Baird’s necessities

Jun 17, 2024

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In today's edition:

→ Former Foreign Minister JOHN BAIRD shares notes on the year ahead.

→ The House hits the homestretch.

→ EU leaders meet in Brussels for talks on the continental bloc’s top jobs.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

John Baird, former minister of foreign affairs, at the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Toronto last year.

John Baird, former minister of foreign affairs, at the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Toronto last year. | Cole Burston, The Canadian Press

‘WE NEED TO HAVE MORE AMBITION’ — It’s been a while since we heard from JOHN BAIRD.

Playbook caught up with him on the sidelines of the BMO-Eurasia Group U.S.-Canada Summit. Baird is in the senior adviser stage of his career, holding that position at Bennett Jones and Eurasia Group.

He also sits on several corporate boards with eyes on the Canada-U.S. relationship, and acts as an "informal adviser" to Canadian Conservatives.

We talked about uncertainty south of the border, how a future Conservative government should prepare for cross-border relations, and why the White House isn’t Washington’s only game in town.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

How does the business community prepare for any number of scenarios?

Clearly, Canada had zero preparation for a Trump victory in 2016, but they responded very quickly and very effectively.

While the current president and prime minister obviously have a good personal relationship, it really hasn't produced much — the backing down on some of the IRA provisions, but that's a pretty small dividend in four years.

We need to have more ambition in the relationship. BRIAN MULRONEY was ambitious, wanting a free trade deal. He was ambitious, wanting an acid rain accord. People never want to go out there and commit themselves anymore.

There's always a risk of measuring the drapes too soon when you're a government in waiting. But the polls look good —

My party doesn't take long to mess things up. (Laughs.)

How soon should Conservatives be thinking about the relationship with the U.S.?

I think they're going to focus on earning the trust of Canadians. Part of that will be assembling a team. Part of that will be developing a platform.

The relationship with the United States, at the end of the day, always falls on the shoulders of the prime minister, whoever that is.

If you were advising Poilievre’s team, what would you tell them on Canada-U.S. issues?

You’ve got to be thinking about the NAFTA review. You’ve got to be thinking about the border. You’ve got to be thinking about defense spending, and the NATO target. You’ve got to be thinking about the national security relationship.

Traditionally, foreign policy doesn’t play a big role in elections. But STEPHEN HARPER said to me once that he was quite astonished when he became prime minister about how much time he had to spend on foreign policy.

There has been such a proliferation of international forums. The amount of times per year JUSTIN TRUDEAU would be at the table with JOE BIDEN is demonstrably more than it ever would have been even 25 or 50 years ago, between the G7, G20, NATO, the UN, APEC, and the Organization of American States.

Aside from the race for the White House, what else is on your radar this year?

So much focus for Canadians is on the race for the White House, we forget just how important the race for the Senate is. It’s a one-seat majority. One senator can cause huge problems. [Oregon Democrat] RON WYDEN stopped softwood lumber. MAX BAUCUS, when he was in the Senate from Montana, was really powerful.

Who controls the Senate matters. Power is so much more diffuse in the United States, whereas in Canada it’s so centralized.

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THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

HOMESTRETCH — The House calendar lists five sitting days until the summer break, but fishbowlers know the chamber always adjourns early in the final week. Place your bets on adjournment day. Senators typically stick around town a few days longer as they deal with last-minute bills.

— Status report: Parliament has passed 12 bills into law since September — fewer than the 20 pieces passed during the same period last year. As the pre-election clock ticks down, ministers are aware their window for turning priorities into laws of the land is closing.

— This week's priorities: Government House Leader STEVEN MACKINNON has identified four bills for debate:

→ Bill C-69 is Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s 672-page budget bill, which includes a whopping 24 measures highlighted in the minister’s press release — each of which is fodder for an “echo” announcement or BBQ small talk.

→ Bill C-65 amends election laws to remove barriers to voting, including by introducing a three-day election period. This is a plank of the Liberal-NDP governing deal.

C-65 would also push the next scheduled election date back a week to Oct. 27, 2025, which would allow MPs first elected in 2019 to remain in office long enough to qualify for a full pension. The NDP wants to ax that part of the bill.

→ Bill C-40 would create an independent commission that would oversee applications for review on the grounds of miscarriage of justice, to free wrongfully convicted individuals faster. C-40 was a personal priority of former Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI.

→ Bill C-26, first introduced in 2022 by former Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO, aims to “bolster cybersecurity across the financial, telecommunications, energy and transportation sectors.”

→ Not on the list: Bill C-64, which gets the legislative ball rolling on a national pharmacare program. Look for plenty of noise on that one as soon as Parliament returns in September.

FOREIGN INTERFERENCE — It's hard not to play the Hill's newest parlor game.

Redacted documents inevitably breed curiosity, particularly when they’re about national security and foreign interference.

When names of parliamentarians who “wittingly” served the interests of foreign states are blacked out, a big ol’ game of Clue breaks out — and every armchair national security expert thinks they know whose handle is protected by black ink.

The whispers were abundant all last week.

— Clear as mud: Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY and JAGMEET SINGH appeared to disagree about NSICOP's findings, though May subsequently kinda sorta agreed with Singh, the Globe's CAMPBELL CLARK reported. May will have more to say on the subject at a press conference this morning.

Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY told CTV's “Question Period” that the report does not name any sitting Liberal MPs,

Late last week, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU poured cold water on NSICOP's findings. “We made clear some concerns we had with the way that NSICOP did, drew conclusions,” the PM told reporters after the G7 summit. “I think that is an important part of the process.”

→ Meanwhile, in the Senate: Bill C-70, which introduces among other measures a foreign agent registry, is in the Red Chamber after a unanimous House vote at third reading. A Senate committee was already studying C-70, which sits at second reading in that chamber.

→ Tomato, tomato: There isn't even unanimity on how to pronounce the committee's name.

Most public officials say ENTZ-ih-cop in front of the cameras. The committee's longtime chair, DAVID MCGUINTY, has said that for years. So has the prime minister, and a long line of Cabinet ministers.

But some public servants have a different spin on NSICOP behind closed doors: ehn-ess-eye-cop.

→ We kid, but do we? Three recent reports on foreign interference have flagged serious communication issues between departments and officials. No wonder the government can't get on the same page about how to sound out a crucial committee's name.

— What's next: A whole lot more talk.

Singh won’t yank the NDP's support for the government, even as he accuses Trudeau of dropping the ball on foreign interference. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE still refuses to obtain the security clearance to read the unredacted report.

A message from Canadian Dental Association:

EU POLITICS — European leaders are expected to emerge from talks today in Brussels with an informal decision on who will hold the EU’s top jobs.

Our colleagues across the pond reported last week on the "strangely rapid consensus" forming on the four most important jobs up for grabs.

→ The favorites heading into the talks: Germany’s URSULA VON DER LEYEN as European Commission president; Portugal’s ANTÓNIO COSTA as European Council president; Malta’s ROBERTA METSOLA as the European Parliament boss; and Estonia’s KAJA KALLAS as foreign policy chief.

EU leaders will formalize their agreement at the European Council summit June 27-28.

— In France: MARINE LE PEN told reporters she wouldn't push for EMMANUEL MACRON's resignation as French president if her party wins snap parliamentary elections June 30 and July 7. "There will simply be cohabitation," Le Pen said.

— On Ukraine: DONALD TRUMP vowed to cut aid to Ukraine immediately if he wins November's presidential election. At a rally in Detroit, Trump called Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY "the greatest salesman of all time" for securing billions in aid in recent months — a backhanded compliment.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU announced a further C$52.4 million in aid for the Ukrainians at a Switzerland peace summit.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region. At 6:15 p.m., he will deliver remarks at a national Indigenous history month reception. At 6:50 p.m., he’ll speak at an event celebrating Filipino heritage month.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released public itineraries.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will participate in question period.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will hold a 10 a.m. press conference to talk about the unredacted report of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians and Bill C-226, her private member's bill that calls for a national strategy on environmental racism. The legislation cleared third reading in the Senate last week.

DULY NOTED

— The Collision tech conference is underway in Toronto. Organizers announced a high-profile host city switch to Vancouver in 2025.

11 a.m. NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG visits the Wilson Center in Washington for a virtual talk on what to expect from the alliance's Washington summit.

11 a.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX will stop by the House government operations and estimates committee to field questions on Supplementary Estimates (A).

11:10 a.m. Defense Minister BILL BLAIR will hold a media availability to provide an update on Canada’s work "to monitor the Russian navy flotilla ... and to demonstrate Canada’s military presence and capability around North America.”

8 p.m. It’ll be morning in Beijing for Canadian Ambassador to China JENNIFER MAY’s appearance at the House special Canada-China committee via video link. Foreign Affairs Deputy Minister DAVID MORRISON is also on the witness list.

MEDIA ROOM

— The poll the PMO doesn't want to see: Abacus Data has measured the lowest Liberal polling numbers since they took office in 2015. The pollster measures a 20-point Tory lead.

— Calgary residents have cut water consumption to a record low as the city is placed under a state of emergency, the Globe and MailNoted: Liberal reports.

— CBC News looks at Sen. MARTY DEACON’s efforts to curtail the unchecked promotion of sports betting.

— On CBC's “The House,” Gen. WAYNE EYRE reflects on more than three years as chief of the defense staff — a run as top soldier he initially thought would last only a few weeks.

— The Walrus features an excerpt from STEPHEN MAHER’s new book on Trudeau: “Ottawa’s response to the trucker protest was doomed from the start.”

— And from POLITICO’s NICHOLAS VINOCUR and VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT: “Here comes Europe's 'foreigners out!' generation.”

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: European VIPs head to Canada

In other news for Pro readers:

— Trump haunts stalled global climate talks.

— Labour pledges to make UK the world’s ‘green finance capital.’

— Scope of avian flu spread in cows is still not known.

— Meta ordered to suspend plan to hoover Europeans’ data for its AI tools.

— US, UK, Canada accuse Russia of attempting to interfere in Moldovan elections.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Bluesky VP RAPHAEL BRASS and Business Council of Canada VP HOWARD FREMETH. Also celebrating: former Cabmin STEVEN FLETCHER, former Ontario Premier ERNIE EVES and Quebec MNA JEAN-FRANÇOIS ROBERGE (50!).

Your Playbook host, NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY, also completes a trip around the sun.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: At a recent PIERRE POILIEVRE fundraiser at the Andaz in the ByWard Market, per Elections Canada records: Claridge Homes developer NEIL MALHOTRA, Rocket Companies CTO SHAWN MALHOTRA, former Ottawa Mayor LARRY O'BRIEN, Make Housing Affordable co-founder DEAN TESTER and Tory MP SCOTT AITCHISON.

Noted: Liberal MP WAYNE LONG used his SO31 last week to pay tribute to former Sen. JOSEPH DAY, who died last month. “Joe led positive change at every level.”

Movers and shakers: ALEX STEINHOUSE, a staffer to federal justice ministers for nearly seven years, starts today as counsel at Fasken in Montreal. He'll focus on government relations, political law, Indigenous law, and intellectual property.

U.S. Consul General LYRA CARR is leaving her Halifax post after three years for a new posting in Honduras … Albanian Ambassador to Canada ERMAL MUÇA is leaving Ottawa for a new job as his country’s envoy in Japan.

Media mentions: The Narwhal and Toronto Star received the Michener Award for Public Service Journalism for their reporting on the Ontario Greenbelt scandal.

MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF, The New York Times' former Brussels bureau chief, now heads up the paper's Canada bureau.

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ON THE HILL

→ Find House committees here.

→ Keep track of Senate committees here.

— Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT will virtually meet with provincial and territorial counterparts to discuss “key priorities concerning Canada’s labor market.”

11 a.m. DAVID PERRY of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute will be the lead-off witness at the House national defense committee as it studies the defense policy update.

11 a.m. The PBO will be at the House government operations and estimates committee.

11 a.m. The House industry committee will take Bill C-352 through clause-by-clause consideration.

11 a.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee will study Bill C-61.

11 a.m. The House veterans’ affairs committee will hear from department officials as it considers recognition of Persian Gulf veterans.

1:30 p.m. The Senate energy, environment and natural resources committee will meet to continue its study on Bill C-49 with witnesses from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers and Ecology Action Centre.

3:30 p.m. Health Minister MARK HOLLAND will be in the hot seat at the House health committee to take questions about spending related Supplementary Estimates (A).

3:30 p.m. The House natural resources committee will begin its gathering behind closed doors. At 4:30 p.m., it will turn on the cameras to study the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion with help from Canada Energy Regulator officials.

3:30 p.m. The House human resources committee will study federal housing investments.

3:45 p.m. The House official languages committee will use a fourth meeting to continue debate on the motion of Bloc MP MARIO BEAULIEU and on an amendment by Liberal MP DARRELL SAMSON.

6:30 p.m. The House special Canada-China committee will conduct its business in camera until 8 p.m. when it hears from Canada’s ambassador to China.

Behind closed doors: The House justice committee will meet to get drafting instructions for its Islamophobia report; the House public accounts committee’s agenda and procedure subcommittee will meet to talk “committee business.”

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: “It was a jolting reminder that we as a city have got big-city problems,” former B.C. Premier CHRISTY CLARK said of the Stanley Cup riot that happened in Vancouver on June 15, 2011.

Props to JENN KEAY, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MARC LEBLANC, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, KEVIN BOSCH, BOB GORDON and MARCEL MARCOTTE.

Today’s question: On this date in recent history, U.S. President JOE BIDEN signed a federal holiday into law. “I think this will go down, for me, as one of the greatest honors I will have had as president,” he said at the time. What was the day?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

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