| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Making a determination about Israel’s conduct during the war could have given international bodies targeting Israel more evidence and placed the Biden administration in a bind. | Pool photo by Julien de Rosa | With help from Daniel Lippman, Lee Hudson and Miles Herszenhorn Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric President JOE BIDEN reignited criticism this week when he said he’s “uncertain” whether Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza, but don’t expect that stance to change anytime soon. His comment reaffirmed the administration’s position that it doesn’t know if Israel has violated international humanitarian law in Gaza. Last month, the State Department punted on declaring whether Israel had done so. But the report did say it’s “reasonable to assess” that Israel used American-provided weapons in ways that are “inconsistent” with international law. The reason the State report was inconclusive was that the administration didn’t want to hem itself in down the line when it comes to making decisions on weapons, a U.S. official familiar with Middle East policy told NatSec Daily. If Israel was found to be in violation, the U.S. would've been expected to stop sending military assistance to Israel. Senior U.S. officials want the policy flexibility in case conditions in Gaza change, and they didn’t want to be held back by anything definitive in writing, said the official, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. A senior U.S. official pushed back: “This person has no idea what they are talking about. The reason why the report didn’t reach definitive conclusions is because the processes that were set up to reach those conclusions aren’t yet finished. It’s not any more complicated than that,” the official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told NatSec Daily. But BRIAN FINUCANE, a former State Department lawyer who worked on international and national security law, agreed with the first official’s analysis: The State Department came to its conclusion in the report “no doubt in part because the administration wanted to preserve policy flexibility,” he told NatSec Daily. Making a determination about Israel’s conduct during the war also could have given international bodies targeting Israel, such as the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, more evidence and placed the Biden administration in a bind. The White House has rebuked the request for arrest warrants against top Israeli officials and stayed relatively quiet during calls for Israel to stop its military operation in Rafah. The unclear analysis given in the report, as well as Biden’s dodgy comment, may be the norm going forward. “Specific adverse legal conclusions could constrain the administration's room to maneuver,” Finucane said. “I expect the administration will stick to such generalities — especially in public — rather than announcing specific adverse conclusions.” The accusations against Israel are numerous: An Israel airstrike seemingly led to the death of dozens of Palestinians in Rafah last week, an Israeli strike killed multiple World Central Kitchen workers and mass graves were found in the city of Khan Younis in April, and a pair of aid groups said Israel dropped a 1,000-pound bomb on a residential compound housing its workers in March, to name a few recent examples. Israel has either apologized for the incidents or denied wrongdoing. The goal of State’s report was to account for how countries receiving U.S. taxpayer-funded offensive weapons are using them, and State wasn’t explicitly required to make a policy change if it found Israel had violated law, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) explained. “Elevating political convenience over the truth diminishes American credibility and risks establishing a dangerously low bar for the permissible use of U.S. weapons,” Van Hollen told NatSec Daily. And if Biden isn’t sure whether Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza, advocates argue, the U.S. shouldn’t be providing the country with weapons.
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The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | INFLUENCE OPERATION CONFIRMED: Israel has spent millions of dollars since October on an influence campaign targeting U.S. lawmakers and the public with pro-Israel messaging, The New York Times’ SHEERA FRENKEL reports. The effort is aimed at cultivating support for its war efforts in Gaza, according to officials involved and documents related to the operation. Israel spent about $2 million on the effort and hired Stoic, a Tel Aviv-based marketing firm, to carry it out. At its peak, the operation — which is ongoing — generated hundreds of fake accounts on social media that posed as real American citizens. AI-generated posts from the accounts focused mostly on Black and Democratic lawmakers, urging lawmakers like Rep. HAKEEM JEFFRIES of New York and Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK of Georgia to keep funding Israel’s military. The campaign underscores how far Israel is willing to go to maintain support from its primary ally, as views of Israel’s operation domestically and on the international stage sour while the war drags on. ISRAEL EYES LEBANON OFFENSIVE: Top Israeli officials said Israel will soon decide whether it’ll go on the offensive against Hezbollah militants at the Lebanese border after a series of smaller skirmishes since October. “We are prepared for very intense action in the north,” Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said in a statement today, vowing to restore security “one way or another.” On Tuesday, HERZL HALEVI, the chief of staff of Israel’s military, said Israel is “approaching a decision point” and that troops have been trained “to move to an offensive.” U.S. attempts to mediate a truce between Israel and Hezbollah have failed. In another sign of rising tensions, a gunman was captured today after he fired shots at the U.S. embassy in Lebanon and injured a security guard, according to the Associated Press’ KAREEM CHEHAYEB and LUJAIN JO. The motive of the shooting, which occurred near the embassy in Beirut, was not immediately clear, but Lebanese media has released photos that purportedly show a bloodied attacker wearing a vest with the words “Islamic State” written in Arabic and the English initials “I” and “S.” SLOVENIA JOINS THE CLUB: Slovenia became the latest country to recognize Palestinian statehood, our own ŠEJLA AHMATOVIĆ reports. Ljubljana joins the governments of Spain, Ireland and Norway in recognizing a Palestinian state, adding pressure to Israel as international scrutiny mounts over its conduct during the war. SPOTLIGHTING SUDAN: U.S. efforts to bring Sudan’s civil war to an end have been hampered by the lack of international attention given to the issue over the past year, Special Envoy to Sudan TOM PERRIELLO said today. “The lack of international engagement has meant the tools we would normally use against both the armed factions and their suppliers have been rendered less effective than they would normally be when they are landing in an environment silently,” he said during a Center for American Progress event today. Speaking at the event, Sen. CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa, said that “we are defining the soul of our nation right now as Americans by how we are allowing, frankly, such nightmarish reality to go undiscussed.” IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33, @ebazaileimil and @mherszenhorn. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | | FORPOL FAUX PAS: Biden made restoring foreign policy a key part of his last campaign. But if that messaged served as an effective contrast with DONALD TRUMP’s “America First” isolationism, it has now become a liability for his 2024 campaign, our own ELENA SCHNEIDER, ELI STOKOLS and LISA KASHINSKY report. As put by one longtime Democratic strategist: “Foreign policy is a problem for Biden because it undermines the central tenet of his 2020 candidacy, when he said he would restore America abroad and return us to normalcy.” As Biden begins a month of high stakes international meetings with a trip to France this week, two bloody wars in Ukraine and Gaza have complicated the president’s job and, polls show, contributed to the shakiness of his political standing at home. “If this election is at all about foreign policy, Biden’s going to lose,” IAN BREMMER, the president of the Eurasia Group, a risk assessment firm in New York, told our colleagues. PUTIN SAYS PISH POSH: Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN said he doesn’t care who wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election and that he doesn’t expect U.S.-Russia relations to significantly change regardless of what happens in November, our own MILES HERSZENHORN writes in. Speaking to journalists today, Putin also denounced the guilty verdict against Trump in his New York hush money trial, saying that the American judicial system was used for political purposes and echoing claims previously made by Trump.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | NEWSBREAK’S HEADACHES: A Chinese-owned app that has become America’s most-downloaded news source is facing criticism for publishing misleading and often completely false stories with the help of AI, according to Reuters’ JAMES PEARSON. Reuters identified over forty instances since 2021 where the app has published erroneous stories, created articles under fictitious bylines or lifted content from its competitors. The company uses AI to aggregate content despite internal concerns about the practice’s legality, according to former company employees and consultants who spoke to Reuters. “When NewsBreak identifies any inaccurate content or any violation of our community standards, we take prompt action to remove that content,” the app said in a statement to Reuters. Just another reason NatSec Daily should be your primary news source…
| | MORE PILOTS PRETTY PLEASE: Kyiv is pushing its European and American allies to ramp up pilot training, warning that it may find itself without enough pilots to fly the donated jets, our own LARA SELIGMAN, ERIN BANCO and PAUL MCLEARY report. Thirty Ukrainian pilots are eligible to start training in the U.S., Kyiv says. Yet the Biden administration has told Ukraine it lacks the space in its Arizona-based program and can only accept 12 pilots. Courses in Denmark and Romania have encountered similar issues with the number of spots available. It’s the latest obstacle in the drawn-out effort to get F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, they write. The Biden administration refused to greenlight the transfer of the jets for over a year, despite repeated Ukrainian requests, and issues have popped up with getting pilots into training programs and getting aircraft over to Ukraine. Read: U.S. warns its dual citizens will be stuck in Ukraine amid mobilization drive by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA PIER COST: The Pentagon has a new cost estimate for the temporary pier constructed by the U.S. military to Gaza — $230 million instead of the initial projection of $320 million, our own LEE HUDSON writes in. The savings is from lower-than-expected prices for contracted trucks, drivers, commercial vessels and the U.K.’s contribution of a berthing vessel. STEPPING UP IN THE SAHEL: Russia will provide more military assistance to Burkina Faso, in the latest showing of Moscow’s increased closeness with countries in the Sahel,according to Reuters. In a visit to Burkina Faso’s capital, Ouagadougou, Russian Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV said Moscow will help the country improve its defensive capabilities and fight insurgent groups and will provide military aid and instructors to train the country’s armed forces. Russia has ramped up its security cooperation with many of Burkina Faso’s neighbors, including Mali and Niger, in the wake of a recent wave of military coups in the region.
| | | |   | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Republican senators are calling for an investigation into whether ICC chief prosecutor KARIM KHAN violated U.S. law by “materially supporting terrorism” by seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT. “The ICC's action against Israel … manifestly provides ‘material support’ to Hamas by attempting to isolate Israel politically and diplomatically through legal advocacy for Hamas,” Sens. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio), MIKE BRAUN (R-Ind.) and RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) wrote in a letter to Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND today
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The lawmakers say that Khan theoretically could have gathered evidence from Hamas — which the U.S. designates as a terrorist group — when he collected information from unspecified people in Gaza. Garland, they argue, should look into Khan’s contacts and whether Hamas helped facilitate his trips to the territory. Also today, Cotton and seven other Republicans introduced a companion to the House’s bill targeting the ICC passed on Tuesday. The Senate bill, first seen by NatSec Daily, would sanction the court if it attempts to investigate, arrest, detain or prosecute Americans or Israel. CONTENTIOUS APPOINTMENTS: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON named Reps. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) and RONNY JACKSON (R-Texas) to the House Intelligence Committee, which has oversight over the intelligence community and access to highly sensitive information, our own OLIVIA BEAVERS reports. Perry is a particularly contentious pick, as members of the panel have privately expressed heartburn over giving the Pennsylvanian that kind of power when he was part of a federal investigation that is examining efforts to subvert the 2020 election.
| | AL JAZEERA STAYS BANNED: An Israeli court approved a 35-day ban on broadcaster Al Jazeera as officials look to further restrict the Qatari-based news outlet’s operations, according to Reuters’ STEVEN SCHEER and ARI RABINOVITCH. A Tel Aviv court retroactively approved an Israeli police raid on a Jerusalem hotel room that the broadcaster was using as an office space, citing national security concerns. The judge added that he had received evidence linking Al-Jazeera to Hamas. He also greenlit a ban on the broadcaster’s activities through June 8. Israeli officials have already suggested they’ll try to extend the ban longer; communications minister SHLOMO KARHI said that his ministry is looking into extending the ban by 45 days once it elapses. Read: Moldova strips general of rank and medals over Russian spying allegations by our own GABRIEL GAVIN METEORIC WARNINGS: U.N. Secretary General ANTONIO GUTERRES warned today about the impacts of climate change and humanity’s role in altering the biosphere: “Like the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs, we’re having an outsized impact. In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs — we are the meteor. We are not only in danger — we are the danger,” he said, per The Guardian’s OLIVER MILMAN.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — PAUL TRIOLO has left the Center for Strategic and International Studies where he was a non-resident senior associate for the trustee chair in Chinese business and economics. He is a partner and senior vice president for China and technology policy lead at Dentons Global Advisors. –– KELLY MAGSAMEN, chief of staff to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, is stepping down at the end of June, our own LARA SELIGMAN scooped. Magsamen is one of the staffers that has faced scrutiny surrounding the Pentagon chief’s secret hospitalization in December for prostate cancer treatment complications. — Biden announced a slate of nominations today: JULIANNE SMITH, the current ambassador to NATO, for under secretary of State for political affairs (to take over for recently retired VICTORIA NULAND); MICHAEL HEATH for ambassador to Malawi; KIN MOY for ambassador to Vietnam; and JAMES STORY for ambassador to Mozambique. The latter three are career members of the senior foreign service. — HENRY HAGGARD has joined WestExec Advisors as a senior adviser. He spent 25 years at the State Department, most recently as a member of the Senior Foreign Service with the rank of counselor. He also recently was named a senior fellow at the Baker Institute center for energy studies at Rice University and a senior associate at CSDS, a think tank in Brussels. — LAURIE-ANN AGAMA was named assistant U.S. trade representative for economic affairs. She previously served as acting assistant U.S. trade representative for textiles. — OREST MAHLAY is now strategic communications manager for United Help Ukraine. He was previously an associate director for community engagement at Razom for Ukraine and worked on the impact campaign for the documentary “20 Days in Mariupol.” — National Counterterrorism Center Director CHRISTINE ABIZAID will step down in July, HUMINT's SASHA INGBER scooped. She will be replaced by BRETT HOLMGREN from the State Department’s bureau of intelligence and research.
| | — SIMONE LEDEEN, RealClear Defense: Take Havana Syndrome seriously — THOMAS MAHNKEN, Foreign Affairs: A three-theater defense strategy — KARIN ZEITVOGE, The Washington Diplomat: Somaliland’s ‘ambassador’ seeks to resolve a Horn of Africa dilemma
| | — Center for a New American Security, 9 a.m.: Virtual national security conference — Washington Post Live, 9 a.m.: The global cyberthreat landscape in 2024 — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The Missile Defense Agency and the 2025 budget — United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: The day after conflict: Women's meaningful participation in post-war Ukraine — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Strategic corruption, state capture, and sanctions enforcement in Europe," focusing on Ukraine and more effective international sanctions — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 3 p.m.: "Europe Goes to the Polls," focusing on elections to the European Parliament Thanks to our editor, Ben Fox, who we hope stops receiving assistance from POLITICO. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who provides us with everything we need.
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