| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Ukrainians say they need the West to provide additional weapons and ammunition more than they need accession into NATO, according to a European Council on Foreign Relations poll released today. | Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP | With help from Alex Ward, Miles J. Herszenhorn, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Programming note: We’ll be off this Thursday and Friday for July Fourth but will be back in your inboxes on Monday, July 8 — just in time for the NATO Summit. Dozens of foreign policy experts are calling on NATO members to avoid advancing toward Ukrainian membership at the alliance’s upcoming summit, warning that it would endanger the U.S. and allies and rupture the coalition. In a letter obtained by NatSec Daily, the group argues that if Ukraine is admitted, Russia attacking Ukraine in the future would trigger NATO’s Article 5, which calls on members to rush to a member’s defense if attacked. It’s a common assertion, but such a public stance from more than 60 analysts provides a sneak peek at the arguments likely to be levied at next week’s NATO Summit in Washington. “The closer NATO comes to promising that Ukraine will join the alliance once the war ends, the greater the incentive for Russia to keep fighting the war,” the letter reads. “The challenges Russia poses can be managed without bringing Ukraine into NATO.” Moving Ukraine toward membership could backfire, the letter continues, “turning Ukraine into the site of a prolonged showdown between the world’s two leading nuclear powers” and play into Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN’s narrative that it’s Moscow versus the West. Debates over what the U.S. and allies should guarantee Ukraine are shaping up. Last week, RAND Corporation researchers wrote that allies would benefit from offering Ukraine clarity about conditions for its future membership at the summit. The Atlantic Council has also been pushing for NATO membership for Ukraine. The Biden administration has refrained from supporting Kyiv’s immediate membership, but multiple top officials recently said a “bridge” into the alliance would be offered to Ukraine during the summit. Officials say NATO will also offer Ukraine a new headquarters to manage its military assistance — a gesture of good faith that the West will have the country’s back for the long term, even if it’s not afforded membership right now. Writing in Foreign Affairs today, outgoing NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG didn’t explicitly mention Ukraine membership, but alluded to Kyiv’s future alongside the alliance and concerns about the matter: “We want to make it clear that we are in this for the long haul … Stepping up our support does not make NATO a party to this conflict.” From what we’re hearing, Ukraine isn’t expecting much movement on its membership at the summit. Security guarantees are what they’re looking for, and there are already hopeful signs for Kyiv: NATO members agreed to Stoltenberg’s request that they keep military funding for the country at $43 billion in 2025, the same level of funding since Russia’s invasion, Reuters reports. On Tuesday, the U.S. announced a new $2.3 billion security package for Ukraine. Ukrainians say they need the West to provide additional weapons and ammunition more than they need accession into NATO, according to a European Council on Foreign Relations poll released today. Only 22 percent of Ukrainians are in favor of accepting NATO membership in exchange for giving up territory occupied by Russia, while 71 percent are against such a deal. Ukraine is still pursuing its maximalist objectives against Russia to recapture all of the territory it has lost in the war, ANDRIY YERMAK, President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s top adviser, told a small group of reporters Tuesday night. Ukraine was “not ready to compromise,” even as some U.S. and European allies quietly whispered to officials in Kyiv that talks with Russia should begin. Kyiv is only willing to negotiate based on its 10-point peace formula which, Yermak said, would lead to a “just peace” for his country.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | WEST BANK LAND GRAB: The Israeli government approved what activists are warning is the largest land seizure in the occupied West Bank in the past three decades, The Associated Press’ JULIA FRANKEL reports. Israeli authorities approved the appropriation of five square miles of land in the Jordan Valley, according to a copy of the order obtained by the AP. Peace Now, an advocacy group that also tracks the growth of settlements, says it’s the largest seizure of land in the West Bank since the 1993 Oslo Accords. The move comes as ultranationalist government ministers in Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s cabinet, namely Finance Minister BEZALEL SMOTRICH, have championed land seizures in the West Bank and laid out plans for settlement expansions. Palestinians in the West Bank protest the growth of Israeli settlements in the territory, seeing them as a main obstacle to a durable peace. PALESTINIANS FORCED OUT: Thousands of people have fled the cities of Khan Younis and Rafah in the Gaza Strip as Israel continues striking those areas, forcing Palestinian civilians to largely cluster in the territory’s central region, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and MOHAMMAD SALEM report. About 1.9 million people in Gaza, more than 80 percent of the population, have moved to the territory’s central region, according to the United Nations. One of the largest hospitals in all of Gaza — European Hospital in Khan Younis — is now “completely empty” because of the evacuation orders, World Health Organization officials said. The operations persist despite Israeli leaders saying that the intense phase of the war in Gaza will soon wind down as Israel eyes the threat from Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. U.S. special envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN will meet with French officials in Paris today to talk about how to diffuse tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, The New York Times’ MICHAEL CROWLEY reports, following another recent push Hochstein made that didn’t seem to bear much fruit. “We are striking Hezbollah very hard every day and we will also reach a state of full readiness to take any action required in Lebanon,” Israeli Defence Minister YOAV GALLANT said in a statement today. “We prefer an arrangement, but if reality forces us we will know how to fight.” HAITI MILITARY HOUSING: The State Department refuted reporting that a U.S.-built military base in Haiti can only house 450 forces at a time as Kenyan police arrive to battle gangs wreaking havoc in the country’s capital. Last week, The Miami Herald reported the limitations of the base, which is intended to eventually support some 2,500 forces from multiple countries. That raised the question of how many foreign troops would be on the ground at one time, though the U.S. has denied the report. “I'm not sure where this report about the capacity … comes from, but that's not correct,” Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs BRIAN NICHOLS told reporters on a call today. “Its capacity is substantially larger and growing, and it can already accommodate far more people than that.” The base will eventually be able to hold up to 1,000 forces, Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs TODD ROBINSON told reporters: “We'll assess what the needs are when we've reached that capacity,” he added. BIBI’S BIDEN TIME: President JOE BIDEN will meet with Netanyahu, CNN's MJ LEE reported Tuesday night. The meeting, which is still being ironed out by Israeli and American officials, will happen around the time when the Israeli leader will address a controversial joint session of Congress during his July visit to Washington. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Bringing every domain closer, no matter the distance.
Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | SPILL THE BEANS, DON: If DONALD TRUMP knows how to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, he shouldn't wait until after November's election to spill the details, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said today, per our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA. “He should tell us today,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Because if there are risks to Ukraine's independence, if there are risks that we lose statehood, we want to be prepared for this.” While the presumptive Republican nominee hasn’t publicly divulged his supposed plans for Ukraine, he has repeatedly said that ending the war would be one of his first tasks if he became president. A BUDAPEST BASHING: Washington’s top diplomat in Budapest slammed Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN for his outspoken support of former President DONALD TRUMP, our own SEB STARCEVIC reports. At a Tuesday reception celebrating July Fourth, U.S. Ambassador to Hungary DAVID PRESSMAN said we “have no other ally or partner — not a single one — that similarly, overtly and tirelessly, campaigns for a specific candidate in an election in the United States of America, seemingly convinced that, no matter what, it only helps Hungary, or at least helps him personally.” The sharp comments from Pressman, who has previously sparred with the Hungarian government over its closeness with Russia and allegations of increased authoritarianism in the NATO member-state, come as Orbán has increasingly hitched his wagon to Trump ahead of the November election. Read: Gaza is still the hottest election issue in these parts of Britain by our own SAM BLEWETT
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | NATO’S CHINA TECH WOES: The Biden administration is telegraphing that it will up the ante with NATO member states on the need to abandon Chinese tech amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. State Department cyber czar NATE FICK told our own MAGGIE MILLER that he wants to see allies ditch Chinese technology that could compromise collective national security. He also wants the alliance to do more to support Ukraine from a cyber perspective. “It is increasingly untenable for a NATO member country to be both strong in the support of Ukraine and tolerant of Chinese digital infrastructure,” Fick said. Fick’s comments come as allies navigate additional hurdles to cyber integration and growing cyber threats from Russia, China and other adversaries. Officials at next week’s NATO summit are expected to discuss emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, along with Chinese intrusions into member states’ critical infrastructure.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SPOTTED AT DCA: Drone-builder General Atomics Aeronautical Systems has launched a summer ad campaign highlighting the Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft loyal wingman program, our own LEE HUDSON writes in. The ad blitz is to “educate the public” on why it matters, said company spokesperson C. MARK BRINKLEY. It includes DCA airport, ads in The Washington Post, radio, digital and social media. The Air Force in April tapped Anduril Industries and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems to develop detailed designs, manufacture and test production representative drones. Defense primes Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman lost the contract but will remain in a vendor pool of more than 20 companies for future efforts. The companies can still compete for the production contract in fiscal 2026. EXPLODING DRONE BOATS: Houthi militants are now attacking merchant ships by sending drone boats loaded with explosives into the Red Sea — a shift in strategy for the group as they step up attacks on the trade route, Reuters’ JONATHAN SAUL and RENEE MALTEZOU report. At least three ships in recent weeks have been attacked by the exploding boats, which represent “a sophisticated shift in asymmetric warfare tactics, enabling the Houthis to strike with precision and at a distance,” DIMITRIS MANIATIS, CEO of Maritime Risk Managers MARISKS, told the outlet.
| | | |   | | | | | BALANCING THE BUDGET: The Pentagon is asking Congress to greenlight a request to shift some $3 billion within the budget for the military’s withdrawal from Niger, deployments on the southern border, support to Haiti and a range of weapons programs, our own JOE GOULD reports (for Pros!). Pentagon Comptroller MIKE McCORD told lead lawmakers, in the June 28 request, that the military is looking to reprogram more than $1.1 billion from Air Force accounts, $900 million from Army accounts and nearly $500 million from Navy accounts, with the rest coming from across the Defense Department. “This reprogramming action provides funding in support of higher priority items, based on unforeseen military requirements, than those for which originally appropriated,” McCord wrote. OMAR BASHES SOMALIA COMPLAINT: Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) is pushing back against a “far-right” complaint from a conservative group that praise she received from Somalia’s former prime minister at a community event may have violated federal campaign laws. “This ethics complaint is another attempt by the far-right to smear the congresswoman,” said DAVID MITRANI, Omar’s campaign counsel, in a statement to NatSec Daily. “Congresswoman Omar's campaign had absolutely no involvement in requesting, coordinating or facilitating Mr Khaire’s appearance or his comments, and accordingly there was no violation of law.” According to The New York Post’s RYAN KING, the American Accountability Foundation is claiming that former Somali Prime Minister HASSAN ALI KHAIRE “rallied” to get out the vote for the Somali-born member of Congress during her primary in his statements at an event both attended in commemoration of Somali independence. The group argues Khaire’s expressions of support for the Minnesota Democrat at the event went beyond the scope of “the limited volunteer services permitted by a foreign national and involved impermissible decision-making.” The Office of Congressional Ethics did not respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.
| | DON’T ROCK THE BOAT: China warned Taiwan’s Coast Guard not to interfere in the detention of the crew of a Taiwanese fishing boat, The Associated Press’ CHRISTOPHER BODEEN reports. Chinese authorities seized the Dajinman 88, a fishing vessel, and towed it to a port in the mainland Fujian province Tuesday night. Three Taiwanese vessels were dispatched to intervene, but Chinese boats blocked them from approaching the Dajinman 88 and warned them not to proceed. Taiwan maintains that the fishing boat was not near Chinese territorial waters and was operating in the vicinity of the Taiwanese-controlled island of Kinmen. Cross-strait tensions continue to worsen between China and the self-governing island following the inauguration of Taiwanese President LAI CHING-TE, as Beijing refuses to communicate directly with Taipei. China has also increasingly threatened to bring Taiwan forcefully back under its control. ICYMI — CIA mishandled sexual assault, harassment within its ranks, internal review finds by our own DANIEL LIPPMAN
| | — ANTHONY RENZULLI is now an associate partner with Albright Stonebridge Group’s South Asia practice. He previously was director for India at the National Security Council.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Clear insight means stronger foresight.
When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | — SERGEY RADCHENKO, The New York Times: Why America’s adversaries are wrong about the Biden-Trump debate — BENJAMIN ALLISON, Foreign Policy: Who’s in charge of the IDF? — KELSEY GRIFFIN, ERICA ORDEN and LARA SELIGMAN, POLITICO: The terrifying SEAL Team 6 scenario lurking in the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling
| | — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Revisiting the legacy of Shinzo Abe. — Foreign Policy, 9 a.m.: NATO in a New Era: Reassessing transatlantic security. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Pivotal State: Is a deeper alliance with Saudi Arabia worth it? — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Maritime Security and Next-Generation Technologies: A platform for cooperation between NATO and its Asia-Pacific partners. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Is It Me or the Economic System? Changing Chinese attitudes toward inequality. — The Heritage Foundation, 10:15 a.m.: Holding China accountable for its role in the most catastrophic pandemic of our time: COVID-19. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11:30 a.m.: New frontiers in UFLPA (Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act) enforcement. — Foreign Policy, 1 p.m.: Strengthening alliances amid evolving threats. — The Hudson Institute, 2:15 p.m.: Speech from House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON about “Threats to the U.S.-led world order.” Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who won’t be allowed to join the Matt-Eric-Miles alliance. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the best partner on the international stage. And we wish a very happy birthday to our editor Heidi Vogt, who we won’t make fun of today! | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
