Four words and one big cut

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Aug 23, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross

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THE CATCH-UP

HAPPENING SHORTLY — At 2 p.m. Eastern, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. will speak in Phoenix, Arizona, delivering an address in which he’s widely expected to drop out of the presidential race. The question now: Will he stop there or endorse DONALD TRUMP? 

We may get a definitive answer later today. At 4 p.m. Eastern, Trump will hold a rally a few miles away in Glendale, and his campaign has said that the former president will be joined by an unnamed “special guest” — though if last night is any indication, the special guests who show up aren’t always the special guests everyone anticipates. More from the AP

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 31: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes a question from a reporter at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. Powell spoke to members of the media after the Federal Reserve held short-term   interest rates where they are with broad expectations that the rate with drop in September.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled this morning that an interest rate cut is on the way. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

FED UP — “The time has come.”

Those four words, from Fed Chair JEROME POWELL this morning, are the signal that the world was waiting for as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates, confident that inflation is tamed.

Powell’s goal now: safeguarding the job market amid signs that it is slowing, Victoria Guida writes from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The context: “His speech marks a striking turning point after the U.S. economy was battered by the worst price spikes in four decades starting in early 2021 — and then by the Fed’s interest rate hikes the following year as it aimed to bring inflation to heel. Now, inflation has fallen below 3 percent, close to the Fed’s target, and the unemployment rate is slowly ticking up from modern-era lows, giving policymakers confidence that they can start to ease off on the economy.”

The stakes: “His pronouncements come just months away from a presidential election, with heavy significance for both major party candidates: Whoever wins will inherit an economy where inflation is no longer the primary concern.”

Related read: “Why Jackson Hole Is the Fed’s Biggest Shindig,” by NYT’s Jeanna Smialek

Kamala Harris speaks onstage in front of a crowd of people holding Kamala sign and American flags.

Democrats are hoping to spin their convention momentum into the general election. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

NURSING THE HANGOVER — Democrats are leaving Chicago and their convention with bleary eyes after a weeklong coronation for VP KAMALA HARRIS with hopes that their surging candidate can topple a formidable reelection run by Trump.

As we wrote this morning, the general election sprint is now officially on — but taking stock of this week will be important for Democrats as they enter the home stretch. A handful of stories up this morning capture the dynamic:

— A campaign or a movement? Michael Kruse examines the question that could be the defining theme of the election and whether Harris can pull off a victory: “From the United Center to the convention center to the ballrooms and halls of the delegate-housing hotels, from stages to caucus meetings to the roster of wee-hours parties, people were using a word loaded with historical weight. Is Harris already or can she be, people were asking, not only a candidate for president but actually, and rather remarkably, the leader of a political movement?”

— The backstory to this moment: NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright is up with a download on what this week meant to Black women leaders in the party, who see Harris’ rise as a “result of generations of hard work, but also as a pathway to more.”

Wright also elicits this interesting anecdote from Rep. JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) on Biden’s exit: “When JOE BIDEN called me that morning, read me his statement, I said to him at the time, ‘There’s something missing in this statement.’ And he knew what I meant. And he said to me at the time, ‘I will be issuing a second statement within the hour.’ And that was the statement endorsing her,” Clyburn told NOTUS.

— The “new normal”: WSJ’s Molly Ball sums how Harris is defining the “new normal” in the race: “Harris’s banner address to the nation at the conclusion of this week’s Democratic convention was a bracingly normal, workmanlike political speech, one intended to communicate not shattering emotion but earthly gravitas. There were notes of optimism and paeans to the middle class, invocations of timeless ordeals and attacks on extremism.

“A traditional appeal intended to communicate steadiness and trust, delivered evenly before a courtroom-like backdrop of wood paneling and American flags. There were few moments of poetry, just a 59-year-old woman telling a curious nation where she came from and what she hopes to achieve: simple, relatable, without celebrity or glitz.”

Reality check: The NYT checks in with a group of undecided voters about how they viewed Harris’ speech: “Outside the arena, and outside the bubble of ride-or-die Democratic voters, some voters, particularly Republicans, said they did not even bother to watch the speech. And among some still on the fence — those who could make a difference in a tight contest — Ms. Harris’s words did not make immediate converts. They said they needed more specifics.”

Clicker: David Hume Kennerly captures the “Vibe Shift at the Democratic Convention” for POLITICO Mag with a photo essay from Chicago, with words by Calder McHugh

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Programming note: This newsletter will be off starting on Monday through Labor Day. We’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday, Sept. 3. Playbook will still publish every morning. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

 

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6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) arrives to speak during the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago Aug. 19, 2024.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's star turn at the convention this week was a notable moment for the New York Democrat. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

1. AOC’S LEFT HOOK: One of the notable subplots out of the DNC was the culmination of Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ’s embrace of the Democratic establishment and its bear hug in return, Nick Reisman writes. It was evident in the New Yorker’s prime-time speaking slot during Monday’s opening lineup, where she excoriated Trump as a “two-bit union buster,” revving up the raucous crowd, and delivered the most visible progressive blessing for Harris on the stage this week.

“The speech electrified delegates — and earned Ocasio-Cortez the begrudging admiration of Democratic leaders, who are now starting to speculate about her political future. Ocasio-Cortez’s evolution reflects mainline Democrats’ acknowledgment that she is among the party’s most celebrated stars, and comes as their platform has been nudged leftward by her fellow progressives to reflect populist economic themes.”

2. THE GHOST OF 2022 LOOMS: New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL pushed back this morning against Rep. NANCY PELOSI’s (D-Calif.) suggestion that the governor’s weakness at the top of the ticket in the Empire State in 2022 cost Democrats a majority in the U.S. House. Speaking to JMart at the DNC yesterday, Pelosi blamed Hochul’s closer-than-expected victory as the reason Republicans flipped four Democratic-held seats in the state. In an appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” today, Hochul was asked about Pelosi’s summation, to which she flatly replied: “I don’t agree with that.”

More from Hochul: “I’ll tell you this, no governor in the history of the state of New York has worked harder to elect members of Congress than I have. We are going to win this on the ground because I know how to do this. I now have the chance to focus on this. … We’re going to win these races and win strong.” More from Isabella Ramírez

3. FOR WHOM THE ALARM BELL TOLLS: Despite the “renewed optimism” that Harris has brought to Democrats, there is also a growing “concern among some that the newly competitive race will invite election interference” as Trump “has said that the only way Democrats can win this fall is by cheating” and declined to commit to accepting the result if he loses, WaPo’s Amy Gardner and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez write.

“Democratic election officials and nonpartisan democracy advocates gathered in Chicago this week to assess the threat — and to explain what they are doing to address it. Their greatest worry, several said at an event hosted by the Brennan Center for Justice, is the possibility of civil unrest. Even if efforts to subvert election results fail, they said, an army of angry Trump supporters could resort to violence just as they did at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.”

 

CHECK OUT WHAT YOU MISSED IN CHICAGO! On Thursday, POLITICO and Bayer convened four conversations at the CNN-POLITICO Grill at the DNC. The program featured Bayer’s Senior Vice President, Head of Crop Science and Sustainability Communications, Jessica Christiansen, as well as conversations with Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) about agriculture, food policy and how these issues will impact the November election. CATCH UP HERE.

 
 

4. TRUMP INC.: “Trump’s businesses are raking in millions of dollars from Republican political campaigns – including his own,” by CNN’s Casey Tolan, Isabelle Chapman and Nelli Black: “With glitzy Mar-a-Lago fundraisers, stays at Trump’s hotels, and flights on the former president’s private jet, Republican candidates and political groups are on track to spend more on Trump’s businesses this year than any year since 2016, according to a CNN analysis of federal campaign finance data.

“Trump himself has been the biggest spender, both this year and over the last decade. Between his three presidential campaigns, Trump and associated political groups have funneled more than $28 million in campaign donations to his businesses – helping convert the enthusiasm of his political supporters into personal profit.”

5. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN is set to travel to Beijing next week for meetings with top Chinese officials, “as Washington seeks to reinforce lines of communication with its foremost adversary and worries mount about Chinese interference in the U.S. election,” Eric Bazail-Eimil writes. Sullivan’s trip will also be the first visit from a national security adviser to mainland China since the Obama administration.

“A senior administration official, who briefed reporters about Sullivan’s trip on condition that they not be named, said that the timing of the visit is not pegged to the election, but rather came down to scheduling issues on both sides. The two officials are expected to discuss a litany of issues, including tensions in the South China Sea, China’s growing cooperation with Russia, and conflict in the Middle East.” The stated objective of these engagements “is about clearing up misperceptions and avoiding this competition from veering into conflict.”

Related read: “Why China Is Starting a New Trade War,” by WSJ’s Lingling Wei and Jason Douglas

6. RENT REVIEW: “U.S. Accuses Software Maker RealPage of Enabling Collusion on Rents,” by NYT’s Lauren Hirsch, Danielle Kaye and David McCabe: “The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit on Friday against the real estate software company RealPage, alleging its software enabled landlords to collude to raise rents across the United States. The suit, joined by North Carolina, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota, Oregon, Tennessee and Washington, accuses RealPage of facilitating a price-fixing conspiracy that boosted rents beyond market forces for millions of people. It’s the first major civil antitrust lawsuit where the role of an algorithm in pricing manipulation is central to the case, Justice Department officials said.”

 

DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Kyrsten Sinema is apparently in the market for some new athleisure wear.

IN MEMORIAM — “Dennis E. Whitfield, 76, who served as both Deputy U.S. Trade Representative and Deputy Secretary of Labor during the Reagan Administration, died unexpectedly of an apparent heart attack on Sunday, August 18. A native of Albany, Georgia, Whitfield was a long-time fixture in Republican politics and public affairs issues in Washington, D.C. He served as U.S. Deputy Secretary of Labor from 1985-88 during which time the Department put forward the highly praised Workforce 2000, a template outlining what the United States needed to do to educate and train a workforce capable of competing in the 21st Century.” Read the full obituary, written by Bill Greener III, with help from Charlie Black and Linda Whitfield

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED yesterday at a day party hosted by the Black Girl Magic Network and Nation Strategies, where congressional members, media personalities, influencers, administration figures and campaign staff gathered to honor Black congressional leadership at the DNC: Reps. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) and Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, Kii Arens, Gina Belafonte, Wesley Bell, Steve Benjamin, Jamal Bryant, LaDavia Drane, Maia Hunt Estes, Shomari Figures, Lisa Jackson, Moyer McCoy, LaMonica McIver, Heather Podesta, Nicole Venable and Yebbie Watkins.

TRANSITION — Elle Whitson is joining Novocure as director of US federal government affairs. She most recently was chief of staff for House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and is a House Energy & Commerce alum.

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