A break from the losing streak

Sep 23, 2024

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In today's edition:

→ The safest room in Canada for a Trudeau Liberal.

→ Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has a date with STEPHEN COLBERT.

→ They're off to the races in British Columbia's provincial election.

DRIVING THE DAY

RALLY TIME — High-profile Liberals weren't exactly running away from Montreal after losing a high-stakes by-election in what's supposed to be a fortress city, and then a senior Cabinet minister who senses success elsewhere.

The safest space for a Trudeauite over the weekend appeared to be the St. James Theatre, a former bank building in Old Montreal that once housed offices of the White Star Line.

That's where the Canada 2020/CAP Action Fund Global Progress Action Summit hyped center-left movements in more than a dozen Western countries. Panel after panel devised blueprints to beat a powerful global right wing.

Liberals surrounded themselves with progressive momentum overseas and south of the border. As they reckon with a foreboding future closer to home, this was a schmoozy check-in, complete with discreet huddles on the sidelines.

In other words: a break from the losing streak.

— State of ship: The global progress crew lunched Saturday in a space where the iconic White Star cruise line set up shop more than a century ago.

The venue's website plays up the history that surrounded them: "Up to 50 tickets for the Titanic were once sold in this very room!"

Of all the ships on all the seas. Karma just won't leave this party alone.

— Tough love: TONJE BRENNA, the deputy leader of the Norwegian Labour Party, inspired a lot of nodding heads as she urged the room to think differently about problem solving.

"People … don't wake up in the morning and think, 'I'm a liberal on migration,' or 'I'm a conservative on migration.' People wake up in the morning and think, 'I'm going to go through with my day. What are my main issues today? Is it a problem that my son goes to a class where nobody speaks Norwegian? Of course it is,'" Brenna said.

"Migration is a practical issue to people, but we tend to make it a moral issue. We need to stop making practical problems moral issues, and solve people's practical problems."

→ One more thought: Think about PIERRE POILIEVRE's rise in the polls as you read Brenna's thinking on the dynamics at play in Norway.

"The people in our country, they feel like the right-wing parties describe better their lives and their worries than we do. And we still think that because it's the right-wing parties who describe it, the perception is wrong. Well, it's not. It's the people's perception."

— Stage chatter: Nobel winner MARIA RESSA spoke about the perils of misinformation in a 30-minute back-and-forth with Liberal MP ANNA GAINEY. Liberal economic adviser and wearer of many hats MARK CARNEY got into the weeds on the low-carbon future. CHRYSTIA FREELAND acknowledged that Western incumbents are in tough these days.

Friday's sessions weren't open to media or livestreamed, but most of Saturday's panels were live on YouTube.

— Trudeau unplugged: For the second day in a row, the prime minister spoke off the cuff in an armchair Montreal setting.

On Friday, an almost giddy Trudeau riffed about artificial intelligence beside YOSHUA BENGIO, one of the godfathers of AI. (We learned that PMJT's early AI reading list included ISAAC ASIMOV and ROBERT A. HEINLEIN.)

At Saturday's summit, a comfortable Trudeau leaned into his conversation with PATRICK GASPARD, the head of the Center for American Progress. The PM even cracked a joke about Canada's credit rating looking rosier than the American outlook.

This was a happy place far from the naysayers on the Hill.

— A family reunion: Trudeau-era leading lights past and present, as well as various observers of the idea-fest, gathered for receptions and two days of panels.

Spotted in the rooms: KATIE TELFORD, GERRY BUTTS, MARCO MENDICINO, MARC MILLER, BRAEDEN CALEY, SUPRIYA DWIVEDI, DIAMOND ISINGER, SIMON BEAUCHEMIN, KEVIN BOSCH, ZITA ASTRAVAS, TERRY BEECH, ELDER MARQUES, MATHIEU BOUCHARD, BRETT THALMANN, MIKE MCNAIR, ALIK ANGALADIAN, ALEX STEINHOUSE, ASHLEY CSANADY, LIAM ROCHE, IAN CAMERON, SARAH GOODMAN, KARIM BARDEESY, MICHAEL WERNICK.

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A message from Flip the Switch:

Canada’s national railways are playing an unfair game of Monopoly with Canadian grain farmers. However, the Flip the Switch campaign is here to fight back on behalf of the sector and Canada’s economy. Stay tuned this week as we myth-bust claims by the railways, while also highlighting how Canadians are losing at this game of Monopoly. Learn more.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in New York City. He'll meet Haitian PM GARRY CONILLE, speak at the High-Level Meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Council Ad Hoc Advisory Group on Haiti, meet with Nobel winner MALALA YOUSAFZAI and attend a working lunch hosted by German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa with plans to attend QP.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend QP.

— At 2:15 p.m., Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will deliver a keynote at the Digital Justice Summit at the National Arts Centre, organized by the National Council of Canadian Muslims.

— Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE or Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

DULY NOTED

12 p.m. In West Block, NDP MPs HEATHER MCPHERSON and ALEXANDRE BOULERICE will call on the Liberals to "take action to promote peace and justice for Israelis and Palestinians, including the recognition of Palestinian statehood, imposing sanctions on the Netanyahu administration and imposing a two-way arms embargo on Israel."

6:30 p.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Ottawa Centre MP YASIR NAQVI co-headline a party fundraiser at Beckta on Elgin Street.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

THE BIG APPLE — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has bought himself a week away from a rowdy House of Commons. First stop: NYC.

— TV time: Conservatives will surely eat up the prime minister's appearance tonight on “The Late Show with STEPHEN COLBERT” — a celebrity turn for a world leader in trouble back home.

Earlier this month, Trudeau hobnobbed with celebs at the Toronto International Film Festival. Now he's taking that show on the road. Five years ago almost to the day, Colbert roasted Trudeau over the ultra-embarrassing brownface scandal. Two years before that, the late-night icon turned the softwood lumber dispute du jour into a dick joke.

Whatever will they talk about tonight?

— Routine business: On Sunday, Trudeau attended the U.N. Summit of the Future and held bilateral meetings with Japanese PM FUMIO KISHIDA, New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL, and U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES.

Today, he'll meet Haitian PM GARRY CONILLE, speak at the High-Level Meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Council Ad Hoc Advisory Group on Haiti, meet with Nobel winner MALALA YOUSAFZAI and attend a working lunch hosted by German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ.

Expect the PM to address the U.N. General Assembly this week, too, before returning to Canada to host French President EMMANUEL MACRON.

HOUSE SHENANIGANS — Trudeau will whip out his phone Wednesday to vote in what could've been a high-stakes confidence vote, if only the Bloc Québécois and NDP hadn't (predictably) snuffed out any anticipation by pledging to prop up the Liberals.

Oh, how quickly drama can evaporate on the Hill (until it doesn't).

That vote will still happen, and it won't be long before the House votes in another CPC attempt to bring down the government. The countdown is on until Tory talking points rhyme off the number of times their opposition rivals have buttressed Trudeau's hold on power.

B.C. ELECTION — British Columbia's provincial election is kicking off as a nail-biter.

338Canada's PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER measures a statistical provincewide tie — 44 percent apiece — between the incumbent New Democrats and hard-charging B.C. Conservatives.

This kind of showdown would have seemed impossible two years ago. Back then, the unabashed right-wingers languished in third place. BC United — aka rebranded Liberals — still held a solid second place behind DAVID EBY's popular NDP.

About a year ago, JOHN RUSTAD's Conservatives leapfrogged KEVIN FALCON's United. Falcon had booted Rustad from his caucus in 2022 for doubting carbon dioxide's contribution to climate change.

This summer, the pair announced a stunning election-merger deal that consolidated Conservative momentum.

— Issues primer: The Canadian Press explains all the hot-button issues and ballot questions that could decide the election.

— An orange-eyed view: Playbook got on the horn with MIKE MCKINNON, a senior consultant at Enterprise Canada and former adviser to NDP premiers.

In the campaign's opening days, McKinnon is watching Rustad. The NDP has aired ads for several weeks that paint the Conservative hopeful as a climate change denier who wants to cut health care services. Their aim is to define him before he can define himself.

"This is not a leader who is well known. His track record is not well known. He hasn't had a lot of runway as a leader," McKinnon says, adding Conservative voters in the province might be likelier to think PIERRE POILIEVRE is the party leader.

"That speaks to Poilievre's popularity, but it also speaks to Rustad."

— The key battlegrounds: "This election comes down to the people and the places that voted NDP in 2020 for the first time," McKinnon predicted, pointing to suburban seats that serve as a rough equivalent to the "905" ring around Toronto.

New Democrats flipped 16 seats four years ago. McKinnon's most important question about those new voters: "Where do they go in this election?"

338Canada's Fournier projects some of the closest races will play out in the lower mainland suburbs of Richmond and Surrey.

— Vox populi: By the end of October, British Columbians, New Brunswickers and Saskatchewanians will all have cast ballots. Who will win in each? Place your bets now. We'll print the names of every reader who correctly predicts all three outcomes.

MEDIA ROOM

— Conservatives have racked up donations at fundraisers in private homes. Liberals have for years restricted their own events to public spaces. Until now, scoops the Toronto Star's ALEX BALLINGALL, who details a party policy shift. (On Saturday, the party updated the language on its website — and emphasized restrictions on lobbyists.)

— The Star's RAISA PATEL scrutinizes a defining political moment for JAGMEET SINGH.

— The AP details the secret service’s next challenge: “Keeping scores of world leaders safe at the UN General Assembly.”

— The Globe’s IAN BAILEY reports on growing numbers of unhoused people and drug users in the core of Ottawa, on the doorstep of the House of Commons and the Senate.

— And from ANDREW COYNE in the Globe: The conservative defeat of carbon pricing is the defeat of economics – and of conservatism. And from AARON WHERRY of CBC News:

The issue isn't the carbon tax — it's climate change.

— In Alberta Views, Sen. PAULA SIMONS tees up her soon-to-be-published report on cities' relationship with the federal government.

A message from Flip the Switch:

PROZONE

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and SUE ALLAN: Trudeau's AI reading list.

In other news for Pro readers:

— 10 takeaways from Ontario’s trade envoy in DC.

— New York will whisper Trump’s name at Climate Week.

— US to regulate part of struggling voluntary carbon market.

— Chinese minister heads home empty-handed in EV case.

— Meet the world’s toughest trade negotiator.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to retired Sen. ETHEL COCHRANE and to journo GORD MARTINEAU. HBD + 1 to TIM POWERS of Summa Strategies.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: A new Ontario Liberal logo, unveiled at the party's weekend convention … Former B.C. Premier CHRISTY CLARK, whose name floats around the fishbowl as a post-Trudeau leadership aspirant, speaking at the confab (h/t ANDREW PEREZ) … The City of Calgary, removing water-use restrictions after four months.

Noted: In a weekly wrap-up video in which Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH laughed off PIERRE POILIEVRE's first attempt to bring down the government, NES also called for a Cabinet shuffle: "More Millers and Frasers are just waiting on the bench, and it's September — time to show the fans who's going to be in the big leagues next year."

Movers and shakers: RAY MATTIE is seeking the Conservative nomination for Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish — one of several hopefuls in the winnable Nova Scotia seat.

Farewells: Liberal MP and Olympian ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN paid tribute in the House last week to SCOTT RUSSELL, “the king of Canadian sports broadcasting.” The CBC host recently signed off for the final time after nearly 40 years with the corporation.

Media mentions: EMILY RAUHALA joins the politics team at The Washington Post as Congress editor.

ON THE HILL

11 a.m. The House natural resources committee is studying Canada’s electricity grid and Network and will hear from officials from the Canadian Labour Congress, Canadian Union of Public Employees, Electricity Human Resources Canada and Indigenous Clean Energy.

11 a.m. The House public accounts committee is studying Sustainable Development Technology Canada and will hear from STEPHEN KUKUCHA and GUY OUIMET.

11 a.m. The House heritage committee is studying Bill C-354 in its first hour before moving in-camera to draft a report on "tech giants’ current and ongoing use of intimidation and subversion tactics to evade regulation in Canada and across the world,

11 a.m. The House environment committee is studying environment and climate impacts related to the Canadian financial system, and talking in-camera about an emergency order for boreal caribou protection under the Species at Risk Act.

11 a.m. The House public accounts committee is studying the auditor general's report on Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

11 a.m. The House international trade committee is studying the protection of Canadian manufacturing sectors against Chinese imports and measures, before moving in-camera.

1:15 p.m. Liberal MP TERRY SHEEHAN and Federation of Canadian Municipalities President GEOFF STEWART will make a virtual announcement in Ottawa about sustainable affordable housing in Northwestern Ontario.

3:30 p.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee starts in-camera before moving to its study of Bill C-61, and will hear from First Nations leaders.

3:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee is studying the recognition of Persian Gulf veterans and wartime service, as well as transition to civilian life.

3:30 p.m. The House industry committee will continue clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-27, the Digital Charter Implementation Act.

4:30 p.m. The Senate national security committee will study Bill C-20.

Behind closed doors: The House fisheries and oceans committee will draft a report on Yukon salmon stocks. The House justice committee will work on its report on Islamophobia. The House Canada-China committee will elect a new vice-chair before turning off its cameras to work on a draft report.

A message from Flip the Switch:

What is extended interswitching? It's a measure that allows shippers located on a single rail line to access competing services from the nearest railway within a 160 km radius. This levels the playing field in negotiations, which encourages better service or pricing for the benefit of the entire supply chain. Extended interswitching is a critical tool for Canadian shippers, proven to increase competition while lowering costs for both shippers and consumers. In the long run, extended interswitching will enhance Canada's reputation as a reliable shipper and support economic growth.

Unfortunately, railways have been waging a major campaign against grain farmers and the sector to stop the 18-month extended interswitching pilot that began in September 2023. We’ll be myth-busting for the remainder of the week, but to learn more now, visit www.interswitching.ca.

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: It was PIERRE TRUDEAU who advised BRIAN MULRONEY: “Be friends with the United States — the Canadian people like the Americans — but don’t be subservient to the American government, because Canadians are very proud people.”

Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and GREG MACEACHERN.

Today’s question: On this date in history, who said: “The usual political thing to do when charges are made against you is to either ignore them or to deny them without giving details.

I believe we've had enough of that.”

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and KYLE DUGGAN.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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