So you wanted some Harris polling?

Jul 18, 2024

By Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan and Ben Johansen

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One of the major questions Democrats have been asking themselves as they consider whether to pressure President JOE BIDEN to step aside has to do with Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, his almost-certain replacement atop the ticket.

The question, of course, is simple: Can she win?

According to CNN’s JEFF ZELENY, the president himself has been asking about that. And a new survey conducted this week by a Democratic polling firm and shared first with West Wing Playbook provides an answer.

The data from Public Policy Polling found that Harris — with the right running mate — likely can defeat the Republican ticket of former President DONALD TRUMP and Ohio Sen. JD VANCE in two of the three “Blue Wall” states the Biden campaign now sees as critical: Pennsylvania and Michigan.

And, just as critically, the research shows that Biden's prospects, as former Speaker NANCY PELOSI and many others have conveyed to him directly, are grim.

Public Policy Polling has long been a prolific firm in Democratic politics — it has only a 1.4-star rating out of 3 in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings — but given the intense debate around Biden’s embattled candidacy, it’s the existence of the polling that’s more important than its accuracy.

In a general election that also includes third-party candidates, Trump is leading Biden by one point in Michigan (45 percent to 44 percent) and four points in Pennsylvania (46 percent to 42 percent). Interestingly, Harris replacing Biden atop the ticket makes the Democrats’ chances worse in Michigan, with Trump leading her by five points (46 percent to 41 percent), and better in Pennsylvania, where she cuts Trump’s lead in half (45 percent to 43 percent percent).

But if Harris were to pick one of those state’s governors as her running mate, her chances would improve considerably.

In Michigan, Harris with Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER as her vice presidential nominee are dead even with Trump and Vance, tied at 46 percent according to the poll.

And in Pennsylvania, a hypothetical ticket with Harris running alongside Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO would run one point ahead of Trump and Vance.

The pollsters also tested various messages to see how they affected support for Harris. The most potent issue for the vice president, perhaps unsurprisingly, was abortion. When respondents were told Harris “will fight for women’s reproductive freedom and their right to make decisions about our own bodies, without the government telling us what to do,” more than half of the respondents said that it makes them more inclined to support her.

For weeks, Biden aides have responded to concerns from Democratic lawmakers and donors by pointing to polling showing the presidential race still within the margin of error. They have touted a superior organization and an opponent in Trump who remains controversial and unpopular — an argument some lawmakers have found unconvincing because Biden continues to lag behind Trump despite those factors.

Perhaps the clearest proof of Biden’s personal weakness is that, in both states, Democratic Senate candidates are running far ahead of him and holding leads outside the margin of error.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY leads Republican DAVE McCORMICK, 50 percent to 39 percent. And in Michigan, Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN leads former GOP Rep. MIKE ROGERS, 46 percent to 38 percent.

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The program featured Bayer’s Jessica Christiansen, senior vice president and head of crop science and sustainability communications, as well as a conversation with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill for discussions about agriculture, food policy and how these issues will impact the November election.

POTUS PUZZLER

Which future president, when he delivered the nominating speech for his party’s candidate at that year’s national convention, spoke at such great length that he received a sarcastic cheer when he finally said, “In closing ...?”

(Answer at bottom.)

The Oval

COVID IS THE LEAST OF HIS PROBLEMS: As Biden isolates in Rehoboth Beach, support for his reelection bid continued to flag on Thursday amid more calls from top Democrats (see below) for him to think long and hard about dropping out, our ADAM CANCRYN, JONATHAN LEMIRE and Eli report. A Biden aide cast doubt on any vibe shift, stating that the president is “more committed to staying in than ever.” But among lawmakers, donors and operatives hoping for another nominee, there was newfound optimism that three weeks of private and increasingly public pressure was finally starting to penetrate the Biden high command.

“It’s starting to feel like there’s no way out of this [for Biden],” one Democratic official said. Another senior Hill Democrat signaled that Biden skeptics aren’t likely to call off the dogs. “Everyone feels that if they push hard enough that he will eventually relent,” they said.

THE DEMOCRATIC COUNCIL HAS DECIDED: Less than 24 hours after reports emerged detailing how Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Nancy Pelosi quietly urged Biden to step aside last weekend, WaPo’s TYLER PAGER and MICHAEL SCHERER reported on Thursday that President BARACK OBAMA is telling people he, too, thinks Biden’s “path to victory has greatly diminished” and that it’s time for him to reconsider his reelection campaign.

A spokesperson for the former president declined to comment — which is to say, Obama world is not denying it. Although the Obama news did not appear to be part of any coordinated leaking by his camp, it’s clear these Democratic standard bearers are in agreement about Biden’s dimming electoral prospects and, three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, getting bolder about pressuring the president publicly.

VIBE SHIFT: Pelosi’s move, importantly, seemed to spur MSNBC Morning Joe co-host MIKA BRZEZINSKI to soften her heretofore resolute post-debate support for Biden’s candidacy.

"I trust Joe Biden's abilities. I also trust Nancy Pelosi's political acumen,” Brzezinksi said. “She does not get out there without in-for-mation to back it up. She doesn’t take risks. She knows her information and she knows her numbers.”

JAMIE RASKIN IS GOING TO THE BULLPEN: A day after Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) publicly called on Biden to quit, another prominent Democrat is following suit. Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) made his case in a four-page letter to the president, NYT’s REID J. EPSTEIN reports. After three pages of lavish praise, Raskin makes his point by comparing Biden to … former Red Sox pitcher PEDRO MARTÍNEZ. The metaphor Raskin unfurls is far more specific than just an ace who’s lost his fastball.

Martínez, as many readers will no doubt recall, was famously left in to pitch the eighth inning of Game Seven of the 2003 American League Championship Series despite being tired.

“Mr. Martínez allowed three runs, tying the game before the Yankees won with a walk-off home run in the 11th inning that denied the Red Sox a trip to the World Series, which they had not won in 85 years,” Epstein writes.

Raskin, who confirmed the veracity of the letter to the Times, closed with this: “Your situation is tricky because you are both our star pitcher and our manager. But in democracy, as you have shown us more than any prior president, you are not a manager acting all alone; you are the co-manager along with our great team and our great people. Caucus with the team, Mr. President. Hear them out. You will make the right decision.”

We would posit that Mike Donilon, not Biden, is actually former Sox manager GRADY LITTLE in this scenario, but we digress. (Actually this got us thinking about other parallels: Raskin is ENRIQUE WILSON. Trump is AARON BOONE. AARON RUPAR is JERRY REMY. JEFFREY KATZENBERG is JOHN HENRY. CURT SCHILLING is…CURT SCHILLING. Okay, we’re done.)

BIDEN WORLD’S CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD: Here’s a new illustration of Biden world’s panicky, defensive attempts to contain the Democratic revolt: retribution against a frontline lawmaker who called for the president to step aside. As our SARAH FERRIS, ALLY MUTNICK and ELENA SCHNEIDER report, Rep. HILLARY SCHOLTEN was booted last week from a coordinated effort between the Biden campaign and the Michigan state party to elect candidates up and down the ticket, according to four people with knowledge of the situation. We’re sure it was an honest mistake and had nothing to do with Scholten’s statement that Biden should pass the torch.

Officials reversed that decision on Thursday after being contacted by POLITICO.

Scholten is a first-term Democrat who flipped a traditionally Republican seat in 2022, the kind of front-line member whose race is critical to the party’s ability to win back the House majority in November.

COVID UPDATE: HE’S FINE: The president’s physician, KEVIN O’CONNOR, released a five-sentence letter on Thursday updating press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE on Biden’s condition. Biden, O’Connor wrote, is “still experiencing minor upper respiratory symptoms” from Covid and receiving Paxlovid. “He does not have a fever and his vital signs remain normal.”

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: The Biden administration on Thursday announced it will be canceling $1.2 billion in student debt for 35,000 public-sector workers, including nurses, teachers and firefighters, CNN’s KATIE LOBOSCO reports. The borrowers all qualify for the debt relief through the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, which was created nearly two decades ago and expanded by the administration’s efforts to make qualifying easier.

The announcement comes as the administration is fighting two legal challenges filed by several red states over its SAVE program — which offers generous repayment options for low-income Americans.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This newsletter.

CAMPAIGN HQ

WE FOUND CALIFORNIA DELEGATES’ GROUP CHATS: And discovered there’s a profound lack of confidence in Biden as a general election candidate among activists and party leaders in the nation’s largest state. Our CHRIS CADELAGO obtained a cache of messages exchanged in invite-only channels, including a Facebook group for convention delegates and a smaller Signal chain. Here’s a sampling of some of them:

“This is a painful experience on every level, but we play an outsized role in history this election. This cannot be left to chance,” wrote DNC delegate SUSAN BOLLE, who said she heard from more than 150 voters she represents asking her to call for Biden to step down.

“Kamala isn’t the strongest overall but logistically it’d be the cleanest,” wrote NICO BRANCOLINI, a vice president of the Stonewall Democratic Club, referring to who could replace Biden.

“If Trump gets reelected it’s 100% Biden’s fault,” wrote MELISSA GARCIA.

LESS MONEY, MORE PROBLEMS: Film producer Jeffrey Katzenberg warned Biden on Wednesday that his donors have all but stopped writing the kind of big checks a campaign typically relies on during the final stretch. Semafor’s LIZ HOFFMAN and BEN SMITH report that Katzenberg, one of the president’s closest counselors, delivered this message in a meeting with Biden in Las Vegas. It’s a clear indication that donors’ private concerns over Biden’s prospects these last few weeks have now reached the president’s ears.

After Semafor’s story was published, Katzenberg said in a statement that the report was a “misread of a private meeting” and that he and Biden “talked about everything from the convention to new ads.”

ON THE BRIGHT SIDE... ‘I’M SICK’ WORKED? Biden campaign spokesperson MIA EHRENBERG shared on X today that the president’s cheeky fundraising ploy — posting “I’m sick” after it was revealed he had Covid, then replying with “...of Elon Musk and his rich buddies trying to buy this election” — was the second-best raising social post in more than a year.

Big caveat: The Biden campaign didn’t share any numbers to back that up.

THE BUREAUCRATS

SAM CORNALE, PLEASE COME TO THE PRINCIPAL’S OFFICE: We know that in times like these, everyone needs a little pick-me-up, like a lot of likes on a clever tweet. But as you know from talking with reporters all day, agreeing on attribution language is very important! And we couldn’t help notice that there was no attribution in your post about the vegan BBQ stand outside the RNC site in Milwaukee. Which is weird, because you clearly lifted the photo straight from our guy Ben’s original post on it. Did you delete it out of guilt? Or just embarrassment?

A side by side of two posts on X

THE OL’ NSC TO DNC PIPELINE: ADRIENNE WATSON, the top spokesperson for the White House national security council, is headed to the Democratic National Committee on contract to assist with the Biden reelect, our pals at Nat Sec Daily scooped this afternoon. We assumed she’s departing because there’s so little to do at the NSC following the French elections, but people close to Watson — you know who you are — told our ALEXANDER WARD that Watson wanted to help the campaign as it enters the final stretch. Watson, incidentally, was at the DNC prior to coming on board at the NSC in 2022.

Agenda Setting

DON’T DO IT, IRAN: Axios’ BARAK RAVID scooped that the Biden administration expressed serious concerns to Iran last month over some of its research and development activities that could be used for producing nuclear weapons.

In recent months, both the U.S. and Israel have detected suspicious nuclear activities by Iranian scientists. But U.S. officials said Iranians responded to its June private message with an explanation, stressing there’s been no change in policy and they are not working on a nuclear weapon. Now everyone, breathe a collective sigh of relief.

DINERO PARA PUERTO RICO: The Energy Department is preparing a $861.3 million loan guarantee to support Puerto Rico’s construction of solar farms and battery storage systems, our KELSEY TAMBORRINO reports for Pro subscribers. That money could jump-start utility-scale renewable energy in a territory whose grid has been damaged by severe hurricane after severe hurricane.

What We're Reading

For Biden and Harris, a Delicate and Sometimes Awkward Dance (NYT’s Michael S. Schmidt, Katie Rogers and Zolan Kanno-Youngs)

J.D. Vance Left His Venmo Public. Here’s What It Shows (Wired’s Dhruv Mehrotra, Tim Marchman and Andrew Couts)

Democrats Are Drifting Toward Disaster (The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein)

Where's Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? (POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson)

Macron wins shock vote to keep coalition hopes alive (POLITICO Europe’s Victor Goury-Laffont)

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

BILL CLINTON was allotted 15 minutes to nominate MICHAEL DUKAKIS at the 1988 Democratic convention in Atlanta. But before he became Obama’s explainer-in-chief, the loquacious Arkansas governor was a little less focused. He ignored the prompter and spoke for more than a half-hour — the networks having long cut off their coverage of his remarks — before finally coming around to, “In closing.”

You can watch the whole thing here — but if you want to hear the crowd get really excited, fast-forward to “In closing” at the 34:05 mark.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Steve Shepard and Rishika Dugyala

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