| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Good morning and happy Monday. It’s Gary Fineout with a brief return engagement filling in this week for Kimberly Leonard. Can’t get there from here — Florida Democrats and Republicans have been going back and forth about whether the Sunshine State is really going to be “in play” during 2024. There’s been several data points thrown out about why it is — like the abortion access amendment on the ballot — and why it isn’t, namely the GOP’s significant voter registration advantage. Second guessing — Then there’s the polls, including recent surveys from Fox News and Florida Atlantic University, that suggest the election could be competitive, and others — such as one recently done by GOP pollster Ryan Tyson — that showed a double-digit lead for both Sen. Rick Scott and former President Donald Trump. Losing my religion — But if you want another reliable sign, then look no further than your television screen. Fall on me — It wasn’t that long ago that tens and tens of millions was spent on trying to sway Floridians. The 2020 election saw nearly $300 million worth of ads purchased in a state that many still viewed as a swing state. Low — There are no indications that will be repeated this year. An analysis tracking political ad spending by AdImpact shows that only about $369,000 has been spent on the presidential race during this entire cycle dating all the way back to January 2023. AdImpact also said it has not seen any ad reservations beyond August. Drive — The biggest spenders for this cycle are Scott, whose campaign has spent $5.68 million so far including more than $1 million during the month of June. Smart & Safe Florida, which is trying to get voters to approve an amendment allowing recreational marijuana, has spent $3.78 million. (Here’s some interesting context: The amount spent on ads in the highly competitive Jacksonville mayor’s race last year was $7.41 million.) Feeling Gravity’s Pull — Another highlight: That battle for the state Senate District 7 has already heated up considerably. More than $1.7 million has already been spent in a race that will likely be decided in the Republican primary, which includes state Rep. Tom Leek and former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar. This race — which has business interests and trial attorneys on opposing sides — could get quite expensive and bitter. Shaking through — The biggest takeaway, however, is if Florida is in play, the consultants and campaign teams — as well as Democrats nationally — aren’t acting like it is. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis spent the weekend in Omaha, Nebraska where both the Florida Gators and Florida State Seminoles are competing in the College World Series. A sportswriter covering the game heard DeSantis tell FSU Coach Link Jarrett he would return to Omaha if FSU made the championship series. Programming Note: We’ll be off on Wednesday for Juneteenth but will be back in your inboxes on Thursday. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget in the budget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com. Kimberly Leonard will be out June 14-21. POLITICO’s Gary Fineout will be anchoring Playbook this week, and you can reach him at gfineout@politico.com.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | WHERE IT ENDED — A Democrat in every district and a subdued DeSantis: The big takeaways from the qualifying deadline, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: What a difference two years — and an unsuccessful run for president — can make on Florida’s political landscape. The qualifying period for the 2024 elections ended on Friday, and it showed the impact of new leadership in the Florida Democratic Party — as well as more signs that Gov. Ron DeSantis does not wield the firm control over the state GOP that he enjoyed before he challenged former President Donald Trump to be the party's standard-bearer. This year, those close to DeSantis discussed finding a possible challenger to Rep. Randy Fine, a Brevard County legislator who feuded with the governor last year after Fine flipped his endorsement in the presidential race from DeSantis to Trump. Several sources — who were granted anonymity in order to discuss private, internal deliberations — said the governor and other top aides were angered by Sen. Ben Albritton’s decision to endorse Fine last month before qualifying had closed. Albritton, a Wauchula Republican, is in line to become the next Senate president. Yet qualifying ended on Friday with Fine, a wealthy and well-known Republican in his area, failing to draw a serious challenger in his GOP primary. Also worth noting: Republicans hold a supermajority in the Legislature and they are not expected to lose control of either chamber. But Democrats set a goal of finding challengers for every congressional and legislative seat on this year’s ballot and they achieved it. — “Carlos Smith elected, Bracy Davis snubs brother in busy Florida qualifying day,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Steven Lemongello — “Democrats, many from South Florida, win 11 legislative seats. They include Bernard, Daley, Hunschofsky, Skidmore,” by News Service of Florida’s Jim Turner — “Democrats field candidates in every Florida legislative race. Does it matter?” by Tampa Bay Times’ Lawrence Mower FOR YOUR RADAR — “Changes sought in felon voting,” by News Service of Florida’s Dara Kam: “State election officials on Friday listened to suggestions about how to update the process for convicted felons to seek what are known as advisory opinions about their eligibility to vote, with advocates calling for a procedure that provides "certainty" for people who have completed their sentences.”
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | FLORIDA MEN AND THE VEEPSTAKES — The never-ending speculation about former President Donald Trump’s soon-to-be-announced running mate got another moment this weekend. Trump at a Michigan campaign event told the group assembled there that Rep. Byron Donalds — who was sitting near Trump — “happens to be on the list of potential vice presidents. Would anybody like to see him? I noticed your name is very high on the list.” Donalds also got asked about being a potential vice president nominee on Meet the Press on Sunday and whether he would be ready to serve as commander-in-chief. “I think that I would have an ability to step in,” Donalds said. “I’m actually pretty intelligent. I can sift through issues really, really well. It’s about judgment. It’s about logic streams. It’s about how you make decisions at the end of the day.” During the same interview Donalds said that he and other Republicans would like the U.S. Supreme Court to “step into” Trump’s May conviction of 34 charges related to a scheme to influence the 2016 election.
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Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) speaks with a reporter as he departs a vote at the U.S. Capitol June 14, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images) | AP | Then there’s Sen. Marco Rubio, another potential Florida VP frontrunner. “How Rubio went from ‘Little Marco’ to Trump’s VP shortlist,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Alex Leary and Lindsay Wise: “Trump, whose campaign has done more vetting as his selection process goes on, gave Florida’s senior senator a lift home on his jet after visiting Washington on Thursday for meetings with lawmakers and business leaders. The following day, Rubio spoke at a rally celebrating Trump’s 78th birthday, marveling at how the billionaire doesn’t need to be in politics but puts up with the hassles and legal challenges ‘because he loves our country and he wants to save it from people that want to destroy it.’” More nuggets from the Journal: “Trump sees advantages to picking Rubio, people close to both men said, even as he hasn’t settled on a favorite, with a decision due by the time of the Republican convention in mid-July. He likes Rubio’s camera-friendly family, which includes four children, and thinks the fluent Spanish speaker could be an effective communicator on immigration.” BREAKING IT DOWN — Who’s on Trump’s VP list? How each pick could help - or hurt his campaign, by POLITICO’s Adam Wren, Alex Isenstadt and Meridith McGraw
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | HOW FLORIDA GOT HERE — Florida has unraveled climate goals for years. DeSantis stuck the latest blow, by POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie: Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday toured flood-ravaged areas of South Florida — and defended his recent move to scrap the state’s climate change goals. DeSantis toured flooded areas of Hollywood, where he declared a state of emergency Wednesday after parts of the region received more than 20 inches of rain this week. There, he brushed off recent criticism from Democrats for signing a bill last month that struck language directing the state to promote renewable energy and curb greenhouse gas emissions. IF IT MAY PLEASE THE COURT — Appellate court appears divided on DeSantis’ ‘Stop Woke’ law, by POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian and Andrew Atterbury: A panel of three federal appeals court judges appeared divided at a hearing Friday on the constitutionality of a Florida law signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis that would limit what state university professors say to students in the classroom. — “DeSantis quietly signs controversial condo bill. Owners are already threatening to sue,” by Miami Herald’s Alexandra Glorioso
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | HAPPENING TODAY — Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su is in Tamarac where she will attend a press conference announcing the launch of the Partnership for a Resilient America, a new program designed to train 1,000 workers for hurricane season. LIVE HEALTHY? — “Medical experts alarmed by out-of-hospital cesareans in Florida,” by The New York Times’ Roni Caryn Rabin: “A new law in Florida allowing doctors to perform cesarean sections in outpatient birthing centers has raised serious safety concerns among medical experts, who say the procedures carry a small but real risk of life-threatening complications and should not be undertaken outside hospitals…Florida’s law, the first of its kind in the nation, comes as the United States grapples with a maternal mortality rate that far exceeds those of comparable high-income countries.” UPDATE — “Reprimand settles former Duval teacher Amy Donofrio’s fight over Black Lives Matter flag,” by Florida Times-Union’s Steve Patterson: “A former Duval County teacher who could have been barred from teaching over displaying a Black Lives Matter flag at school left a state disciplinary hearing Thursday with a simple reprimand for another matter and no punishment for the flag. ‘It’s a great day for her,’ Amy Donofrio’s attorney, Mark Richard, said following the ruling by a five-person panel from Florida’s Education Practices Commission, which administers penalties affecting teachers’ licenses.” — “Women bypass Florida’s 6-week abortion ban through telehealth, mail and travel,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Caroline Catherman — “Current and former Miami-Dade police officers indicted in fatal shootout after 2019 kidnapping of UPS driver,” by South Florida Sun Sentinel’s David Lyons and Steve Svekis — “Dollar General shooting by racist gunman spurs state aid for poor Jacksonville neighborhoods,” by Florida Times-Union’s David Bauerlein — “In a small Miami suburb, plans to help street flooding are gutted by a DeSantis veto,” by Miami Herald’s Douglas Hanks — “Will a $1.6 billion highway save Central Florida’s Wekiva River - or doom it?” by Orlando Sentinel’s Kevin Spear
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