| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  NATO officials were shocked and dismayed that Trump chose isolationist Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | With help from Alex Ward, Miles J. Herszenhorn, Erin Banco, Nahal Toosi and Connor O’Brien Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric European diplomats are publicly signaling that they don’t care who wins the U.S. election, even as President JOE BIDEN’s reelection bid appears to be in danger of collapsing and an emboldened DONALD TRUMP dominates the Republican National Convention. During a panel at the RNC this afternoon featuring several ambassadors from member nations, our own PAUL McLEARY asked: How do they plan for the future with the U.S., given the uncertainty surrounding who will be the next president? “I don't think it changes things, to be honest,” British Ambassador to the U.S. KAREN PIERCE said. “We will work just as well with whoever is the next president.” German Ambassador to the U.S. ANDREAS MICHAELIS agreed, citing his past work negotiating with the Trump administration on aspects of Iran’s nuclear program: “We are not without experience when it comes to this,” he said. “Certainly, there will be different priorities, most likely. There will be questions, but we'll take it on.” Forgive us if we don’t buy the diplomatic nonchalance. While high-level diplomats often try to steer clear of ruffling feathers publicly — Trump’s threats have startled the alliance. NATO officials have been scrambling to “Trump-proof” the military alliance due to the former president’s repeated criticisms of the bloc and threats to pull out entirely. And they were shocked and dismayed that Trump chose isolationist Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) as his running mate. Europeans are also privately concerned about Biden’s age, health and ability to win the election. But they still largely favor Biden over Trump, fearing that the latter would damage the NATO alliance and harm the war effort in Ukraine. As many abroad have started to see a Trump win as inevitable, the rhetoric has been getting even more… diplomatic. One example from the panel: Swedish Ambassador to the U.S. URBAN AHLIN dismissed Trump’s repeated threats that he wouldn’t adhere to Article 5 — which calls on all member’s to protect an ally if attacked — for countries that don’t hit NATO defense-spending targets “I'm totally confident” any American administration would protect Stockholm if attacked, he said. Ahlin’s also not worried about isolationist tendencies appearing in the Republican party, underscored by Trump picking Vance — who has said he doesn’t “really care” what happens to Ukraine during the war. Ahlin’s argument: Republicans want U.S. citizens to respect laws in America, so they should want Russia to respect international laws, too. And at the Aspen Security Forum today, JONATAN VSEVIOV, secretary general of Estonia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said he will be able to work with whatever administration assumes office in November. “My job is to help define what's best for Estonia and for Europe. And in our opinion, the transatlantic relationship remains vital,” Vseviov said. “We need to not just preserve it, but to do everything we can do to strengthen it.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Unrivaled National Asset – Protecting and Powering Economic Growth
The F-35 is the most significant defense program in the U.S., powering small and large businesses and creating high-paying, high-tech and manufacturing jobs for workers in the innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– TOP NSC SPOX TO JOIN DNC: ADRIENNE WATSON, the National Security Council’s top spokesperson, will leave the White House to join the Democratic National Committee on contract to assist with President JOE BIDEN’s reelection, our own ALEX WARD has learned. Watson, who joined the NSC from the DNC in 2022, will help the political organization on contract as a senior adviser. People close to her said she wanted to help the Biden campaign as it takes on DONALD TRUMP. She is likely to leave her current post by the end of July. Watson formed a close partnership with NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY while she ran the shop and crafted the media strategy around the U.S. handling of the war in Ukraine and, later, Israel’s retaliation against Hamas in Gaza. She has also been a fierce protector of national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, defending his leadership of the NSC and advise to Biden. It’s unclear who will take over Watson’s position as the Biden administration’s third NSC press chief. EMILY HORNE, the first person in the job, left after having to deal with the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the coronavirus pandemic. BEN-GVIR’S WRENCH IN THE PLAN: Far-right Israeli National Security Minister ITAMAR BEN-GVIR visited the most sensitive holy site in Jerusalem today, causing concern that the trip could disrupt cease-fire talks in Gaza, The Associated Press’ MELANIE LIDMAN reports. Ben-Gvir said he went to the contested Al-Aqsa Mosque to pray for the return of the hostages “but without a reckless deal, without surrendering.” The move by the minister, an ultranationalist settler leader, could anger Hamas leaders who are deep in negotiations with the Israelis to bring the war to an end and release the hostages. Fighting is still raging today, as Israeli forces bombarded refugee camps in the territory and struck Gaza City, killing at least 21 people, Reuters reports, citing local health officials. “We would continue to urge our Israeli counterparts to do is nothing that inflames passion, or could lead to or encourage violent activity,” National Security Council spokesperson Kirby told reporters in a call today. BIBI PENNED IN: Biden still plans on meeting with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU when the Israeli leader visits Washington to address Congress next week, despite the president coming down with Covid, Kirby also told reporters. “We have every expectation that the two leaders will have a chance to see each other while Prime Minister Netanyahu is in town,” he said, but wouldn’t provide further details on the planned meeting. OUR EYES AT ASPEN: It’s the third day of the Aspen summit, and our own ERIN BANCO and NAHAL TOOSI have the scoop for all of us who don’t get to breathe in the crisp mountain air: PARTY!!! Attendees of the conference were out late last night in downtown Aspen, drinking and schmoozing. There were two go-to shin-digs last night, including one at the Ritz which supplied scrumptious crab cakes. Another one, across town, hosted a book talk for DMITRI ALPEROVITCH and GARRETT GRAFF who co-wrote “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century.” MARC RAIMONDI of Silverado Policy Accelerator hosted. CHIT-CHAT: During the parties, and before the DNC announced that it would move forward with a virtual roll-call, attendees of the forum privately told POLITICO that they were increasingly resigned to the idea that Biden would not leave the ticket and that the Democrats would likely lose. That changed slightly Thursday morning after Axios reported that top Democrats were confident Biden would leave the ticket. It spurred conversations at the forum about whether the report was true and if Biden’s decision was imminent. Some were hopeful. Others, more skeptical. “Who really knows what’s going on over there? This could all change in an hour.” Another Republican attendee was unsure what the Democrats would do if Biden were to leave. “Who are they going to put on the ticket? Kamala? I don’t think she’s all that unifying,” the Republican attendee said. “It isn’t that far away from the election. How is someone going to step in now and campaign?” BIDEN’S BUDDY: Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Md.), Biden’s top Democratic ally on Capitol Hill, is here at the forum trying to focus on policy conversations — anything from countries in the southern hemisphere to the situation in Gaza. But the political story back home has taken hold of people’s attention today, and Coons is the one man here who is likely to be able to provide some insight into the inner workings of Biden’s mind at this moment in time. He was a favorite target of reporters seeking clarity on Biden’s plans, and he was ready with a smile for most. But Coons was careful to keep his comments limited, saying, essentially, that the president deserved time and space to think things through. A day earlier, as news broke that Biden had Covid, Coons told Nahal that there should be a German word for the wave of challenges suddenly facing Biden. A few people in Aspen noticed that quote and discussed what, exactly, that German word should be. We are open to suggestions. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | The CNN-POLITICO Grill has quickly become a key gathering place for policymakers and thought-leaders attending the RNC in Milwaukee.
On Tuesday, POLITICO and Bayer convened two conversations: a discussion with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and an executive conversation with Bayer’s Jessica Christiansen, senior vice president and head of crop science and sustainability communications.
The conversations focused on the news of the day in Milwaukee, including deeper discussion centered on the critical challenges faced by the agriculture sector.
CATCH UP HERE | | | | | | | | | TWO MASHED PEAS IN A POD: One is the London-born son of Guyanese migrants who fought against Brexit, who once picked the hard-left socialist Jeremy Corbyn for Labour leader. The other is a gun-loving “hillbilly” from rural Ohio who says Britain under Labour is an “islamist” state. But DAVID LAMMY, the new foreign secretary in Britain’s center-left government, insists he and Vance are two of a kind, our own ANDREW McDONALD reports: “I’ve met him on a few occasions and we have been able to find common ground and get on,” Lammy said today. Pressed on Vance’s negative comments about the war in Ukraine, Lammy told BBC News that this is “why I’ve been engaged with JD Vance now over many, many months.” “Yes he had strong things to say about European defenses, and he has had a point of view about Ukraine,” Lammy said. “There is a perspective of views in the Republican Party, no doubt about that. We will seek to influence as you would expect.” IRAN’S DENIAL: Tehran said it didn’t plot to assassinate Trump following U.S. reports of an unspecified Iranian plan to kill the former president. As the Washington Post’s NIHA MASIH reports, Iran’s foreign ministry on Wednesday said Tehran “strongly rejects any involvement in the recent armed attack on Trump or claims about Iran’s intention for such an action.”
| | CYBER CONTINUITY: U.S. cyber policy probably won’t look much different if Trump takes office again, our pals at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report after speaking with half dozen other D.C. cyber policy hands, including two former Trump administration officials. Speaking with MC, MICHAEL KLIPSTEIN, the former director of international cybersecurity policy for the NSC, said it was fair to interpret language in the RNC platform that commits the party to raising “the Security Standards for our Critical Systems and Networks” as consistent with the Biden administration’s current approach. Though Klipstein said he was not involved “in any way shape or form” with the RNC platform, he argued that the Trump White House was trending in that direction before it left office. Klipstein also said he would expect a potential Trump administration to herald some modest changes, like working harder to implement a Commerce Department rule forcing cloud computing companies to keep more detailed records on their customers.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | HELLFIRE FOR PRAGUE: The State Department notified Congress that it approved a $138.3 million weapons sale that will send 200 Hellfire missiles to the Czech Republic. State said in a statement that it sees the sale as “improving the security of a NATO Ally that is an important force for political stability and economic progress in Europe.” TAX THE… EVERYONE: Ukraine’s government today proposed its first tax hike since the Russian invasion began two years ago, aiming to raise billions for new weapons and military salaries, Reuters’ OLENA HARMASH reports. HERE FOR A TOUGH TIME, NOT A LONG TIME: The White House stressed today that the aid pier constructed off the coast of Gaza — which will be dismantled and brought home following numerous weather, security issues and trouble delivering the aid to civilians — was always meant to be temporary. Kirby started out today’s call with reporters by raising the pier, without being asked: “It gave us some breathing time and space to get Ashdod operational and to get other crossings opened up,” he said. “This is just a little bit of context today that I think too often gets forgotten.” Read: New Dutch government’s top NATO priority: Act normal by our own STUART LAU
| | RICHARDSON’S ENDORSEMENT: The top U.S. military official for the Western Hemisphere came out in support of a legislative packet designed to bolster Washington’s ties with Latin American nations. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Gen. LAURA RICHARDSON, the head of U.S. Southern Command praised the Americas Act, introduced earlier this year by Sens. BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) and MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) and Reps. MARÍA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) and ADRIANO ESPAILLAT (D-N.Y.), as a “very comprehensive” way to shepherd investment and capital to countries in the Western Hemisphere and compete with China and Russia. “I firmly believe that we need a Marshall Plan for the region,” she told U.S. News’ DAFNA LINZER, who was moderating the conversation. “Economic security and national security are going hand in hand here in this hemisphere, and we have got to work both of them together very, very quickly.” The Americas Act, which is working its way through Congress, would expand free trade deals with Latin American and Caribbean countries, promote U.S. public and private investment in the region and increase people-to-people outreach in the Western Hemisphere through exchange programs and the launch of a Radio Free Americas.
| | | |   | | | | | NYET TO TRUMP’S PLAN: Moscow isn’t buying Trump’s claims that he could end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Reuters’s DMITRY ANTONOV reports. Speaking with reporters today, Foreign Ministry spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA said: “It's necessary to separate pre-election rhetoric from statements by government officials vested with the appropriate powers. If we talk about whether it's possible to resolve the conflict, let's be realistic.” She also swiped at Trump for promising during his first term to bring peace to the Middle East, noting “they prepared for the ‘deal of the century’ for quite a long time, but it did not end in anything.” PENNY PUSHING IT: U.S. envoy for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery PENNY PRITZKER said today that Ukraine is making progress on the frontlines, but stopped short of saying that they’re winning the war. “They’re holding the line in Kharkiv. They’ve reopened the Black Sea. They push back on Russia’s attacks from Crimea,” Pritzekr said during an Aspen panel. “Now, I’m not a military person. Are they winning? That’s not my — but the point is that the resilience of the Ukrainian people is amazing.”
| | — The European Parliament re-elected URSULA VON DER LEYEN for a second term at the helm of the European Commission. Von der Leyen’s candidacy teetered for weeks after the bloc’s legislative elections in the face of tense negotiations with Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI for her right-wing bloc’s support. — Surprising nobody, Rwandan President PAUL KAGAME, who has led the Central African country since 2000, won re-election with 99 percent of the vote. Kagame’s tenure in office has been simultaneously celebrated for promoting economic development in the small Great Lakes country and criticized for human rights violations and authoritarian practices. — Vietnamese Communist Party chair NGUYEN PHU TRONG, who has led the Southeast Asian nation for 14 years, will step down amid health challenges. Trong is seen as having made Vietnam more open to the global economy and more flexible in Asian geopolitics, while cracking down on dissent and expanding the ruling party’s control.
| | — RAFAEL GROSSI, Foreign Affairs: Nuclear must be part of the solution — CHRISTOPHER McCALLION and BENJAMIN FRIEDMAN, POLITICO: NATO’s false promises are encouraging misplaced Ukrainian hopes — KEVIN SIEFF, The Washington Post: A double life: The cocaine kingpin who hid as a professional soccer player
| | — Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: The international aid architecture. — Center for a New American Security, 10:30 a.m.: Adapting NATO's nuclear posture to current threats. — The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: What Mexico’s new president means for U.S. economic and trade relations. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose ability to edit we worry about both publicly and privately. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we have the utmost confidence in.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Powering Economic Growth Needed to Outpace Global Competitors
The F-35 is built by more than 1,650 high-tech suppliers, more than half of which are small businesses based in the U.S., representing the backbone of the U.S. innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
