| | | | |  | | By Phelim Kine, Joe Gould, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Miles Herszenhorn | |  Earlier this week, Russian leader Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged to immediately provide each other with military assistance if their countries were to be invaded. | Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP | With help from Maggie Miller, Connor O’Brien and Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric South Korea and the Biden administration are racing to renew a high-stakes defense-related deal by year-end to avoid harder bargaining with a possible Trump administration in 2025. Seoul is pushing Washington to do an early renewal of a bilateral cost-sharing deal — called the Special Measures Agreement — that helps pay for the 28,000 U.S. troops based in South Korea to deter potential North Korean aggression. The current SMA expires at the end of 2025, but the prospect of a second Trump administration has spurred Seoul to try to renew the deal by the end of this year. State has acknowledged that talks are underway — the third round wrapped up last Wednesday — but won’t say whether they are aiming for a year-end deadline. But former U.S. officials warn that Seoul’s strategy risks reprisals if DONALD TRUMP wins in November. They could include punitive financial burdens for South Korea that strain ties between Seoul and Washington amid rising regional tensions with both China and North Korea. North Korean soldiers have crossed into South Korean territory three times in the last month, as Pyongyang seeks to fortify the ironically named Demilitarized Zone. It also comes as Russia and North Korea deepen their military ties. Earlier this week, Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN and North Korean leader KIM JONG UN pledged to immediately provide each other with military assistance if their countries were to be invaded. South Korea has reason to worry. Trump has complained that Seoul pays “almost nothing” for those troops and that he expects it to pay more. “I want South Korea to treat us properly … we've essentially paid for much of their military, free of charge. And they agreed to pay billions of dollars. And now, probably now that I’m gone, they're paying very little,” Trump told Time Magazine in April. Seoul’s goal now is to avoid a replay of the bruising SMA renewal negotiations with the Trump administration in 2020, in which the U.S. demanded a massive increase in South Korea’s share of those costs. South Korea is “hedging against a possible Trump two administration — they've seen this movie and it was very painful,” said HARRY HARRIS, a former naval aviator who served as U.S. ambassador to South Korea during the Trump administration. Trump made an “inappropriate” demand that Seoul raise its annual cost-sharing contribution to $5 billion from the around $900 million that it was previously paying, Harris said. Seoul responded with diplomatic foot-dragging in hopes of a better deal if Biden won the 2020 election. “They were facing this $5 billion bogey … so they bet on a change in administration and delayed [renewal] until 2021,” said Harris. Other former officials said that an early renewal of the SMA isn’t worth the risk. “It’s a bad idea — If Trump wins he will negate [the SMA] immediately [because] SMA allows either party to back out with advance notice,” said VICTOR CHA, former National Security Council director for Japan and Korea. That could sour bilateral ties at the outset of the new administration. “Trump will also be angry with South Korea” if they do an early SMA renewal, Cha said. An early renewal of the SMA won’t shield Seoul from possible new financial burdens imposed by a possible second Trump presidency. “There are countless ways that President Trump, should he be elected, could try to make South Korea pay more — asking them to pay for U.S. participation in joint [military] exercises is on the comes to mind,” said former senior U.S. foreign service officer MARK TOKOLA, who’s currently vice president of the Korea Economic Institute of America.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | ANOTHER STATE DEPARTURE: ANDREW MILLER, the State Department’s deputy assistant secretary for Israeli-Palestinian affairs, is leaving the department. A State Department official confirmed Miller’s departure, which was first reported by the Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON, to our own NAHAL TOOSI. Miller has had some reservations about the Biden administration’s overall approach in dealing with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, but he told colleagues today that his exit — effective in a few days — is because of personal reasons, not policy disagreements, the official said. Still, Miller is the highest-level official working directly on U.S. policy toward Israel to quit amid the war in Gaza. A handful of other U.S. officials have left, citing frustrations about the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis. Miller is widely respected and seen as having a nuanced grasp of the issues. It was not immediately clear who would step in for him at the department. Miller’s departure comes as Israel continues its assault on the southern Gazan city of Rafah, according to Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI. Israeli shelling killed 25 people in the vicinity of the Mawasi camp, according to Palestinian officials, where refugees from Rafah evacuated ahead of Israel’s invasion. The Netanyahu government has also snubbed European requests for meetings to discuss human rights concerns, own ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN reports. Israel is slow-walking the meetings, which are required under the terms of a mutual agreement with Europe, because it wants to wait for its ally Hungary to assume the presidency of the Council of the EU. TALKING (NUCLEAR WAR)HEADS: China and the United States held informal conversations about the use of nuclear weapons in March, resuming conversations about nuclear arms between the two superpowers for the first time in five years, Reuters’ GREG TORODE, GERRY DOYLE, and LAURIE CHEN report. During the talks, which were held over two days in Shanghai, members of the Chinese delegation told American representatives that Beijing would not threaten Taiwan with the use of nuclear weapons. MEANWHILE, IN RUSSIA: Putin pledged to keep developing Russia’s nuclear arsenal as a deterrent during a speech today to a crowd of graduates from military, intelligence and law enforcement academies at the Kremlin, according to Reuters. “We plan to further develop the nuclear triad as a guarantee of strategic deterrence and to preserve the balance of power in the world,” Putin said, referring to Russia’s arsenal of missiles that can be launched from the land, air and sea. THE EU TALKS BEGIN: The European Union will begin membership negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine on June 25, after the EU approved the negotiating framework earlier today, our own KETRIN JOCHECOVÁ reports. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and Moldovan President MAIA SANDU hailed their countries’ progress to EU membership in statements today even as both countries face a lengthy process before they can officially join the union. “Millions of Ukrainians, and indeed generations of our people, are realizing their European dream,” Zelenskyy said. “Ukraine is returning to Europe, where it has belonged for centuries, as a full-fledged member of the European community.” DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring our own MILES HERSZENHORN, who recently joined our little team and we think you should get to know. When he is not working on the most important newsletter in the world of national security, Miles can be found at Supra drinking a Spicy Zelensky and snacking on khachapuri. But if it’s not a cocktail night, Miles likes to enjoy an Estrella Galicia or La Chouffe at dinner. They do wonders, he tells us, to help ease the pain of a long-suffering New York Mets fan. Cheers, Miles! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Bringing every domain closer, no matter the distance.
Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY? Former President DONALD TRUMP said that Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons during an interview on Thursday with the All-In podcast. Trump said he wanted to reach a deal with Iran — an Iran nuclear deal, if you will — to prevent the country from developing nuclear capabilities. “We would have made a deal good for everybody. Everybody would have been happy,” Trump said. “The main thing is, Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.” In 2018, Trump pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement reached with Iran under the Obama administration to limit Tehran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions.
| | KASPERSKY’S NO GOOD, VERY BAD WEEK: The Treasury Department formally sanctioned a dozen of Russian cybersecurity company Kaspersky Labs’ top officials on Friday — one day after the group’s antivirus software was blacklisted in the U.S., our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. The individuals sanctioned by the Biden administration include seven members of Kaspersky’s Board of Directors, among whom are ANDREI TIKHONOV, the company’s chief operating officer; IGOR CHEKUNOV, Kaspersky’s chief legal officer; and ANDREI EFREMOV, Kaspersky’s chief business development officer. However, the Treasury Department stopped short of sanctioning Kaspersky Labs itself or company CEO EUGENE KASPERSKY. The Commerce Department on Thursday added Kaspersky and its affiliate companies to its Entity List due to concerns that Kaspersky’s antivirus products could be used by the Russian government for cyber espionage. After July 20, the company can no longer enter into any new U.S. licensing agreements, and will be banned from providing software updates to U.S. customers after Sept. 29. A spokesperson for Kaspersky did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the sanctions. The company put out a statement Thursday strongly condemning the Commerce Department’s decision, vowing to “pursue all legally available options to preserve its current operations and relationships.”
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | WICKER’S MANILA PUSH: The top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee wants to see the Biden administration quickly disperse billions in military assistance to the Philippines in the face of mounting tensions in the South China Sea. As our colleagues at Morning Defense report (for Pros!), Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) is arguing that the Philippines and Taiwan are facing the most immediate threats from China and that as the administration is working to allocate aid for Indo-Pacific partners, it should focus on the needs of Manila. “We very much need to be working with our allies there in a peace-through-strength strategy to prevent war,” he told reporters. Wicker isn’t the only lawmaker beating the drums about the threats Manila is facing. On the other side of the Capitol, top Democrats and Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee condemned Chinese clashes with Philippines vessels in the disputed territory. “These provocative actions to prevent the Philippines from conducting a lawful operation in the South China Sea are destabilizing and threaten regional peace,” said Reps. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), AMI BERA (D-Calif.) and YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.) in a joint statement. “We stand with our treaty ally, the Philippines, and call on Beijing to immediately stop its reckless and deliberate use of intimidation through water cannons, ramming and blocking in the South China Sea.” DEFENSE INDUSTRY WOES: Weapons manufacturers on both sides of the Ukraine war are struggling to source the needed talent and components to meet the demands of the battlefield. According to Axios’ HOPE KING and COLIN DEMAREST, European and American defense companies are on their biggest hiring sprees since the Cold War. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics have nearly 6,000 roles to fill. Other companies are expected to add upwards of 37,000 positions to their ranks. Meanwhile, Russian defense companies are struggling to source key computer parts needed to launch and deploy weapons. An analysis from the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) finds that Moscow is increasingly turning to China for foreign-produced computer numeric control machine tools, which are needed to produce equipment ranging from mortar rounds to precision-guided munitions.
| | BOWMAN’S DAMASCUS MOMENT: Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) wasn’t always one of the most fervent critics of Israel in the House Democratic Caucus — as he told our own CALDER McHUGH, he was converted into a supporter of Palestine on a trip to Israel in 2021 sponsored by the liberal Zionist group J-Street. Calder writes: “What he took from five days of meetings and interviews, over boxed lunches and fancy dinners, was that there was no political will at the top of the Israeli government to pursue a two-state solution or engage in any sort of sustainable peace process — and that America’s willingness to send significant aid to Israel without any conditions attached was therefore unwise.” It was a reversal for the school principal turned legislator, who ousted one of the Israel lobby’s biggest supporters in Congress, Rep. ELIOT ENGEL (D-N.Y.). Unlike other members of the “Squad,” Bowman supported U.S. military aid to Israel, including funding for the Iron Dome. But his transformation on the issue might cause him to lose his primary next Tuesday, as he faces a well-funded challenger and criticism from Jewish voters in his district. MANCHIN, DEMS BUCK BIDEN ON BUDGET BOOST: Senate Democrats' attempts to fend off a Republican effort to add billions of dollars to the Pentagon budget in their defense policy bill last week were foiled by a familiar opponent: Democrat-turned-Independent JOE MANCHIN. Manchin and three Senate Armed Services Democrats — Sens. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL of Connecticut, JACKY ROSEN of Nevada and TAMMY DUCKWORTH of Illinois — defected to approve a $25 billion boost to the National Defense Authorization Act topline during the panel's closed-door deliberations, our colleagues CONNOR O'BRIEN and JOE GOULD report (for Pros!). The move is seen as a rebuke of Biden's budget and undermines top Democrats’ push to pair any defense spending increases with a similar boost to domestic programs. And it's the latest blow to Democrats' agenda from Manchin, whose vote proved to be the tipping point that convinced other Democratic senators to join in. “Joe was critical because once he did, I think others felt they could, and for reasons I don’t think related to the substance [of the boost] but you can talk to them. Joe made it clear to me, ‘I’m an independent, I want to send a signal,’” a clearly frustrated Armed Services Chair JACK REED said.
| | | |   | | | | | NETANYAHU’S WEAPONS CRUSADE: Netanyahu is continuing his dayslong feud with the Biden administration over alleged delays in weapons shipments, despite repeated dismissals of his claims from U.S. officials. In an interview with Punchbowl’s JAKE SHERMAN, the Israeli leader said: “We began to see that we had some significant problems emerging a few months ago” with receiving ammunition and weapons. But Netanyahu provided no evidence to back up his claims and he went on to accuse the administration of not trying to resolve the purported delays and issues. The State Department referred Nahal to its previous comments. State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said yesterday: “I’m not exactly sure what the prime minister is talking about or what he was trying to accomplish. All I can tell you is what the secretary told the prime minister directly in his meeting in Israel last week, which is that our commitment to Israel’s security is sacrosanct.” “We have proved that, not just with words, but with deeds, and I don’t think it’s productive to engage in an intense public back and forth about this,” Miller continued. LAWMAKERS TALK BINANCE EXEC: Two lawmakers met with jailed Binance executive TIGRAN GAMBARYAN in a Nigerian prison and reiterated calls for his release, according to Reuters. Reps. FRENCH HILL (R-Ark.) and CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Penn.) visited Gambaryan, who has been detained since March on tax evasion charges, and called for his immediate release on humanitarian grounds. Binance, which disputes the allegations against him from the Nigerian government, previously stated the executive had contracted malaria and pneumonia. ARMENIA JOINS THE CLUB: Armenia has become the latest country to recognize a Palestinian state, according to the Associated Press. In its statement, the Armenian foreign ministry condemned both Israel’s conduct of the war and Hamas’ treatment of civilians. “Armenia deplores using civilian infrastructure as shields during armed conflicts and violence towards civilian populations,” it said. Armenia added that it would back a U.N. cease-fire resolution and support a two-state solution. Israel reacted sharply to the news, with an Israeli foreign ministry spokesperson saying it “summoned the Ambassador of Armenia to Israel for a harsh reprimand conversation” over the recognition.
| | — Mexican President-elect CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM named JUAN RAMÓN DE LA FUENTE as the country’s next foreign minister. He was previously Mexico’s envoy to the United Nations. — ANKITA VERMA is now adviser for strategic comms for special envoy ABBY FINKENAUER at the State Department. She previously was deputy comms director for Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.).
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Clear insight means stronger foresight.
When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | — STACIE PETTYJOHN, HANNAH DENNIS and MOLLY CAMPBELL, Center for a New American Security: Swarms over the Strait — DAVID POLANSKY, War on the Rocks: Hypocrisy Is not a real problem in world politics — NATAN ODENHEIMER, RONEN BERGMAN and PATRICK KINGSLEY, The New York Times: Israeli official describes secret government bid to cement control of West Bank
| | — Council on Foreign Relations, 8:15 a.m.: Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL delivers keynote address about “Sustaining U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific.” — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Israeli-Saudi normalization: An effective incentive for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking? — Center for a New American Security, 11 a.m.: Book discussion about “The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within.” — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: The state of Russia's defense industry after two years of war and sanctions. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who wants us to shoulder more financial burdens as part of this newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Gigi Ewing, who is helping us reach a better deal with Rosie. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
