| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey |
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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → Time is running short for a Cabinet shuffle. → Alberta's DANIELLE SMITH on the collective power of premiers. → Consultations, consultations everywhere. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | |
THE SHUFFLING HOUR — It wouldn't be the dog days without whispers of a shakeup on JUSTIN TRUDEAU's front bench. August is for laundered gossip. These are the rules.
So indulge us in the scuttlebutt. You know you wanna. — Shrinking window: If Trudeau's inner circle is currently moving around magnets on a whiteboard in anticipation of a Cabinet reset, they've left themselves scant space on the calendar for a swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall. There are any number of reasons to refresh the frontline troops: policy reset, pre-election planning, and/or replacing soon-to-retire ministers with newbies. Ministers head to Halifax for a Cabinet retreat Aug. 25-27. That leaves little more than a week to fly everybody to Ottawa for a swearing-in — and even less time for departmental briefers to bring the shuffled up to speed. — Scope and scale: Shuffles don't come much simpler than the switcheroo in which STEVEN MACKINNON replaced former Labor and Seniors Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN. When O'Regan announced he was leaving Cabinet for family reasons, the backfill was easy peasy. MacKinnon, who had joined Cabinet as House Leader while KARINA GOULD was on parental leave, slid into the empty labor spot as she returned. If Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ chases his heavily rumored provincial ambition to the Quebec Liberal leadership race, the musical chairs could get complicated quickly. Rodriguez is the PM's Quebec lieutenant, a key adviser in a province that always receives special attention, and his portfolio is substantial. What if the PM replaces him with an experienced and/or ambitious non-Quebecer? Would he dare reduce the number of Quebecers in Cabinet? Who’d get the call as new Quebec lieutenant? Rookie MP ANNA GAINEY, a personal friend of Trudeau with several months under her belt in the House of Commons, is an easy pick for armchair speculators. But gossip doesn't make her a lock. → The X-Factor: Cabinet ministers who aren't running again. How many have confided to the PM that they plan to move on from politics? The answer may be revealed in the size of the shuffle. Trudeau could elevate more up-and-comers to get their feet wet before the next election. But anyone dropped from Cabinet leaves another seat to fill, guided by the prime minister's commitment to gender balance — and all the regional/demographic diversity typical in Cabinet-building. Suddenly, the whiteboard magnets start to fly. — The pundit consensus: There isn't one. Some predict a small shuffle because the Great Reset of 2023 didn't move the polling dial. Others view a mega-shuffle as essential for a government with few opportunities to freshen up its pre-election front bench. → What is for certain: Anybody who knows how the shuffle will play isn't talking. The whiteboard is sacrosanct. → The exception that proves the rule: When the first strategic leak drops, all bets are off. Keep an eye out for government sources familiar with the prime minister's thinking who aren't authorized to speak publicly — aka the insiders who want to control the spin. — Countdown is on: 10 days until the Halifax retreat formally gets underway. | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in "southwest Nova Scotia" for National Acadian Day. He'll deliver remarks at a concert at 8 p.m. local time. The World Acadian Congress is hosting an evening concert in Yarmouth.*
*The PMO has lately been revealing midday updates to his daily itinerary. Wednesday started off with no scheduled public events in the National Capital Region. An afternoon tweak pointed to the PM's "surprise appearance" at a Sudbury caucus meeting of Ontario MPs. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Sudbury to attend the Ontario Caucus meeting. — Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET will hold a press conference in the House of Commons foyer at 1:30 p.m. to discuss his meeting with WANG DI, China’s ambassador to Canada. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Moncton, New Brunswick. He’ll be joined by NDP candidates SERGE LANDRY (Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe) and DON PAULIN (Saint John-Rothesay). At 12:15 p.m. local time, they will meet with the Public Service Alliance of Canada—Greater Moncton Area Council. At 4:30 p.m., they will head to MusiquArt Site to celebrate National Acadian Day. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE was in Halifax, Nova Scotia, last evening for a fundraiser at a private residence. On Friday, he’ll be at the Diamond Jubilee Cruise Terminal in Saint John, New Brunswick, for another fundraiser. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Sidney, British Columbia, where at 7 a.m. local time she will attend the Rotary Club of Sidney by the Sea. She’ll also attend a virtual citizenship ceremony for constituents. Later in the day, she will attend the Thursday Street Market. | | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | |
| | For your radar | | | | 
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, shown here at the G7, is heading to Sudbury today. | Antonio Calanni/AP | SUMMER CONSULT — The Finance Department is consulting on Budget 2024. No, not Budget 2025. There's still, apparently, work to be done on the particulars of CHRYSTIA FREELAND's April budget. Freeland's department is asking for submissions on 19 "key budget priorities" under four themes: "build more homes, boost economic growth, improve tax fairness, and ensure Canada’s financial sector works for all Canadians." — Open call: Government consultations often pose specific questions meant to guide stakeholders' submissions. This exercise has no such constraints, only policy bullet points. Have any thoughts on, for example, "removing the GST for co-operative housing built for the long-term rental market" or "ensuring Canadians who rent a home are not held responsible for their non-resident landlords’ unpaid taxes"? Send 'em to consultation-legislation@fin.gc.ca by Sept. 11. Unless they're related to the controversial changes to the capital gains inclusion rate or lifetime capital gains exemption. The deadline for that consultation is Sept. 3. → Bureaucratese alert: Some policies get their own email addresses. Submissions on anti-predatory lending measures, for example, should be directed to the respectfully bilingual consultationconsumeraffairs.consultationconsommation@fin.gc.ca, which clocks in at 62 characters. → Eyes on '25: The House finance committee has moved its attention to next year's budget. The committee's deadline for 2025 pre-budget submissions passed on Aug. 2. Soon, hundreds of carefully crafted briefs will fill this space. — Elsewhere in callouts: Trade Minister MARY NG is on the lookout for feedback on economic security — specifically, on "potentially strengthening measures to advance Canada’s economic security and supply chain resilience in the context of global economic and trade challenges, such as protectionist and non-market policies and practices by other countries and other forms of economic threats or coercion." Deadline: Sept. 23. → Don't be confused: "This consultation is separate from the consultation on potential policy responses to unfair Chinese trade practices in electric vehicles which concluded on August 1," reads the Aug. 9 invitation to participate. — Crimebusters: The feds have also launched consultations on "innovative solutions to combat vehicle theft" that run until Sept. 25. Sound familiar? Transport Canada recently closed submissions on "updating Canada’s theft protection options for new vehicles." — Also: Global Affairs invited views Wednesday on "Canada’s approach to partnerships in Africa," which is definitely not the same thing as a 2023 consultation on "a proposed economic cooperation strategy with Africa." | | 2024 WATCH | | | | 
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a rally in Michigan on Aug. 7. | Carlos Osorio/AP | Today’s best POLITICO reads on the U.S. campaign: — STEVEN SHEPARD, POLITICO’s senior campaigns and elections editor, reveals five numbers to watch, beyond the horserace, to understand the real state of the race. — MEREDITH LEE HILL reports that grocery price gouging will feature prominently in Harris’ economic plan. — A vice presidential debate may be coming to fruition after all, POLITICO’s KIERRA FRAZIER reports. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ has publicly agreed to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS News on Oct. 1 in New York City. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) has not yet responded on whether or not he will be attending. — In related reading from Mother Jones: Ahead of DONALD TRUMP’s afternoon presser in New Jersey today, MICHAEL MECHANIC serves up 22 questions worth asking. | | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | |
GO IT TOGETHER — Alberta's premiers never shy away from a fight with Ottawa.
DANIELLE SMITH has followed the blueprint: Take feds to court, lash out at meddling federal ministers, scream “get off our lawn” at will. This summer, Smith experimented with a different approach as she huddled with premiers in Halifax. Forget those eastern “bums” in the nation's capital, goes the idea. Who needs 'em? — Stick together: "We're a force in our own right," Smith told Playbook on the sidelines of the July meetings. "We didn't call for a first ministers' meeting this time like we normally do. Rather than invite the federal government to continue to invade our jurisdiction, let's see if there are ways we can collaborate with each other to achieve some of our mutual goals." — Stand out: Smith accused the federal government of abandoning a leadership role on the world stage. Provinces, she said, are happy to fill that void. "This is a very powerful leadership group. We represent every Canadian, and we all have different perspectives," Smith said. "We all have relationships internationally and with our American counterparts. If the federal government is going to abdicate its role in being forceful and pushing Canada out on the world stage, we can take on some of that role." | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— Lawyer and author MAUREEN MCTEER takes on a timely topic on The Honest Talk, a website led by JENNIFER STEWART and McTeer’s daughter, CATHERINE CLARK.
“DEI (short for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) is all the rage these days,” she writes. “It is used to mean positive affirmative action by some and as a mean put-down by others who can’t believe they have to compete in this life.” — Concordia’s FENWICK MCKELVEY tells STUART BENSON of The Hill Times that last week’s rudimentary “bot campaign” should be a wake-up call. — On The Hub, KIRK LAPOINTE looks at some “serious and surprising” questions about Vancouver Mayor KEN SIM and his ABC (A Better City) Party. — Economist CHARLES ST-ARNAUD of Alberta Central tells Global News: It’s not a recession, but a “me-cession.” Reporter CRAIG LORD explains the thesis: “While the abstract Canadian economy is largely holding up under the weight of slowing growth and restrictive interest rates, individual households are not getting ahead.” — “Is Canada’s critical-minerals strategy a green shift or greenwashing?” SOPHIE THÉRIAULT and THIERRY RODON share their thoughts with Policy Options. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Sen. MOHAMED-IQBAL RAVALIA, Enterprise Canada VP LAURA D'ANGELO and CBC News digital senior producer MICHAEL WOODS.
Greetings also to former deputy premier of Manitoba ROSANN WOWCHUK and former Conservative MP DAVID ANDERSON. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: MARK MULRONEY, appealing on X for more Canadian content: “Yes our ‘neighbor’ to the south is extremely important but we have our own massive issues,” he posted. Cabmin STEVE MACKINNON, with Newfoundland and Labrador Premier ANDREW FUREY. Movers and shakers: Lobbyist registry records show AARON WUDRICK getting his feet wet as PIERRE POILIEVRE's policy director. Wudrick met recently with Suncor, the Canadian Gas Association and Facebook Canada. Media mentions: The Walrus is accepting applications for the 2024 TD Fellowship on Disability and Inclusion. The 900 CHML radio station in Hamilton has ceased operations. Mayor ANDREA HORWATH called the loss of the city’s largest radio news station a staggering loss to the community. In memoriam: Former Conservative Cabinet minister CHUCK STRAHL has died at the age of 67. "Our loss is deep and profound," his son, Conservative MP MARK STRAHL, wrote on X. "Our Dad was our best friend, our greatest defender, our biggest promoter and our rock." — Former Cabmin JOHN BAIRD posted: “He was among the most honourable, decent & respectable people I have ever met. Beyond his integrity — his good nature & infectious humour will be missed.” — SARAH ELDER of Madame Premier shared: “Chuck Strahl was and always will be a legend in Chilliwack and Fraser Valley politics. He inspired many, many young people in politics including me.” — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE said: “Chuck's unwavering commitment to our movement and his deep love for Canada were part of everything he did. He was a man of principle, integrity, and compassion, and a foundational member of our Conservative Party.” We're collecting remembrances of Chuck Strahl for Friday morning's Playbook. Drop us a line.
| | PROZONE | |
Don’t miss our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from ARI HAWKINS and SUE ALLAN: Ng calls lumber tariffs ‘baseless and unfair.’
In other headlines for Pros: — Project 2025 policies would erase Biden’s climate gains, report finds. — Climate change worsened last year’s wildfire season. — Europe’s southerners want Brussels to save them from climate change. — Inside Tim Walz’s not-quite-green record in Congress. — Vineyard Wind resumes partial construction after blade break. | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | |
10 a.m. Liberal MP SOPHIE CHATEL will visit Qeen Biotechnologies in Gatineau, Quebec, with a Canada Economic Development contribution for the bacteriophage manufacturer.
2:30 p.m. (3:30 p.m. AT) Prince Edward Island Fisheries Minister CORY DEAGLE and Canada’s Fisheries Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER will co-chair a meeting of the Canadian Council of Fisheries and Aquaculture Ministers at the Delta Charlottetown. On their agenda: “The sustainable economic growth of Canada's fish and seafood sector, climate change, aquaculture, and aquatic invasive species.” | | TRIVIA | |
Wednesday’s answer: In 2018's "Right Here, Right Now," STEPHEN HARPER recommended DONALD TRUMP's "The Art of the Deal" as "not a bad place to start" for anybody engaging in any type of negotiation.
Props to ROBERT MCDOUGALL and PATRICK DION. And a tip of the hat to GEOFFREY CHAMBERS and SARAH GABRIELLE BARON, who also answered Tuesday’s question correctly. Today’s question: A monument to which Grammy-winning Canadian artist sits outside the National Arts Centre? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
