Plouffe on Harris’ path to 270

The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.
Sep 03, 2024 View in browser
 
West Wing Playbook

By Eli Stokols, Ben Johansen and Lauren Egan

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration and Harris campaign.

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Historically, Labor Day has marked a major milepost in the presidential campaign cycle, the start of the final general election sprint. This year, however, it comes as the dust is still settling.

As Eli and ALEX ISENSTADT wrote Tuesday morning, KAMALA HARRIS’ team believes she is the underdog in a race against DONALD TRUMP, a former president seeking the office for a third straight time. But they also believe several dynamics in the revamped race are working in her favor.

DAVID PLOUFFE, the campaign manager on BARACK OBAMA’s 2008 bid, is now Harris’ senior adviser for path to 270 and strategy. He spoke to West Wing Playbook about how he and the vice president’s team see the 63 days ahead. This conversation has been edited for clarity.

How do you see these final nine weeks setting up?

I think the most important thing in the pursuit of 270 electoral votes is that Kamala Harris has multiple credible pathways to win. She has shown growing strength, which is important. You see both candidates have a pretty high vote share, so there's a small but important number of undecided voters, and this is a campaign that’s well positioned to reach them.

Because of the enthusiasm she’s generated?

Right now, I think more voters than not see her as kind of a breath of fresh air. She's handled herself exceedingly well in this hot spotlight. You know, at the end of the day, I think we were convinced there's enough voters in each battleground state that, all things being equal, would rather Donald Trump not return for a second time.

We have a market of voters out there who want to know more about her, who are open to voting for [her] and we've got, I think, a campaign and a candidate who can meet those voters where they are.

How does that enthusiasm translate to her campaign, operationally?

I can't overstate it — it makes impossible things possible. So say we want to go talk to [several] thousand voters today in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County or in [Wisconsin's] Dane County, or in Wake County, down in North Carolina, and the campaign can do that. Some people give dollars, and that's amazing. People will share social media content, and that's super important, because it creates kind of an army of people out there sharing good content. Those people reach other voters.

The debate is coming up in a week. How critical is that, especially given that it’ll be her chance to make a first impression with so many people watching?

Presidential debates do matter. … I would assume that the audience for this will be larger than the one in June. You have a lot of people going to vote who may not watch the debate, but they'll see clips, of course. It's a big moment. It's not the only moment. I think a successful campaign does not over-rely on any one moment.

And don’t forget: No one in American history will have done more general election presidential debates than Donald Trump. This will be his seventh. Kamala Harris rightly says she's an underdog in this race. I think she'll be an underdog in this debate.

But if she does well, you see this is a real chance to solidify and expand her support?

Where the race stands today is there's still a bunch of voters out there that want to know more about Kamala Harris, that will learn more about her, that are curious about her, and that's a big advantage. I don't think people pay enough attention to that, people who are watching this race: These candidates aren't similar in terms of their ability to grow.

Campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote a memo this weekend touting, among other advantages, your superior organization. How does that factor in at the end of the day?

Basically the presidential campaign is seven gubernatorial races and one congressional race. Yes, television ads are important. And yes, national coverage is important. But you've got to think about it that way, which is, you want to be in as many corners of the state as you can, communities large, medium and small.

You want surrogates in those places; you want as good a ground operation as a state-based candidate would have. I mean, to me, that's the standard you need to set ... Can you run just an incredibly intensive presidential campaign as if you were running a dead heat battleground state governor's campaign? And I think we can.

And you need to do that in these seven key states you’re talking about. That, essentially, is where this race will be won or lost.

Yes. You've got seven states and the congressional district in Nebraska. And you’ve got different ways to win them.

I mean, a month, 40 days ago, the Trump campaign was spending as much time talking about New Jersey and New Mexico as North Carolina. … That ridiculous notion that he was going to expand the map has now been laid to rest.

MESSAGE US — Are you ALI GREENSTEIN, special assistant to the president for strategy and operations? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com.

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POTUS PUZZLER

How much damage was done in the BILL CLINTON to GEORGE W. BUSH transition?

(Answer at bottom.)

CAMPAIGN HQ

ANOTHER ECONOMIC POLICY ROLLOUT: Harris will announce in a speech on Wednesday a new goal of expanding tax relief for small businesses, according to a campaign official. As our ELENA SCHNEIDER reports, the vice president will set a goal of 25 million new small business applications in her first term. Previewing the plan Harris will lay out during remarks in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, the official said she’ll propose increasing the small business tax deduction for startup expenses tenfold — from $5,000 to $50,000 — and cutting red tape for tax filings and occupational license applications, among other things.

FIRST IN WEST WING PLAYBOOK: The former Biden (turned Harris) campaign recently refunded $50,000 that was given to it by a businessman accused of fraudulently pretending to be associated with the CIA, our DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in.

In March, West Wing Playbook wrote about how the Biden campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had frozen hundreds of thousands of dollars that GAURAV SRIVASTAVA had donated to them. After the Wall Street Journal profiled Srivastava last week, we checked in with the Harris campaign about the status of the money.

The Biden campaign said back then that it had put the funds in “escrow,” but a campaign official now said the money was refunded in mid-June — though they declined to answer further questions on what made them finally give it back. A spokesperson for the DCCC said the $289,300 Srivastava gave the committee remains in escrow.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Srivastava said “the returned campaign donation is an unfortunate side effect of a malicious and defamatory disinformation campaign against Mr. Srivastava,” carried out by former Dutch business partner NIELS TROOST.

LENDING A HAND: The Harris campaign and the Democratic National Committee said Tuesday that it is sending nearly $25 million to support down-ballot Democrats, our JESSICA PIPER reports. Thanks to the new ticket’s scorching fundraising run over the last few weeks, Wilmington now has the ability to spread money around.

The funds come from both the Harris campaign and DNC, with a total of $10 million each going to committees supporting Democratic candidates for House and Senate, along with $2.5 million to a national Democratic group supporting state legislative candidates and $1 million each for groups backing Democratic gubernatorial and attorney general candidates.

(NOT) BUMPIN' THAT: After CHARLI XCX declared “brat summer” to be over on Monday, the Harris campaign followed suit. The “Kamala HQ” X account had for weeks boasted a lime green, brat-themed banner ... until today. The campaign’s new banner features a Donald Trump Truth Social post: “IS SHE TALKING ABOUT ME?”

WITH THE SEASON JUST AROUND THE CORNER… A series of illustrated posters depicting Vice President Harris in a Philadelphia Eagles helmet and declaring her the official candidate of the team popped up around Philly over Labor Day weekend. But the Eagles are saying it’s not their doing, The Athletic’s TESS DeMEYER and ALEX ANDREJEV report. The team said Monday that it was working to remove the “counterfeit political ads” that appear to endorse Harris.

JUMPING ON BOARD: The Harris campaign has hired CAMILA THORNDIKE as its climate engagement director, our JOSH SIEGEL reports for Pro subscribers. Thorndike is joining the campaign from Rewiring America, where she was senior director of public engagement.

The Oval

ROUGH FIRST DAY OF SCHOOL: After a quiet last week of summer that saw White House officials scattering to beaches far and wide (BEN LaBOLT, you’re looking very tan after that week in the Hamptons!), the return to campus on Tuesday was a real shitshow, especially for a couple dozen individuals whose hard passes — inexplicably — no longer worked.

Several members of the media were among those stranded outside the gates. When WSJ’s ANNIE LINSKEY arrived to cover the president’s afternoon remarks, she said a U.S. Secret Service agent told her the system showed a “user disabled” message when she scanned her badge, which was temporarily confiscated. NBC’s ELYSE PERLMUTTER-GUMBINER was stuck outside for an hour before press wrangler SONJA THRASHER escorted her to the pass office in the EEOB to sort things out. Linskey and others eventually got through after submitting a separate application for day access, but it’s safe to say YEMISI EGBEWOLE and others in the communications and press shops heard from a lot of pissed-off journalists throughout the day.

Aides helped resolve the snafus, attributed to an “IT glitch,” on a case-by-case basis, ensuring that those who were in the pool or credentialed to cover Biden’s remarks were able to eventually get in. But no one seemed to know what caused the mess. And staffers continued to advise journalists to arrive a bit early for events this week just in case other passes are affected.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This new USA Today/Suffolk University poll released Tuesday, which found that President Biden’s approval rating is at 48 percent. It’s a 7-point swing up from a previous poll conducted in June, which had his approval rating at 41 percent. In the poll, Biden’s disapproval rating was at 49 percent, down eight percentage points from June. On the election, 50 percent of respondents said they believe Vice President Harris will win in November, compared to 38 percent who felt that Trump has the edge.

Communications director Ben LaBolt and deputy communications director HERBIE ZISKEND shared the poll on X. 

BIDEN’S ECONOMY SOAPBOX: In a call Tuesday afternoon, President Biden spoke with local elected officials, community leaders and people who are benefiting from policies including efforts to lower health care and energy costs and bolster local economic development. The call was the first in a series of conversations Biden will have in the coming weeks arguing that his administration’s “Investing in America” plan is benefiting families.

Later this week, the president will travel to Wisconsin and Michigan to tout his agenda, press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said at Tuesday’s briefing.

Our MEREDITH LEE HILL writes in that Biden will spotlight the administration’s investments in renewable energy during his Thursday trip to Westby, Wisconsin, situated in the state’s swingy southwest corner, according to a person familiar with the plans.

Biden and Democrats have been trying to win over voters in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District for several years now, citing billions in federal investments in the largely rural area. They've had mixed success. Democrats are now trying to flip the key congressional seat after losing it to Republican Rep. DERRICK VAN ORDEN in 2022. And Biden — who, in 2020, did manage to regain traction in some of the region’s small towns — now must persuade the voters there to support Harris.

Republicans are heavily targeting the swing region, too: Trump was just in the district last week for a town hall in La Crosse.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by NPR’s TOM DREISBACH, who reports that U.S. Ambassador to India ERIC GARCETTI may have lied under oath when testifying over sexual harassment allegations against RICK JACOBS, one of Garcetti’s closest advisers during his tenure as Los Angeles mayor.

Multiple city staffers and several employees at Jacobs' liberal advocacy group, Courage Campaign, had accused him of making crude sexual remarks and non consensual physical contact. Jacobs denied all wrongdoing — and Garcetti defended him. But NPR obtained excerpts of Garcetti’s 2021 video deposition and evidence of new allegations of workplace misconduct and retaliation, raising questions over the ambassador’s truthfulness and the Biden administration’s decision to nominate him to his current post.

“To watch him lie like that is such a betrayal,” said NAOMI SELIGMAN, who served as Garcetti’s communications director from 2015 to 2017 and who has accused him of committing perjury.

“There are a lot of lives and people he left behind that have been hurt, because of his inability to own his responsibility in this situation,” said SUZI EMMERLING, who served as Garcetti’s communications director from 2017 to 2019.

THE BUREAUCRATS

WHO WILL CROSS THE POND? London papers are speculating about the succession plan for Britain’s ambassador to the U.S., KAREN PIERCE, whose term is scheduled to conclude early next year, NYT’s MARK LANDLER reports. Among the names being floated are DAVID MILIBAND, a former foreign secretary once viewed as the future of the Labour Party; PETER MANDELSON, a Labour grandee who has held multiple cabinet posts; and JONATHAN POWELL, who served as chief of staff to Prime Minister TONY BLAIR.

Some dark horses we suspect could be in the mix: ALI G, GORDON RAMSAY and WALLACE (close adviser to GROMIT).

PERSONNEL MOVES: VIANNE KARA SINGH is now a speechwriter to the acting secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Lippman has learned. She most recently was communications strategist in the Office of Public Affairs of HUD.

— MERON T. YOHANNES has been promoted to be a senior policy adviser at the Commerce Department, Lippman has also learned. She most recently was a policy adviser at the agency.

Agenda Setting

ONE LAST HURRAH: President Biden’s top climate adviser, JOHN PODESTA, departed for Beijing on Tuesday, where he’s expected to press Chinese leaders on their plan to cut greenhouse emissions, NYT’s LISA FRIEDMAN reports. The three-day trip is the White House's last ditch effort to persuade China on climate action before the election. Podesta plans to talk with his Chinese counterpart, LIU ZHENMIN, as well as with ministers who oversee the country’s coal development and renewable energy production.

What We're Reading

What Awaits a Harris Presidency (The Atlantic’s Eliot Cohen)

Convicted fraudsters launch AI lobbying firm using fake names (POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman)

Don’t Trust the Election Forecasts (Justin Grimmer for POLITICO Magazine)

The Oppo Book

Sixty-five-year-old economic wonk (and part dancing queen) GENE SPERLING was once rumored to be dating model and actress NAOMI CAMPBELL in the early 2000s. After being spotted at the 2001 economic conference in Davos, Switzerland, Sperling and Campbell were labeled the “It” couple by the Washington Post. “We’re just friends,” Sperling responded when asked about the relationship.

An NYT write-up of the conference described the scene in Davos 23 years ago: “Gene Sperling, who headed the National Economic Council at the White House, entered the forum’s Saturday night gala soiree with none other than Naomi Campbell, the stunning supermodel, on his arm.”

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

According to the General Accounting Office, an investigative arm of Congress, Clinton West Wing aides left the White House in disarray, totaling about $13,000 to $14,000 in damage, NYT’s ROBERT PEAR reported in 2002. Following a yearlong investigation, GAO concluded that “damage, theft, vandalism and pranks did occur in the White House complex.” The overall cost included $4,850 to replace computer keyboards, many with damaged or missing W keys.

Some of the damage, the office said, was clearly intentional. Glue was smeared on desk drawers. Messages disparaging Bush were left on signs and in telephone voice mail.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Steve Shepard and Rishika Dugyala.

 

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