| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BATTLE OF THE TAKES — “What Happens If Biden Does Step Down? According to History: A Mess,” by Joshua Zeitz for POLITICO Magazine … “Doing Nothing About Biden Is the Riskiest Plan of All,” by Nate Silver in the NYT SEAL TEAM 6 UPDATE — “The court’s decision in Trump v. United States really does appear to immunize a hypothetical president who directed the military to commit murder,” Kelsey Griffin, Erica Orden and Lara Seligman write, “though a president might be hard-pressed to find someone to carry out such an order.” QUOTE OF THE DAY — “‘None of this was an accident,’ [DON] McGAHN, a partner at Jones Day, said in an interview about the court’s landmark rulings on administrative law.” Via NYT’s Carl Hulse
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For the first time in years, VP Kamala Harris seems to be having a genuine moment. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | HARRIS RISING — When VP KAMALA HARRIS’ staff held their usual Monday staff meeting this week, chief of staff LORRAINE VOLES kicked it off with a clear message: “We are following our leader,” she said, according to people present. Harris is supporting President JOE BIDEN, Voles told them, emphasizing that there would be no tolerance for engaging in the Plan B parlor games that had dominated Democratic politics in the days since Biden’s disastrous debate. All of them, she said, had to do their part to leave no doubt about whose name would appear atop the Democratic ticket. And yet: For the first time in years, Harris seems to be having a genuine moment — fueled by speculation that she, not Biden, would be the more competitive nominee. The vibe shift solidified over the course of several hours yesterday — from when former Rep. TIM RYAN (D-Ohio) called on Biden to “rip the band aid off” and hand the baton to his VP, to the release of a CNN poll that showed Harris outperforming Biden in a head-to-head with DONALD TRUMP, to a parade of pundits online and off recognizing that maybe their wishcasting about certain ambitious governors had actually been misplaced. What’s clear is that the strange new respect developed without any nudge from Harris herself, who at every turn since Thursday’s debate has defended Biden and batted away questions about a bow-out. “Look, Joe Biden is our nominee,” she said yesterday. “We beat Trump once, and we're gonna beat him, period.” While Biden has been slow to reach out to key Democratic allies, he has spoken multiple times with Harris since the debate, we're told. Later today, in a true to-be-a-fly-on-that-wall moment, they will sit down for lunch together at the White House. This much remains true: Biden at this moment appears unlikely to change course. Harris has weak approval and favorability ratings compared to other possible alternatives. Nearly everyone we spoke to believes a Harris-led ticket remains firmly in the realm of fantasy. “Joe Biden won the Democratic nomination,” DONNA BRAZILE, the veteran Democratic consultant, told us. “To undermine the voters in this country at this hour would be the worst thing the Democratic Party could ever do.” And yet: The case is there for those who are willing to make it, as we picked up in our hours hitting the phones last night (not to mention, some unsolicited messages). — Take the polling: Per CNN, Harris beats Trump by 29 points with people of color, versus 21 points for Biden. Biden loses independent voters by 10 points, while Harris wins that group by three points. — Take the money: Harris, unlike the other candidates, could have relatively easy access to the $240 million Biden-Harris campaign war chest. Other candidates would start nearly from scratch. — Take the record: Harris could credibly run on the popular parts of Biden’s policy record — things like health care, tax policy, infrastructure and more — without being hobbled by the age and mental acuity questions Biden faces. (She’d have her own questions to face, of course.) — Take the issues: Harris has been the tip of the spear for the entire party on abortion, stumping enthusiastically around the country on the Democrat’s best issue while Biden can hardly stand to say the word “abortion” out loud. — Take her energy: No doubt Harris has been mocked for her shaky work as a public speaker (you’ve seen the, er, highlight reel going around). But she has sharpened her game, many Democrats acknowledge — and even her worst days on the trail at this point are likely to be less problematic than Biden’s best. — Take the practicalities: Were Biden to step aside, the appetite for a knock-down, drag-out fight culminating in a contested convention will be limited, Democrats told us. For the vast majority of delegates, Harris is a known quantity who has already been tested at the highest level of national politics. “The more people understand the physics of the nomination fight, the stronger her candidacy becomes,” said JAMAL SIMMONS, Harris’ former communications director. “It's delegates, it's the racial and gender dynamics. … And she also is the most vetted of the people right there. There are no more shoes to drop with her.” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. Program note: You’ll have Playbook PM in your inbox later today, then it and the Playbook Daily Briefing podcast will be off until Monday.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: Whether you want to rent or buy, housing is in short supply—and it’s a crisis.
The National Association of REALTORS® is in an all-hands, all-front advocacy posture in this fight that impacts every American.
An equal majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents say housing affordability is a top concern.
Every elected official can rally around this cause at the local, state, and federal levels.
Only a bipartisan, comprehensive approach will win this fight. | | | BIDEN FALLING — Yesterday’s Playbook PM was titled, “The dam breaks on Biden,” and included news of the first congressional Democrat, Rep. LLOYD DOGGETT (D-Texas), calling for the president to step aside. Here’s a taste of what has been reported since …
- The NYT unspooled a 3,000-plus word chronicle of how Biden’s mental lapses have been “growing more frequent, more pronounced and more worrisome,” according to people who have personally interacted with him.
- Former President BARACK OBAMA has told allies privately that “Biden’s already-tough path to reelection grew more challenging after his shaky debate performance on Thursday,” despite publicly backing Biden, WaPo’s Tyler Pager and Michael Scherer broke last night.
- Rep. JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) offered something short of a full endorsement of Biden’s ability to do the job, saying he’d have to “wait on the experts in medicine” to weigh in.
- Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) called the Democratic presidential nomination “a moving target” on MSNBC. “It’s gotta happen quickly,” he added.
- Sen. JOE MANCHIN (I-W.Va.) threatened to publicly break from Biden in a Sunday show appearance before top Democrats convinced him to stand down, WaPo’s Hill team reported.
- Reps. JARED GOLDEN (D-Maine) and MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ (D-Wash.) both said that they believe Trump will win in November.
- Former HUD Secretary JULIÁN CASTRO called on Biden to be “a bridge” and drop out of the race.
- So did ADAM FRISCH, the Colorado Democrat running for the seat now held by GOP Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT in a key swing district.
- Some House members warned during a Democratic Policy and Communications Committee meeting that Doggett’s call would not be a “one off” if “the White House doesn’t ‘start to show that they get it,’” per Axios.
- Rep. DON DAVIS (D-N.C.) said of Biden, “If he’s going to stay in, he needs to step up,”, while Gov. JB PRITZKER of Illinois said on CNN that Biden “needs to communicate more.”
- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving two states in Trump’s direction this morning. Michigan moves from Leans Dem to Toss-up, while Minnesota goes from Likely Dem to Leans Dem. “President Biden’s debate performance was so bad that it has forced us to reassess some of our assumptions about the race,” writes forecaster Kyle Kondik.
On the flip side …
- Speaker NANCY PELOSI walked back earlier comments that “it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?” with her spokesperson saying she "has full confidence in [Biden] and looks forward to attending his inauguration on January 20, 2025.”
- Biden booked a Friday interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos (which won’t air in full till Sunday), committed to a full press conference at next week’s NATO summit and invited Democratic governors to meet at the White House tonight.
- Biden also debuted a new talking point, blaming his pre-debate travel schedule (never mind that he’d been holed up at Camp David for a week beforehand): “I didn’t listen to my staff and I came back and then I almost fell asleep on stage.”
Meanwhile …
- Trump has done and said virtually nothing aside from his usual stream of Truth Social postings. He has no further events scheduled and is not expected to name his running names this week, in what is a “a seldom-seen strategy from the attention-driven former president,” as NYT’s Michael C. Bender writes.
ANNALS OF TRUMP-PROOFING — “How Democratic lawyers are bracing for Trump’s return,” by Liz Crampton: “Democratic attorneys general are exploring hiring outside experts and dispatching staff to study areas of the law anticipated to come under attack, like reproductive health, immigration and the environment. They are identifying staff members best equipped to fight assertions of executive privilege … and states best positioned to lead bigger cases. And they are scrutinizing Project 2025.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. What we’re watching … If congressional Republicans have had a watch-word under the Biden administration, it’s “weaponization.” That’s how the GOP has described the actions of AG MERRICK GARLAND’s Justice Department as it has pursued charges against Trump and his allies, to the point of creating a select committee with that name. Now, in the wake of Monday’s Supreme Court decision granting presidents blanket immunity from prosecution for official acts, it’s Democrats who are suddenly using the W-word, Jordain Carney and Katherine Tully-McManus report for Inside Congress. Under the ruling, Sen. LAPHONZA BUTLER (D-Calif.) said yesterday, Trump “wants to set aside the Constitution, and he wants to weaponize our agencies against his political opponents.” At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief with Harris attending at 11:30 a.m., followed by lunch together at 12:15 p.m. Biden will speak at a Medal of Honor ceremony at 4:45 p.m., and then meet with Democratic governors at 6:30 p.m.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
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|  Justice Juan Merchan agreed to postpone Donald Trump's potential sentencing for his hush money guilty verdict until Sept. 18. | Seth Wenig, File/AP Photo | | IMMUNITY FALLOUT — The Supreme Court’s seismic ruling on presidential immunity is rapidly upending nearly all of Trump’s ongoing criminal cases. Most immediately, Justice JUAN MERCHAN agreed to postpone the former president’s potential sentencing for his hush money guilty verdict until Sept. 18, just seven weeks before the election, per the WSJ. The delay will give Trump’s lawyers a chance to argue that some of the evidence prosecutors presented should now be considered improper, because the high court cordoned off presidents’ official acts as protected. Merchan said he’ll rule on this immunity question Sept. 6. In the Georgia case, prosecutors will now have to surmount another obstacle when Judge SCOTT McAFEE has to disentangle Trump’s official and unofficial acts, NYT’s Danny Hakim reports. That would cause more delays, though Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS’ unforced errors have already punted the case perhaps to next year. And in the D.C. federal case, experts tell Axios’ April Rubin that special counsel JACK SMITH will face a very difficult process to keep his case alive, making the same separations of Trump’s actions under the Supreme Court’s new standard. Nonetheless, WaPo’s Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein report that even if Trump wins the election, the Justice Department will keep pursuing its cases against him until he’s inaugurated, not stopping on Election Day. JUDICIARY SQUARE A MAN WALKS OUT OF A BAR — New York officially disbarred RUDY GIULIANI yesterday, stripping the former NYC mayor of his law license because of his efforts to subvert the 2020 election. More from ABC SCOTUS WATCH — The Supreme Court may have issued its final decisions of the term, but a flurry of announcements yesterday teed up which cases the justices will hear — and, just as crucially, which they won’t — next term. What the court will hear:
- A battle over vaping stemming from the FDA’s decision to block a pair of flavored e-cigarettes. More from Roll Call
And what it won’t hear:
- Several challenges to gun-control laws, including Illinois’ assault weapons ban and a New York law barring guns in “sensitive” public spaces — perhaps an indication that after Rahimi, the court is slowing down on expanding gun rights. More from Reuters
- A challenge to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration that could have offered conservatives another chance to pare back agencies’ regulatory power. More from Reuters
- A teen’s attempt to accuse Snapchat of not protecting minors from sexual predators. More from Reuters
OTHER SCOTUS FALLOUT — “Chevron decision crushes Washington’s approach to cyber regulations,” by Axios’ Sam Sabin: “[The Supreme Court’s ruling is] a nail in the coffin for an executive branch-led strategy that attempted to require many organizations to practice basic cybersecurity via new interpretations of existing law.” 2024 WATCH
|  Robert F. Kennedy Jr. didn’t respond specifically to a recent allegation of sexual assault or outright deny it. | Damian Dovarganes/AP Photo | KENNEDY IN THE HOT SEAT — The third-party campaign of ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. was rocked yesterday by the allegation in a Vanity Fair article that he sexually assaulted a babysitter in the 1990s when he was in his mid-40s, among various other scandals. Later in the day, he sat down for an interview with The Hill’s Saagar Enjeti, and (as with Vanity Fair) he didn’t respond specifically to the allegation of sexual assault or outright deny it. Instead, Kennedy criticized the magazine for “recycling 30-year-old stories,” but he admitted to having had “a very, very rambunctious youth” and “so many skeletons in my closet.” “I’m not a church boy,” Kennedy said. He also raked Vanity Fair over the coals for apparently getting some details wrong about another story — he claimed that a photo of him with what the magazine said was a dead dog in Korea was actually a dead goat in Patagonia. More from The Daily Beast
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Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, warned that watering down the Republican platform would “destroy pro-life enthusiasm between now and the election.” | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images | CONVENTIONAL WISDOM — The fight over the GOP’s abortion platform at the Republican National Convention is starting to come to a head. The Trump campaign swapped out two hard-liners for loyalists on the platform committee, Natalie Allison and Megan Messerly scooped, indicating that the Trump team’s fears of going too extreme on abortion could outweigh social conservatives’ fears of going too soft on abortion. Leading anti-abortion advocates are increasingly sounding the alarm that Trump is going squishy on stamping out the procedure. Yesterday, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America president MARJORIE DANNENFELSER warned that watering down the platform — and removing support for a federal role in restricting abortion — would “destroy pro-life enthusiasm between now and the election,” per Reuters’ James Oliphant and Nathan Layne. Raising worries further is the news that the RNC will craft its platform in secret, without C-SPAN access to broadcast it. As Semafor’s Dave Weigel notes, that’s a change from how platforms have been crafted for decades and how Democrats will still do it this year. More top reads:
- The stakes for November: “Trump’s imperial presidency in waiting,” by Axios’ Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen: “[He] plans to immediately test the boundaries of presidential and governing power, knowing the restraints of Congress and the courts are dramatically looser than during his first term.”
- Huge haul: The Trump campaign and RNC together pulled in a whopping $112 million in June, they announced yesterday. That fell short of Biden and Democrats’ $127 million, though the Republicans triumphed overall for the second quarter, $331 million to $264 million. More from Bloomberg
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD CUTTING BACK — The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief first created in the GEORGE W. BUSH administration is one of the most consequential things any president has done in the 21st century, saving millions of African lives. But the State Department is now slashing its funding by 6 percent, Carmen Paun reports. That’s raising alarm among advocates who say PEPFAR is crucial to protecting vulnerable populations from HIV and AIDS. The planned cuts would reach as high as 29 percent for Burundi. IMMIGRATION FILES — “U.S. Sends a Plane of Chinese Migrants to China,” by WSJ’s Jazper Lu and Shen Lu: “DHS … said it was the first large such flight since 2018.” TO KYIV, WITH LOVE — The U.S. will soon announce another $2.3 billion in military aid heading to Ukraine, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said yesterday, per AP’s Tara Copp and Lolita Baldor. MORE POLITICS CASH DASH — Second-quarter fundraising numbers are starting to trickle in. A couple of notable totals yesterday: Democrat JANELLE STELSON raised $1.3 million for her Pennsylvania congressional campaign, per Punchbowl’s Mica Soellner, and Democrat MAGGIE GOODLANDER took in $1.55 million for her New Hampshire congressional primary, per WMUR-TV’s Kirk Enstrom. NOTABLE QUOTABLE — Heritage Foundation President KEVIN ROBERTS said yesterday that the rising right wing is “in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.” More from Media Matters BEYOND THE BELTWAY DEPT. OF CHECKS AND BALANCES — “America’s most popular governors are also the most powerless,” by Jordan Wolman and Liz Crampton in Montpelier, Vermont: “Five state executives must contend with legislatures controlled by supermajorities from the opposite party.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | John McGuire was officially declared the winner over Bob Good. Maryam Hassanein is the latest Biden appointee to quit over Gaza. Ivanka Trump is going to the convention. Dave Chappelle will headline a show for Hill Harper. Bernie Sanders is navigating an unusual moment. Andrew Cuomo has a new pro-Israel group, “Never Again, Now!” TRANSITIONS — Rebecca Leber is now senior investigative researcher at the Center for Climate Integrity. She previously was climate senior reporter at Vox. … Anthony Renzulli is now an associate partner on Albright Stonebridge Group’s South Asia practice. He previously was director for India at the NSC. … Luis Padilla will be chief health officer at the National Association of Community Health Centers. He most recently has been associate administrator for the Bureau of Health Workforce at HHS’ Health Resources and Services Administration and director of the National Health Service Corps. … … Amelia Suermann is joining Otsuka Pharmaceutical as director of federal government affairs. She previously was senior adviser for congressional and political advocacy at the American College of Surgeons. … Tim Parrish is now Virginia state director of Americans for Prosperity. He previously was a founding partner of the Statesmen Strategy Group. … Maya Nir is now a research scholar at NYU Law School and editorial assistant for Just Security. She previously was media relations and global comms coordinator at Foreign Affairs and the Council on Foreign Relations. ENGAGED — Drew Erickson, a sales manager at Vivint, proposed to Macy Gardner, rapid response director at the NRCC and a Ron DeSantis alum, on a walk in Central Park on Saturday on their anniversary trip to New York. They met three years ago in college at Florida State, when they were both working at Walk On’’s Sports Bistreaux in Tallahassee. Pics — Sara Wanous, government relations manager at the Ocean Conservancy, and Zach Johnson, general manager at Garden Goods Direct, got engaged on Monday in Lisbon. The two met in San Diego in 2018. Pic ... Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Jared Todd, senior press secretary at the Human Rights Campaign and Spencer Brooks, assistant director of multi-platform content at WUSA-9, got married Saturday at Tudor Place. A string quartet played Rent’s “Seasons of Love” as they walked down the aisle. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Chris Hansen, founder of Canvass America and an NRSC and Cory Gardner alum, and Megan Hansen, VP of political affairs at Rocket Companies and an NRCC alum, welcomed Rhett Nolen Hansen on Sunday. He joins big brothers Owen and Miles. Pic ... Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) … Julian Assange ... Kristen Morgante of Purple Strategies … Peter Sherman of DDC Public Affairs ... Nick Baldick of Hilltop Public Solutions ... Don “Stew” Stewart ... AFP’s Shaun Tandon ... POLITICO’s Heidi Vogt … Rina Shah … Washington Examiner’s Naomi Lim ... Lindy Royce-Bartlett ... former Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) ... Adam Goldberg … Andrew Peek of Rep. Mike Waltz’s (R-Fla.) office … Kate McCarty … Giffords’ Mary Yatrousis ... Lally Weymouth ... Barbara Lee of the Barbara Lee Family Foundation … Maya Serkin … PBS NewsHour’s Julia Griffin ... Gloria Allred … Tom Shaw of Greater Washington Partnership … Elise Joshi of Gen-Z for Change Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Tuesday’s Playbook misstated Lizzie Sheffield's title at the American Petroleum Institute. She was formerly vice president of paid media.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: Whether you want to rent or buy, housing is in short supply—and it’s a crisis.
The National Association of REALTORS® is in an all-hands, all-front advocacy posture in this fight that impacts every American.
An equal majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents say housing affordability is a top concern.
Every elected official can rally around this cause at the local, state, and federal levels.
Only a bipartisan, comprehensive approach will win this fight. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
