscow-friendly governments within its ranks, especially Hungary, Slovakia and Turkey. Unity within NATO, Bydén emphasized, will be critical in determining the tide of the war. “Deviation from unity right now will only play in the hands of Putin,” he said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn more. | | | | | BIDEN’S UKRAINE MESSAGING SHIFT: The Biden administration plans to make its commitment to Ukraine’s war efforts less of a public focus now that the supplemental has passed, our own ELI STOKOLS, JONATHAN LEMIRE and ALEX WARD report. Instead, the administration will pivot in the months leading up to the November ballot to address an electorate preoccupied with economic concerns. White House and campaign aides say that the cause of democracy will remain a central part of Biden’s reelection campaign — as a unifying thread to discuss everything from Ukraine and DONALD TRUMP to abortion, gun safety and education. That means they don’t foresee a relentless public relations push to bolster support for the war in Ukraine in the months ahead. “Now that the supplemental passed Congress, it’s naturally less of a salient issue,” a senior administration official told our colleagues. But failing to focus the country on why America’s continued backing of Ukraine matters runs real risks, foreign policy experts warn. It could further erode domestic support for the war itself, all but close the door on any additional funding, and complicate a key component of Biden’s own presidential legacy: maintaining America’s longstanding role as the central pillar of the global democratic order. Read: Biden condemns campus protest violence: No ‘right to cause chaos’ by our own ADAM CANCRYN RUSSIAN OIL TO NORTH KOREA: Moscow has quietly shipped refined petroleum to Pyongyang in levels that appear to violate U.N. Security Council rules, Kirby also told reporters today. “In March alone, Russia shipped more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to the DPRK. Given the close proximity of Russian and North Korean commercial ports, Russia could sustain these shipments indefinitely,” he said. North Korea has an annual import cap of 500,000 barrels under the U.N. rules. Kirby said the U.S. will continue to impose sanctions against all those working to facilitate arms and refined petroleum transfers between Russia and North Korea. TURKEY SUSPENDS ISRAEL TRADE: Ankara stopped all imports and exports to and from Israel as of today, a pair of Turkish officials told Bloomberg News’ FIRAT KOZOK. Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN has routinely bashed Israel and countries backing it, including the United States, for the military operation in the Gaza Strip over the past seven months. Relations between Turkey and fellow NATO members with Turkey have been rocky over the past year, and the drastic move to cut off trade could further exacerbate tensions. Israel slammed Erdoğan over the move. “This is how a dictator behaves, disregarding the interests of the Turkish people and businessmen, and ignoring international trade agreements,” Israeli Foreign Minister ISRAEL KATZ wrote on X. REBUILDING GAZA: It could take up some 80 years to rebuild the 80,000 homes estimated to have been destroyed in the Gaza Strip during Israel’s bombardment, according to a U.N. report released today. In the best case scenario, if the conflict stops now and supplies are delivered much quicker than they have been during previous conflicts in the Gaza Strip, there’s a chance the homes could be rebuilt by 2040, the report says, per Reuters’ EMMA FARGE. More than 10,000 people are also believed to be missing under rubble in Gaza, the U.N. humanitarian affairs office said, citing the Palestinian Civil Defense. Rising temperatures can accelerate the decomposition of bodies and the spread of disease, the U.N. said, calling for bulldozers, excavators and other equipment to be allowed into the territory to avert a public health catastrophe. FLOATING PIER WHEN? There’s no exact date for when the U.S. military-built pier off the coast of Gaza will be up and running, but it could be within days, barring weather concerns, NSC spokesperson Kirby told reporters today. “I haven't seen a date certain,” Kirby said, adding that much of the construction of the pier itself is complete. His remarks follow Alex and LARA SELIGMAN’s report on the matter Wednesday evening, in which a U.S. official and European official say the pier could be operational by the weekend. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | HUMAN IN THE LOOP, PLEASE: A senior U.S. official urged Russia and China to make guarantees, like the U.S. and others have, that artificial intelligence won’t make any decisions when it comes to nuclear weapons. The U.S., U.K. and France have all made a “clear and strong commitment” that only humans have control over nukes, and “we would welcome a similar statement by China and the Russian Federation,” State Department arms control official PAUL DEAN told reporters today, per Reuters’ GREG TORODE. Keep an eye out for possible news from China: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI discussed AI tech in late April, and they agreed to hold their first bilateral talks on artificial intelligence risks and safety in the coming weeks. CALLED OUT: NATO put out a strong statement Thursday condemning Russia for carrying out alleged “malign activities” against NATO members, including cyberattacks, electronic interference and disinformation. Russia has been linked to escalating cyber threats against NATO countries since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and more recently tied to GPS interference impacting flights in Estonia.
| | HAINES HITS CHINA: China is working to develop “its own form of multilateralism” as it deepens ties with Russia and Iran, DNI head Haines also told lawmakers today, honing in on how the countries bolster each other’s militaries. Haines noted Beijing’s provision of dual-use equipment to Moscow as “one of several factors that tilted the momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine in Moscow's favor” and allowed Russia to rebuild its military throughout the invasion. In the near future, Haines also expects China to field and deploy more advanced technologies, become better at joint operations and attempt to strengthen their nuclear forces and cyber capabilities “while also seeking to divide us from our allies in Europe and in the Indo Pacific.” ACCIDENTAL STRIKE: U.S. Central Command confirmed in a report today that U.S. forces accidentally killed a 56-year-old shepherd in Syria last year, mistaking him for a militant leader, The Washington Post’s ALEX HORTON and MEG KELLY report.
| | GAZAN REFUGEE REBUTTAL: Thirty-four Republican senators bashed the Biden administration for reportedly considering bringing Gazans to the U.S. as refugees. In a Wednesday letter to Biden released today, the lawmakers cite some Gazans’ support for the Hamas militant group as a primary concern, asking how they would be vetted for ties to the group. They also expressed frustration that the administration would consider such a move when Americans are still being held hostage by Hamas. “We are confused as to why the United States is willing to accept Gazan refugees when even nearby Arab countries supportive of the Palestinian cause refuse to take them in due to security concerns,” the senators wrote in the letter, led by Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), noting Egypt’s decision to close its border.
| | | |   | | | | | KURDS WANT MORE: The Kurds are calling on the U.S. to do more for its longtime ally in the Middle East in the wake of an attack on a major gas field in Iraqi Kurdish territory. TREEFA AZIZ, the representative of the Erbil-based Kurdistan Regional Government in Washington, told NatSec Daily: “we urge the United States to maintain its current troop presence in Iraq to serve as a stabilizing force and deterrent against violence, and for the U.S. to provide the Kurdistan Region with the defensive resources we need to protect innocent lives.” The Kurds have been at odds with Iraq’s central government as Baghdad has limited their ability to conduct their own elections, manage oil exports and maintain the elite Peshmerga fighting force. That tension has left Washington in a tricky position as it tries to strike the right balance between two of its closest partners in the region and as it negotiates with Baghdad over the future of the U.S.’s military. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), co-chair of the House Kurdish Caucus, told NatSec Daily that Biden “should always pressure Iraq to treat the Kurds better,” noting their role in the fights against both SADDAM HUSSEIN and ISIS. “They helped us save U.S. lives,” said Bacon, who served alongside the Kurds during the Iraq War. “Our successes were facilitated by the Kurds. It’s important to tell them that.” ABOUT THAT JAPAN COMMENT: The White House is downplaying Biden’s comment calling Japan “xenophobic” — lumping the ally in with China, Russia and India — on Wednesday night. “Why is China stalling so badly economically, why is Japan having trouble, why is Russia, why is India, because they're xenophobic. They don't want immigrants. Immigrants are what makes us strong,” Biden said at a fundraising event for his presidential campaign. Asked about the matter today, Kirby told reporters that “he's making a broader point about this country, our country. Our allies know very well how much the president respects them.”
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | — Solomon Islands lawmakers chose JEREMIAH MANELE as the island nation’s new prime minister. Manele, the former foreign minister, has pledged to continue the nation's policy that drew it closer to China, Reuters’ KIRSTY NEEDHAM reports. — The Center for Cybersecurity Policy and Law tapped DONNA DODSON and MARK BOHANNON as fellows. Dodson previously worked as chief cybersecurity officer at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, while Bohannon served as vice president of global public policy at Red Hat. — TIM CHILDRESS has joined the Software & Information Industry Association as chief financial officer. He joins the trade group from The German Marshall Fund, where he was executive vice president and CFO. — DAVID TALBOT, formerly of the Milken Institute, has joined the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Prosperity as its first executive director.
| | — The Economist: EMMANUEL MACRON on how to rescue Europe — JAMES CARDEN and KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL, The Nation: The Ukraine aid package heightens the risk of escalation — MARC THIESSEN, The Washington Post: Hungary’s leader should be radioactive to the right. Why does CPAC love him?
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn more. | | | | | — National Press Club, 9 a.m.: Updates and status of cases of U.S. Journalists AUSTIN TICE and EVAN GERSHKOVICH — Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: A new charm offensive? Unpacking Xi's visit to Europe — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Beyond economics: how U.S. policies can undermine national security goals — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The new era of U.S.-Japan strategic cooperation: a dialogue with Japanese lawmakers — Defense Priorities, 10 a.m.: Reexamining the U.S. role in European security — Washington Post Live, 10 a.m.: The state of global press freedom and the threats to democracy — Wilson Center's Mexico Institute and Canada Institute, 10 a.m.: The future of USMCA (United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement)," as part of the Mexico election series — Inter-American Dialogue, 10:30 a.m.: Navigating corruption: implications for Venezuela's future — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: The nuclear option: deciphering Russia's new space threat — National Press Club, 3 p.m.: An update on the case of journalist ALSU KURMASHEVA — The McCain Institute, 5 p.m.:Sedona Forum on "Securing Our Insecure World," focusing on "threats to global stability, such as climate change, economic uncertainty, and the ongoing threat of nuclear war” Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who doesn’t motivate or inspire us in the slightest. We also thank our producer, Giselle Ewing, who is the reason we get out of bed every morning. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
