| | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard | BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Florida Panthers' 30-year wait over! Cats make history, win Stanley Cup,” via CBS News. “The Florida Panthers made history Monday night in front of more than 19,000 fans at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, beating the Edmonton Oilers 2-1 to win their first Stanley Cup.”
|  President Joe Biden arrives on stage to speak during a campaign stop at Hillsborough Community College’s Dale Mabry campus on April 23, 2024, in Tampa, Florida. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | Good morning and welcome to Tuesday. President Joe Biden and Democrats have been insisting that Florida’s gettable for them in November. But not everyone seems to have gotten the memo. In an interview with Puck News’ John Heilemann released Monday, Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon responded bluntly when asked if Florida was a battleground state: “No.” Heilemann then joked that he “was afraid you were going to lie” about Florida’s status. (The exchange about battleground states starts at the 25-minute mark of the podcast.) The comments seemed to throw Florida politics into a tailspin, with even many Democrats viewing them as contradicting an April memo from Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez that declared Florida “winnable.” “Not a lot of staffers, consultants or organizers are in a position to say it, but this was such an unnecessary, demoralizing gut punch,” Florida-based communications consultant Kevin Cate wrote on X about the comments, while urging fellow Democrats to keep up their work “and one day, we will flip it.” Democrats have spent months pointing to signs of change in a state that has raced away from them since Trump carried it by a bit over 3 points in 2020. They won the mayorship in Jacksonville last year and flipped a state House seat in a special election in January. The party got candidates to run in every forthcoming legislative race and the Biden campaign hired roughly two dozen state-level staff. Florida’s Democratic-led effort to enshrine abortion rights is far out-fundraising the opposition. Despite O’Malley Dillon’s comments, Dan Kanninen, Biden-Harris battleground states director, maintained in a statement that Florida was “in play for President Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot” and that the campaign “continues to scale up our presence and investments into the state.” Abhi Rahman, a deputy communications director for the Democratic National Committee, said the state party was “undergoing a resurgence,” while Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried urged people not to “count Florida out” and said the party was building for the long term. But Florida Democrats haven’t seen a surge in voter registrations. And while a recent Fox News poll has Trump leading Biden by only four points, Ryan Tyson, who’s done polling for Gov. Ron DeSantis and has a track record of accuracy in the state, recently had Trump ahead by 10 points, Florida Politics reported. On top of that, there’s not a lot of money being spent in Florida by either side, as POLITICO’s Gary Fineout wrote in Playbook last week. No matter the rhetoric, high spending is one of the most important indications of whether a state is competitive. Separately, some of Biden’s policies toward countries like Cuba risk undermining Democratic overtures in the state, given that they threaten to turn off South Florida Hispanics — a crucial, influential voting bloc. And while the Biden campaign has done several splashy events featuring the president and the vice president (and quite a few surrogates), members of the Trump campaign have also been on the ground at grassroots events quietly building the base, but not publicizing it. Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes told Playbook that he saw O’Malley Dillon’s comments as “a noteworthy and rare bit of honesty” and took issue with news stories elevating “the bogus Biden narrative of the state being ‘in play’ for months.” At another point in the podcast, O’Malley Dillon said she had “a point of view on Florida” but didn’t return to it, instead calling herself “bullish on North Carolina” and explaining why. Even before the O’Malley Dillon line on Monday, some long-time Democratic analysts and consultants in Florida had grown weary of what they viewed as an all-too optimistic viewpoint coming from Democratic leaders such as Jaime Harrison, the DNC chair who was in Tallahassee last week. “Democrats are gaslighting Democrats about Florida,” said Fernand Amandi, the South Florida communications and political consultant well known for his cable news appearances. But Steve Schale, who was state director when then-candidate Barack Obama won the state in 2008, cautioned against writing off Florida, given that Georgia and Arizona had not been in play at this point in 2020 either. He insisted Florida was in a tier below the core battlegrounds and said for the Biden campaign officials to really invest here they'd need to see positive trends in polling, voter registrations and vote-by-mail applications. A decision about whether to “double down,” he added, might not come until August or even September. — Gary Fineout contributed reporting . WHERE’S RON? Gov. Ron DeSantis has a press conference in Umatilla, Florida, at 10 a.m. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com
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Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | |  | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | … DESANTIS SIGNS MORE BILLS INTO LAW … — “Gov. DeSantis approves language allowing recurring funding for private Jewish school security,” reports Florida Politics’ Jesse Scheckner. “Gov. Ron DeSantis has signed a measure allowing lawmakers to make security funding for private Jewish day schools a recurring part of the state budget. The legislation (HB 1109) will direct the Florida Department of Education to establish a regular funding model for guards, cameras, fencing, impact windows, perimeter lighting and related security costs at Jewish schools.” — “Gov. DeSantis OKs adding definition of antisemitism to Florida law,” reports Florida Politics’ Jesse Scheckner. “Gov. Ron DeSantis approved legislation (HB 187) providing that Florida defines antisemitism as ‘a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews,’ and rhetorical and manifestations of such hatred ‘directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals, their property, community institutions and religious facilities.’” — “Up, up and away? Nope. Gov. DeSantis signs Florida ban on balloon releases,” by Ana Goñi-Lessan of USA Today Network — Florida. “Current law allows nine or fewer balloons to be released within a 24-hour period, but, as previously reported, this latest bill classifies the intentional release of all balloons inflated with a gas lighter than air as littering. People who violate the law will be subject to a $150 fine. Of that, $50 will go to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection's solid waste management trust fund. For balloons over 15 pounds, fines can reach up to $1,000.” — “DeSantis signed nearly 200 laws this year. Here are the highlights,” by News Service of Florida. — “Gov. DeSantis gives state workers 4-day Independence Day holiday,” reports Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles.
|  Florida State Rep. Carolina Amesty is seen during a joint session of the Florida State Legislature at the Florida State Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla., Jan. 9, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images | ACTIVE INVESTIGATION — “FDLE confirms investigation involving Orlando-area Rep. Amesty,” reports the Orlando Sentinel’s Annie Martin. “The Florida Department of Law Enforcement has an active investigation involving state Rep. Carolina Amesty and her family’s nonprofit school, Central Christian University, the agency confirmed Monday. Agency spokesman Jensen Rayburn declined to provide further detail about the probe, which follows an Orlando Sentinel probe into Amesty’s background, credentials and conduct in her former role as an administrator at her family’s small school on North Hiawassee Road in Orange County. Amesty, a Republican, was elected to the Florida House in 2022 to represent a district that takes in much of southwest Orange, including Walt Disney World, and part of northwest Osceola County.”
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | ‘MILESTONES’ — “Kenyan police advance team arrives in Haiti. First security force on its way,” reports Jacqueline Charles of the Miami Herald. “A small advance team from Kenya was in Port-au-Prince on Monday to prepare for the long-awaited arrival of the first contingent of elite police officers from the East African nation to help Haiti combat criminal armed gangs as part of an armed international force. The Kenyans departed Nairobi Monday evening and could arrive in Port-au-Prince as soon as Tuesday, multiple sources told the Miami Herald. But they warned that the timing could change given security concerns in the troubled country.” RESIGNED — “The president of Florida Memorial University, South Florida’s only HBCU, steps down,” reports Jimena Tavel of the Miami Herald. “After five years leading the only historically Black college or university in South Florida, Jaffus Hardrick, the president of Florida Memorial University, stepped down from his post because of an unspecified health reason. The private university’s Board of Trustees broke the news in an email sent Sunday to students, faculty and staff that Hardrick, 62, resigned.” ANDREW WARREN’S GOP OPPONENT — “Hillsborough state attorney’s office expands gun violence unit amid recent shootings,” reports the Tampa Bay Times’ Lesley Cosme Torres. “Hillsborough State Attorney Suzy Lopez announced Monday that her office is expanding its gun violence unit amid a rise of gun-related crimes in the Tampa Bay area. According to Lopez, the expansion will allow prosecutors to work more collaboratively with law enforcement. Prosecutors in the unit respond to gun-related incidents alongside police to understand each case from the very beginning.”
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | | | 
Jack Smith (left) and Aileen Cannon (right) are shown in a side-by-side. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP; Southern District of Florida | — “Proposed gag order in classified documents case would stifle Trump in presidential debate, his lawyers say,” by Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO. FIGHTING BACK — “Florida Democrats lambaste Republicans, Trump and Rick Scott on anniversary of Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade,” reports Anthony Man and Abigail Hasebroock of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. “Public opinion polling — as well as results in other states’ elections and referendums in the two years since Dobbs — suggest the public broadly supports abortion rights and opposes the prospect of further limitations on reproductive health such as in vitro fertilization and contraception.” — “How Florida’s Amendment 2 could affect hunting and fishing,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Nina Moske. UNION BACKED — “Democrat secures key primary endorsement in race for U.S. Sen. Rick Scott's seat,” by Mark Harper of the Daytona Beach News-Journal. “Stanley Campbell, a Palm City businessman, has landed the state AFL-CIO's endorsement. Rich Templin, director of politics and public policy at the AFL-CIO Florida, said the endorsement required a two-thirds vote by members at an endorsement conference over the weekend.” NAME GAME — “State attorney candidate’s ‘Fighter’ nickname barred from ballot,” by Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel. “An Orlando lawyer running for state attorney who built his legal brand as ‘Fighter Law’ is now fighting to keep that nickname on the ballot. Thomas Feiter, a Republican, wanted voters to see Thomas Feiter (‘Fighter’) in the Aug. 20 primary election, but the Florida Department of State denied his request. Feiter said he’s included ‘Fighter’ with his name since college because people frequently mispronounced his last name. His downtown law firm is called ‘Fighter Law.’” REINSTALLED — “A candidate’s bounced check means another Miami-Dade commissioner gets four more years,” reports Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald. “René Garcia, who represents parts of Hialeah and surrounding areas as the District 13 commissioner, was declared ‘unopposed’ in the Aug. 20 election after challenger Ian Anthony Medina did not replace a bounced $360 filing check he delivered hours before the noon qualifying deadline on June 11.”
| | DATELINE D.C. | | FLORIDA IMPLICATIONS — The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case on transgender medicine for minors, report POLITICO’s Kierra Frazier and Josh Gerstein. “The justices will review the constitutionality of a Tennessee law, enacted last year, that bans hormone therapy and puberty blockers for transgender minors. The court’s decision will affect a wave of other state laws passed in recent years [including Florida’s] that restrict gender-affirming care for minors. The justices will likely hear the case in the fall, close to the November presidential election.”
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — “Large wave of Saharan dust is heading right for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico,” per Ian Cassette of Fox 35 Orlando. — “Florida family whose roof hit by debris from space station sues NASA for damages,” per CBS News Miami. BIRTHDAYS: Florida Supreme Court Justice Carlos Muñiz … state Sen. Bryan Avila … South Miami mayor and former state Rep. Javier Fernández. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
