Dog days in the fish bowl

Aug 21, 2024

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Ottawa Playbook will not publish Aug. 26 through Sept. 2. We’ll be back to our regular schedule Tuesday, Sept. 3.

Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ It's zero hour in the high-stakes negotiations on Canada’s railways.

→ How lobbyists spent July.

→ At the DNC, Canadian ambo KIRSTEN HILLMAN talks security, AI and hip hop.

DRIVING THE DAY

A worker walks past tanker cars and locomotives at the Canadian Pacific Kansas City rail yard in Port Coquitlam, British Columbia, on Monday.

A worker walks past tanker cars and locomotives at the Canadian Pacific Kansas City rail yard in Port Coquitlam, British Columbia, on Monday. | Darryl Dyck, The Canadian Press

FREAK-OUT MODE — Tomorrow, thousands of rail workers spanning most of Canada’s rail lines could be off the job. Canadian Pacific Kansas City is negotiating with Teamsters reps in Calgary. CN is bargaining with the union in Montreal. Talks are nearing the literal last minute.

Both sides have threatened lockouts and strikes as of midnight.

Labor Minister STEVEN MACKINNON was in Montreal yesterday, and he's in Calgary today. MacKinnon insists the three parties need to hammer out a deal at the table. He has so far resisted calls for binding arbitration, and uttered not a peep about back-to-work legislation in the case of a stoppage.

“Get a deal at the table,” he urged Tuesday after meeting with his Ontario counterpart, DAVID PICCINI. “Workers, farmers, businesses and all Canadians are counting on it.”

— Industry alarm bells: A spate of high-profile post-pandemic strikes has followed a patter. When employers and employees fail to reach a resolution, legions of trade associations fight for headlines as their members imagine revenue falling into an abyss.

They bring hard data and anecdata. This week, they're out in force.

DAN KELLY of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business posted a string of worries from anonymous entrepreneurs across the land. For instance:

"We bring aviation gas by rail from Winnipeg to Toronto on a regular basis and then transport it to Ottawa and Sudbury regions. It is used in small aircraft and helicopters. In the summer season, it is essential for fighting forest fires and for helicopter use. It would be very serious if supply was not available by rail."

— Star-spangled planner: U.S. Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG said he’s "closely monitoring" negotiations.

Dozens of U.S. ag associations are urging the federal government to intervene to prevent shutdowns and slowdowns that would result from a lockout or strike. “Agriculture ships more than 25,000 cars per week and this figure will go to zero during a strike or lockout,” the U.S. groups wrote.

— By the numbers: Playbook has rounded up some data points that help to explain the boiled-over business angst. A sampling:

9,300: Approximate number of engineers, conductors and yard workers who could walk off the job (or be locked out).

40-50 percent: Share of aviation fuel used at Toronto Pearson airport that is shipped by rail, per the National Airlines Council of Canada.

96 percent: The proportion of Canadians who receive chlorinated drinking water, according to the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada — which adds that all of the country's chlorine is shipped by rail.

C$43 million: The daily cost to grain farmers in the first week of a stoppage, rising to C$50 million per day in following weeks, according to Grain Growers of Canada estimates.

32,000+: Rail commuters in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver who would need to alternate arrangements, CP reports.

C$275,000: The average manufacturer's daily lost revenue, according to Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters.

C$55 million: The daily hit to Alberta's provincial exports via MATT JONES, the province's minister of jobs, economy and trade.

69,000: Average metric tons of fertilizer shipped by rail every day, says Fertilizer Canada.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Quebec's Outaouais Region to talk up his government's dentalcare plan. Trudeau won't hold a media availability, but a pool photographer will be invited to snap photos.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Edmonton to meet with workers and business leaders at an energy facility. She'll hold a news conference at 12:15 p.m. ET.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH have not released their schedules.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY is on holiday in B.C.

DULY NOTED

Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in South Africa.

10:30 a.m. Tourism Minister SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA makes an announcement about economic development funding in Montreal.

1:15 p.m. ET (2:15 p.m. AT) Rural Economic Development Minister GUDIE HUTCHINGS announces funding for sport in Lunenburg, Nova Scotia.

2 p.m. Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and Labor Minister DAVID PICCINI will hold a press conference in St. Catharines.

4 p.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is in Montreal with plans to hold a hybrid media availability on the U.N.'s next biodiversity conference.

For your radar

HOW LOBBYISTS SPENT JULY — Hill lobbying slows to a trickle in summer. The registry that tracks meetings between lobbyists and public officials logged roughly 2.5 times more traffic during the pre-budget February frenzy than in the summer lull of July.

But it's not like no one is knocking on government doors. Last month's tally topped out at 1,687 meetings, a sum that will rise only slightly as stragglers belatedly post tête-à-têtes.

— Conversation starters: Lobbyists are required to categorize the subject of each meeting. Here's what's on their minds the most — with the number of meetings about each topic in parentheses. (Budget asks, which top out early in the year, clocked in at 11th overall.)

→ Top 10 issues:

Environment (285)
Economic development (278)
Energy (269)
Industry (267)
Taxation and finance (183)
International trade (167)
Health (165)
Climate (156)
Science and technology (138)
Infrastructure (131)

→ Top 10 orgs:

The following companies, groups and associations logged meetings with the most public office holders — aka senior bureaucrats or political staff — sometimes in one-on-ones. The parenthetical number is the total number of officials they reached:

Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities (53)
Canadian Cattle Association (36)
Restaurants Canada (34)
Suncor Energy (31)
Environmental Defence (29)
Electricity Canada (29)
Imagine Canada (27)
Heidelberg Materials (27)
Climate Action Network (27)
Canadian Nuclear Association (27)

→ Top 10 staffers and bureaucrats: No one took more meetings in July than the following individuals:

LAWRENCE HANSON, deputy minister of agriculture and agri-food (29)
CHRIS PADFIELD, assistant secretary to Cabinet for clean growth (22)
CAROLINE LEE, senior policy adviser to Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT (21)
LAUREL CHESTER, senior adviser on economic security to Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE (20)
BEN CHIN, PMO senior adviser (20)
RANDY HOBACK, Conservative MP (17)
PAUL HALUCHA, deputy secretary to the Cabinet for clean growth (17)
IAN FOUCHER, chief of staff to Champagne (17)
NIKKI HIPKIN, director of operations to Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL (16)
CHRISTA BISHOP, senior special adviser to Vandal (16)

2024 WATCH

Former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama are seen during the second night of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago on Aug. 20, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Former U.S. President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama during the second night of the Democratic National Convention. | AP

LAST NIGHT IN CHICAGO — Former U.S. President BARACK OBAMA delivered his most animated address in nearly a decade as he worked to pass his political legacy to KAMALA HARRIS while skewering DONALD TRUMP, ELI STOKOLS and JONATHAN LEMIRE report from the second night of the Democratic convention.

Declaring “the torch has been passed,” Obama lauded U.S. President JOE BIDEN while sharpening the contrast voters face between Harris and “a guy whose act has — let’s face it — gotten pretty stale.”

The New York Times credited MICHELLE OBAMA with one of the convention’s most emphatic takedowns of Trump. “Who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs’?” she asked during her address.

— From POLITICO: The best zingers from both Obama convention speeches.

Harris, meanwhile, campaigned in Milwaukee.

POLITICO’s MYAH WARD explains: “The campaign’s decision to host a prime-time rally in Milwaukee during the party’s convention in nearby Chicago demonstrates how vital Wisconsin remains in Democrats’ path to 270 electoral votes.”

Three U.S. ambassadors speaks onstage at the CNN-POLITICO Grill.

POLITICO's Paul McLeary speaks with British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Estonian Ambassador Kristjan Prikk and Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman at the CNN-POLITICO Grill at the 2024 DNC Convention. | Rod Lamkey Jr. for POLITICO

AMBO CHECK-IN — KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Canada's envoy in Washington, talked security, AI and hip hop on an ambassadors panel Tuesday at the CNN-POLITICO Grill.

Defense reporter PAUL MCLEARY quizzed Hillman, Estonia's KRISTJAN PRIKK and the U.K.'s KAREN PIERCE on shared issues for NATO members.

— Continuity: HIllman told the crowd that she expected a potential KAMALA HARRIS administration to broadly stay the course on Canada-U.S. relations, but noted the vice president's "different emphasis" compared to JOE BIDEN over nearly four years.

The veep has shown an interest in security across the Western hemisphere, Hillman said, as well as continental security and, even more specifically, NATO's presence in the Arctic.

Hillman has also observed Harris' interest in tech and AI issues — complex files with huge opportunity and risks that "cross over" with defense and security priorities.

— Trivial trivia: After Pierce mentioned her invitation to a Harris-hosted party to celebrate 50 years of hip hop, McLeary asked Hillman for her Canadian rap reccos for the veep.

"There is quite a famous beef that happened over the summer that I don't want to get into because it's a cross-border sore point," she joked, alluding to the DRAKE/KENDRICK LAMAR conflict that a Rolling Stone writer dismissed as "such a colossal waste of energy."

The beef has come up a few times in conversation with House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES. Hillman said her sons have coached her on the material.

— Spotted in Chicago: Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET, who was interviewed by The Canadian Press.

Here's today's lineup at the CNN-POLITICO Grill:

4:30 p.m. ET: New York City Mayor ERIC ADAMS, Atlanta Mayor ANDRE DICKENS and Chicago Mayor BRANDON JOHNSON in conversation with Global Playbook author SUZANNE LYNCH.

5:30 p.m. ET: Acting Housing and Urban Development Secretary ADRIANNE TODMAN in conversation with economics correspondent VICTORIA GUIDA.

5:50 p.m. ET: Rep. SUZAN DELBENE (D-Wash.), head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in conversation with senior congressional reporter SARAH FERRIS.

7:15 p.m. ET: Sen. TINA SMITH (D-Minn.) in conversation with Playbook co-author RACHAEL BADE.

7:30 p.m. ET: Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO in conversation with global editor-in-chief JOHN HARRIS.

MEDIA ROOM

— FT and The Guardian beat Canadian reporters to the news that Export Development Canada reportedly suffered heavy losses on loans involving the U.K. utility Thames Water.

— In The Walrus, RACHEL BROWNE tells the troubled story of Robert Land Academy, a boarding school in Ontario's Niagara region. (Conservative MP ARPAN KHANNA formerly sat on the academy's board of governors. He departed in January.)

— From CBC News: Officials didn't need Treasury Board approval to buy C$9 million New York City apartment, committee told

— The Ottawa Citizen's DAVID PUGLIESE reveals the senior management buy-in for that bizarre Canadian Army icon unveiled earlier this year.

— The Logic’s JESSE SNYDER obtained a document that suggests the PM downplayed potential for East Coast LNG despite Global Affairs touting benefits.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Canada's new labor minister enters rail fray.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Specter of Trump’s return forces the EU to get real on trade.

— Elon Musk’s Tesla gets lower EU duties on made-in-China EVs.

— Q&A: The Nuclear Co.’s bold vision to build big reactors.

— OPEC charity gives millions to protect nations from climate damage.

— Germany ties itself to Taiwan on chips. It comes with risks.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to CTV National News chief anchor OMAR SACHEDINA and Hydro-Québec VP GRAHAM FOX.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way.

Spotted: Conservative MP KELLY MCCAULEY, taking time at the top of Tuesday’s House OGGO meeting to pay tribute to three former MPs who recently died: MARLENE CATTERALL, CHUCK STRAHL and JOHN WILLIAMS.

McCauley credited the trio with work on a report in the House procedure committee that inspired the creation of the House Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates — in McCauley’s words: “The mighty OGGO.”

Conservative MP COREY TOCHOR, delivering a glass sugar bowl and creamer that belonged to the Diefenbakers to the Diefenbaker Canada Centre at the University of Saskatchewan.

Abacus pollster DAVID COLETTO, surveying the country for impressions of JORDAN PETERSON … U.S. Embassy Ottawa, lit up in rainbow colors.

Movers and shakers: Aspiring Conservative candidate ANDREW LAWTON scored the endorsement of former CPC leadership candidate ROMAN BABER.

The National Council of Canadian Muslims posted a meeting with Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI and his chief of staff, LISA JØRGENSEN. The stated subject matter: "Canadian Human Rights Act and Online Hate, respecting the repealed section 13 of the CHRA and opening the Act for legislative review."

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

— The House government operations and estimates committee will reconvene at 11 a.m. to continue its study of the purchase of a C$9 million condo for the consul general in New York. The federal government listed the envoy’s old residence for C$13 million; the proceeds could exceed the cost of the new digs.

— The House international trade committee will gather at 2 p.m. to debate the need for a study on the protection of Canada’s manufacturing sector against Chinese imports.

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer: It was 1984 when former Canadian ambassador in Washington ALLAN GOTLIEB wrote this in his personal diary: "It's hard for me to believe that the Republican and Democratic Conventions were held in the same country…”

Props to GUY SKIPWORTH, JOHN MERRIMAN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN DILLON and MALCOLM MCKAY.

Wednesday’s question: Which U.S. president spilled soup down his vest during an official dinner with a Canadian prime minister? Hint: According to one biographer, this POTUS considered his Ottawa counterpart "intelligent but frivolous."

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Follow us on Twitter