Leaky Liberals

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Jul 02, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ The Liberal caucus had itself a weekend.

→ WestJet mechanics did too — and are now back on the job.

EMMANUEL MACRON faces an existential choice in France.

DRIVING THE DAY


NO QUESTIONS — JUSTIN TRUDEAU appears to be skipping the Calgary Stampede this year. His schedule may change, but Playbook got its eyes on an email from the Prime Minister's Office that confirms Trudeau will not be attending the annual schmoozefest and celebration of western culture. Asked by Playbook, the PMO didn't confirm a decision had been made.

The prime minister has mostly avoided reporters since that stunning Toronto by-election loss.

But Trudeau has not exactly been laying low. During the past few days, he took in Toronto Pride events and danced with vigor at the Taste of Asia festival in Markham, Ont. On Canada Day, he flew to St. John's for the Memorial Day repatriation of Newfoundland and Labrador's unknown soldier — and stopped by Canada Day celebrations in town.

Trudeau did take questions from CBC's HEATHER HISCOX following the St. John's ceremony. The PM insisted he'd stay on as Liberal leader.

The MO these days: Stick to the script; steer clear of reporters in the Ottawa fishbowl.

— In the meantime, Playbook's texts were filling up with leaky Liberals.

— Next on the agenda: Trudeau's itinerary includes a Wednesday evening fundraiser, co-hosted at Montreal's Place d'Armes hotel by Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Tourism Minister SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA.

— Western alienation: Trudeau once boasted about all the time he spent in Calgary. He made the city his first leadership campaign stop in 2012, and returned a year later as leader with a sunny-ways speech at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

"Keep an open mind," he said in closing to the business crowd that day. "You can find friends in the most unexpected places."

You can lose them, too.

— About the Stampede: The first weekend of Calgary's annual bash is typically a staple of every serious political leader's summer calendar.

Liberal MP GEORGE CHAHAL hosts a popular annual pancake breakfast. Cabinet ministers always show. So does the PM, usually.

The party is hosting a Laurier Club reception on Saturday afternoon. The PM hosted last year, alongside RANDY BOISSONNAULT and ANITA ANAND. This year's headliner is TBD.

A twist this year: Chahal headlined a Friday-evening letter to Liberal caucus chair BRENDA SHANAHAN demanding an in-person caucus meeting ASAP.

The Hill Times was first to reveal the name of the MP who led the charge on the letter. Chahal and eight co-signatories claimed that dozens of colleagues had reached a "clear consensus" on the need to meet.

Meanwhile, Trudeau's rivals are Stampede bound.

— Conservative partying: Fresh off a happy-warrior caravan tour of Quebec, PIERRE POILIEVRE will be all over Calgary.

On Friday, the Tory leader has a 1:30 p.m. date with donors at the Southern Alberta Pioneers Building. He'll head south of town for an evening fundraiser at Sirocco Golf Club.

Buoyant crowds are sure to meet their party leader.

On Saturday morning, Poilievre will likely join a pile of CPC MPs at JASRAJ SINGH HALLAN's pancake breakfast at Marlborough Mall. The Tory leader caps the day with a massive BBQ at Heritage Park.

Thursday morning's Playbook will include a full Stampede preview for “eastern bums” flying west for the festival's frenzied first weekend.

GOSSIP OVERLOAD — About that letter.

When Chahal’s plea for a caucus meeting circulated ahead of the long weekend, the missive capped a week that wouldn't end for Liberals still smarting from the Toronto by-election that got unnamed tongues flapping.

The most eye-popping talker was from journalist JUSTIN LING, who chronicled Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT's VIA Rail business lounge damage-control phone calls in the aftermath of the election. Ling only heard one side of each conversation, but it was awkward all the same. Who holds ultra-sensitive convos in a train station?

Next up was ALTHIA RAJ's reporting, also in The Toronto Star, about the note from Liberal MP WAYNE LONG to caucus calling for the PM's head.

— Caucus talkus: Chahal left it to his co-signatories to identify themselves. None has so far come forward. Here's what they had to say:

→ Bad loss: "This was a race the Liberal Party of Canada should not have lost. Our government has a strong legacy of achievement since 2015. The Liberal brand and our values resonate with Canadians."

→ Reality check: "However, many Canadians who have supported us are no longer supportive, they have tuned out. The residents of Toronto St. Paul were clear in sending a message. If we claim to be listening, then our public responses are disconnected from reality."

— Follow the leader: Nepean MP CHANDRA ARYA posted on X that he's not a member of the "PMJT Super Fans Club" because Trudeau has "taken [the] party and the government too far left of centre." Nevertheless, Arya reaffirmed his support for the PM.

— Call in the members: "Forget the anonymous quotes from Liberal MPs in the media, of which I will never be one," said Beaches-East York MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, who reps a riding not too far from Toronto-St. Paul's.

Erskine-Smith urged Trudeau to make his case for leadership to Liberal Party members as a whole.

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 
Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events on his itinerary.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa with no public events on her itinerary.

— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET visits Site de la Nouvelle France in Quebec's Saguenay Lac-Saint-Jean region.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will "attend to private appointments."

We're tracking the political events of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

Here’s POLITICO Canada contributor Philippe J. Fournier with the state of play: 

NOBODY'S SAFE — Looking at polls and projections over the past year, how many Liberal MPs had been thinking: “Well, surely my riding is safe.” After a stunning defeat in Toronto-St. Paul’s, fewer of them probably believe they're immune from a hypothetical Conservative wave.

Even before last week's by-election, 338Canada's projections put many Liberal seats in Toronto in play, something we had not witnessed since Trudeau assumed the Liberal leadership in 2013. Five by-elections and three general elections — 25 seats up for grabs in each — have played out in the city in the Trudeau era.

Until last week, the Liberals were 80 for 80 — a complete sweep.

— The big question: If the Liberals can’t hold Toronto, consistently poll below the Conservatives by double digits in Atlantic Canada, can’t do better than third place west of the Ontario-Manitoba border, and can’t outperform the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, what will be left of the Liberal caucus after the next election?

— The numbers: Liberals are currently either trailing or in a statistical tie with their rivals in 13 of 24 Toronto seats (on the new electoral map in which the city lost a seat).

If current numbers don’t improve for the LPC, their B.C. caucus could face a near wipeout, dropping from 15 seats to only two. Outside of Greater Montreal and Gatineau, only FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE would retain his seat among colleagues in rural or small-town Quebec.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING


AIRBORNE AGAIN — WestJet mechanics are back on the job.

The airline struck a tentative deal in the final hours of June with the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association, which reps nearly 700 maintenance workers.

— Travel chaos: CBC News pegged WestJet's flight cancelation count at 832. The long-weekend labor disruption foiled travel plans for "an estimated 100,000 passengers."

— They said, they said: The airline accused the union of "blatant efforts to disrupt the travel plans of thousands of Canadians" over the Canada Day weekend.

The U.S.-based AMFA rebutted the claim: "The timing was coincidental as the negotiation process did not follow a predictable timeline," read a statement.

— Concession count: The union negotiated an immediate 15.5 percent wage increase. "Your presence in bargaining sessions and on picket lines had a meaningful impact on the end result of this journey," read a statement to members.

— Phew: An exasperated federal labor minister fired off a middle-of-the-night X post.

"WestJet & AMFA have reached a tentative agreement, Canadians’ patience having been worn too thin," said SEAMUS O'REGAN. "Collective bargaining is the responsibility of the parties. The responsibility of the government is to facilitate and mediate that bargaining. The parties finally did their jobs."

O'Regan's office said he'll have more to say in the coming days.

— What's next: The union's membership, which rejected an earlier tentative deal, will vote to ratify this one.

Anxious summer travelers need not fret, the airline says: "We will see no further labour action coming out of this dispute, as both parties agree to arbitrate the contract in the case of a failed ratification."

FRENCH ELECTIONS — President EMMANUEL MACRON's snap parliamentary elections were a disaster. The far-right National Rally headed by MARINE LE PEN is threatening to take power after a second round of votes on July 7.

Le Pen's party scooped up 33 percent of first-round votes, ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front's near 29 percent. Macron's Ensemble trailed at just shy of 21 percent.

French President Emmanuel Macron takes a selfie with supporters after voting in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage,  France, on June 30, 2024.

French President Emmanuel Macron takes a selfie with supporters after voting in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, France, on June 30, 2024. | Yara Nardi, Pool via AP

— The EU reacts: Our colleagues rounded up reactions from European leaders that offered few surprises. The far right was jazzed.

— Forks in the road: The once-popular French president faces a pivotal decision before the second, final round of votes that will elect the next National Assembly.

POLITICO's CLEA CAULCUTT sets the stakes for Macron: "After his snap election gamble backfired, EMMANUEL MACRON faces a bitterly painful choice: pull his candidates out to try to stop the far right, or attempt to save what remains of his once-dominant movement before it dies."

On Monday, New Popular Front candidates were already withdrawing from districts where three-way battles are expected in Sunday's vote.

LIBERALS — Until journalists decide to talk about something else, any Cabinet minister or MP who makes a funding or policy announcement is likely to face questions about party solidarity.

Good luck generating easy buzz for the BBQ circuit.

MEDIA ROOM

People gather outside the U.S. Supreme Court.

Donald Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution over some actions he took as president while fighting to subvert the 2020 election, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Monday, | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

— Monday's biggest headline in Washington came out of the Supreme Court: Trump is immune from prosecution for some acts in federal election case.

— From POLITICO’s KYLE CHENEY: 3 surprising consequences of the immunity decision.

— Top of POLITICO this morning: How Biden HQ’s ‘bunker’ mentality teed up a debate meltdown.

— Who had "ANDREW LAWTON published in The Walrus" on their 2024 Bingo card? On Canada Day, the mag published an excerpt from Lawton's biography of the Tory leader: Who is the real PIERRE POILIEVRE?

— ICYMI: Canada's next top soldier is JENNIE CARIGNAN, CBC News scooped on Friday before the long weekend.

PROZONE


Don’t miss our latest newsletter for Pro subscribers from ZI-ANN LUM: What is Canada doing to debunk Trump?

In other news for Pros: 

US briefs NATO allies on Russian space nuke.

Extreme heat deadlier than wildfires, California insurance regulator says.

U.S. presses Philippines to stop targeted harassment, killing of activists.

POLITICO Q&A: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Precious rare earth metals belong to the state, China declares.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY


— Cabinet ministers are on the photo-op circuit. Watch for questions about the prime minister-sized elephant in the room.

9 a.m. (10 a.m. AT) Veterans Affairs Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR and Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC are in Moncton, N.B., to announce funding for National Acadian Day celebrations.

10 a.m. (11 a.m. AT) Housing Minister SEAN FRASER is in Antigonish, N.S., for an energy funding announcement.

11 a.m. (10 a.m. CT) Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL makes an infrastructure announcement in Winnipeg.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to Sen. JANE CORDY, former Liberal MP LINDA LAPOINTE and BRYAN DETCHOU, senior director at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Celebrate your day with the Playbook community. Send us the details. We’ll let everyone know.

Spotted: Japanese Ambassador KANJI YAMANOUCHI, shredding “O Canada” on an electric guitar.

ELON MUSK, following Uber co-founder TRAVIS KALANICK on X.

Noted: Ottawa launched a pair of public consultations right before the long weekend. The government is asking for input on proposed regulations to implement the Canada Disability Benefit and the "right to repair" consumer appliances and electronics.

Movers and shakers: Later today, Enterprise Canada will announce FAREES NATHOO as the firm's new VP of strategy and risk.

PM Trudeau snuck in a Friday afternoon appointment of an "independent" senator with a Liberal CV. VICTOR BOUDREAU is a former finance and health minister in New Brunswick who served as interim party leader between the SHAWN GRAHAM and BRIAN GALLANT eras. The PM's news release doesn't mention the L-word. Boudreau's bio mentions it once.

BENJAMIN NYCUM was recently named chair of the Canadian Museum for Human Rights board of trustees.

TRIVIA


Monday’s answer: FÉLIX-ANTOINE HAMEL was the first candidate in federal electoral history to receive zero votes in a contested riding. Hamel ran as part of the Longest Ballot Committee effort in Toronto-St. Paul's.

Props to JOHN DELACOURT, DARREN MAJOR (who revealed the trivia in the link above), ALYSON FAIR, MARCEL MARCOTTE, BRANDON RABIDEAU, BARB WRIGHT, MATTHEW DUBÉ, ÉRIC GRENIER, JIM CAMPBELL, ROHIN MINOCHA-MCKENNEY, and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Today’s question: What kind of apocalypse did former NDP MP PAT MARTIN once warn against in the House?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Writing Wednesday’s Ottawa Playbook: ZI-ANN LUM. 

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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