BENEATH THE SURFACE — Months of build up, then weeks of silence. The Liberal government let itself get beat up in the press by its allies right up to the final day of this year’s NATO summit, before Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU announced Canada would meet its defense spending commitment by 2032. But while the PM bought some time with its allies and the government won praise for finally putting a date in the window, experts have their eyebrows raised about how Canada will actually hit the key spending figure. — Kick the can: ANESSA KIMBALL, a professor at Laval University who studies alliance defense spending, said the promise should be taken with a “grain of salt” since this problem will likely fall on another future government to solve. “When it comes to these kinds of large-end procurements, Canada is notoriously delayed. So, I would like to believe that we would get there, but I think we should be a little more realistic.” Carleton University’s STEPHEN SAIDEMAN, director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network, said Canada will “probably not” hit the target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense in eight years. “I think they'll make a good-faith effort, but I don't think the math is in their favor — unless we have a recession,” he said. “I'm skeptical. Procurement is really hard for any government and this government does not make decisions quickly.” — Lack of details: DAVID PERRY, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, was on “The Herle Burly”podcast this week, where he said the government set high expectations by pledging a date, but it still lacks a firm plan backed by committed funds. “The mechanics of how they went about all that were really kind of curious,” Perry told DAVID HERLE. “They finally came in and made that commitment, which is important, but there's still basically all the work to do to get to something credible and verifiable.” Defense Minister BILL BLAIR told Playbook after the summit that Canada’s allies know the capabilities Canada is in the market for, such as a dozen submarines, “inevitably take us beyond 2 percent.” “Obviously, I need to do it faster, but the reality is it takes that long to actually produce them and deliver them, and it also enables us the time within our own national fiscal framework to make sure the money is available to get the job done.” — Sinking feeling: But that’s going to be a drawn-out process and may take longer than that. “It's not like you're walking into a Walmart and there's a whole bunch of submarines just to put on your cart,” Saideman said. “We probably won't be able to buy most of the subs or maybe even any of the subs before 2032.” — A little rosy: Then there’s the question of how Canada would even staff that many, given its recruitment crisis and current troubles staffing the four Victoria-class subs the Navy already possesses. “I think it'd be more likely to be six than 12,” he added. — Questions on follow through: He’s not the only academic raising questions about the subs pledge. PAUL MITCHELL, professor of defense studies at Canadian Forces College,warns if Canada relies on the subs as a “get-out-of-jail-free card” and repeats past mistakes from how it’s handled its current fleet, the purchase could become a “gigantic white elephant for a navy already struggling with a personnel crisis and the need to modernize its entire fleet structure.” — MIA: STÉFANIE VON HLATKY, a defense researcher and professor at Queen’s University, said the opposition also needs to come up with a credible plan on the target, since an election is coming up in the next year. So far, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has treaded carefully on the file, saying he’s “inheriting a dumpster fire when it comes to the budget” and that Canadians are tired of “politicians just announcing that they're going to spend money without figuring out how they're going to pay for it.” “All of the factors have to be aligned,” Hlatky said. “The machinery of procurement has to be fixed. The political dynamics have to be there to put pressure on the government to implement this 2-percent pledge. And then that alliance pressure is not going to go away and is just going to intensify [given the] trends in the international security environment.” | 
