LAST CHANCE! GUESS WHICH BILLS WON’T SURVIVE, WIN PRIZES — On Thursday, California lawmakers will run through hundreds of bills in quick succession and announce which will (and won’t) advance from the Appropriations committees to the floor. Now’s your chance to make predictions and compete against your fellow politicos — and the Playbook authors — to guess which bills won’t survive the dreaded “suspense file.” Those with the most accurate guesses will receive a shout-out in California Playbook and some extra special swag. Remember to leave your name and email with your prediction so we can contact you if you win. Entries will close at 5 p.m. today. Winners will be announced Friday. THE BUZZ — Three years ago, JD Vance suggested divorce was not the solution to unhappy marriages, even those that involved violence. Now, a California House candidate is being asked to answer for it. Vance’s comments at a private event hosted by an Orange County high school in 2021, before he was elected Ohio senator, have become a point of contention in the race for outgoing Rep. Katie Porter’s battleground district. Democratic state Sen. Dave Min is using the vice presidential nominee’s remarks to hammer Scott Baugh, his Republican opponent, by pointing out that he is a trustee of the school that hosted Vance years ago. Now, Min's campaign is spending five figures to blast that message across the airwaves. A new ad released this morning, shared first with Playbook, features Min's wife Jane Stoever, director of UC Irvine's Domestic Violence Law Clinic, somberly describing the terrors faced by victims of domestic violence. "They've been strangled, raped, locked in their own homes, and the longer they stay, the more the violence escalates," she says in the ad. "When JD Vance told an Orange County school that women should stay in violent marriages, it scared me. For Scott Baugh to say that he's pleased Vance is the nominee — that's just plain dangerous." Baugh, in a statement to Playbook Monday, said, "Domestic violence is never acceptable, in any circumstance. I stand by victims of domestic violence and, frankly, all crime.” Although his connection to Vance’s controversial take might be tenuous, the line of attack is an early indicator of how other Democrats in swing House districts could use Vance as a cudgel against their GOP opponents — especially when it comes to winning over suburban women. Prior to the shakeup of the last few weeks, Democratic candidates in California’s swing districts had been careful when drawing attention to the top of the ticket. But now, emboldened by Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascent and Vance’s rocky rollout, Democrats are going after him with more zeal. Focusing on the VP candidate is a fairly unusual play, especially for a party that has historically found a reliable foil in Donald Trump. But Vance’s polarizing social commentary has given them fresh fodder. The party is working to tie opponents to Vance’s comments on abortion and “childless cat ladies,” along with his connection to Kevin D. Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, which authored Project 2025. Other swing-district Dems like Will Rollins, who is challenging incumbent GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in a district that includes Palm Springs, have also used Vance’s comments to needle their opponents online. “JD Vance offers no shortage of terrible takes that voters will hold against both him and his MAGA extremist friends across California — and down the ballot — this November,” said Dan Gottlieb, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In Orange County, Min has asked Baugh to denounce his previous support for Vance amid the newly-surfaced comments. The Republican disavowed domestic abuse in response, but sidestepped the VP issue, instead knocking Min for supporting a 2022 law that allows some felons to clear their criminal records. Vance’s latest comments hit on a key vulnerability for Republicans like Baugh — suburban women who mobilized following Trump's election and were key to flipping the seat to Porter in 2018. "Orange County has become competitive for Democrats in the past decade because of the gains that Democrats have made among suburban, college-educated women," said Drew Godinich, a Democratic strategist with extensive experience in California congressional races. "When [Republicans] are talking about women and women's rights the way that they have in the past 10 years, Democrats are going to make gains among the crucial blocks that we need to hold or flip these Orange County seats." Republicans have made their own attempts to drag down Democrats by questioning the integrity of VP pick Tim Walz (who is set to visit Newport Beach today), and in districts, have continued to deflect Democrats’ attacks while trying to pivot to kitchen table issues. “Dave Min's hypocritical attacks are a desperate smokescreen to distract from his own disastrous record of voting to seal domestic abusers’ felony records,” said Ben Petersen, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Orange County voters will reject Min coddling abusers while violent crime spikes because they are paying the price for his extreme soft-on-crime agenda.” GOOD MORNING. Happy Tuesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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