The Squad’s next big fight

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Jun 26, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

SCOTUS SPRINT BEGINS — The Supreme Court convenes at 10 a.m. today to begin a three-day extravaganza that could clear its docket of the 14 argued cases it has yet to resolve.

Among the blockbusters on tap, Josh Gerstein and Samantha Latson write, are DONALD TRUMP’s bid to invoke presidential immunity from criminal prosecution, Idaho’s effort to curtail access to emergency abortions, cases on the government’s ability to regulate social media and a sweeping attempt to shrink the power of federal agencies.

“The high court’s decisions so far this year — most notably a major gun case decided last week — show signs of some GOP-appointed justices pulling back from doctrinaire conservative positions,” they write. “But the last decisions each term often prove to be the most contentious and ideologically polarized.”

George Latimer takes a photo with a supporter at his election night party.

Last night, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) lost his primary to Westchester County Executive George Latimer. | Jeenah Moon/AP

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: ST. LOUIS SHOWDOWN — Last night, Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) became the first member of the progressive “Squad” to be knocked out of Congress, losing his primary to Westchester County Executive GEORGE LATIMER by 16 points.

We’ll get to the fallout from that result in just a moment, but first a reminder that Bowman isn’t the only Squadster to face a dire threat from a fellow Democrat this year. A new poll obtained by Playbook shows the race between Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) and St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney WESLEY BELL is in a statistical dead heat ahead of the Aug. 6 primary.

The poll of 400 voters was conducted last week on behalf of Democratic Majority for Israel by pollster MARK MELLMAN. Both have been critical of Squad members for their views of Israel, so the usual caveats about internal polling apply. But we’ll note that Mellman’s April poll of the Bowman-Latimer race for DMFI nailed Latimer’s victory margin.

We’ll be watching to see whether Latimer’s victory and a tightening race in St. Louis compels DMFI and United Democracy Project, the AIPAC-affiliated group that spent nearly $15 million to defeat Bowman, to spend big here, too.

The worrying news for Bush isn’t just that the race is tight; it’s that Bell has gained considerably since a January poll found him 16 points behind, thanks in part to $2 million in early UDP spending, and he already enjoys stronger job approval ratings than Bush does.

DOWN GOES BOWMAN — As for the lessons to be learned from Bowman’s loss? It wasn’t all about Israel.

Yes, absolutely, Bowman’s anti-Israel stance spurred the cash surge that turned this into the most expensive House race in history

And yes, absolutely, Latimer took direct aim at the progressive wing of his party in his victory speech last night: “We have to look at the arguments of the far right and the far left and say, ‘You cannot destroy this country with your rhetoric and your arguments.’”

Still, other outspoken progressives have won their primaries handily — including Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) just last night. While they did not face electorates quite so primed to eject an Israel skeptic, they also heeded other lessons:

— Mind your voting record and personal behavior: As our colleagues Nick Reisman, Rich Mendez and Emily Ngo write, the ads against Bowman barely mentioned Israel. Instead, the focus was largely on Bowman’s votes against Biden’s infrastructure law and against raising the debt ceiling.

And then there’s the fire alarm. As NYT’s Nicholas Fandos writes, the timing of the episode that resulted in a misdemeanor plea and House censure “could hardly have been worse. Opposition researchers turned up old blog posts dabbling in 9/11 conspiracy theories and publicized video of Mr. Bowman calling reports that Hamas sexually abused Israeli women during its attack ‘propaganda.’ (He later apologized.)”

— Don’t alienate your friends back home: A more skilled politician might have survived those travails with a local support network in place. Bowman didn’t have that; local political leaders instead flocked to Latimer, who as county executive had built close ties with mayors and town councilors, as AP’s Anthony Izaguirre writes, while Bowman had his eye on the national stage.

That relative lack of local backup extended to a notable Brooklynite — House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, who helped Bowman with a $5,000 leadership PAC donation and a late robocall, but did not exactly move heaven and earth to rescue him, as Akela Lacy of The Intercept reports.

— Don’t alienate your colleagues in Washington: Expect to hear plenty in the next few days about what Bowman’s loss means for the progressive movement writ large. But we heard yesterday from a House Democrat who represents a competitive district who wanted to vent about how Bowman’s loss was completely avoidable.

It was less about ideology, this lawmaker said, and more about how he went about his job: “Nobody who cares about them tried to help, tried to stop them, tried to say, ‘Hey, there's a better way. You don't need to do this. You can advocate for your position without alienating the vast majority of voters.’”

The frustration inside the caucus, the member continued, isn’t about any other member’s particular views on Israel or Medicare for All or any other issue. It’s about a lack of focus on winning a majority and focusing on the job of passing legislation.

“If you're going to start huge fights as opposed to governing,” the person said, “there are consequences.”

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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(MORE) ABOUT LAST NIGHT …

  • In NY-01: JOHN AVLON, the former CNN personality, easily triumphed over chemist and professor NANCY GOROFF in Long Island yesterday, clinching the Democratic nomination to face off this fall against GOP Rep. NICK LaLOTA in a battleground district, Emily Ngo and Joe Anuta write
  • In NY-22: JOHN MANNION prevailed in the Democratic primary for the Syracuse-area congressional seat, setting up a battle with GOP Rep. BRANDON WILLIAMS in what is expected to be one of the country’s most competitive races this November, Bill Mahoney writes.
  • In CO-04: Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) secured victory in a crowded GOP primary for a new district on the other side of the state from her current constituents, Madison Fernandez writes. Meanwhile, in the special election for this seat to replace GOP Rep. KEN BUCK, Republican GREG LOPEZ won, though he is not running for the seat in the fall, The Denver Post’s John Aguilar writes.
  • For Utah Senate:MITT ROMNEY will be replaced by a guy who sure sounds a lot like Mitt Romney,” Ally Mutnick writes. “Republican Rep. John Curtis, who has occasionally bucked former President Donald Trump, won a crowded GOP primary on Tuesday for Romney’s Utah Senate seat. He beat TRENT STAGGS, a MAGA candidate with Trump’s blessing, to secure a win for the mainstream GOP in a devout Mormon state that has long proved skeptical of Trumpian politics.”
  • The big takeaway: “Trump’s endorsement is starting to show its limits,” by Ally Mutnick and Madison Fernandez: “Tuesday’s losses are notable because they are so rare. Trump’s backing is priceless political currency, so it’s jarring when its recipients fall short, indicating there is a limit to his sway and political operation.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: WHAT THEY WANT BIDEN TO SAY — In just over 36 hours, President JOE BIDEN and Trump will face off in Atlanta for the first time in four years. For weeks, the two men have been getting advice from all corners of the political world on just how they should prepare for battle.

One group is putting their advice for Biden in writing. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has five recommendations in a memo they’ve sent to Team Biden that largely involve having the incumbent discuss his economic positions and proposals as much as possible.

Among their ideas: Have Biden “create high drama clashes on popular economic issues.” Highlight Trump’s policy positions by confronting him with his past words and “ask[ing] if he disagrees with himself.” Invoke the need to defend Social Security when discussing the need to tax the wealthy. And, in general, discuss the economy in terms of “items that impact their family budgets, not macroeconomic numbers like GDP.”

Some of PCCC’s messaging advice has been taken seriously inside the West Wing in the past, and what they are suggesting is not out of keeping with how Biden likes to approach his communications — and how Trump likes to operate during debates.

It’s notable as an example of how those on the left are contending with a tricky issue for Biden: how to gain advantage on economic issues when public opinions on the economy remain so dismal. Biden has been reminded for months that poo-pooing voters’ feelings in favor of explaining how unemployment is low, growth is strong and inflation is abating just won’t cut it.

Speaking of tricky issues: Immigration Hub has its own memo on how Biden can win arguments on their controversial issue set. It boils down to “embrace it, don’t run away from it.”

“President Biden should confidently stand on his accomplishments, maintaining the most active immigration presidency in recent history,” writes the group, which closely monitored the aborted congressional border deal that Biden is sure to tout tomorrow.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: JOHNSON AT HUDSON — House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON next will make his first foreign-policy-focused appearance since passing April’s $95 billion national security supplemental spending package at a July 8 Hudson Institute event focusing on “Threats to the U.S.-Led World Order.” In discussion with Hudson Senior Fellow REBECCAH HEINRICHS, Johnson will address the growing threats from China, Russia and Iran, and how the U.S. can counter them with more credible deterrence, stronger alliances and improved hard power. More from Hudson

LIVE EVENT TONIGHT: SECURING SUPPLY CHAINS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE — Can the U.S. keep China out of its most sensitive supply chains? What about insider threats? Join POLITICO today for conversations (and cocktails to follow) on how the U.S. is staying ahead of threats to critical infrastructure. Hear from the Army’s top weapons buyer, Assistant Secretary DOUG BUSH, DNI supply chain and cyber watchdog JEANETTE McMILLIAN, CISA Executive Director BRANDON WALES, Reps. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.) and JAKE ELLZEY (R-Texas), Aerospace Industries Association President and CEO ERIC FANNING and many other defense and intelligence community leaders. Doors open at 5 p.m. RSVP and info here

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate is out.

The House will meet at 9 a.m. Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO will testify before a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee at 10 a.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. House Republicans are doing their darndest to keep STEVE BANNON out of prison: As the former Trump strategist and current MAGA chieftain petitions the Supreme Court to intervene against his imminent incarceration, a panel of top House leaders convened yesterday as the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group and voted along party lines to have the chamber officially repudiate the Jan. 6 select committee’s subpoena of Bannon, our POLITICO colleagues report. It’s unclear what effect, if any, the vote will have on the Supreme Court’s handling of the case; Bannon tells Time magazine he’s ready to start his four-month sentence on July 1.
  2. An appropriations vote-a-rama is on tap for the coming days in the House after the Rules Committee yesterday sent the Defense bill to the floor with 193 amendments made in order, State-Foreign Operations with 75 amendments, and Homeland Security with 61 amendments. One amendment that, unsurprisingly, did not make the cut: Rep. MATT ROSENDALE’s (R-Mont.) Defense measure banning taxpayer spending on in vitro fertilization for Pentagon personnel.
  3. Tonight is the annual Congressional Women’s Softball Game, and while it has a lower profile than the Congressional Baseball Game, it, too, raises lots of money for a worthy cause — the Young Survival Coalition, which helps young adults diagnosed with breast cancer. This one isn’t Republicans vs. Democrats; it’s a matchup with a lot more appeal — Team Congress vs. the Bad News Babes, the team of star reporters who are looking to build on their 10-4 all-time series lead. Buy a $10 ticket

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will deliver remarks at a campaign event.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

Jack Smith and Aileen Cannon are shown in a side-by-side.

In a hearing on the status of the classified documents case against Donald Trump, Judge Aileen Cannon appeared highly skeptical of the former president’s bid to throw out evidence. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP; Southern District of Florida

CANNON FODDER — Judge AILEEN CANNON in a hearing on the status of the classified documents case against Trump appeared highly skeptical of the former president’s bid to throw out evidence seized from his Mar-a-Lago estate, Kimberly Leonard reports from Fort Pierce, Florida.

“Trump’s lawyers argued at a court hearing that the 2022 search warrant in the classified documents investigation was overly broad and violated Trump’s rights. … Cannon indicated that she was unpersuaded by the defense’s arguments, saying that the main issue at hand was whether the warrant had been ‘particular enough.’ ‘I think it is,’ she said.

“Her skepticism toward Trump’s defense arguments was unusual for the judge, a Trump appointee who has issued many favorable rulings toward Trump and has often clashed with special counsel JACK SMITH’S team — including just a day earlier, when she scolded one of Smith’s prosecutors for using an indecorous tone.” Cannon did not indicate when she would issue a final ruling on the issue.

More top reads:

MEDIAWATCH

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 5: The Washington Post Building at One Franklin Square Building on June 5, 2024 in Washington, DC.

The Daily Beast is up with the latest explosive new story on WaPo CEO Will Lewis. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

WHAT’S GOING ON AT WAPO — The Daily Beast is up with the latest explosive new story on WaPo CEO WILL LEWIS, with Harry Lambert reporting on the “opinion of police officers who questioned Lewis while he was working for RUPERT MURDOCH in the early 2010s.

“One of those officers, who asked for anonymity due to active civil lawsuits, thinks that Lewis and another executive told police ‘a total fabrication’ in 2011 as part of a corporate cover-up to spare Murdoch and his executives. ‘It was a poppycock story about why they had deleted millions of emails. We challenged it and asked for evidence for weeks afterwards. It never came. They’d made it up.’”

The backstory: “Police wanted to know why 30 million emails had been deleted since Lewis’ arrival at News International, Murdoch’s U.K. news company. … The emails included those of Murdoch’s son JAMES and REBEKAH BROOKS, the company’s two lead executives.”

Meanwhile, Lewis has “suspended his newsletter for former clients and contacts after sponsor AlixPartners asked to 'pause' its involvement amid a newsroom revolt at the US broadsheet,” FT’s Daniel Thomas reports.

HEADS UP — Russia is set to begin its “trial” against imprisoned WSJ reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH today. WSJ editor-in-chief EMMA TUCKER penned a letter on the occasion: “To even call it a trial, however, is unfair to Evan and a continuation of this travesty of justice that already has gone on for far too long,” she wrote. After an initial hearing this morning, the AP reports, he is not due back in court again until Aug. 13.

GUARDING THE GRAY LADY — “New York Times to Move Podcasts Behind Paywall,” by WSJ’s Anne Steele and Alexandra Bruell

2024 WATCH

UP FOR DEBATE — “Inside Trump’s Don’t-Call-It ‘Debate Prep,’” by The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo

KNOWING MIRIAM ADELSON — The conservative billionaire megadonor and the recent assurance of financial backing — to the tune of more than $90 million — that she gave to Trump goes under the microscope of NYT’s Teddy Schleifer. “She is poised to become one of the biggest donors in the presidential election — and, if Mr. Trump wins, one of the most powerful private citizens with a say in American foreign policy.”

VEEPSTAKES — Trump is thinking about rolling out his pick for vice president “as early as this week, possibly ahead of Thursday's debate,” NBC’s Henry Gomez, Dasha Burns, Matt Dixon, Julie Tsirkin and Jonathan Allen report. (FWIW: The Trump campaign’s CHRIS LaCIVITA repeatedly mocked the report yesterday.)

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

Jennifer Homendy, chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, speaks during a board meeting concerning the February 3, 2023, train derailment of a Norfolk Southern freight train carrying hazardous materials, Tuesday, June 25, 2024, in East Palestine, Ohio. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy accused Norfolk Southern rail company of interfering with the East Palestine trail derailment investigation. | AP

REPORT CARD — The National Transportation Safety Board yesterday delivered a withering assessment of Norfolk Southern’s handling of the East Palestine, Ohio, derailment, finding that the railroad “repeatedly tried to interfere with the agency’s investigation … and shape its conclusions about the flawed decision to blow open five tank cars and burn the vinyl chloride inside,” AP’s Josh Funk, Tom Krisher and Patrick Orsagos report.

While many of the findings about the cause of the derailment weren’t surprising — the agency had already released its preliminary conclusions blaming an overheated wheel bearing — NTSB Chair JENNIFER HOMENDY’s assessment of Norfolk Southern’s “unconscionable” behavior after the incident was striking, Chris Marquette and Mike Lee report.

“She accused the railroad of dragging its feet on releasing information, abusing the board’s investigations process, ‘manufacturing its own evidence’ and trying to smear the board’s reputation, which she called the gold standard for accident investigations around the world,” they write, noting that Norfolk Southern “said it has acted ethically and cooperated throughout the investigation.”

IMMIGRATION FILES — DHS has “identified over 400 immigrants who have come to the U.S. from Central Asia and elsewhere as ‘subjects of concern’ because they were brought by an ISIS-affiliated human smuggling network,” NBC’s Julia Ainsley and Tom Winter report. “While over 150 of them have been arrested, the whereabouts of over 50 remain unknown, the officials said, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement is looking to arrest them on immigration charges when they are located.”

Related reads: “The Southern Border, Terrorism Fears and the Arrests of 8 Tajik Men,” by NYT’s Adam Goldman, Eric Schmitt and Hamed Aleaziz … “Killing of Texas Girl Becomes a New Immigration Flashpoint,” by NYT’s J. David Goodman in Houston

AMERICA AND THE WORLD 

PIER REVIEW — The U.S.-built pier intended to provide aid to Gaza is up and running, but the endeavor is “still not reaching any of the desperate Gazans inside the enclave,” Lara Seligman and Erin Banco report. “Tons of food and medical supplies are now piling up on the beach awaiting distribution, as the humanitarian organizations tasked with moving the aid refuse to resume operations due to security concerns.”

IT’S OVER — “WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange returns to Australia after US legal battle ends,” by AP’s Rick Rycroft and Rod McGuirk in Canberra

THE STEPBACK — “Assange’s Plea Deal Sets a Chilling Precedent, but It Could Have Been Worse,” by NYT’s Charlie Savage: “The agreement means that for the first time in American history, gathering and publishing information the government considers secret has been successfully treated as a crime.”

PRIORITIES, PRIORITIES — “U.S. Talks Tough on Russia and Iran — So Long as It Doesn’t Raise Gas Prices,” by WSJ’s Anna Hirtenstein, Joe Wallace, Ian Talley and Costas Paris

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Auma Obama, the half-sister of Barack Obama, was subjected to tear gas with other protesters in Kenya.

Elissa Slotkin got the NYT crossword treatment.

Bob Good says he wants a recount.

Ken Griffin got an apology from the IRS and dropped his lawsuit against it.

Michael Phelps had some tough words on the Hill for the World Anti-Doping Agency.

SPOTTED: Country music singer Randy Travis and his wife, Mary, dining at Ocean Prime yesterday evening ahead of his testimony this afternoon on the American Music Fairness Act in the House Judiciary Committee’s IP Subcommittee.

SPOTTED at separate tables at Cafe Milano last night: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Matt Brooks; David Urban; Brian Baker; and Lyndon Boozer and Gerry Harrington.

OUT AND ABOUT — YouTube’s Lyor Cohen hosted a gathering Monday night to celebrate the launch of the U.S. Department of State-YouTube Global Music Partnership, as part of the Global Music Diplomacy Initiative. He thanked the artists who will be U.S. global music ambassadors, including Armani White, Chuck D, Grace Bowers, Justin Tranter, Lainey Wilson, Breland and Denyce Graves, and Bowers performed with her band. SPOTTED: Lee Satterfield, Bruce Campbell, Alexandra Veitch, Josh Blumenfeld, Symone Sanders-Townsend, Amy Ricchetti, Shannon Ricchetti, Peter Neal, Maisy Biden, Diane Blagman, Talley Sergent, Tony P, Debbie Marshall, Monica Holt, Nicole Elkon and Neal Wolin.

The League of Minority Voters held a bipartisan happy hour at Forbes Tate Partners’ bar yesterday evening. SPOTTED: Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), Andres Ramirez, Arthur Sidney, Estuardo Rodriguez, Larry Gonzalez, Anthony Mitchell, Tasha Moses, Vineeta Gupta, Promise King, Erick Harris and Bridgette Jackson.

MEDIA MOVES — Alex Ward and Lara Seligman are joining the Wall Street Journal, Semafor’s Max Tani reports. Ward is a national security reporter for POLITICO and Seligman is a Pentagon reporter for POLITICO.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Next 50 is rolling out its latest endorsements and final ones for this cycle. Federal candidates: Oregon state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who is running in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District and Shomari Figures, who is running Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. Statewide candidates: Pennsylvania state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who is running for Pennsylvania auditor general. State legislature candidates: Nevada state Sen. Dallas Harris, Nevada state Rep. Sandra Jauregui, Wisconsin state Rep. Greta Neubauer, Alaska state Rep. Maxine Dibert, Alaska’s Robyn Burke, Texas’ Kristian Carranza and North Carolina’s Dante Pittman.

Liftoff Campaigns is elevating Bennett Tyson to SVP of advertising and Chas Goldman to VP of comms, and adding Mary Beth Kennedy as digital manager, Anna Mason and Katie Knecht as digital strategists, and Antonio Casuso as senior advertising associate.

TRANSITIONS — Mary Werden is joining ROKK Solutions as VP. She most recently was senior adviser and comms director for House Energy and Commerce ranking member Frank Pallone (D-N.J.). … Michael Falcone is now director for special projects at Uber. He most recently was senior editor at Apple News and is a WaPo and ABC alum. … Corey Roush is now a partner in Sidley’s antitrust and competition practice. He previously was at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld. …

… Steven Wall is now a principal at Blank Rome Government Relations. He previously was general counsel to the Senate Commerce Committee. … Grant Dixton is joining General Motors as EVP and chief legal and public policy officer. He previously was chief legal officer of Activision Blizzard. … Chris DeRusha is now director of global public sector compliance for Google Cloud. He previously was federal chief information security officer for the U.S. and deputy national cyber director.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Florida first lady Casey DeSantis … WaPo’s Juliet Eilperin … NYT’s Mike Bender and Daniel Victor Emma Kinery ... Airbnb’s Elizabeth Wilner … POLITICO’s Jonathan Finkelstein and Paroma Soni … NBC’s Scott Bland ... Brunswick Group’s Dave BrownRachel GantzMark Kadesh ... Emily McBride of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) office … Mark Ritacco ... Mayer Brown’s Mickey Leibner Matthew Fery … Newsmax’s Emma RechenbergJudy Havemann ... Julie Norton … King & Spalding’s Preeya Noronha Pinto … former Virginia Gov. Chuck Robb ... former Hawaii Gov. Neil AbercrombieRoss Baker … CAA’s Mark McGrath … Merit’s Trevor Cornwell

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

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For nearly four years, the American people have faced the pain of high inflation and global conflict. Now, more than ever, it’s time to end political gamesmanship. Let’s work together on solutions that help American consumers and secure our energy future.

At a time of persistent inflation and geopolitical instability, the American people need more affordable energy and less partisanship. Here are five actions policymakers can take now that will make a difference.

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