| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE TRUMP CASES — “How to Salvage the Jan. 6 Case Against Trump,” by Ankush Khardori: “Special counsel JACK SMITH and Judge TANYA CHUTKAN have a narrow path to move forward with a trial.“ … “Now what? Here are the next moves for all the key players after the Trump immunity ruling,” by Josh Gerstein and Meridith McGraw … “Trump Moves to Overturn Manhattan Conviction, Citing Immunity Decision,” by NYT’s Ben Protess and William Rashbaum
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Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) issued a fiery statement following the SCOTUS ruling expanding presidential immunity. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE BIDEN PRESIDENCY — Shortly after the Supreme Court issued its bombshell opinion yesterday greatly expanding presidential immunity from criminal prosecution — and all but assuring DONALD TRUMP won’t stand trial for his alleged Jan. 6-related offenses this year — Rep. JERRY NADLER (D-N.Y.) issued a fiery statement. He called the decision “revolutionary” and that it would “set the stage for an unchecked dictatorship” if Trump won. So that means Nadler must want a stronger Democrat than President JOE BIDEN to face Trump, right? Nope. An aide said the congressman’s view is that Biden “had a bad night” at Thursday’s CNN debate but “he is our nominee” and what Democrats “must do is elect Joe Biden.” He added, “Everything else is a fantasy.” We don’t mean to single out Nadler. But that sort of split-screen response yesterday, from one of the Democratic Party’s foremost critics of Trump and his alleged abuses of office during his first term, struck us as emblematic of where Democrats find themselves five days after Biden’s debate debacle. In keeping with the pattern we’ve seen since then, the Democrats we spoke to yesterday were fully aware of the dissonance between their public outrage over the immunity opinion, which they say will make a Trump presidency more dangerous, and how they are talking about Biden. Still, they continue to keep their critical comments about the incumbent on background only: “It just ups the pressure on this whole thing,” one congressional Democrat said about the ruling, lamenting that Biden remains more dug in than ever. “It’s so selfish and pathetic.” A second House Democrat described a plea from a statewide elected official back home in a Midwestern state: “She's like, ‘If everybody just keeps saying that you can't do anything, we're gonna be Nazi Germany!’ People are in a panic.” Biden sees things differently, of course. He used the court’s opinion to return to his core message that Trump is a threat to democracy. Compared to last Thursday night, the president was noticeably tanner, louder and clearer while reading from a teleprompter in the early evening at the White House. The decision, he said, would allow a future President Trump “to do whatever he pleases.” He then left without addressing any of the shouted questions about whether he’d run again. ANATOMY OF A COCOON: Dysfunction at the heart of an otherwise functioning organization can go on for years without anyone complaining. But when a crisis hits, insiders suddenly start pointing fingers and naming names. Democrats were unusually withering about Biden’s team in conversations we had yesterday, repeatedly complaining about how “insular” his staff is. Some complained about pitiful conference calls from Biden campaign surrogates; other complained about Biden himself not reaching out. “He hasn’t called these governors!” said the second House Democrat. “Biden hasn’t called HAKEEM [JEFFRIES]!” (NBC News says Biden hasn’t called CHUCK SCHUMER either.) Democrats at Biden’s fundraiser in East Hampton on Saturday told us they were taken aback when Biden used a teleprompter to deliver brief remarks to the small crowd. Said one attendee, “If you believe the stakes of the race are what they are, and that they [Trump’s team] gaslight and lie, you can’t be like, ‘No, you all didn’t see what you just saw.” While some suggested it was a symptom of a staff-orchestrated deception campaign, others said the Biden team was just irrelevant. “Joe Biden doesn’t give a shit what his staff thinks,” said a former senior administration official. “And they are all in the tank anyway.” That’s the subject of a must-read piece this morning from Eli Stokols, Elena Schneider, Jonathan Lemire and Adam Cancryn: “How Biden HQ’s ‘bunker’ mentality teed up a debate meltdown” It is brimming over with quotes about how a clannish and overbearing staff bubble-wrapped Biden. We recommend you read every word of this one, but here are two quotes to give you a taste of what you will encounter: - On preparing a briefing for Biden: “It’s like, ‘You can’t include that, that will set him off’ or ‘Put that in, he likes that,’” said one senior administration official. “It’s very difficult and people are scared shitless of him.” The official added, “He doesn’t take advice from anyone other than those few top aides, and it becomes a perfect storm because he just gets more and more isolated from their efforts to control it.”
- On how Biden’s debate prep: ’“The whole planning, preparation was political malpractice," Democratic megadonor JOHN MORGAN said in an interview, laying blame on “the cabal" of the president’s closest aides, including RON KLAIN, ANITA DUNN and her husband, Biden’s personal lawyer, BOB BAUER. "I think he has a misplaced trust in these three people and I believe he has from the inception."
WAITING FOR DATA: As the sense of crisis gripped Democratic lawmakers over the weekend, several of the most vulnerable House Democrats discussed going public with a letter on their concerns about Biden, as we reported yesterday. But the frontliner effort fizzled. “Basically no one had the balls to run it,” the second House member said. “Everyone was talking about it and working each other up but nobody was actually taking the lead on it.” House leaders were telling their “terrified” members to wait for numbers to confirm that their fears were justified, with senior Dems, including Rep. JAMES CLYBURN (D-S.C.), working to calm them down and wait for the polling. That remains where things in Congress stand this morning. “If it turns out that he’s fucked and Congress is fucked, then that will be a whole second round of panic, and there will be a lot more pressure,” the first member said. “That’s when leadership will flip out because Hakeem wants to be the speaker, right? But they want us to wait for the numbers.” The former senior Biden administration official said that a serious effort to nudge Biden aside “will only happen when two things occur: bad polling and Hakeem and Schumer tell him Congress is lost.” “It’s all going to depend on the data,” said a third House Democrat. “Everybody can have all their opinions. But what happens if the numbers are still the same?” The Biden campaign continues to insist that’s exactly what happened. “Voters saw the debate, they took it in and didn’t change their minds,” Biden pollster Molly Murphy said on a call with donors, per the NYT. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: Whether you want to rent or buy, housing is in short supply—and it’s a crisis.
The National Association of REALTORS® is in an all-hands, all-front advocacy posture in this fight that impacts every American.
An equal majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents say housing affordability is a top concern.
Every elected official can rally around this cause at the local, state, and federal levels.
Only a bipartisan, comprehensive approach will win this fight. | | | WAITING IN THE WINGS — As the polling waiting game plays out, some would-be Biden replacements are very quietly doing reconnaissance. One former senior Biden administration official told Playbook he’s received calls from allies of potential candidates who ask, “If so-and-so governor was interested in this, what do you think they should do right now?” This person added, “This is not related to my previous comment, but the name I hear the most in the ‘What do you think? What are you hearing?’ conversations is GRETCHEN WHITMER.” Allies of KAMALA HARRIS are also making the case for the vice president, lest she get shoved aside in any post-Biden scenario — which is, it should be repeated, still unlikely. For what it’s worth, the Harris stans’ big point is that she would rightfully inherit all the Biden institutional advantages, including the Biden-Harris campaign treasury (so they believe), campaign staff, state infrastructure, and an inside track to winning at least a plurality of the Biden delegates. There was even a running mate option for Harris being floated by her admirers yesterday: Kentucky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR. CASH DASH — Amid the debate flop, Biden’s campaign is touting that its financial picture remains robust, according to new numbers released this morning. The campaign says it raised $127 million in June, a nearly 50 percent increase compared to the previous month, Elena Schneider and Jessica Piper report. The haul “helps the incumbent president end the second quarter on a financial high note after he was outraised by Trump in April and May.” Digging into the details: “The June fundraising total includes money raised directly by his campaign as well as the Democratic National Committee and two joint fundraising committees. The four groups collectively have $240 million cash on hand, up from $212 million at the end of May, the campaign said.” Trump’s June fundraising figures have not yet been released. His campaign alone ended May with $116.6 million in the bank versus the Biden’s campaign’s $91.6 million. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: HOT (AND COLD) ON THE LEFT — New polling out this morning paints a paltry picture for Biden’s support among progressives after his pained debate performance. The poll conducted by progressive group Our Revolution surveyed its supporters by email in the 72 hours after the debate on Thursday, capturing the opinions of more than 17,000 respondents across the U.S. The topline takeaway: 67 percent of respondents think Biden should suspend his campaign. But when the question gets down to the brass tacks, it is a bit less alarming for Biden: Only 32 percent of those surveyed said they’re less likely to support Biden after the debate, while 57 percent say it didn’t affect their support, indicating that even the progressive wing of the party might be willing to fall in line for the president at the ballot box. YIKES — Hurricane Beryl is ripping across the southern Caribbean as “the earliest Category 5 observed in the Atlantic basin on record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005,” the AP reports. The storm is on track to pass south of Jamaica and weaken before crossing Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and House are out. What we’re watching … Congressional Democrats infuriated by the Supreme Court’s Trump ruling mostly just vented in angry statements yesterday. But a few floated practical calls to action: Rep. JOE MORELLE (D-N.Y.) said he’d introduce a constitutional amendment to reverse the decision. Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) said she’d file impeachment articles against the responsible justices. And Sen. TINA SMITH (D-Minn.) renewed calls for an expansion of the court. What all of them have in common: They have no chance of success in divided government — or, really, anything short of an overwhelming national Democratic landslide. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. The president will receive an operational briefing and deliver remarks at the D.C. Emergency Operations Center. In the evening, Biden will attend a campaign reception in McLean, Virginia. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2:30 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to San Francisco, where she will speak at a political event in the afternoon, before traveling to D.C. in the evening.
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Should Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) go down in his primary fight, he would be the first Freedom Caucus chair to lose his seat. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | GOOD AND PLENTY — There is still no official winner in the Virginia GOP primary between House Freedom Caucus Chair BOB GOOD and challenger JOHN McGUIRE, with Good holding out hope that a recount will tip the scales back in his favor. But back on the Hill “discussions will shift to whether he can stay atop the group until the end of the year, when he would leave Congress — and if not, who could replace him,” Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney report. In fact, those “muted conversations are already taking place privately among GOP aides and members.” Should Good go down in his primary fight, he would be the first Freedom Caucus chair to lose his seat, putting the group in “uncharted territory.” While there is no bylaw that states he couldn’t remain in his post through the year, “some said it will be untenable for the group to spearhead discussions about fiscal spending next year when the chair won’t even be there.” More top reads:
- House Dems are urging the Pentagon to expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots as Kyiv races to improve its defenses against Russia, Joe Gould reports. “The lawmakers, led by Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) are backing Ukraine’s request for 10 more of their F-16 pilots to be trained this year, and are asking Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in a new letter to make it happen.”
JUDICIARY SQUARE
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The Supreme Court ducked a question on abortion pills and on emergency abortion yesterday. | Susan Walsh/AP | SCOTUS SETUP — In closing out its term yesterday, the Supreme Court ducked a question on abortion pills and on emergency abortions. That might give the justices a bit of a reprieve from election-year politics, but it’s only a brief respite. Lawsuits challenging access to abortion — from the rights of patients to travel across state lines for an abortion to the religious rights of people who support abortion, to federal regulation of abortion pills, to whether the 14th Amendment applies to fetuses — are on a path toward the bench and could come before the court as early as next year. Plus, a pair of rulings this week — on the Chevron doctrine and lifting the statute of limitations on challenging older government rules — “could create an open season on whatever future abortion policies the next president attempts to enact as well as rules already on the books,” Alice Miranda Ollstein writes. More top reads:
- Federal prosecutors began signaling yesterday that they may attempt to salvage dozens of felony cases against Jan. 6 defendants, even after a recent Supreme Court ruling appeared as though it might hamper DOJ’s ability to pursue them, Kyle Cheney writes. “It’s a sign the Justice Department does not view last week’s ruling from the high court as a blanket rejection of their efforts.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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NATO officials are preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump could return to the White House and reduce American support for Ukraine. | Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images | THE SHADOW OF TRUMP 2.0 — NATO officials are preparing a plan to “station a senior civilian official in Kyiv, among a raft of new measures designed to shore up long-term support for Ukraine that are expected to be announced at a summit in Washington next week,” WSJ’s Michael Gordon and Daniel Michaels report. “The steps seek to buttress Ukraine’s prospects to eventually join the alliance without offering it membership. They come amid a right-wing political surge across Europe and the growing possibility that former President Donald Trump could return to the White House and reduce American support for Ukraine.” Speaking of Trump: “Trump Probably Won’t Quit NATO. He’ll Just Make It Unrecognizable,” by Michael Hirsh for POLITICO Magazine Meanwhile: Ukraine said yesterday that it had “foiled yet another Russian plot to stir public unrest and then use the ensuing turmoil to topple the government,” NYT’s Marc Santora reports from Kyiv. Related read: “Trump says he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day. Russia’s UN ambassador says he can’t,” by AP’s Edith Lederer More top reads:
2024 WATCH THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — While the main focus of the campaign right now is on Biden’s age, there’s another piece of the elder equation that is flying a little bit under the radar both at home and abroad. “Older voters loom large in elections this year in the U.S., U.K. and France. Not only do they turn out to vote more reliably than the young, but they also account for a growing share of the electorate,” WSJ’s David Luhnow and Richard Rubin write. “As a result, leading political parties in many countries are pledging to protect retirees’ income and health coverage, at a time when growing numbers of retirees will strain government finances. Older voters often are more concerned than younger ones about crime and immigration, and less likely to support environmental initiatives.” TALES FROM THE CRYPTO — “Crypto takes its fight with SEC directly to Biden and Trump,” by CNBC’s Brian Schwartz and MacKenzie Sigalos MORE POLITICS THE BATTLE FOR SCOTUS — “Progressive advocacy group plans $10M offensive targeting Supreme Court,” by Heidi Przybyla: “According to plans first shared with POLITICO, the group intends to spend $10 million by the end of this year on a range of activities, from conducting opposition research on potential Supreme Court picks to advocating for ethics reforms for the high court.” ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Abortion-rights organizers have been buoyed by a string of recent victories on ballot measures to protect constitutional access to abortions in states like California, Ohio and Michigan. But in deep-red Arkansas, where organizers are fighting to secure enough signatures for a ballot measure of their own by this Friday, the movement is facing “perhaps its toughest test yet,” NYT’s Emily Cochrane writes.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Victoria Spartz was charged with a weapons violation at Dulles over the weekend. Jen Psaki will be interviewed by the House Foreign Affairs Committee about the Afghanistan pullout. John Fetterman made time for James Carville. George Logan wants to shred his way to Washington. Emma Tucker says she’s staying the course. OUT AND ABOUT — The USC Shoah Foundation hosted its second-annual Student Leadership Summit, with nearly 20 USC student athletes participating in two days of leadership workshops at the USC Capital Campus in D.C. before traveling to Poland to visit Krakow and Auschwitz. SPOTTED: Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism Deborah Lipstadt, Irene Fogel Weiss and Robert J. Williams. MEDIA MOVE — Kat Trainor is joining The Hill as VP of events. She previously was executive director of strategic partnerships for Bloomberg. The announcement HILL NEWS — Senate communications staffers current and past elected their new executive board for the Senate Press Secretaries Association, the largest and most active Capitol Hill professional organization. The organization will be led by Josh Sorbe as president, with board members Hannah Eddins, Eric Fejer, Phoebe Ferraiolo, Amy Hasenberg-Elliott, Natalie Ihrman, Brandon Jackson, Valeria Rivadeneira, Elisabeth St. Onge and Brennan Sullivan. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Lizzie Sheffield is now VP of advocacy at Poolhouse. She previously was director of paid media for API. TRANSITIONS — Kate Kelly is joining the Center for American Progress as senior director of the Women’s Initiative. She most recently was legislative director for Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and is a House Oversight alum. … William Samuel and Erinn Martin are joining NVG. Samuel will be a senior adviser and previously was director of government affairs at the AFL-CIO. Martin will be a VP and previously was director of nominations and cross-cutting policies at the National Women’s Law Center. … … Maddison Stone is now director of strategic comms for the U.S. Travel Association. She previously was comms director for Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.). … Gregory Saiontz is joining DLA Piper as a partner. He previously was a partner at Goodwin Proctor. … Luc R. Saint-Genies is now deputy chief of staff for the Americas at CMA CGM. He previously was chief of staff and an associate at Prime Policy Group. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) (4-0), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), Randy Weber (R-Texas) and Mike Collins (R-Ga.) … Jonathan Capehart … Eric Fanning of the Aerospace Industries Association … Brad Todd of On Message … Scott McGee of Kelley Drye … Derek Gianino of Wells Fargo … Billy Constangy … Matthew Dybwad … Jenny Beth Martin of Tea Party Patriots … Courtney Geduldig … Snap’s Gina Woodworth … Arkadi Gerney ... Sam Nitz ... … Reed Howard … former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu … former Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) … Luci Baines Johnson … Jeremy Garlington … NBC’s Tom Llamas and Keith Morrison … Abbey Rogers of DDC Public Affairs … Collin Davenport of Rep. Gerry Connolly’s (D-Va.) office … Chuck Nadd … Katherine Lehr … Berrin Tunçel … Setota Hailemariam … Jessica DeLoach Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Monday’s Playbook misstated the location of a fundraiser where Barack Obama helped Joe Biden off stage. It was in Los Angeles. It also included an incorrect birthday for Victoria Nuland. It is Oct. 25. Said Nuland to Playbook, “Like much of my Wiki, even my birthday is Russian disinfo. Have been trying to get it changed for years.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: Whether you want to rent or buy, housing is in short supply—and it’s a crisis.
The National Association of REALTORS® is in an all-hands, all-front advocacy posture in this fight that impacts every American.
An equal majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents say housing affordability is a top concern.
Every elected official can rally around this cause at the local, state, and federal levels.
Only a bipartisan, comprehensive approach will win this fight. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
