A political wunderkind makes a comeback bid

Jul 17, 2024

By Christopher Cadelago, Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte

Former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs responded to a question during his appearance before the Sacramento Press Club in 2018.

Former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs at the Sacramento Press Club on July 10, 2018, in Sacramento, Calif. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

THE BUZZ: FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs is launching an attempt at a political comeback.

Today, Tubbs is rolling out his campaign for California lieutenant governor, jumping into the race for the No. 2 statewide office two years ahead of the 2026 election. He said he’s running on a host of progressive priorities: helping renters and young homebuyers, expanding safety-net programs and fighting climate change.

“I need to get back in the game because we need to get back to our better angels,” Tubbs told POLITICO’s Christopher Cadelago in an interview ahead of his launch.

Tubbs’ candidacy could also bring some youthful swagger to the 2026 campaign, and to a Democratic Party drowning in turmoil over the age of its leader. Tubbs said he’s a strong supporter of the Biden-Harris ticket (he’s long been an ally of Vice President Kamala Harris).

“It’s more important than ever for our party to rally around Joe Biden as our declared nominee,” Tubbs said, calling the Republican duo of former President Donald Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance the “MAGA on steroids ticket.”

Tubbs, 33, rose to national prominence in his 20s over his advocacy pioneering a universal basic income program in Stockton, which drew praise from Barack Obama and Oprah Winfrey. Tubbs lost his 2020 mayoral reelection campaign to Republican Kevin Lincoln, a major setback for the rising progressive star.

The former mayor has spent the last few years serving as. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s special adviser for economic mobility and opportunity and has continued to work on universal basic income as a nonprofit director and investor.

Now that Tubbs is in the throes of a comeback bid, he said he wants to use the lieutenant governor’s position — an independently-elected office in California — as a “bully platform” to advocate for causes like affordable housing and environmental protection. He wouldn’t be the first to use the office to drive change. Newsom used the post to champion ballot measures, including legalizing marijuana and regulating ammunition.

Tubbs faces two well-known challengers in the 2026 contest: state Treasurer Fiona Ma and state Sen. Steven Bradford, both political veterans in the capital city.

Asked directly about his competition, Tubbs asked, “who?” While his opponents have long careers in public office, Tubbs said he offers a different approach as someone “who hasn’t been in Sacramento for decades.”

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WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

The CNN-POLITICO Grill has quickly become a key gathering place for policymakers and thought-leaders attending the RNC in Milwaukee.

On Tuesday, POLITICO and Bayer convened two conversations: a discussion with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and an executive conversation with Bayer’s Jessica Christiansen, senior vice president and head of crop science and sustainability communications.

The conversations focused on the news of the day in Milwaukee, including deeper discussion centered on the critical challenges faced by the agriculture sector.

CATCH UP HERE

CAMPAIGN YEAR

Chairperson of the California Republican Party Jessica Millan Patterson speaks on the first day of the Republican National Convention. | Getty Images

A WORD FROM THE CHAIR — California GOP Chair Jessica Millan Patterson has been busy at the RNC, minding the largest state delegation and hosting events featuring Eric Trump and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. But she squeezed in some time for a brief chat with our Melanie Mason on the outlook from Milwaukee.

You’ve been to a lot of Republican conventions. How has this one felt?

As our delegates were arriving on Saturday, they were huddling around TVs in the lobby, watching what was unthinkable unfolding. And I think that it was really important that President Trump showed everyone that he was OK, and by extension, that America was OK. Certainly we mourn the loss of life, and we pray for those that are still injured.

[As] we went into the arena, I felt incredibly safe. We have been working on a plan for two and a half years for this — local law enforcement, federal law enforcement. I've been to every convention since ‘04. This has been the most secure convention, and that was happening before the [attempted Trump assassination].

How are California Republicans feeling about the pick of J.D. Vance for vice president?

There's a lot of enthusiasm there. He has some ties to California with his time in the tech and finance sector. And so we feel a little bit of ownership over him so we're excited about that. He really speaks to that next generation. I also think he has a really great way of connecting to people. What America needs more than ever is someone who is going to talk to all Americans.

In California, there’s been a lot of conversation about how President Biden’s shaky debate performance could have a cascading effect down ballot to key House races. Are you seeing any evidence of that in polling?

I think the best poll is an election. And what we saw in the primary [was] California Republicans in every single one of those [nine targeted] congressional districts … got above 50 percent. So that is a good indicator. Another great indicator for us: voter registration. Since October of last year California Republicans have picked up 160,000 new Republicans. Democrats have lost 106,000, decline-to-states have lost 115,000. And we have picked up in every single one of those congressional districts. So when you look at a seat like Congressman David Valadao – when we won that seat in 2022, the Democrat registration advantage was 17.5 [points]. It is now 15.5.

Republicans seem pretty energized about their prospects for the general election. What do you think needs to happen to make sure these good vibes in July bear out in November?

We can never take our foot off the gas. We are playing in districts with D+15 voter registration. We have to be with our foot on the gas, playing offense, all of the time. So none of that will change just because we have good vibes.

BORDERLINE — Immigration has been a major focal point at the RNC and in a new story, Melanie explains why: The politics of the volatile issue have palpably shifted in the GOP’s direction. While Donald Trump is the party’s most visible face of the rise of the border hawks, it’s equally telling that Republicans running in swing districts in California are just as eager to make immigration a centerpiece of their campaigns.

Melanie caught up with Matt Gunderson, who is running for a purple seat in the San Diego-area against Democratic Rep. Mike Levin. He said that “every single type” of voter has the border on their mind.

“I always tell people, do we need comprehensive immigration reform? Absolutely. But we cannot talk about remodeling our kitchen when our house is on fire,” he said before the California delegation’s breakfast in Milwaukee on Tuesday.

He stopped short of fully backing Trump’s promise for a mass deportation program — “I don’t know how you implement that” — but continued to emphasize a border clampdown before talk of bigger overhaul.

“I keep coming back to the fact that we have to secure our border, get it under control, and then we can begin to discuss on the edges out how we resolve this problem long term,” he said.

WANT THE SCOOP ON THE RNC? Follow POLITICO’s live blog coverage for latest news as Republican power players meet this week in Milwaukee.

HOMELESSNESS CRISIS

People sit inside a tent set on a sidewalk near City Hall downtown Los Angeles early morning Wednesday, June 26, 2024. | AP

GETTING WHAT YOU WISH FOR — Many Democratic mayors along the West Coast pleaded with the conservative Supreme Court to overturn lower court rulings that restricted their ability to clear homeless encampments. They got what they wanted — and then some.

In its Grants Pass v. Johnson ruling last month, the high court granted cities sweeping power to police homelessness, including by jailing people for sleeping in public. Now, mayors must decide how far they want to go. Dustin examined how a half-dozen mayors are approaching a crisis that has long plagued the region, including San Francisco’s London Breed, Los Angeles’ Karen Bass, San Diego’s Todd Gloria and Portland’s Ted Wheeler.

Read more in today’s story from POLITICO’s The Fifty.

FOR GOOD MEASURE

ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK? — Last month, the California Supreme Court killed the Taxpayer Protection Act, a high-profile ballot initiative that would have made it more difficult to raise taxes in the state. Now, it’s possible the justices will strike another measure from the November lineup.

Late last week, the court asked for briefs in the case on an expedited timeline, a request that suggests it is open to hearing the challenge to Proposition 34.

Opponents of the landlord-backed measure have argued it is unconstitutional because it targets the funding of one organization, the AIDS Healthcare Foundation — an apparent attempt to block the nonprofit from using its funding to advance its political agenda, including expanded rent-control.

On Friday, the California Apartment Association filed a brief in support of Prop 34 — and the court asked for a reply from AHF within two business days.

“It doesn’t happen often,” said Jerry Flanagan, the litigation director for Consumer Watchdog, a progressive non-profit that filed an amicus letter on behalf of AHF, about the quick timeline. “The justices are not going to push a quick turnaround if they’re not interested.” — Will McCarthy

CHALLENGING THE BAN — The Chino Valley Unified School District and several parents sued California on Tuesday over a new law preventing schools from forcing teachers to alert parents if their child is transgender or gay.

Chino Valley’s conservative-majority board passed the state’s first policy mandating such communications only to have it gutted in state court in response to a legal challenge from Attorney General Rob Bonta. The new lawsuit, carried by the Liberty Justice Center, adds to an existing challenge from the Thomas More Society — which asked a federal judge to block the new law as part of an existing lawsuit against the Escondido school district.

LGBTQ+ legislators brought forward Assembly Bill 1955 after at least seven districts passed policies similar to Chino Valley’s — arguing it should be up to transgender students to decide when to come out to their parents. Newsom signed the bill on Monday, infuriating conservative activists and the legal foundations at the root of the challenges. Newsom, Bonta and state Superintendent Tony Thurmond are named as defendants in the suit.

Newsom spokesperson Izzy Gardon said the new law “preserves the child-parent relationship” and “we’re confident the state will swiftly prevail in this case.”

“This is a deeply unserious lawsuit, seemingly designed to stoke the dumpster fire formerly known as Twitter rather than surface legitimate legal claims,” Gardon said in a statement. “California law ensures minors can’t legally change their name or gender without parental consent, and parents continue to have guaranteed and full access to their student’s educational records consistent with federal law.” — Blake Jones

ON THE AGENDA

FACULTY FREEDOMS — A committee of the University of California Regents is slated to consider a proposal to limit academic departments’ ability to post opinion statements on their websites — a response to faculty groups writing pro-Palestinian messages on their homepages.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

SURVEY SAYS — Newsom’s campaign to blame California’s higher-than-national gas prices on price gouging by oil refiners is paying off. A new poll shows that nearly a third of registered voters identify market manipulation as a top explanation for the price differential, second only to California’s gas tax. Read more about how Californians are reading the price at the pump in last night’s California Climate.

Top Talkers

— Old beef dies hard, especially when it costs you the speakership. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy slammed Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz in a live interview with CNN yesterday. POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers and Kierra Frazier report McCarthy referenced a now-closed federal investigation into allegations that Gaetz had sexual relations with an underage girl. Gaetz interrupted McCarthy from the background with an insult of his own, saying, “You would get booed off the stage.”

— McCarthy’s not the only former speaker from California making headlines. Rep. Nancy Pelosi is becoming the go-to ear for Democrats worried Biden is jeopardizing competitive House races, POLITICO’s Sarah Farris reports, another signal the former speaker is throwing her political weight into behind-the-scenes deliberations about Biden’s political future.

— Fellow California Rep. Jared Huffman, meanwhile, is circulating a draft letter calling on Democrats to delay Biden’s nomination as the party’s presidential candidate. POLITICO’s Ferris, Elena Schneider and Jennifer Haberkorn report dozens of House Democrats are involved in the plan.

AROUND THE STATE

— Salesforce continued downsizing in July by cutting approximately 300 jobs. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— San Diego’ County supervisors rejected a proposal to explore potential litigation against social media companies for their platforms’ effects on youth well-being — for now. (San Diego Union-Tribune)

— What Biden’s proposed 5 percent nationwide rent cap would mean for the Bay Area. (East Bay Times)

PLAYBOOKERS

PEOPLE MOVES — Sasha Feldstein has joined the California Budget & Policy Center as its new strategy and impact director. Feldstein previously worked for the California Immigrant Policy Center, where she most recently served as the director of economic policy.

— The governor on Tuesday appointed Mary Lynne Vellinga, chief of staff to Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg, as the deputy secretary of communications at the Labor and Workforce Development Agency. Vellinga was previously Steinberg’s director of communications and worked as a senior writer at the Sacramento Bee from 1991 to 2009 before serving as an editor there through 2018.

BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Tuesday): Steven Levine ... Alyse Berkley

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