GOP STARTS SAYING THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD House Republicans are increasingly acknowledging publicly what they’ve been saying privately: Congress is heading toward a short-term bill to fund the government into December, and it won’t include their voting bill. But with nine slated House session days left to go until the Oct. 1 government shutdown deadline, there are still Republicans who aren’t willing to acknowledge that likely end game just yet. Instead, the House ended the week largely where it started — focused on a spending proposal that has no shot in the Senate and is a longshot to even pass the House. One GOP lawmaker quipped they might leave town until the final spending vote. Another asked us sarcastically: “It’s a good thing we came up here this week, isn’t it?” After conservatives scuttled Speaker Mike Johnson’s initial plan to fund the government through March 28 and attach a bill that requires proof of citizenship to register to vote, several House Republicans seem to have graduated from the denial stage of grief and smacked into the bargaining phase. The next plan: Some GOP appropriators are floating shortening the length of the stopgap funding bill — known as a continuing resolution or a CR — to December and tying that to the GOP voting proposal, known as the SAVE Act. Others are proposing that they drop the SAVE Act and just fund the government through March. And still others are talking about a 90-day funding bill, a shorter timeframe than the December date favored by Democrats (more below on what the appropriators are up to behind the scenes). And some conservatives, such as Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), prefer a stopgap bill that would go even further into next year (though he would vote for Johnson’s current plan.) But to be clear: It’s very unlikely (you might say impossible) that any of those alternatives could clear the House.
- Six-month spending bill without the SAVE Act: That doesn’t move the GOP’s anti-CR faction and Democrats have little incentive to go with this since Republicans will need to lean on them for help anyway.
- December spending bill with the SAVE Act: Republicans are hoping this would flip more Democrats, but it’s unlikely that would be enough given it would probably lose more Republican votes. In addition to that problem, a holdout we spoke to was skeptical it moved current “no” votes enough to change the outcome of a floor vote.
- Six-month spending bill with the SAVE Act: Johnson vowed that his team was only delaying a vote on his initial plan as he tries to figure out a path forward. But no Republicans we’ve spoken with expect that the bill as it was rolled out earlier this month can get the votes to pass at this point.
It reminds us of last year, when Kevin McCarthy watched his right flank tank his plan to pass a funding bill loaded up with GOP priorities. As we’ve previously reported, Johnson doesn’t face the threat of an immediate ouster, but the spending fight will impact the leadership election if Republicans keep the majority. Where that leaves us: A growing number of Republicans — conservatives and centrists — are increasingly acknowledging: Congress will pass a short-term bill that funds the government into late November or December. “I think we end up at a short-term CR,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said, adding that the end date will have to be in November or December “in order to pass.” So why go through this? House Republicans we’ve spoken to over the past month were (rightly) skeptical that they would be able to pass any funding bill on their own, given division within their own conference. But some of them also wanted to at least try to show they were fighting, even if the outcome seemed inevitable. Or, as Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) told us about Johnson’s current plan: “I hope it’s a sincere effort. … But I’ll take a fake fight over no fight.” — Jordain Carney GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Sept. 13, where Congress’ first week back has us very ready for the weekend.
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