SAVVY SQUAD STRATEGY Ilhan Omar is expected to win her primary Tuesday, despite an incredibly close call just two years ago. She has a savvier campaign operation to thank for it. There was reason for concern, initially. Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels came surprisingly close to knocking Omar off last cycle, and came back for a rematch this year. And the Minnesota Democrat’s fellow “Squad” members Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) lost their primaries earlier this summer, plagued by their own liabilities but also facing a mountain of outside spending from groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. But even though she’s taken many of the same policy positions as her progressive colleagues on Israel, the Minnesota Democrat dramatically outraised Samuels this cycle. She also stridently responded to his attacks, including with early ad spending, and shored up relationships among her base. It didn’t hurt that Omar picked up an early endorsement from House Democratic leadership, either. So, if Omar pulls off a win, her victory could help provide a template for other progressives trying to stave off primary challenges, including those backed by pro-Israel groups like AIPAC. Minnesota Democratic-Farm-Labor Party Chair Ken Martin summed up why Omar was in a better position than other Squad members: “Our party’s endorsed her, and she has the support of all of our elected officials here in Minnesota. The reality is: Minneapolis is arguably one of, if not the most, progressive cities in the nation.” “It just doesn't make sense to invest a lot here, particularly when you have other opportunities, including obviously Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush, where they were successful,” he said of pro-Israel groups like AIPAC. Other items in Omar’s favor: Almost none of the factors that helped Samuels to close the gap last cycle are a part of this year’s race, some due to Omar’s positioning and others due to the national environment. Two years ago, he caught Omar somewhat flat-footed, as she wasn’t expecting a competitive primary challenger. He tried to hitch her to the “Defund the Police” movement and benefited from outside spending by AIPAC, though nowhere near the monster sums the group spent to defeat Bush and Bowman this year. This time, AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups haven’t directly intervened in the race, and conversations around reducing policing have faded. Plus, Democrats rallied behind her after House Republicans voted to kick her off the House Foreign Affairs Committee last year. “We are feeling excited about our chances to win on Tuesday. In Minnesota, we believe in the power of organizing for our progressive values,” Omar said in a statement to us. Additionally, Samuels has courted controversy this campaign, including by making comments that seemingly targeted Omar’s appearance. And this cycle, he only had $334,382 cash on hand as of the end of June, compared to Omar’s over $1.8 million. Internal polling from the Omar campaign has her with a commanding lead, too. He said he believed he would pull out a victory this time in an interview with us, saying he gained some confidence from watching other Squad member losses — though he bemoaned the lack of outside support. “More outside support would have helped us,” he said. “In reality, we survived without it, thrived without it, and are going to win without it. But mentally, we felt vulnerable.” Still, most Democrats don’t agree, seeing Omar as well-positioned to win. Whoever wins the primary will cruise through the general election. President Joe Biden won the seat handily in 2020. Other primaries we’re watching: There’s a cold proxy war between progressive and centrist wings of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin’s Third District, where small business owner Rebecca Cooke and state Rep. Katrina Shankland are vying to face Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) in November. And in Wisconsin’s Eighth District, three Republicans are facing off to succeed Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.). Former President Donald Trump has endorsed businessman Tony Wied. For more, Madison Fernandez has you covered. — Nicholas Wu, with an assist from Daniella Diaz and Madison Fernandez GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Aug. 13, where we’re not hating on Columbus, Ohio (or Arlington).
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