| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  President Joe Biden (left) made a splash at the G7 summit in Italy today, extending security guarantees to Ukraine for the next 10 years. | Andrew Medichini/AP | With help from Miles Herszenhorn, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric President JOE BIDEN is signing agreements left and right to make sure DONALD TRUMP doesn’t hang Ukraine out to dry if he’s elected — but one in particular may have the best chance at evading Trump’s evisceration of Biden’s policies. NATO members will soon sign off on a new plan for the alliance to take over from the U.S. in coordinating military aid to Ukraine. It’s broadly seen as a way to “Trump-proof” the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an alliance to support Ukraine that’s been under the Pentagon’s control since Russia invaded. Such a shift makes “sense no matter which candidate wins the U.S. election in November,” DOUGLAS LUTE, former U.S. ambassador to NATO in the Obama administration, told NatSec Daily. “NATO knows how to integrate and standardize funding, materiel, training and intelligence assistance for Ukraine and should be made responsible for doing so — no matter who is the next U.S. president,” Lute added. Formalizing the group within NATO would help shield Ukraine from Trump’s potential shunning of Ukraine, experts say, as it could help maintain the flow of arms to Kyiv and avoid domestic squabbles that have caused U.S. support to Kyiv to slow. Biden made another splash at the G7 summit in Italy today, extending security guarantees to Ukraine for the next 10 years. It’s an obvious effort by the Biden administration to reassure Kyiv that Washington is by its side for the long haul. It’ll see the U.S. help Ukraine bolster its defense-industrial base, coordinate on Kyiv’s future weapons needs and inch Ukraine closer to joining NATO. But there’s a catch to this one: Trump could easily rip up the agreement if he takes office. “Anything that the Biden administration is doing right now, including this bilateral security agreement with Ukraine, is something that can be undone, sabotaged or rolled back by a Trump administration,” DOUG KLAIN, an Atlantic Council analyst focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, told NatSec Daily. The security deal is only between the current U.S. and Ukrainian administrations, and it won’t be ratified by Congress. It’s still an important strategy, Klain added, because Biden and future administrations could be held to the agreement and risk political backlash if they renege, similar to how Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. “If a potential President Trump 2.0 deviates from that or abandons it altogether, the political cost of that deviation is really raised,” Klain said. Of course, Trump has repeatedly proven he isn’t too worried about political costs. But backing out of the deal would undoubtedly cause uproar among the many Ukraine backers in Congress and abroad. To solidify support for Ukraine before November, the White House is pushing forward with a number of other actions to put Ukraine in a good position. Today, G7 leaders officially reached an agreement on a plan to send Ukraine a $50 billion loan backed by the interest from frozen Russian assets, our European pals scooped. And the U.S. recently greenlit the deployment of another Patriot missile defense system from Poland to Ukraine, multiple outlets report — as Kyiv lobbies for more ahead of the winter. Regardless, some Ukranians are bracing for a change: “My sincere hope is that the USA will stay as global power #1 even if Trump is elected,” VOLODYMYR OMELYAN, Ukraine’s former infrastructure minister, texted NatSec Daily Read: Ukraine, allies clash over F-16 training by our own LARA SELIGMAN
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The F-35 is the most significant defense program in the U.S., powering small and large businesses and creating high-paying, high-tech and manufacturing jobs for workers in the innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | ‘HAMAS NEEDS TO MOVE’: Biden today expressed doubts that a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas would soon come together, telling reporters that “Hamas needs to move,” our own ADAM CANCRYN reports. “No,” Biden responded when asked if he was confident a peace deal was imminent. But, he added, “I haven’t lost hope.” Hamas wants to see the Israeli government publicly signal its support for the three-phase cease-fire deal, the militant group said today, adding that it’s negotiating in good faith, The Washington Post’s LEO SANDS, LOVEDAY MORRIS and HAJAR HARB report. After Biden announced the “Israeli proposal” in late May, there have been doubts about whether Israel actually supports it, due to combative statements from top Israeli officials on the matter. But Israel does back the deal, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters today, and the White House still believes an agreement to reach phase one is possible. “We are working actively to generate a path forward based on what Hamas has come in with,” Sullivan said. While negotiators hash it out, Israel conducted some of its heaviest bombing on Rafah since its operation began, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI reports. Residents said Israeli forces pushed toward the Al-Mawasi area of Rafah, which has been designated as a humanitarian area. Israel denied that it has launched any strikes in the zone. UKRAINE PEACE (CHINA’S VERSION): China is pushing its rival Ukraine peace plan ahead of a Swiss summit, despite pledging to boycott the gathering, according to Reuters’ LAURIE CHEN and LIZ LEE. Diplomats told the outlet that China is promoting the six-point peace plan for Ukraine it unveiled with Brazil last month. The plan, which calls for direct negotiations at a peace conference between Russia and Ukraine, has earned the support of the Kremlin and 45 other governments, per Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI. But China won’t be at the conference of more than 90 countries, arguing it will not participate in peace talks where Russia is not present. Beijing has pledged “neutrality” in the conflict, but Ukraine’s allies accuse China of using the conflict as a way to deepen ties with Moscow. WASHINGTON’S CUBAN SUB: In a rare move today, the U.S. military announced that an attack submarine was visiting the naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, as a Russian flotilla conducts military exercises in the Caribbean, Eric reports. The USS Helena, a Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine, would stop at the base for “a routine port visit as it transits the U.S. Southern Command geographic area of responsibility,” U.S. Southern Command said in a statement. The visit, Southern Command said, was “previously planned,” but it coincides with Wednesday’s arrival of a Russian nuclear submarine and several frigates to the port of Havana for an official port call. The Russian fleet, which sailed close to the Florida coast as it approached Havana, will also make stops in Venezuela and conduct military exercises in the Caribbean. EVAN ON TRIAL: Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH will stand trial on espionage charges in a court near Yekaterinburg, Russia’s Prosecutor General announced today. The announcement claimed that an investigation demonstrated that Gershkovich was collecting “secret information” about the production of military equipment, but it provided no evidence to back up its claims of espionage. WSJ and U.S. officials have rebuked those claims and repeatedly called for his release. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | | BIDEN’S ACHILLES HEEL? Allies gathered in Italy are openly fretting that Biden’s support for Israel could pave the way for former President DONALD TRUMP to return to the White House, our own ADAM CANCRYN and NAHAL TOOSI report. Five foreign policy experts and former U.S. government officials in touch with foreign officials said that allies worry the Israel-Hamas war has made Biden look weak among voters and reinforced the idea that the world is full of out-of-control conflicts. Though not one of the main topics of discussion at the G7 summit, the war in Gaza is nevertheless poised to cloud discussions at the gathering this weekend. “The level of concern is something between panic and terror,” said JEREMY SHAPIRO, a former Obama State Department official in touch with European diplomats. “The alliance is too important for these countries right now.” Read: 6 lame ducks and Giorgia Meloni: Meet the G7 class of 2024
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | MICROSOFT HIT HARD: Microsoft’s top executive is on the Hill asking lawmakers to forgive him and the company for recent cybersecurity slip ups that allowed Chinese hackers last summer to penetrate the State and Commerce Departments’ systems. But it’s not clear that members of the House Homeland Security Committee are ready to accept BRAD SMITH’s apologies for a “cascade” of security errors. A whistleblower has alleged that the company dismissed warnings about critical flaws in their software, according to ProPublica’s RENEE DUDLEY. And our colleagues at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) previewed this morning that both Democrats and Republicans are looking for answers as to how the lapses could have occurred. Lawmakers are also looking to probe Microsoft’s business ties with China and its botched roll-out of AI software Recall, according to a spokesperson for committee chair Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) and a Democratic aide on the committee.
| | | |   | | | | | EASE UP, JOE: An increasing number of Biden’s allies on Capitol Hill are pushing the administration to let Kyiv strike deeper into Russia with U.S.-made weapons, our own JOE GOULD and Miles report. A number of Democrats said that their minds changed about allowing Kyiv to strike into Russia after meeting with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in Normandy last week: “I respect the president’s concerns and the concerns of many about how deep into Russia to facilitate strikes, but I think Zelenskyy’s made reasonable requests and we ought to pursue them,” said Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), a top Biden ally. WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM PENNY’S FRIENDS: The White House’s special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery asked friends in Chicago’s business community to help shore up Ukrainian businesses, our own SHIA KAPOS scoops in Illinois Playbook. PENNY PRITZKER, sister of Illinois Governor JB PRITZKER and former President BARACK OBAMA’s Commerce Secretary, asked Chicago-based Aon Corp to help fund Ukrainian insurance companies on the ground as a way to attract investment for companies in the country.
| | PROGRESSIVES TAKE ON DEFENSE BUDGET: Rep. MARK POCAN (D-Wis.) and other progressive Democrats are taking a shot at defense spending in a new video, the first in a series of videos the Wisconsin Democrat has planned to make the case against hefty Pentagon budgets. Pocan and Rep. BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) lead a caucus aimed at drumming up support for cutting Pentagon spending. The video features Pocan, Lee and fellow progressive Reps. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.), JIM McGOVERN (D-Mass.), and PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) slamming the Pentagon for wasteful spending and not passing an audit, while domestic priorities come up short. "If they can't account for equipment. If they can't justify why a hammer has to cost hundreds of dollars, then we shouldn't be spending that money. It's really that simple," Pocan says in the video. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ACLU NDAA PUSH: The American Civil Liberties Union sent letters to lawmakers urging them to vote against several amendments included in this year’s defense policy bill, after the House narrowly passed legislation on Wednesday. According to the letter, the National Defense Authorization Act amendments they oppose would block women in the military from having access to abortion and reproductive health care; block servicemembers from having access to gender-affirming health care; dismantle the programs developed to end racism and other discrimination in the military through diversity, equity and inclusion programming; and ban freedom of expression and display of the rainbow flag, among others measures. The House Appropriations Committee voted today to send defense spending legislation to the floor over the objections of Democrats, Connor reports (for Pros!).
| | EYE ON THE SPIES: NATO and its members plan on taking tougher actions against Russian spies in response to Moscow's campaign of hostile activities, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said today. “We have seen several examples of sabotage, of arson attempts, of cyberattacks, of disinformation," Stoltenberg told reporters, per our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA. The NATO chief said he expects the member country ministers to address the Russian campaign during a meeting of NATO defense ministers today and Friday in Brussels. Russian agents are also worrying the EU. In a letter sent to the bloc’s top diplomat JOSEP BORRELL and seen by POLITICO, eight foreign ministers said Russian diplomats should be restricted from moving freely within the EU countries, amid growing accusations of Kremlin spying operations within the bloc. Read: Russia meddling in Moldova elections, Western allies allege by our own GABRIEL GAVIN BRUSSELS’ BAKU PLAY: Europe has a new idea to cut off Moscow: Buy gas from Azerbaijan. As Gabriel, FEDERICA DI SARIO and VICTOR JACK report, Europe has provided Azerbaijan with a proposal to transfer its gas through a pipeline Russia currently services. A top aide to Azerbaijani leader ILHAM ALIYEV confirmed Baku is currently reviewing the details and seeing how it can participate. It’s a risky gambit for Europe, as Baku has grown closer to Moscow in response to warming relations between neighboring Armenia and the West. But the move comes as a transit deal for gas is set to expire later this year between Kyiv and Moscow. Central European countries are voicing concerns that a reduction in Russian-supplied gas could limit industrial production and the ability to heat homes in the winter.
| | — DAVID HERNDON, a public affairs officer at the Pentagon, is leaving the Department of Defense’s office of public affairs as part of a new assignment. — MARGARITA KONAEV is now head of responsible AI for Google Public Sector. She previously was deputy director of analysis and research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. — Rev. MATTHEW CARNES will become vice president of mission and ministry at Santa Clara University. The Jesuit priest and Latin America scholar most recently served as vice dean of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.
| | — JANET YELLEN, The New York Times: Use Russia’s assets to support Ukraine — Editorial board, The Wall Street Journal: The G-7 dwarfs, and GIORGIA MELONI — AARON GLASSERMAN and LAUREN BARNEY, Foreign Affairs: China’s do-nothing strategy in the Middle East
| | — United States Institute of Peace, 11 a.m.: Preparing the next generation of diplomats. — Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 11:30 a.m.: Trouble Across the Pond: Democratic Crises and the Future of the West. — Henry L. Stimson Center, 12 p.m.: Book discussion about “The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century.” Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who rips up NatSec Daily with every opportunity. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who puts it all back together for our beloved readers.
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