| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick| Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today’s edition: → Somewhere, public servants are quietly starting to consider a new era. → TIFF MACKLEM's news clippings are about to spike. → Happy 45th spin around the sun to PIERRE POILIEVRE.
|  | For your radar | | TRANSITION TIME — When a new government takes power, public servants are waiting. Some have been thinking about that day for many months. Even if they're not yet planning in earnest, bureaucrats at the Privy Council Office have the possibility of transition on their minds. This work will eventually preoccupy JOHN HANNAFORD, the clerk who oversees the effort. Hannaford will likely tap a senior PCO official as the transition lead. — Why this matters: The government doesn't take a break when one party loses and another fills the void. A seamless transition of power orients and advises the new crew as soon as they walk into their offices. In his book on government transitions, DAVID ZUSSMAN says that particular job often falls to the deputy secretary to the Cabinet responsible for plans and consultations. The dep sec on governance who leads the work on the esoterically titled “machinery of government” — aka the structures and processes that keep everything functioning — also plays a serious role in transition planning. These days, MOLLIE JOHNSON is the dep sec for plans. She arrived in PCO from Natural Resources, where she was associate deputy minister under then-DM Hannaford. She also served as special adviser to the PCO clerk on decarbonization. The machinery point-person is MALA KHANNA, who has held senior public service roles for more than a decade and arrived at the PCO in February. — More work to come: Zussman, a former senior bureaucrat who assisted with transitions in the 1990s, traces the transition ramp-up from the pre-election phase to swearing-in. As they plan for various outcomes, the public servants will be keen to learn more about how PIERRE POILIEVRE runs his office. They'll also learn the ins and outs of Conservative policy priorities, preparing to hit the ground running on implementation. → Useful reading: ANDREW LAWTON's new Poilievre biography, "A Political Life," probes the Tory leader's management style as a Harper-era Cabinet minister (pp 100-101) and leadership campaigner (pp 146-150). Just in case bureaucrats need a crash course. → Exhibit A: Lawton writes that leadership candidate Poilievre would canvass a room of advisers for views on an issue — even the non-experts on the subject matter at hand. He'd hear them all out and decide on his own. Might be worth subscribing to IAN BRODIE's well-read weekly newsletter, which drops subtle policy and governance tips to Tories prepping for power. → For instance: In a recent edition, Brodie suggested a certain ascendant party should consult energy security analyst JOE CALNAN on energy and climate policy. — The official line: PCO didn't directly answer Playbook's questions about transition prep work. Here's what a spokesperson told us: "The Clerk of the Privy Council, supported by PCO senior officials, coordinates government transition planning. In a minority parliament, the non-partisan public service maintains a high level of readiness to undertake transition work on short notice. "Various officials undertake this work on an ongoing basis, in addition to fulfilling their core duty to implement the Government of Canada's agenda. Once an election is called, the focus shifts to transition planning."
| | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | |  All eyes on Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. | Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images | RATE WATCH — Welcome to The Week of TIFF. A weary nation turns to the Bank of Canada governor for hope of a future with lower mortgage payments. — Announcement pressure: Wednesday brings the bank's next move on its policy interest rate that impacts prime rates at financial institutions. → The betting odds: "With the market pricing in more than a two-thirds chance of a cut, it would be a larger surprise at this point if rates aren’t eased in June," CIBC's AVERY SHENFELD wrote in a forecast. Shenfeld's headline: "The first cut isn’t the deepest." BMO's DOUG PORTER countered with the opposite headline, but the same conclusion: "The first cut is the deepest… and the toughest." Porter expects a cut. — Long-term consequences: Tiff Macklem's rate-cut timetable could have enormous electoral consequences. Seventy-six percent of mortgages are up for renewal by the end of 2026, according to a recent report from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Even if rates start to fall as an election nears, millions of Canadians will likely renew at higher rates than they're used to. But Liberals' influence on the bank is zilch. It's all on Macklem and co. No pressure, Mr. Governor. COUNTRY COUNT — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU's annual globetrotting tally is about to pick up. So far, Trudeau has only left the country twice this year. He made a surprise trip to Ukraine in February and a short jaunt to Philadelphia last month. We’ve mapped out all the travel possibilities. — Next up, France: Trudeau will take a two-day break from silly season to mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy. The French government uninvited Russians officials, sparing Western allies from intense awkwardness. The brief Eurotrip spans Wednesday and Thursday. — On to Italy: A higher-stakes trip is scheduled for the back half of next week, when Trudeau will arrive in the southern Italian city of Fasano — at the top of the heel of the boot — for the annual G7 leaders’ summit. That gathering runs June 13-15. Ukraine-watchers are keeping a close eye on the confab for movement on the Western push to fuel the war-torn country's effort with seized Russian central bank assets. Late last month, there was still no workable deal. — Switzerland, too: Trudeau will make the short flight to the Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Lucerne — the latest jaw session on the future of the punishing war. — Potential passport stamps: The PM could yet rack up thousands more air miles before the year is out. France hosts the Olympics this summer and the Francophonie summit in October. Also that month: Laos has the ASEAN summit and Samoa welcomes Commonwealth heads of government. In November, Peru takes on the APEC summit and Brazil hosts G20 leaders. Azerbaijan is home of global climate talks that month, just in case the PM is up for an ambitious transoceanic itinerary. IN THE HOUSE — The Liberals hope to advance four bills this week: C-20, C-40, C-61 and C-64. The first two didn't have debate slots in the chamber when Government House Leader STEVEN MACKINNON previewed the agenda last Thursday. — Today's top priorities: The government’s pharmacare legislation — that's C-64 — will move to a vote at third reading. That is a key plank sustaining the NDP’s governing deal with the Liberals, and it's likely Senate-bound by the end of the day. → Unfinished business: MPs will also vote on PIERRE POILIEVRE's non-binding motion that calls on the Liberals (again) to scrap the federal carbon levy and — this part's new — take the federal sales tax off gas and diesel until Labour Day. — Noise alert: Tuesday and Thursday are opposition days.
| | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has two afternoon events on his agenda. At 3:30 p.m. he will host a meeting with the president and secretary general of the International Civil Aviation Organization Council. Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ will attend. At 4:15 p.m., the PM will meet with OLEKSANDRA MATVIICHUK, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and chair of the Center for Civil Liberties. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa. She'll attend QP. — At 11 a.m., NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will appear at the House industry committee to discuss his private member's bill, C-352, which would amend competition laws. At 1:30 p.m., Singh will speak to the pharmacare bill at third reading. He'll then speak to reporters before attending QP. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY campaigns in the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection with candidate CHRISTIAN CULLIS. They'll open Cullis' campaign office at 2 p.m.
| | DULY NOTED | | 9 a.m. Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC kicks off the 2024 National Security Conference, an all-day event at the Rideau Club that includes New Brunswick Premier BLAINE HIGGS. → Former U.S. Ambassador to Canada BRUCE HEYMAN will be a panelist on a roundtable titled, “Global security challenges and Canada's response to a Trump victory.” 1 p.m. The Atlantic Council holds a virtual discussion with U.S. Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI on "The Future for U.S.-European Union Trade." 6:15 p.m. Immigration Minister MARC MILLER headlines a party fundraiser at Speranza Banquet Hall in Brampton.
| | TRIVIA CUP — It all comes down to this. Nineteen teams from five categories will compete this evening in the First Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup championship round. We picked up the cup last week. It's glorious. We're packing the Métropolitain with 112 players, some of whom will arrive fresh from the prime minister's media garden party at Rideau Cottage. Teams have taken this seriously. KEVIN BOSCH showed up to the Met for every single qualifying round to scout his future competition. THE PLAYERS — The top-four finishers in each of five qualifying rounds earned a spot in the grand finale. Here they are, with qualifying scores in parentheses. — Lobbyists: The Eh Team (26), Four More Beers (25), Clerks of the Trivy Council (25), StrategyCorp (24) — Ministers' offices: The World (24), The Finfluencers (21), Hiring to Retiring (21), “I was wondering if you might have a moment to discuss …" (21) — Journalists: CPAC Brainiacs (26), Parliament Hillbillies (24), Trivia Night in Canada (22) — Public servants: Super Secret Cyber Spy Agency (26), Parliamentary Budget Oracles (26), King's Trivy Council (25), The Public Eh-dministrators (24) — MPs/senators: S.O. 14 (26), PIP Squeaks (25), Triviacare for All (24), Spineless Wackos (22) HOW TO CROWN A WINNER — Only two teams will advance to the winner-take-all lightning round at the end of this evening. The first to five correct responses takes the cup.
| | | 2024 WATCH | | | 
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at Trump Tower in New York on May 31. | Alex Kent for POLITICO | TRUMP TREMORS — Would a reelected DONALD TRUMP be allowed to attend next year's G7 summit in Canada? That's a live question in the wake of the former president's conviction in a hush money trial. The answer from CBC News: If Trump made the trip, he would need special permission from Ottawa. More from POLITICO's post-conviction headlines: — A certain appeal: Trump will likely appeal the ruling. And he has a decent shot at overturning the result, our colleagues have learned. “There is an appeal that could have legs,” said ARLO DEVLIN-BROWN, a former federal prosecutor who was chief of the public corruption unit in the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s office. — The GOP's man: U.S. House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON told reporters before a weekend Illinois fundraiser that Trump “is not just our nominee, not just an individual running for president. I think now he’s seen as a symbol, a symbol of one who is willing to fight back against that corruption, the deep state and all the rest.” — Disunity watch: Trump's sentence could range from jail time to community service, but the former president said over the weekend that even house arrest would set off Americans. "I’m not sure the public would stand for it,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday morning. “I think it’d be tough for the public to take. At a certain point, there’s a breaking point.” — What it all means: POLITICO Magazine tracked down 22 experts who expounded on what the Trump verdict means for 2024 and beyond.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — Top of the NYT this hour: CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM makes history as first woman elected to lead Mexico. — A Globe and Mail reporting team crunched the numbers on federal land that could be turned into affordable housing. They claim all the Ottawa-owned "lazy land" could potentially house 750,000 people. — From CBC News this morning: Investors reshaped Canadian home real estate. Something similar is happening in agriculture — The Toronto Star's ALEX BALLINGALL writes up the latest will-he-or-won't-he tale that ponders MARK CARNEY's plans, or lack thereof, to enter elected politics. — Standard & Poor's downgraded France's credit rating from AA to AA-. The agency blamed higher-than-expected deficits and political fragmentation. Our POLITICO colleagues report.
| | PROZONE | | For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Next week now: Prelude to peak silly In other news for Pro readers: — Why the U.S. needs $10,000 Chinese electric vehicles — WHO negotiators agree to extend pandemic talks for up to another year — Congress is already bracing for a 2025 fiscal pileup — Russia hits Ukraine energy infrastructure in large-scale missile, drone attack — Retired Navy admiral arrested on bribery charges
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to Conservative Party Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, retired Sen. HOWARD WETSTON, and CUPE senior comms officer HUGH POULIOT. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: Liberal MP TIM LOUIS, tickling the ivories at the airport. Movers and shakers: ADAM BASSETT is seeking the Conservative nomination in Egmont, P.E.I.’s LOGAN MCLELLAN is also hoping for the nod … RACHEL RAPPAPORT joins Lime as senior manager of government relations. The Canadian Club of Ottawa has a 2024-25 board of directors: President JENNIFER CROSS; VPs MARY ANNE CARTER, MUHAMMAD ALI and GEORGANNE BURKE; treasurer CHRIS MEYERS; and corporate secretary DANIELLE MCGEE.
| | ON THE HILL | | → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. 9:30 a.m. The Canadian Association of Former Parliamentarians will host its annual memorial service. 10 a.m. Supreme Court Chief Justice RICHARD WAGNER hosts his annual press conference. 11 a.m. The House industry committee hosts NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH, who will testify about his private member's bill, C-352, which would amend competition laws. MPs will also hear from MATTHEW BOSWELL, the competition commissioner. 11 a.m. The House justice committee will start its study on Islamophobia and fears raised by Canada’s Muslim communities. 11 a.m. Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU and Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will be the star witnesses at the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee’s study on the auditor general’s audit on First Nations housing. 11 a.m. The House immigration committee will study pension transferability, access to the Mandatory Provident Fund and permanent residence and visa delays for Hong Kongers. 11 a.m. The House national defense committee will continue its space defense study. 11 a.m. The House government operations and estimates committee will study Main Estimates. 12 p.m. Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC headlines the second panel of the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee when the committee shifts focus to the auditor general’s report on First Nations and Inuit policing. 3:30 p.m. The House foreign affairs committee will study the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the situation in Iran. 3:30 p.m. The House human resources committee will be focused on federal housing investments. 3:45 p.m. The House official languages committee resumes debate on a motion regarding the status of Liberal MP FRANCIS DROUIN on the committee. 4 p.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX pops up at the Senate national defense committee as part of senators’ study on procurement and defense industry. 4 p.m. U.N. Ambassador BOB RAE will be a witness via video link at the Senate human rights committee’s study on forced global displacement. MATTHIEU KIMMELL, Global Affairs Canada’s director of humanitarian policy, joins Rae as a witness. 5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee will meet to continue its look at minority-language health services. 6:30 p.m. The Canada-China committee will meet to continue its study on bilateral relations. Canada-ASEAN Business Council President WAYNE CHRISTOPHER FARMER joins as a witness via videolink. We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .
| | TRIVIA | | Friday's answer: Prince Edward Island resident CHARLES WEBBER said this: "“PEI [Prince Edward Island] will survive it, no problem whatsoever. But it will change, that’s inevitable. Everything changes.” He was referring to the Confederation Bridge — the "fixed link" connecting the island province to New Brunswick, which opened May 31, 1997. Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, JOHN ECKER, PATRICK DION, MORGAN LARHANT, GUY SKIPWORTH, BILL GARVIN, KEVIN BOSCH, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, DAVE EPP, DAN MCCARTHY, JOANNA PLATER, LAURA JARVIS, MATT DELISLE, CAMERON RYAN, RODDY MCFAIL, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JIM CAMPBELL, BOB GORDON, EVAN WILSON, GERRY THORNE and FRANCIE FORD. Today’s question: On this day in history, the Battle of Loon Lake marked the end of what conflict? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com
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