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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we examine the national security implications of China's unmanned lunar landing on Sunday; unpack Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s China policy and parse a Chinese academic's accusation that "narcissism" powers the Biden administration's China policy. And we profile a book that recalls the "senseless brutality" of the June 1989 Tiananmen Massacre in Beijing.
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
Forget the Indo-Pacific – China has its sights on the moon
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China's flag on the far side of the moon signals a ramp-up in U.S.-China space rivalry.
No mean feat. That flag was placed there by Beijing's unmanned lander Chang'e-6 which touched down near the moon's south pole on Sunday to collect rock and soil samples before returning to lunar orbit on Tuesday. It was China's second successful landing on that region of the moon's surface since 2019.
Chang'e-6 "is a great achievement, especially considering that almost two out of every three moon landings have failed," said Svetla Ben-Itzhak, assistant professor of space and international relations at the School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
Compare that with the U.S. moon effort. That success compares with stumbles in the U.S. space program in recent years. A lack of congressional funding derailed a Trump administration pledge to return U.S. astronauts to the moon by 2024. China's investment in its space program means "it's quite possible that the next human being to the moon will be Chinese rather than from the United States," said Peter Garretson, a senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and an expert on space and defense. That's not a welcome prospect on Capitol Hill. The success of Chang'e-6 highlights "how important it is to maintain our leadership in space exploration — we can't be complacent," said Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), chair of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology.
High ambitions. Beijing plans to create a permanent base on the moon in the 2030s with its International Lunar Research Station grouping of 11 countries which include Russia, Nicaragua and Thailand. The U.S. has a rival group under its Artemis Accords coalition of 41 countries including Canada, Singapore and Angola dedicated to "exploration and use of outer space for peaceful purposes." But China's recent space successes are an ideal recruiting tool for developing countries looking for a piece of international space exploration. China "looks to have the more exciting and the more reliable program," Garretson said.
Military motives. Both groupings are bound by the Outer Space Treaty which stipulates that the use and exploration of outer space, including the moon, "be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries." The fact that much of China’s space program operates as a branch of the People's Liberation Army may complicate its compliance. NASA administrator Bill Nelson told lawmakers in April that "a lot of China’s so-called civilian space program is a military program — and I think, in effect, we are in a race."
South pole showdown. The near-term finish line for that race may be a sustainable presence on the moon's south pole recently visited by the Chang'e-6. There are indications that the area has both water and mineral resources that could sustain a moon base and possible mining operations."Establishing a base there first might provide an advantage in achieving the long-term goal of a sustainable, resilient presence in space," Ben-Itzhak said.
Long-term challenge. Guidelines on how the U.S. and China may share space on the moon is just one of the issues facing the two countries. "It’s a very long-term competition not just of science, but of values," said Scott Pace, who was executive secretary of the White House National Space Council in the Trump administration. "If we have a lot of people operating in and around the moon, what are the norms, values, and behaviors that are going to prevail? Are they going to be rule of law, democracy, human rights … or will it be something else?" said Pace, currently the director of the Space Policy Institute at the Elliott School of International Affairs.
RFK Jr. pledges to end "provocative" China policies.
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Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images |
Independent presidential election candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is fighting an uphill battle to be a credible rival to President Joe Biden and the presumptive GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump in the November election. His poll numbers hover in the mid-teens and his presence on the ballot in only four states will likely bar him from the first presidential debate later this month.
Despite those challenges, Kennedy is rolling out policy positions aimed to lure undecided and independent voters from Trump and Biden. Here are the highlights of Kennedy's China policy positions shared with China Watcher by his campaign.
No to "hot war." Kennedy will abandon the Biden and Trump administrations' "provocative policies" in order to stabilize U.S.-China ties. "China does not want a hot war … [Kennedy] will negotiate sensible and verifiable arms reduction treaties starting with matters of urgent mutual interest such as reducing the risks of bioweapons and AI weapons."
It's the economy, comrades. Rather than facing down Beijing in the Indo-Pacific through alliances such as AUKUS, the Quad and U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral, Kennedy will "shift the competition to the economic realm" while avoiding decoupling. That can end the dynamic of the U.S. "making enemies throughout the world by projecting military power even as China makes friends through its economic power."
Taiwan Kumbaya. Kennedy doesn't specify if or how the U.S. will seek to protect Taiwan from possible Chinese military aggression. His Taiwan policy is about tension reduction by assuring Beijing that the U.S. "will never attempt to use Taiwan as a pawn to weaken China." That will lead to Taiwan and China to "peacefully coexist and come to mutually satisfactory political arrangements."
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— LAWMAKERS ON GOOGLE, YOUTUBE SONG CENSORSHIP: The co-chairs of the Congressional Executive Commission on China are urging the chief executives of Google and YouTube to reverse their decision last month to remove 32 online versions of the Hong Kong pro-democracy song "Glory to Hong Kong" from their platforms (which they did in response to a Hong Kong court injunction). The injunction specified conditions for the song's removal including its "distribution with seditious intent." A blanket ban not linked to intent exceeds "what is required by the court's injunction and will have far-reaching implications for the free flow of news and information and the freedom of expression in Hong Kong," CECC Chair Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) and co-Chair Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) said in a letter to the companies on Tuesday.
Google didn't respond to a request for comment about the letter to Google chief executive Sundar Pichai. YouTube — a subsidiary of Google — said in a statement that the videos "remain viewable outside of Hong Kong" and that the company shares the commission's "commitment to ensuring freedom of expression in Hong Kong." The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in Washington declined to comment.
— BEIJING SHRUGS AT BIDEN'S TAIWAN COMMENTS: President Joe Biden's suggestion in a Time Magazine interview published on Tuesday that he may deploy "U.S. military force" to defend Taiwan evoked a minimalist response from Beijing. Taiwan's status is "purely China's internal affair that brooks no external interference," ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday. Biden also said Beijing is trying to influence the result of the U.S. presidential election in November. "There is evidence that meddling is going on … [China] would have an interest in meddling," said Biden.
— BLINKEN HONORS 'BRAVE TIANANMEN DEMONSTRATORS': Secretary of State Antony Blinken marked the 35th anniversary of the June 4, 1989, massacre of pro-democracy protesters in Beijing by criticizing Beijing's efforts to "suppress the memory" of the incident. "We echo the call of the brave Tiananmen demonstrators for the PRC to recognize and respect the human rights and fundamental freedoms enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights to which it is a signatory," Blinken said in a statement Tuesday. The House Select Committee on China held a press conference that "commemorated the legacy of Tiananmen Square" on Tuesday. Blinken's and the Select Committee's comments about the June 4 massacre are "groundless smears and accusations," said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu.
— RAHM: CHINA FAILS 'GOOD NEIGHBOR' TEST: The U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, said China has become an Indo-Pacific pariah by antagonizing its neighbors. "China is not going to win the Good Neighbor Award. Literally, there’s nobody in the neighborhood that China is not having some type of either economic or strategic challenge with," Emanuel said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday. That tension is a diplomatic win for the United States. "Countries from Japan to South Korea to Australia to Singapore to the Philippines, even Vietnam, want America’s presence because they don’t want an unmoored, untethered China that disregards their own sovereignty," Emanuel said. Beijing didn't take the bait. I "don't see how he came to such a conclusion," Mao at China's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
CHINESE TRADE CHIEF WARNS EU NOT TO GO DOWN 'DEAD END': With the European Commission set to slap tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by the middle of next week, the Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao upped his rhetorical threat to the EU. "There's no way out for protectionism, which is a dead end," Wang told Portuguese Economy Minister Pedro Reis on Tuesday, according to a Chinese government statement. "Recently the EU carried out a series of trade protectionist measures, seriously interfering with win-win cooperation between [Chinese and EU] industries and affecting Chinese enterprises' confidence in investing in Europe." Speaking to Chinese businesses in Portugal, Wang called it "absolutely unfounded" for "some countries" to accuse China of unfair competition. "Fair competition … cannot be defined by a small number of countries," he added.
Olof Gill, a spokesperson for the Commission's trade department, said the EU had been very open and clear in seeking dialogue with Beijing, listing "a flurry of highest-level missions" to China by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other senior commissioners. "We welcome competition, but it must be fair," he said at a briefing on Tuesday.
CHINESE INVESTMENT SHIFTS TO HUNGARY: Hungary received 44 percent of all Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe in 2023, overtaking the traditional big trio Germany, France and the U.K. as the main recipient of Chinese investment, according to a report by MERICS and Rhodium Group published today. The finding comes just weeks after Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a visit to Hungary, which despite EU criticisms of its human rights records is winning Beijing's heart on trade and investment.
Notably, Hungary was a key recipient of investment in the electric vehicle sector, which accounted for 69 percent of all Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe. However, there's been a decline in overall Chinese FDI in Europe, slipping to €6.8 billion, the lowest level since 2010.
BEIJING SENDS LOVE TO SLOVENIA FOR EMBRACING PALESTINE: Slovenia's decision on Wednesday to recognize a Palestinian state has won Beijing's backing. "Good to see more European countries stand for peace and justice," Wang Lutong, head of the Europe division at the Chinese Foreign Minister, said on X. "China is ready to work with Europe to promote a comprehensive, just and lasting settlement of the Palestinian question." Beijing has been rallying support for Palestinian statehood, a key concern for many developing countries as Biden began pushing for his peace roadmap for Israel and Hamas.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images |
— TAIWAN ARMS DELIVERY BACKLOG IS SHRINKING: Biden administration efforts to reduce a years-long, $19 billion backlog in delivery of U.S. weapon systems to Taiwan appears to be paying off. "The number is now close to $9 billion and falling," said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, an industry group promoting trade between the two countries. "No special effort was made to accelerate delivery given the complexities of jumping the queue, we have simply reached scheduled delivery windows," Hammond-Chambers said. Taiwan's Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao last month called the backlog a result of "deficiencies in the traditional U.S. defense industry production base."
The State Department continues to maintain that there has been no backlog. However, the department did say if there were delays, it was not due to the administration. "Any delays beyond projected delivery dates are due to industry constraints, not insufficient U.S. government prioritization," State said in a statement Wednesday. Taiwan's diplomatic outpost in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment.
— BEIJING CONFIRMS UKRAINE PEACE CONFERENCE BOYCOTT: The Chinese government confirmed Wednesday that it won't attend the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland later this month due to a "gap between the meeting's arrangement and what China stands for." Beijing's beefs include a failure by the organizers to secure participation by both Ukraine and Russia and an absence of "fair discussion of all peace plans," said a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement published Wednesday. That follows Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy's allegation on Sunday that Beijing and Russia were trying to sabotage the conference. The Ukrainian embassy in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment.
— CHINA TAKES AIM AT PHILIPPINE GUNSLINGERS:
Beijing is hopping mad at Philippine Marines stationed on a remote military outpost in the South China Sea who allegedly pointed their weapons at a China Coast Guard vessel earlier this week. Those military personnel "heightened tensions and escalated the situation" around the Second Thomas Shoal which is the focus of frequent incursions by Chinese ships, the Foreign Ministry's Mao said Tuesday. Manila denied the allegation, but warned that China's incursions into Manila's territorial waters merit scrutiny. "Foreign vessels that venture dangerously close to our military vessel … necessitate heightened vigilance and alertness from our personnel," the Armed Forces of the Philippines said in a statement.
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THREE MINUTES WITH …
Retired Snr. Col. Zhou Bo is a Chinese military expert and a senior fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security. In a recent article in Foreign Affairs, Zhou warned that "fatalism and recklessness" were pushing the U.S. and China toward conflict. China Watcher asked Zhou about the key friction points.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
You blame America's "self-penchant and narcissism" for tensions in the U.S.-China relationship. Explain.
This is a country that has described itself as a "city upon a hill" or in former Secretary of State Madeline Albright's term, "indispensable." But when even older Americans realize that the country actually is not necessarily moving in the right direction, then this narcissism will start to hurt. And it will make the United States look for an enemy. And that is why I believe narcissism has a lot to do with American strategy toward China.
You say "Beltway analysts have greatly exaggerated China's supposed threat to Western democratic systems and international order." What about China's aid to Russia allowing Vladimir Putin to continue to wage war on Ukraine?
China and Russia are the largest neighbors to one another. Therefore, China needs to develop its relationship with Russia, but it also has a few bottom lines and China so far has been upholding those bottom lines. Beijing cannot stop the war and the reason is very simple — neither side wants to stop the war. Not even Washington wants it to stop.
Biden has created or revived coalitions — AUKUS, the Quad — aimed to offset China's growing diplomatic, economic and military footprint in the Indo-Pacific. You call these groupings "tiny islands in a vast ocean." Explain.
If in a worst-case scenario there's a war with China, how many American allies are really countable? My odds are less than one handful. In spite of the fact that the United States has some 60 allies and partners, when it comes to the ultimate question —"would you follow me in a war with China?" — not more than five. And each one of them will have their own conditions. For example, the most likely one [to support the U.S. in conflict] is Japan. Japan most probably will provide logistical support, will provide military bases, but won’t go beyond that because Japanese public opinion is against a direct war with China.
HEADLINES
Wall Street Journal: China is 'prepositioning' for future cyberattacks—and the new NSA chief is worried
The Guardian: Surviving Tiananmen: ‘I might have been one of the hundreds or thousands who lost their lives’
China Media Project: Talking Tiananmen with a Chinese Chatbot
HEADS UP
— HERE COMES THE DALAI LAMA: The spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, the Dalai Lama, will travel from his home in exile in Dharmsala, India to the U.S. later this month. "From June 20 onwards until further notice, His Holiness the Dalai Lama is scheduled to travel to the United States for medical treatment on his knees," the Dalai Lama's office said in a statement on Monday.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
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The Book: June Fourth: The Tiananmen Protests and Beijing Massacre of 1989
The Author: Jeremy Brown is a professor of history at Simon Fraser University.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
Students were important but not at the center of the story of 1989. What happened outside Beijing was at least as pivotal as what happened in the capital. And the massacre of unarmed civilians was avoidable and not inevitable.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
The personal stories of the victims of the massacre. The Tiananmen Mothers, an advocacy group of survivors, has interviewed victims’ family members. Their stories show what people were doing when the People’s Liberation Army killed them on June 3, 4, and 5, 1989: taking pictures of the crackdown, selling watermelons, going out to get breakfast, buying medicine for a sick child. These victims had no intention of blocking the army or resisting the massacre, they were in the wrong place at the wrong time
What does the historical amnesia that the CCP has imposed about the events of June 4, 1989 say about the insecurities of China's authoritarian leaders?Xi Jinping has spoken clearly about his belief that the crackdown was correct and necessary. But in the censorship, security, and stability maintenance bureaucracies that serve Xi, there is an inertia that continues to treat June 4th as a highly sensitive topic and dangerous anniversary, even though other more recent travesties — Xinjiang, Hong Kong — have become more sensitive than something that happened 35 years ago. It is safer for low- and mid-level functionaries to continue censoring June 4th-related material than it is to follow Xi’s lead in celebrating the crackdown.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt and digital producers Emma Cordover and Natália Delgado. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at pkine@politico.com and slau@politico.com.
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