The ‘big mistake’ Republican senators want to avoid after Trump’s conviction

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Jun 03, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Inside Congress

By Burgess Everett and Anthony Adragna

Presented by 

PhRMA

With assists from POLITICO's Congress team

Former President Donald Trump walks out of court following the verdict in his hush money trial.

Former President Donald Trump walks out of court following the verdict in his hush money trial in New York, on May 30, 2024. | Pool photo by Mark Peterson

SENATE GOP WARNS AGAINST A TRUMP VERDICT-FOCUSED 2024

On both sides of the Capitol, most Republicans say former President Donald Trump’s criminal conviction in New York is politically motivated rather than a substantive case. And the GOP racked in fundraising after Trump was found guilty.

Yet just as Democrats weigh how much to talk about Trump on the trail this fall, Republicans are deep in their own open debate about just how much the verdict will matter on Election Day. Many GOP senators want to talk about the economy and President Joe Biden’s record — not litigate the first felony conviction of a former president.

The GOP has spent months upon months laying the groundwork to make this fall’s election a referendum on Biden, talking relentlessly about stubborn inflation and spiking migration. Quite a few Republicans see those issues as more advantageous ground than defending the party’s nominee after a conviction on 34 counts of falsifying records related to hush money payments to a porn star.

In Sen. Jerry Moran’s (R-Kan.) view: The best campaign in 2024 is to point out the economic circumstances that we’re in. And the policies of the Biden administration.”

And Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) put it this way: “The big mistake that we make is to shift our attention away from a failing economy of failing global stature all the way back to retrograde in Afghanistan,” adding that “Trump wins if we focus on those issues.”

They’re not necessarily going to win the day in the party, though. Some Republicans want Trump’s conviction to be a central element of the party’s message over the next five months, seeing the potential for more fundraising bumps and base-motivating political gold.

“If anything, it’s going to have a positive impact,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said. “You don’t have to look further than the fundraising. Set that aside: This is firing people up.”

Several GOP senators went up to New York to show solidarity with the former president during the trial, and many issued rancorous statements last week backing up Trump. Yet in the end, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) predicted the trial verdict will be a “blip” on the national conscience come November, with the election being fought over the border and the economy, among other issues.

Marshall suggested Trump’s vice presidential pick would have a greater impact on the election than the felony convictions.

“That's a bigger deal than at this point than what this verdict is. There’s this 15 to 20 percent of people in primaries who are still voting for Nikki Haley. How do we reach out to that group?” Marshall said. “That’s a bigger issue than this verdict.”

Of course, even if GOP senators who want to focus elsewhere win the messaging battle here, they can’t escape the trial entirely – congressional Republicans and Trump still have to share a ticket in November. It’s clear where Trump’s head is at, as he decries his treatment by the court and his party fundraises off the issue.

If Trump keeps that up, it’s going to be hard for Republicans to talk only about the economy, immigration and Biden’s record.

“Absolutely, we should talk about it,” said Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) of Trump’s guilty verdict.

Red-state campaign watch: In two key Senate races, Republican candidates are moving to make the guilty verdict a central issue on the trail. Tim Sheehy in Montana and Bernie Moreno in Ohio both launched ads Monday hitting Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, asserting they support the “witch hunt” against Trump.

The Moreno spend is a five-figure digital ad, part of a larger seven-figure buy.

Tester responded to the Montana ad by saying that Sheehy has a “problem with the truth” and said that he “paid no attention” to the trial while it was happening.

“Like everybody else, President Trump has the ability to appeal it and in the end the final arbitrator will be the voters in November. It doesn’t matter what I believe,” Tester said.

– Burgess Everett and Anthony Adragna 

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, June 3, where our Red Line woes are only beginning.

GARLAND IN THE HOT SEAT

Attorney General Merrick Garland will find himself facing Republican scrutiny on Tuesday — even as the GOP keeps trying, without success yet, to lock down the near-unanimous support needed to hold him in contempt of Congress.

Garland’s Judiciary Committee appearance will put him face-to-face with some of his biggest conservative critics in the House GOP. Many of those same members are itching to use this year’s government funding debate to rein in the prosecutors currently involved in criminal cases against former President Donald Trump.

We caught up with Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) who gave us a preview of what Republicans on the panel will ask about (expect fireworks):

  • Expect Republicans to bring up former special counsel Robert Hur’s interview with President Joe Biden after Garland defied two DOJ subpoenas to turn over the audio. The DOJ has turned over the transcripts but warned that sharing the audio would have a chilling effect on future investigations. 
  • They are also likely to press Garland on any potential interactions between the DOJ and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office. After Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to a porn actress, Jordan invited Bragg to testify before his committee on the case. (Reminder: The date for his response is Friday at 5 p.m.)
  • Garland is also likely to get questions on two long-running topics of interest: claims of whistleblower retaliation and GOP allegations, which Garland has long denied, that the FBI and DOJ were targeting parents at school board meetings. (The AG has repeatedly noted that the DOJ's concern was specifically about when there was violence or threats of violence.)

On the funding front: We got a copy of a letter Jordan sent today to Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) outlining recommendations for DOJ and immigration-related funding restrictions or changes.

One of Jordan’s suggestions is cutting off any federal funding for Bragg and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis – who’s trying Trump in her home state of Georgia right now on charges related to his efforts to overturn his loss in 2020. Jordan also pitched zeroing out funding for special counsel Jack Smith, who is leading the federal investigations into Trump.

– Jordain Carney

 

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INDEPENDENT BOB

Bob Menendez will file to run for another term as an independent in New Jersey (while managing his own campaign!), and it’s fair to say his colleagues aren’t exactly thrilled.

“He has a right to run if he wants to. I’m going to support the Democratic nominee,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said in an interview. He also told reporters later he’s “certainly” worried about Menendez potentially playing spoiler in this fall’s race.

How would that work? Menendez seems to have a near-zero chance of winning as he simultaneously deals with his own criminal trial, but there’s a slim yet real chance he could affect a race between favored Democratic nominee Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) and the Republican who wins the nomination Tuesday night.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) won his 2020 race by about 16 points and Menendez won in 2018 by about 13, so Menendez would need to draw support somewhere in that percentage range to upend the race’s dynamics.

That’s probably not Menendez’s goal as he mulls whether to follow through on a campaign, but public polls underscore the reality that he seems to have little chance of holding onto his seat. Booker declined to assess Menendez’s prospects: “I’m not putting my thought into what might happen. The trial is a really serious situation.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) hazarded an eye roll when asked about the prospects that Menendez could even play spoiler. She said the idea itself was outlandish at this point.

“The senator will make his own decisions,” she said. “No. I just don’t see a path, I don’t think so.”

– Burgess Everett, with an assist from Anthony Adragna

 

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QUICK LINKS 

I took an oath to do no harm’: The two doctors wrestling over Fauci’s legacy, from The Washington Post’s Dan Diamond

DOJ fears AI tampering with Biden-Hur audio, from Jordain

Thanedar challenger Hollier suspends U.S. House campaign, from Melissa Nann Burke at the Detroit News

The ‘Appeal to Heaven’ Flag Is All Over Capitol Hill, from Haley Byrd Wilt at NOTUS

 

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S ENERGY SUMMIT: The future of energy faces a crossroads in 2024 as policymakers and industry leaders shape new rules, investments and technologies. Join POLITICO’s Energy Summit on June 5 as we convene top voices to examine the shifting global policy environment in a year of major elections in the U.S. and around the world. POLITICO will examine how governments are writing and rewriting new rules for the energy future and America’s own role as a major exporter. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

TRANSITIONS 

Victoria Bonney is starting as senior adviser and comms director for Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.). She previously was comms director for Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine).

Julie Braymer is now comms director for Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas). She previously was a digital specialist for Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).

Liz Murray is now senior adviser for strategic comms and executive operations at CISA. She most recently was director of scheduling and advance for the Small Business Administration and is an SKDK and Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) alum.

Annaliese Yukawa is now senior legislative assistant for Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.). She previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.).

Jenny Neuscheler is joining Cornerstone Government Affairs’ federal government relations team. She previously was clerk on the House Appropriations Military Construction-VA Subcommittee.

 

A message from PhRMA:

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TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are in.

TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL

10:45 a.m. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party holds bipartisan presser on 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, HVC 201

12 p.m. Co-chairs of Congressional Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group on U.S. nuclear weapons strategy, House Triangle

2:30 p.m. Democratic Whip Katherine Clark and colleagues hold a press conference on the Right to Contraception Act, House Triangle\

TRIVIA

FRIDAY’S ANSWER: J.R. Walker III was the first to correctly guess that Eleanor Roosevelt was the first FLOTUS to hold regular press conferences and write daily newspaper columns.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from J.R.: During the 1924 Democratic National Convention, which son-in-law of a former President led the delegate vote for 77 ballots but did not receive his party’s nomination on the 103rd ballot?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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