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Jul 15, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ The Republican National Convention show is going on after the attempted assassination of DONALD TRUMP. POLITICO has full coverage.

→ Canada's premiers arrive in Halifax for summer meetings. Playbook is there.

TIFF MACKLEM wakes up Tuesday with inflation rates on his mind.

DRIVING THE DAY

Stagehands prepare US flags inside Fiserv Forum ahead of the 2024 Republican National Convention on July 14, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The convention will take place from July 15th to the 18th. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP) (Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)

The Republican National Convention kicks off today in Milwaukee. | AFP via Getty Images

THE SHOW GOES ON — It'll be a hero's welcome in Milwaukee.

Two days after DONALD TRUMP's right ear was pierced by gunfire at a rally in rural western Pennsylvania, thousands of Republicans are gathering in the lakeside city in a must-win swing state to formally name Trump their presidential candidate.

— That viral photo: You've already seen it. EVAN VUCCI's AP image of a bloody-faced Trump, pumping his fist in defiance before he was escorted to safety, instantly defined his campaign. (The New York Times' DOUG MILLS captured the moment but missed the flag.)

MUST READS: The latest headlines from POLITICO:

Blood turns to martyrdom as Republicans rally around Trump by ADAM WREN and NATALIE ALLISON.

Trump’s raised fist will make history by JONATHAN MARTIN.

6 unanswered questions about the Trump shooting by KIMBERLY LEONARD and ANDREW ATTERBURY.

‘Massive security breach’: Secret Service under scrutiny by JOSH GERSTEIN and KYLE CHENEY.

Biden pleads with Americans to cool down the political temperature by MYAH WARD and LAUREN EGAN.

The FBI identified the suspected gunman. Here’s what we know by MILES J. HERSZENHORN and ERIN BANCO.

A general view during rehearsals at the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum.

A sneak peek at the set of the 2024 Republican National Convention. | Paul Sancya/AP

— Wall-to-wall POLITICO coverage: The CNN-POLITICO Grill at Milwaukee's Turner Hall convenes leading GOP voices for four days of convention fodder.

On today's docket (in Eastern time):

12 p.m. Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) in conversation with D.C. Playbook co-author RACHAEL BADE.

12:30 p.m. Former RNC chair and White House chief of staff REINCE PREIBUS in conversation with executive editor ANNE MCELVOY.

1 p.m. Former national security adviser ROBERT O'BRIEN in conversation with POLITICO Live's KEVIN BARON.

2 p.m. Independent presidential candidate ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. in a virtual conversation with politics bureau chief JONATHAN MARTIN.

3:30 p.m. Entrepreneur VIVEK RAMASWAMY in conversation with national correspondent MERIDITH MCGRAW.

— The Canadian angle: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU confirmed Sunday that he'd spoken with Trump.

What happened to the former president is likely to revive simmering conversations north of the border about Parliament Hill security measures and rising threats against politicians.

A June 2023 report from Canada's Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections Task Force, obtained by The Canadian Press earlier this year, warned that threats against politicians are becoming "increasingly normalized."

The authors added: "Violent rhetoric routinely fixates on elected officials — with particular hostility towards high-profile women."

For your radar


HELLO, HALIFAX — The premiers arrive in Canada’s ocean playground for three days of summer confabbing. Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON is this year's host.

— On the agenda: Housing and affordability, health care, infrastructure, energy, Canada-U.S. relations, emergency preparedness and response, and Arctic security.

→ The subplot: In a July 11 letter that cc'd every premier, Houston urged JUSTIN TRUDEAU to "work with us in a true partnership to revitalize cooperative federalism."

The words were diplomatic. The message to the PM and his Cabinet: stay in your lane.

"To revive the collaborative spirit of the federation, we urge the federal government to refrain from unilateral actions in areas of provincial and territorial jurisdiction, particularly in health care, education, and housing. In areas of shared responsibility, timely outreach and engagement will ensure that our respective programs, funding, and policies complement one another and are effective in each jurisdiction across Canada."

→ Indigenous leaders: Several leading Indigenous organizations will meet with premiers today amid what CBC's OLIVIA STEFANOVICH describes as a deteriorating relationship.

"I would say in the last year the relationship with provinces and territories has regressed," Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami president NATAN OBED told her.

Métis National Council President CASSIDY CARON says her organization, as well as the Assembly of First Nations and ITK, should be at the table for all premiers' meetings — not a single session on Day One.

Obed and Caron, Stefanovich reports, will look for an ally in Manitoba's WAB KINEW.

— The glue of the operation: LORETTA O'CONNOR, the executive director of the 4-person Council of the Federation Secretariat that supports the premiers' collabs, has served in the role for 20 years.

She got on the horn with Playbook to discuss final preparations for this week's meetings.

→ Planning 101: O'Connor leaves the agenda, schedule, media availabilities and social events to the host premier. But her initial event planning starts about a year out when she books hotel space. (There are exceptions. O'Connor says only a single hotel in Charlottetown can accommodate the premiers, so they book that one years in advance.)

Premiers typically gather for a private dinner at the meeting's outset. That's happening tonight. Indigenous leaders are usually invited to the gathering, too. They'll be in attendance in Halifax.

→ The little details: O'Connor's crew preps the host province with a massive briefing document's worth of to-do lists. For instance, they advise the hosts to create a logo by the end of January and think about what they want to serve for dinner. (Stand by for details.)

Some of that direction comes right from the top. "The host premier is very involved in what he wants to highlight and showcase in his province," says O'Connor.

Houston's team will debrief with next year's host: Ontario Premier DOUG FORD.

→ Private time: The leaders' plenary at last week's NATO summit wasn't exactly intimate. Each president or prime minister was supported in the room by senior officials, including ministers — and by additional aides perched in a nearby "listening room."

In Halifax, the premiers have time with only each other. One room, 13 invitees, "not being filmed or monitored or taped — more free-flowing discussions," says O'Connor. "That is something that they want to have, that they find useful. Those honest, frank discussions."

→ Cellular diplomacy: O'Connor says premiers are just like everybody else.

"I'm not in the text chain, but I understand that there's a lot of texting that goes on," she says. "Texting among themselves, texting during meetings to their teams."

→ Good vibes only: Halifax will be collegial, O'Connor says, dispelling rumors of bad blood between preems.

"I get the feeling sometimes people are like, 'Oh, you know, this premier doesn't talk to this premier.' And that's definitely not the case," O'Connor says. "They're like all of us, and want to build relationships and friendships and make things work for their jurisdictions."

Have a scoop for POLITICO? Or maybe you are somebody who knows where the post-meeting party's at in Halifax? Drop your Playbook host a line . He's Nova Scotia-bound this morning and taking all invites.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events on his itinerary.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa with no public events scheduled.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released their itineraries.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH meets with tenants in Toronto's York South-Weston riding, which the NDP most recently held from 2011-2015 — but has been held by International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN ever since. At 12 p.m., Singh will speak to reporters outside of a community hub.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY has "no scheduled public engagements."

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 
WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY


— It's carbon rebate promotion week as payments land in bank accounts. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT hypes the program at a pair of stops in southwestern Ontario, alongside Liberal MP ARIELLE KAYABAGA.

Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU makes a similar announcement in Thunder Bay, Ont., while Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS is in Quebec City to talk about the province's "role as an international leader in carbon pricing and the transition towards a clean economy."

11 a.m. (9 a.m. local time) Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE will deliver a formal apology on behalf of the government of Canada to the 9 Dakota and Lakota First Nations.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

INFLATION WATCH — Tuesday brings fresh Consumer Price Index data for June. Most analysts expect inflation to rise within the Bank of Canada's target rate of 1-3 percent.

RBC predicts 2.7 percent. CIBC's tables say 2.8 percent. So does TD.

But tomorrow morning's numbers are only a precursor to the main event later this month.

— Rate watch: CPI data will feed TIFF MACKLEM's thinking on how to handle the bank's policy interest rate at his next announcement on July 24.

Macklem will also take into account the latest data from the BOC's Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Both are out today.

BMO says pegs the chance of a rate cut at 80 percent. RBC sees a 25-basis-point cut to 4.5 percent in its crystal ball.

Scotiabank's DEREK HOLT also thinks a cut is in the offing: "There is a very high bar set against Macklem not cutting again this month. The BOC is convinced that its models will work this time after a rather underwhelming performance throughout the pandemic."

MEDIA ROOM


— The Toronto Star's weekend talker: Justin Trudeau is reckoning with the decision of his political life. Here’s why few know what he will do.

— "It isn’t necessary for me to add my voice to the many thousands who have already condemned the attempted assassination of President Trump as an evil and appalling act," CONRAD BLACK writes atop a column over on The Hub.

— On "The Decibel" pod this morning: Five ways that Canada’s housing market is broken.

— And on "The Big Story" today: The rise, fall and (maybe) rise again of the Newfoundland cod fisheries.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: DST blowback ahead of trade G7.

In other news for Pro readers: 

Business groups call on Biden to halt rulemaking in light of Chevron deference decision.

Biden’s union wall is showing strains as questions swirl about his candidacy.

Court delays net neutrality from going into effect until August.

African countries push for early reappointment of WTO chief.

The conservative kidney doctor leading the push to restrict trans kids’ care.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to former MPs GILLES BERNIER, JOHN BRYDEN and STEVEN LANGDON.

HBD + 2 to Counsel Public Affairs' ELIZABETH CAMPBELL.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Movers and shakers: SANDRA MCCARDELL is moving on from Environment and Climate Change Canada to join GAC as associate deputy minister of foreign affairs … JOHN MOFFET got a promotion and will begin a new role as associate deputy minister of ECCC starting next Monday … MARK SCHAAN is leaving Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada towards the end of the month to take on a new role as deputy secretary to the Cabinet for artificial intelligence.

Several recent orders in councils confirmed reappointments to the Independent Advisory Board for Senate Appointments. CORRINE SPARKS, HEIDI JAMIESON-MILLS, ANN MCCAIN EVANS, DONALD SAVOIE have been reappointed as special advisers to the PM as ad hoc provincial members on two-year terms; while MELISSA BLAKE and FRANÇOIS ROLLAND have been reappointed on three-year terms, with HUGUETTE LABELLE as chair. The board's website doesn’t list any members representing Newfoundland and Labrador, Northwest Territories, Prince Edward Island and Yukon.

Google Canada posted June meetings with Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND, Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, ISED DM SIMON KENNEDY, PMO strategic adviser JASON EASTON, and several MPs.

BWXT Canada, a nuclear energy service provider looking for "new funding opportunities" in Canada, posted a pair of recent meetings with Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON.

TRIVIA


Friday's answer: PIERRE ELLIOTT TRUDEAU wrote this: “Travel a thousand miles by train and you are a brute; pedal five hundred on a bicycle and you remain basically a bourgeois; paddle a hundred in a canoe and you are already a child of nature.”

Props to GUY SKIPWORTH, CAMELLIA PANG, JOHN ECKER, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, DAN MCCARTHY, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, SARA MAY, ALYSON FAIR, BOB GORDON, BOB PLAMONDON, JOHN MATHESON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN MERRIMAN, MORGAN LARHANT, MALCOLM MCKAY and STEPHEN HAAS.

Today’s question: In what year did premiers hold a portion of their annual summer meeting on a moving train?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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