| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan |
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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → JUSTIN TRUDEAU will replace close friend SEAMUS O’REGAN on the front bench today. → A long, long, long night in Milwaukee. → What to watch as MÉLANIE JOLY meets WANG YI in Beijing. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
(MINI) SHUFFLE WATCH — The tiniest Cabinet shakeup fueled the briefest speculative flurry: Who will step into the labor portfolio to replace SEAMUS O’REGAN?
— It’s now incredibly anti-climactic: The answer is Gatineau MP STEVEN MACKINNON, reports DAVID COCHRANE of CBC News, citing confidential sources. MacKinnon has been filling KARINA GOULD’s shoes as government House leader while she was on a parental leave that ends July 31. So much for the quick-lived buzz about Calgary Skyview MP GEORGE CHAHAL, who just happened to be in town Thursday. JUSTIN TRUDEAU will tap a replacement today at Rideau Hall as his longtime friend O’Regan exits Cabinet. — Personal toll: Recently, O’Regan told Playbook about the toll the pandemic took on his family life, when his father SEAMUS O’REGAN Sr.passed away. — Verbatim: “I lost my dad. My mom was looking after my dad. Suddenly, I’m looking after both of them. Then my dad asked if I could look after my mom. We’re all strung out. It’s an emotional issue.” — Never a good time: “For my husband [STEVE DOUSSIS] and I, we just frankly — we're not seeing each other nearly enough,” O’Regan said in an interview with CTV News. “So, that was a decision that he and I made way back, actually much earlier this year. And then it never seems to be the right time — there's always something happening. There's a lot of news, there's a lot going on these days. But eventually, at some point, we had to make this decision and we felt that this was the right time.” — About that timing: There’s a potential national rail strike looming in the background, depending on what the labor board decides. The folksy, smooth-talking former TV broadcaster will remain MP for St. John's South-Mount Pearl until the next election, but the government will lose his front-bench starpower. “This is probably the Liberal government in my memory that has had the best relationship with organized labor, so it's obviously an important file for them going into the next election,” said GREG MACEACHERN of KAN Strategies. — Expectation setter:Media have reported a shuffle was in the cards ahead of the Cabinet retreat. But a senior Liberal source with knowledge of today’s move said it’s just a replacement operation. — Speculation station: That’s not to say there won’t be a bigger shuffle down the line. Today’s shakeup, however tiny, lands amid speculation over what will happen with Trudeau’s Cabinet after a year of the party dragging in the polls, and a month since the Liberals’ stunning Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election loss to Conservative DON STEWART. — Cabinet meets … per usual?: There’s lots of attention on today’s brief Cabinet huddle — the first since the by-election. But there’s little to suggest the virtual meeting will be anything more than routine, with governor-in-council appointments on the agenda. — Carney watch: The real buzz is around MARK CARNEY. That, despite him not saying much of anything lately — certainly not about his political aspirations. One rumor bounced around that he was poised to make an appearance in Cabinet. That has been thoroughly shot down. Still, it doesn’t mean he won’t pop up down the line as the Liberals search for ways to right the ship. — Fueling the buzz: Carney met with Trudeau Sunday, per Globe reporters BOB FIFE and MARIEKE WALSH — not long after the PM talked him up during a NATO summit presser, mentioning his attempts to woo the banker and economist into the Liberal fold. Carney would be an “outstanding addition at a time when Canadians need good people to step up in politics,” Trudeau said last week. — What’s next: Trudeau’s summer break is around the corner. Canadian politics is poised to enter the throes of slow season at the same time it is eclipsed by the U.S. election. There are 37 days until the August Cabinet retreat. | | | 2024 WATCH | | |  Donald Trump and Melania Trump at the close of the Republican National Convention. | AP | BODY POLITIC — Former pro wrestler HULK HOGANripped off his shirt and sang DONALD TRUMP’s praises and UFC President DANA WHITE introduced the former president at the RNC. Kid Rock lip synched — badly. And then things got weird. — New look: When Trump started speaking, he struck a solemn and almost oddly serene tone. He used his first speech since the failed attempt on his life to directly address the shooting. Trump said he felt protected because he “had god on my side.” “I’m not supposed to be here tonight,” he said, while the Trumpsters, Trumpamaniacs, and Trumpites in the crowd, as they were variously called last night, roared back with the chant, “Yes, you are!” — The more things change: Trump made a plea for national unity, a theme in his speech widely telegraphed in advance, and used that to call for an end to the criminal investigations against him. In a dramatic pivot, Trump then switched back to his usual tone, rambling and riffing for the rest of the speech on all his greatest-hits talking points in the longest televised acceptance speech ever, lasting some 90 minutes. Related: — On POLITICO via JEFF GREENFIELD: Trump derailed his own convention speech. — Pulitzer Prize-winning photographer DAVID HUME KENNERLY shared photos from a MAGA convention. — CHARLES HOMANS is on “The Daily” pod with a report on the ways Trump’s message has changed — “darker, angrier and more focused on those out to get him than it ever was before.” — AARON WHERRY writes for CBC News: We had good reasons to worry about our political culture even before the Trump shooting. CLOCK’S RUNNING DOWN — JOE BIDEN is meanwhile in isolation at his Delaware shore home following stern warnings from top Democratic Party brass that they’ve lost faith in his bid. Among the names, Chuck Schumer was “pretty harsh” when he spoke with Biden, according to one senior Hill Democrat briefed on the discussion. POLITICO’s ADAM CANCRYN, JONATHAN LEMIRE and ELI STOKOLS have details in their story: “Biden in crisis.” WSJ reports some top Dems, including Schumer, are already preparing to go ahead without Biden anyway. NYT reports Biden is beginning to accept that he may have to drop out, while Axios cites sources saying it could happen this weekend. Among the names privately fretting about Biden: former president BARACK OBAMA,writes WaPo’s TYLER PAGER and MICHAEL SCHERER. And it’s a vibe at the Aspen Security Forum among officials, diplomats and lawmakers. Allies of KAMALA HARRIS are meanwhile rallying to ensure she makes top of the ticket if Biden steps aside. Trump world is working on a pivot if that happens, too.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be at Rideau Hall at 9 a.m. for the swearing-in of a new Cabinet minister. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto where at 11:30 a.m. she will meet with leaders and representatives from the auto and auto parts manufacturing sectors. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released public itineraries. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Edmonton with local candidate TRISHA ESTABROOKS and a media avail on lowering rent. They attend an IBEW Local 424 annual retiree BBQ later on. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY has no public events scheduled today. | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
UP: Gen. JENNIE CARIGNAN, the first woman to serve as chief of the defense staff in Canada.
DOWN: Cabinet, losing one of its strongest communicators.
| | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | | 
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last October in Beijing. | Getty Images | THE BIG MEETING — Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is headed for a tête-à-tête with her counterpart WANG YI in Beijing today, the first time a Canadian foreign minister has visited China in almost seven years. The move could signal dethawing bilateral relations. Or not. That relationship has been at a low since 2018, when the arrests of MICHAEL KOVRIG and MICHAEL SPAVOR sent relations spiraling. Playbook spoke with VINA NADJIBULLA, VP of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, about what to watch for out of the surprise trip. What does the sudden news of her trip indicate to you? We knew there were efforts to try to re-establish this high-level dialogue. The timing was unexpected and comes in the midst of a trip to South Korea, Japan, and then to Laos, where the minister will be participating in summit meetings. The meetings are still to come. It's important she's there, but a lot will depend on what actually gets discussed, what gets put out from those meetings and importantly, what happens later. Will there be other such trips? And then it will be most interesting to watch in the context of Canada's actions on EVs and the reaction from China. What do you think is likely to take place in an initial meeting like this? Expectations are low for any concrete deliverables, given that this really is the first visit in about six years post-COVID, post the crisis with MENG WANZHOU and the “two Michaels.” It will be important to see if the readout, particularly from China, indicates there were some serious, substantive discussions on issues Canada cares about: foreign interference in our democratic process, addressing fentanyl flows — a crisis both in Canada and in the U.S. — and dealing with trade issues.The public relations dimension of this trip is also important. We need to make sure it doesn't get presented somehow as Canada changing course, or correcting its “cognition”as China had put it a while ago from a different meeting. What do you think about this trip happening as Canada is going through this major foreign interference inquiry, and China's being named as a main suspect throughout? That is in the background of this, as well as the NATO summit that just took place in Washington, which used very strong language about China being a systemic challenger to the Western alliance, as well as a decisive enabler — that was the direct language from the declaration — of more of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine. All of this is important background and context, to understand this trip does not represent some kind of a reset. We have to meet, and we have to engage in dialogue, and obviously Minister Joly, that’s her job as a top diplomat to engage in these kinds of discussions, but we have to be clear eyed this does not change the overall direction of the relationship.
| | | MEDIA ROOM | | |
— Top of CBC News this hour: Cyber outage disrupts global services, crashes Windows PCs.
— On Global News: Who is MARK CARNEY, and why is JUSTIN TRUDEAU courting him? — From our colleagues in Europe: In fear of war and Trump, Europe takes no chances. — POLITICO’s VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT reports from Paris where EMMANUEL MACRON’s party formed a last–minute agreement with right-leaning lawmakers to win a key vote in parliament on Thursday.
— New Chief of Defence Staff JENNIE CARIGNAN says Canada has five years to prep for new threats from China and Russia, writes STEVEN CHASE.
— Liberal MP ANDY FILLMORE is running to be the next mayor of Halifax, though he has yet to resign his seat in the House. HALEY RYAN of CBC News reports: “He continues to take a federal salary and work out of his riding office while also campaigning for mayor.”
— “Cars floating on the Don Valley Parkway … buckets catching leaks outside Mayor OLIVIA CHOW’s office.” Toronto Life shares a photo essay of this week’s summer floods in Toronto.
| | PROZONE | |
Catch the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers from ZI-ANN LUM: A Trudeau Cabinet minister bows out.
In other news for Pro readers: — Joly heads to Beijing as China-Canada relations hit new milestone. — Inside the Project 2025 plan to gut climate regs. — Startup dumps sand in Atlantic to catch carbon. — Germany isolated as EU countries tilt toward duties on Chinese EVs. — Trade policy downgraded in von der Leyen’s second-term agenda. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to former Sen. GRANT MITCHELL.
Celebrating Saturday: Sen. MICHÈLE AUDETTE, Orléans MPP STEPHEN BLAIS and KATIE HEELIS of EnterpriseHealth. Celebrating Sunday: B.C. Premier DAVID EBY, former MP LARRY MILLER and JONATHAN PERRON-CLOW of Resident Doctors of Canada. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: At a GlobalWIN RNC brunch at Bacchus in Milwaukee this week: Canadian Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN. Outgoing Chief of the Defence Staff WAYNE EYRE squeezing a Star Wars mention into his speech at the change-of-command ceremony, alongside a quotation by MARCUS AURELIUS and apparent references to FRANCIS FUKUYAMA and THUCYDIDES. Movers and shakers: MEG BLACK, former digital comms director to former Toronto Mayor JOHN TORY, is joining Earnscliffe. Former CBC star power ANTHONY GERMAIN is now senior counsel at m5 Public Affairs. Former Global journalist AHMAR KHAN is moving to OPSEU in a comms role. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . | | TRIVIA | |
Thursday’s answer: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU shuffled his Cabinet July 18, 2018. MARY NG, PABLO RODRIGUEZ, JONATHAN WILKINSON, FILOMENA TASSI and BILL BLAIR were sworn-in for the first time that day.
Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, NICOLAS PELLETIER, MARK RAMZY, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DENISE SIELE, NANCI WAUGH, SCOTT LOHNES, ALEX STEINHOUSE, RALPH TIELEMAN, JUSTIN MARGOLIS, JOHN MERRIMAN, PATRICK DION, KEVIN BOSCH, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER and MARCEL MARCOTTE. We’re late to say that EMMA MACKENZIE HILLIER and MALCOLM MCKAY also landed Wednesday’s question. Friday’s question: Who led the boycott of the Olympics that opened on July 19, 1980? Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
