| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Messing with Hezbollah is a riskier gamble for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than hammering Hamas because of the group’s greater military capabilities and ability to inflict greater damage on Israel, an expert told POLITICO. | Pool photo by Shaul Golan | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn, Phelim Kine, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The Biden administration is trying hard to stop a war between Israel and Hezbollah from breaking out, but there are no signs yet that its efforts are paying off. Israel appears closer to conducting a military operation against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU vowed to move some Israel’s forces to its northern border with Lebanon. That comes less than a week after U.S. special envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN visited the region in an attempt to defuse tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. There are no indications — from Netanyahu at least — that Washington’s efforts via Hochstein are panning out. The U.S. is watching the situation closely and appears to be making moves in preparation. Joint Chiefs Chair C.Q. BROWN warned on Sunday that an Israel offensive into Lebanon could draw in Iran and spark a wider war, putting American troops in the region at risk. The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, which was in the Pacific, will soon depart for the Middle East. And a DOD official told our own LARA SELIGMAN that the USS Wasp — a U.S. Marine Corps amphibious warship — is currently in the Mediterranean Sea and is headed east, adding to U.S. firepower in Israel’s backyard. But Israel is in the driver’s seat of this conflict, former U.S. officials told NatSec Daily, and it’s mostly up to them whether or not it escalates. The decision to go to war right now “really lies in Israel's hands,” said MICHAEL SINGH, a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. “Is now the time it wants to fight this war, or would it rather call it a day if it can achieve some kind of calm in Gaza and leave it for another day? We just don’t know.” That’s because despite Hezbollah’s provocations, the group appears to be deterred and doesn’t want a full-scale conflict, Singh told NaySec Daily. Instead, it wants to keep pressure on Israel and show its support for Hamas militants, he told NatSec Daily. Hezbollah has said it won’t stop attacking Israel until its operation in Gaza stops. It’s unclear whether Hezbollah would agree to any peace deal with Israel. But Netanyahu doesn’t want to pull out of Gaza: He seemingly rejected the cease-fire proposal that’s on the table, saying that he’s willing to make a partial deal with Hamas but will continue the war after the truce is made. Today, he walked back the comment and said he backs the proposal. Without a deal between Israel and Hezbollah to keep things at bay, it’s likely that the Israel Defense Forces presence in Gaza will shrink considerably in the coming weeks as Netanyahu’s priorities shift, JONATHAN LORD, a former Defense Department official, told NatSec Daily. It’ll be clear that an Israeli operation is imminent when IDF reserves are called up and active duty troops see some rest and refit time, he added. Messing with Hezbollah is a riskier gamble for Netanyahu than hammering Hamas because of the group’s greater military capabilities and ability to inflict greater damage on Israel, said WILL TODMAN, deputy director in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It is going to be very difficult to reverse this escalatory cycle and step back from the brink,” Todman told NatSec Daily.
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The F-35 securely connects high-tech platforms and seamlessly shares information across every domain to deliver what’s needed for a successful mission. Learn more. | | | | | RAFAH TALKS… AND TENSION: Israeli forces have taken control of the eastern, southern, and central parts of the southern city of Rafah in Gaza as residents describe heavy fighting in the area, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI reports. Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT is in Washington to meet with top U.S. officials about winding down the Israeli operation in Gaza. He met with CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS today and is later scheduled to meet with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on Tuesday and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on Wednesday. But the intense Israeli operation in Rafah is “is about to end,” Netanyahu also said Sunday in the interview with Israeli television. He also blasted the Biden administration for a “dramatic drop” in U.S. weapons shipments to Israel in recent months, a claim the White House has repeatedly denied. AFRICAN CHARM OFFENSIVE: Joint Chiefs Chair Brown is making a rare foreign trip to Africa this week as the U.S. looks to shore up its partnerships on the continent. The entreaties from Washington follow several U.S. setbacks in West Africa. A spate of coups in key military partners such as Niger last year saw governments friendly to Russia pop up across the region. Niger’s military government has expelled American troops stationed in the Sahel country and the U.S. wants to find a new home for the U.S. military in the region. An official told Reuters’ PHIL STEWART that the administration has had initial conversations with Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. But it is unlikely that the U.S. will fully replace the large military and counterterrorism presence it had built in Niger, where it stationed hundreds of troops and invested $100 million in a key drone base at Agadez. ATTACKING ATACMS: Russian officials today warned of “consequences” for the United States after they accused Washington of being involved in deadly strikes on Russian-occupied Crimea using U.S.-made rockets, our own JOSHUA POSANER reports. Moscow claimed fragments from an Army Tactical Missile System missile donated to Ukraine by the U.S. detonated in mid-air after being struck by air defenses, killing four people and injuring 151 on the ground, per Russian state media. “The involvement of the United States of America in hostilities, direct involvement in hostilities that result in the death of Russian civilians, this, of course, cannot but have consequences," said Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV, per state media. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | THE PENTAGON’S CYBER WINDFALL: House appropriators have thrown their support to some key Pentagon cyber initiatives in this year’s defense budget, even as they want to see more progress from the Defense Department on risk management. As our colleagues at Weekly Cybersecurity write, the House defense spending bill working its way through Congress would limit new software pilots in the next fiscal year. But appropriators have left several goodies for the Pentagon’s cyber programs, namely DOD’s defensive cyber operations and its space and maritime projects, among other areas. The quiet show of support for those programs comes as House appropriators try to nudge the Pentagon to fully embrace recommendations from a recent Government Accountability Office report that found that the Pentagon still has a lot to do to implement several key practices. Lawmakers want more action to identify counterfeits. They also want the Pentagon to commit to a timeline for a department-wide information and communications technology supply chain risk management strategy. Scroll down to On the Hill for more details on the bill and the more than 400 amendments currently on the docket.
| | | PIER UPDATE: The U.S. military delivered 3 million pounds of aid over the U.S.-built pier to the beach of Gaza over the weekend, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told reporters today, as Lara writes in. There will be a “scheduled maintenance pause” to undertake some “maintenance activities” on the pier today, Ryder said. The pier will resume normal operations on Tuesday. Overall, the U.S. military has delivered 13.6 million pounds worth of aid over the pier to the beach, Ryder said. THAWING ASSETS: The European Union today approved a first tranche of up to $1.5 billion in military assistance for Ukraine, which will come from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets, four diplomats told our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI. The money won't be used for reimbursements, as is normally the case with the UAF, but for direct purchases of kit like ammunition and aerial defense systems. A quarter of the amount will be used for purchases from Ukrainian industries. That money is channeled to Ukraine through the Ukraine Assistance Fund, but payments have been blocked by Russia-friendly Hungary. However, the EU’s legal service argued that Budapest can’t stop these payments because it abstained in the vote earlier this year creating the UAF. Despite today's agreement, Hungary is continuing to block the payment of $7.1 billion under the UAF as a partial reimbursement for weapons purchased for Ukraine. Read: France deepens military ties with Germany, Poland ahead of risky snap election by our own LAURA KAYALI
| | | |   | | | | | ‘ABSOLUTELY UNQUALIFIED’: Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) condemned the Biden administration for tapping a top State Department aide — whose nomination for another posting had been stalled by Republicans — for a top job in the defense secretary’s office, Matt, JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN report. DEREK CHOLLET, the State Department counselor, will replace KELLY MAGSAMEN as the new chief of staff to DefSec Austin, the Pentagon chief announced today. The Washington Post’s MISSY RYAN previously reported the move. “He is absolutely unqualified for this position,” said McCaul, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, calling it an “ill-advised decision.” “With the many national security threats this country is facing, we need real leadership at the Defense Department — and Derek Chollet is not that,” McCaul added. “I strongly urge the secretary to reconsider this move.” McCaul, whose panel is leading an investigation into the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, has been an antagonist of Chollet and had argued against his earlier nomination to lead the Pentagon’s policy office. Chollet was Biden’s pick for the Pentagon’s top policy job but his confirmation was stalled in the Senate for months amid Republican backlash. AMENDMENTS TIME: The House Rules Committee will take up the Pentagon budget Tuesday afternoon, and as our colleagues at Morning Defense (for Pros!) write, lawmakers will be busy processing a tranche of over 400 amendments. Ukraine will likely dominate a lot of debate time. Ukraine Caucus co-chairs Reps. MARCY KAPTUR (D-Ohio), MIKE QUIGLEY (D-Ill.) and BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Penn.) have reintroduced an amendment to the bill that would provide $300 million to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Meanwhile, Reps. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) and PAUL GOSAR (R-Ariz.) are pushing amendments that respectively bar any funds from the bill going to Ukraine and block weapons transfers to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Reps. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) proposed an amendment to remove House-passed language that would force President Joe Biden to send arms shipments to Israel that he is withholding. Smith also introduced a provision slashing the number of F-35s produced from 76 to 58, mirroring the House version of the NDAA. Democrats have criticized the bill, which passed in committee along party lines, for its focus on culture war issues, including provisions on abortion, climate change, LGBTQ troops and diversity and inclusion.
| | ZELENSKYY CLEANS HOUSE: Ukraine is reorganizing the state guard after two of its officers were accused of plotting to assassinate President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, according to Reuters’ YULIIA DYSA. In a move dubbed a “purge” by Reuters, the state guard’s new leader OLEKSIY MOROZOV told staff that “the agency must be cleared of anyone who chooses not Ukraine for themselves or discredits the state guard service.” The overhaul follows a series of setbacks of the agency, which provides security for Ukrainian government officials. Zelenskyy fired the agency’s leader in May, days after two agency employees were arrested on charges they worked for Russia's Federal Security Service and leaked classified information to Moscow. CRISIS IN CRISIS COMMS: Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL warned today about inadequate U.S.-China military crisis communication systems could lead to “inadvertent escalation” in the Indo-Pacific, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. “It’s critical to try to establish confidence-building and crisis mechanisms to deal with inadvertence and miscalculation, which I believe in the near term is the biggest risk that we face,” Campbell said at a Council on Foreign Relations event. “We built some of these mechanisms before, but then in moments of crisis when we've sought to use them, phones rang in empty rooms without being picked up, mechanisms that were established were not fielded.” U.S. efforts in that direction are moving slowly. A bilateral “crisis-communications working group” won’t launch until later this year, the Pentagon said last month. And a meeting between Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. SAMUEL PAPARO and his Chinese counterparts won’t happen until “until next year at some point,” Campbell said. CHINA’S CONCERN: The deepening military ties between Russia and North Korea are concerning officials in both Washington and Beijing, Campbell also said today. “I think it is fair to say that China is somewhat anxious about what's going on between Russia and North Korea,” he said. “They have indicated so in some of our interactions, and we can see some tension associated with those things … China is probably worried that North Korea will be somehow encouraged to take provocative steps that could lead to a crisis in Northeast Asia.” Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and North Korean leader KIM JONG UN signed a mutual defense pact last week during Putin’s state visit to Pyongyang, a development Campbell described as a “dramatic step-up in the relationship.” SANCTIONING UR MOM: The 70-year-old mother of Chechen warlord RAMZAN KADYROV was among more than 60 individuals and 47 companies aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine whom the Сouncil of the European Union included on its individual sanctions list today, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Read: Balkan tensions burst onto the pitch at Euro 2024 by our own UNA HAJDARI
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | — SARA SHAH is now deputy chief of staff of the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Department of Commerce. She rejoins the administration after two years at Stanford and previously served as special assistant to DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS. — MICHAEL ABRAMOWITZ was sworn in on Monday as director of Voice of America. He most recently was the president of Freedom House and is a Washington Post alum. — HANNAH STRUB MORROW is now director of government relations for defense programs at Saildrone. She previously was legislative director for Rep. JOHN RUTHERFORD (R-Fla.).
| | — AGATHE DEMARAIS, POLITICO: Export controls on Russia might be working better than you think — MICHAEL SCHUMAN, The Atlantic: China may be the Ukraine war’s big winner — JAMES MARSON, The Wall Street Journal: How Ukraine’s naval drones turned the tide in the battle of the Black Sea
| | — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 8 a.m.: 2024 TechNet cyber conference — Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 9 a.m.: Not Forgotten: Political imprisonment and incommunicado detention in Belarus — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Escalation in Haiti: Reaching women and girls impacted by humanitarian crisis. — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10:30 a.m.: India’s strategy in Myanmar. — Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: Are Armenia and Azerbaijan on the verge of peace?–– U.S. Institute of Peace, 2 p.m.: Korean War Legacies: Healing the trauma of Korean American family separation. — Atlantic Council, 4:30 p.m.: Launch event for its 2024 Freedom and Prosperity Indexes. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose editing always gets out of hand. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who does his best to negotiate peace between us.
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