Trudeau, Trump and the next G7

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jun 14, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan and Zi-Ann Lum


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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ The West is putting up a united front at the G7. But will it next time?

→ Playbook catches up with ANITA ANAND on her plans for this summer.

→ Who’s up, who’s down.

DRIVING THE DAY

From right, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, U.S. President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Council President Charles Michel watch a skydiving demo during the G7 world leaders summit at Borgo Egnazia, Italy, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP   Photo/Domenico Stinellis)

The G7 leaders watch a skydiving demonstration on Thursday. | AP

CANADA’S G7: TBD — Canada hosts next year’s G7 summit. The location, exact timing and who will be the Canadian prime minister in the host seat — all still TBD.

The last time Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU hosted, way back in the pre-pandemic days of June 2018, the Charlevoix summit almost went off without a hitch.

— Remember when: From the outside, things seemed fine right up until then-President DONALD TRUMP got on the plane to leave early, heading out for a summit with North Korea’s KIM JONG UN.

PETER NAVARRO then declared a “special place in hell” for Trudeau who he accused of trying to “stab [Trump] in the back on the way out the door.” The prime minister had told a closing presser that Canada was not going to be “pushed around” on trade. Trump withdrew from the final communique and tweeted that the PM was “dishonest & weak.” Things spiraled from there.

Trump divided the group over trade, climate, Iran and Russia.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel deliberates with President Donald Trump  on the second day of the G7 summit on June 9, 2018, in Charlevoix, Canada.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel deliberates with President Donald Trump on the second day of the G7 summit on June 9, 2018, in Charlevoix. | Jesco Denzel /Bundesregierung via Getty Images

— Chance of a re-run: Depending on the outcome of the U.S. election, Canada could be in store to host another Trump-infused confab.

— Risks and rewards: “It's a classic opportunity and the timing could be helpful to Trudeau in pre-election mode” and shine the spotlight on a region of the country the PM wants to focus on, said the Munk School’s DREW FAGAN. “The risk of that, especially with the potential of the Trump presidency, is the possibility that something could go wrong as happened in 2018.”

— In the background: Trump’s shadow looms large over this year’s summit, given his lack of commitment to Ukraine and the suggestion he’d "encourage" Russia to attack NATO allies who don't pony up on defense spending.

“Trump 1.0 … was volatile, unpredictable, disruptive — but he didn't destroy anything,” said Carleton international affairs professor FEN HAMPSON. “Trump 2.0 may be a lot more destructive of the international multilateral machinery, including the G7, so that's going to be a big challenge for Canada if he wins.

“He's already said on the campaign trail that war will end tomorrow [if he’s elected]. Well, it's only going to end like that if the Americans decide to withdraw their support for Ukraine and cut a deal with VLADIMIR PUTIN.”

U.S. President JOE BIDEN and Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYYforged a security pact this week in a show against Russia, but it’s one that could be easily torn up if Trump comes into office.

— Time check: T-minus two weeks until Biden and Trump face off in their first debate of the 2024 campaign.

— Circle is shrinking: Among the group of leaders, Trudeau has been in office the longest and many others are even on their way out, with Britain’s RISHI SUNAK and France’s EMMANUEL MACRON waging steep election battles. Few of this year’s faces could be returning, and next year Trudeau could be the lame duck in the group.

— Unknown unknowns: Two major wars overshadow this year’s Italy meetup, but the geopolitical uncertainty and elections make it hard to elicit predictions for a summit driven by world leaders and events.

— Ukraine, Freeland score big win: G7 leaders agreed to a $50 billion loan of sorts to Ukraine backed by interest from frozen Russian assets — which Biden had pushed for.

Details of the rollout which starts this year are TBD. Canada has long been “providing the thought leadership” and driving the agenda on that move, Hampson said, “very much driven by Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND, who has worked her ties with Washington and Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN.”

“If we're going to talk about foreign policy successes for Canada, of which some would say there are not many — this is one of them.”

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is at the G7 in Italy. On his bilat agenda: European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN, POPE FRANCIS (first pope to a G7), Japan’s PM FUMIO KISHIDA, African Union Chairperson CHEIKH EL GHAZOUANI.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with no public events scheduled.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is scheduled for a Toronto fundraiser at the York Club in the Annex.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is canvassing with NDP Toronto-St. Paul's candidate AMRIT PARHAR.

DULY NOTED

8:45 a.m. (2:45 p.m. in Brussels): National Defense Minister BILL BLAIR will hold a media availability after wrapping talks at NATO HQ in Brussels after a meeting with the alliance’s defense ministers.

11 a.m. Tourism Minister SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA will hold a press conference via Microsoft Teams to make a funding announcement to support Quebec entrepreneurs.

6 p.m. Governor General MARY SIMON will present the 2023 Michener Awards for meritorious public service journalism during a ceremony at Rideau Hall.

For your radar


SUMMER HOMEWORK — Whether it’s JOE BIDEN or DONALD TRUMP in the White House this time next year, American protectionism will remain a top concern in Ottawa.

“We need to reduce barriers to trade — cross-border as well as within this country,” Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND said this week after she and her U.S. counterpart, U.S. Office of Management and Budget Director SHALANDA YOUNG, confirmed plans to revive the Canada-United States Regulatory Cooperation Council.

— Timelines and action plans: “That’s what I’m going to be doing all summer, hopefully before your baby’s born,” Anand said, nodding to your Playbooker’s 30-week bump during an interview Tuesday at Toronto’s Ritz-Carlton on the sidelines of the BMO-Eurasia Group US-Canada Summit.

— Why now: The announcement comes as the Canadian government ramps up its “Team Canada” engagement strategy against threats of U.S. protectionism.

For Pros: Election countdown spurs race to reduce Canada-U.S. red tape.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

HEAT IS ON, AGAIN NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH upped the ante and intrigue on the bombshell NSICOP report everyone wants to read uncensored.

He told reporters it left him even more alarmed that a number of MPs knowingly helped foreign governments and called the lawmakers “traitors to the country.”

— It’s the little details: CBC’s CATHARINE TUNNEY points out Singh wouldn’t say if the allegedly traitorous lawmakers are still sitting in Parliament.

Singh also told reporters he was a target of foreign interference, but would not say how.

— Strikes a contrast: It was a full 180 from what Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY said the day prior. May expressed relief and said the media hype was overblown. One reporter asked Singh if they even read the same document.

Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET blasted the pair in a statement for telling Canadians conflicting things and “indirectly revealing” contents of the report.

Singh stoked the controversy, firing off shots at the PM for failing to act on the intel, and PIERRE POILIEVRE for failing to read it.

— Impeccable timing: His predecessor TOM MULCAIR appeared on television the same day and came to the Conservative leader’s defense.

“I would never have accepted to read it either,” he said on CTV. “Never. I don’t want to be hamstrung as the leader of a party. I don’t want to be told that now that I’ve seen this, I can’t say that.

— Faster than light: The Liberal government’s anti-foreign interference Bill C-70 rocketed through the Commons and exited the Chamber Thursday. It’s now in the Senate’s pocket.

— Related listening: STEPHANIE CARVIN was on “The Big Story” podcast Thursday to
discuss foreign interference, intelligence gathering and how to protect Canada's interests while still keeping the public informed.It's not as simple as naming names.

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN

UP: Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY, who uncharacteristically had the full attention of Hill watchers this week with her thoughts on an unredacted report on foreign interference.

DOWN: The province of Alberta, after NDP MLA SHANNON PHILLIPS announced her plans to exit politics. “I’m the next in a line of woman politicians who are taking a pass,” she said.

MEDIA ROOM


— Canada will soon require a policy allowing workers to disconnect. It won’t apply to public servants, CATHERINE MORRISON of the Ottawa Citizen reports.

— “Too many people, too fast.” STEPHEN MAHER looks at the Liberal government’s immigration policies in a feature for Maclean’s: “How we got to 41 million.”

— McGill University's DANIEL BÉLAND joined “The Hot Room” pod to explain what Quebecers make of the federal parties.

IAN BRODIE substacks some suggestions to aspiring ministers and spotlights a policy idea from a former PM he once worked for: “Given the looming debt crises in both countries, [STEPHEN HARPER’s] idea to eliminate business subsidies through USMCA II is timely.”

— Toronto Star reporter ANDY TAKAGI had internet-famous menswear blogger DEREK GUY review how Canadian political leaders dress, including JUSTIN TRUDEAU, DOUG FORD, JAGMEET SINGH, PIERRE POILIEVRE and JOHN TORY.

PROZONE


Don’t miss the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers via ZI-ANN LUM: The elephant and the U.S.-Canada Summit.

In other news for Pro readers:  

Ng says Canada will defend supply management in 2026 USMCA review.

Top COP29 official quashes potential fossil fuel levy.

Ukraine wants peace but can’t trust Russia.

Trump enlists bitcoin to save fossil fuels.

China threatens to challenge European EV duties at WTO.

NATO exceeds 300,000 force target amid Russian threat.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to podcaster and strategist DAVID HERLE; Montreal Mayor VALÉRIE PLANTE (50!); Ontario MPP JOHN YAKABUSKI; New Brunswick MLA FRANCINE LANDRY; former MPs HOANG MAI, DOUG ROWLAND and MARK ASSAD.

HBD + 1 to Public Services and Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS and Canadian Association of Journalists chair ZANE SCHWARTZ.

On Saturday: Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH (40!).

On Sunday: Former Liberal Cabmin NAV BAINS.

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way.

Spotted: Conservative MP MARTY MORANTZ, quoting Tennyson in the House: “To strive, to seek, to find and not to yield.”

Labor and Seniors Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN, fusing his portfolios in a Canadian Club Toronto lunchtime keynote about "growth, productivity and the care economy" inside One King West's fancy Grand Banking Hall.

Sen. RAYMONDE SAINT-GERMAIN in the Senate this week, kicking off tributes to MOBINA JAFFER, who is retiring. “She is one of the greats to whom we will refer long after they have left the Senate,” Saint-Germain said. Read the farewell speeches.

Governor General MARY SIMON, sporting orange and blue. (Go, Edmonton!)

— In the Senate gallery: Philippine Ambassador to Canada MARIA ANDRELITA AUSTRIA and Lt. Gov. of Alberta SALMA LAKHANI.

Noted: Canada’s premiers set out an agenda for their summer meetings in Halifax from July 15 to 17.

Cabmins JONATHAN WILKINSON and SEAN FRASER attended a Vancouver party fundraiser alongside 14 donors, including city councilors REBECCA BLIGH and LISA DOMINATO, former city councilor RAYMOND LOUIE, Global Public Affairs VP NICOLE BRASSARD and art collector BOB RENNIE.

Movers and shakers: Oyster Group emerged Thursday as the newest comms firm in the game. The firm "will provide strategic communications and crisis management support to Canada’s C-suite leaders." Three of Oyster's founding partners — MIKE VAN SOELEN, AMANDA GALBRAITH and JAMES SANDERS — have worked at Navigator. Proof Strategies Chair BRUCE MACLELLAN is a fourth partner.

CPAC's NOAH RICHARDSON leaves the broadcaster at the end of the day for the National Arts Centre Orchestra, where he'll start as a communications strategist later this month.

GRAHAM RICHARDSON, anchor of "CTV News at Six," announced he is stepping away from the anchor desk.

Media mentions: The 2024-25 William Southam Journalism Fellows are ASHLEY FITZPATRICK, MOSTAFA AL-A’SAR, BEATRICE SENADJU, JONATHAN GOLDSBIE and SHREE PARADKAR.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

ON THE HILL

Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: JOHN A. MACDONALD served as prime minister for 6,934 days.

Props to JENN KEAY, BOB PLAMONDON, CAMERON RYAN, DARREN MAJOR, SYDNEY LINHOLM, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, CHELSEA BARRY, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, SARA MAY, BOB GORDON, JOHN MERRIMAN, CHRIS RANDS, JOHN ECKER and ANJUM SULTANA.

Friday’s question: “It was a jolting reminder that we as a city have got big-city problems,” said former B.C. Premier CHRISTY CLARK. “With big-city status and big-city attractiveness and big-city growth, you get big-city problems.” What was CLARK referring to?

Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Correction: Thursday’s Playbook identified Martin Kon as Cohere’s CEO. He is the president and COO of Cohere.

 

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