| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer | |  Fears are mounting that millions more Venezuelans will flee the South American country in the near future if Nicolás Maduro stays in power, exacerbating existing regional migration pressures. | Pedro Rances Mattey/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman, Kerry Garrity and Meridith McGraw Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Nearly two months after the Venezuelan opposition claimed victory in the country’s recent elections, U.S. and regional pressure on Venezuela President NICOLÁS MADURO has failed to convince him to respect the largely-agreed upon results and cede power. Now, critics say it’s time the Biden administration hits Maduro where it hurts. The U.S. has reinstated restrictions on the country’s lucrative gold mining sector that it lifted as part of last year’s Barbados Agreement, which saw Caracas gain some sanctions relief in exchange for promising to hold free and fair elections. It also allowed sanctions relief and temporary export licenses to expire in April without renewal. U.S. authorities also unveiled new personal sanctions against Venezuelan officials accused of human rights abuses in September and seized Maduro’s plane while it was parked at an airport in the Dominican Republic. But critics say the U.S. still has two major pieces of leverage it’s not using — imposing new sanctions on the petrostate’s oil and gas industry and canceling remaining licenses that allow U.S. companies like Chevron to make deals with PDVSA, the country’s state-owned oil company — and they want the Biden administration to act before the political crisis in Venezuela unravels further. CARRIE FILIPETTI, who helped lead Venezuela policy at the State Department under former President DONALD TRUMP, told NatSec Daily that “the Biden administration needs to stop prioritizing big oil interests over American national security.” “The regime is desperate to continue Chevron’s license, as it provides a key economic lifeline,” said Filipetti, who now leads the conservative Vandenberg Coalition think tank. “We have the power to sever that lifeline, and we need to do it urgently.” And those calls have support on Capitol Hill. Rep. MARÍA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.), who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Western Hemisphere Subcommittee said in a statement that “Maduro needs to get the message from the United States that his blood-stained oil deals are over and that the world will not tolerate him staying in power after the January 10, 2025 inauguration date.” The National Security Council defended its “targeted, calibrated” approach to Venezuela sanctions, saying in a statement that they are “designed to hold Nicolas Maduro and his representatives accountable for its electoral fraud and violent repression, without harming the everyday Venezuelan people.” The U.S. “will consider additional actions in coordination with regional and international partners to encourage Venezuelan-led constructive and inclusive dialogue to restore democratic norms,” the statement continued. BILL TURENNE, a spokesperson for Chevron, told NatSec Daily that “we have been a constructive presence in Venezuela for over a century, where we have dedicated investments and a large workforce.” He added the company remains “committed to conducting our business in compliance with applicable laws and regulations, both in the U.S. and the countries where we operate.” But the calls for tougher sanctions come as hopes for resolving Venezuela’s political standoff dwindle and Maduro deepens his grip on power. Opposition candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ URRUTIA fled to Spain earlier this month and Maduro and his allies have pledged to prosecute opposition leader MARÍA CORINA MACHADO and other activists for their role in nationwide demonstrations. Fears are mounting, meanwhile, that millions more Venezuelans will flee the South American country in the near future if Maduro stays in power, exacerbating existing regional migration pressures. RYAN BERG, who leads the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned that inaction could risk diminishing the credibility of U.S. leadership in the region. “All of our threats in the future are going to be seen as toothless, and not just by Venezuela, by the way,” Berg said. “Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia, China — everybody's looking to see our response to Venezuela and are taking lessons from it.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovation that Powers Economic Growth
The F-35 helps secure our world. The program unites valued allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-paying, high-tech jobs for workers in critical innovation fields. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GEORGIA ON THEIR MINDS: The Biden administration is making its displeasure with Georgia’s government known this week at UNGA. The White House disinvited Georgian Prime Minister IRAKLI KOBAKHIDZE from a reception with world leaders that President JOE BIDEN will host at the Metropolitan Opera House tomorrow. They have also declined all meeting requests from members of the Georgian delegation. U.S. officials feel as though the country’s government is seeking to derail Tbilisi’s integration with the European Union and the West and disregard the will of Georgian voters. And they are also not feeling reassured following recent discussions with their Georgian counterparts about a controversial “foreign agent” law the government rammed through earlier this year. That law would require civil society groups that receive foreign funding to register with the government. It was criticized by Western observers and Georgia’s opposition as reminiscent of similar measures taken in Russia to stifle civil society there. BIDEN’S UNGA SWAN SONG: Biden gave his valedictory address at the U.N. General Assembly today, calling on world leaders to “make sure that the forces holding us together are stronger than those pulling us apart.” As our own JONATHAN LEMIRE writes, Biden’s final speech to the gathering saw him celebrate his role “in renewing and expanding international organizations, global efforts to stand up to autocrats and a push for a post-pandemic world to grow more prosperous.” But Lemire adds, “The moment also offered a stark reminder of the limits of presidential power and the challenges that Biden faced that remain unfinished.” PRESIDENTIAL TRIP TO ANGOLA: Biden will visit Angola in October, marking his first trip to Africa as president and honoring a promise made two years ago that he would travel to the continent during his first term. White House Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said in a press release today that Biden will be in Angola Oct. 13-15 and meet with the country’s president JOÃO LOURENÇO. His visit will hail the Lobito Corridor, a major project supported by the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment that when completed will link Africa’s Indian and Atlantic Ocean coasts. He’ll stop in Germany in the days ahead of the visit. ZELENSKA IN BOSTON: Ukrainian First Lady OLENA ZELENSKA paid a visit to the Massachusetts State House today and met with the state’s governor, Democrat MAURA HEALEY, our own KELLY GARRITY writes in. Healey told reporters at the State House in Boston that Zelenska stopped in before a scheduled speaking engagement at Harvard University. She said “We pledged Massachusetts’ strong support for the people of Ukraine, and we are here to help,” noting that she and other governors are looking for ways to support Ukraine at the state level. SULLIVAN ON MIDEAST PEACE: National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN insists Biden “absolutely hasn’t given up” on a Gaza cease-fire deal, even despite the major new Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. “We remind ourselves frequently of what GEORGE MITCHELL said the day that the Northern Ireland peace process was concluded: He said, these kinds of negotiations are 700 days of failure and one day of success,” Sullivan said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe today. “There have been difficulties and setbacks. We've had challenges getting the [Israeli] prime minister across the line. We've had challenges getting Hamas's leader, Sinwar, across the line. But we are determined to keep at it.” IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | TRUMP’S HOT AND COLD: The former president is keeping everyone guessing about his true feelings towards Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. There are no plans on the books for Zelenskyy to meet with Trump and such a meeting looks increasingly unlikely, our own MERIDITH McGRAW confirms, despite Trump being in New York at the same time as the Ukrainian President for the U.N. General Assembly. At a campaign rally in western Pennsylvania Monday night, the GOP nominee said “I think Zelenskyy is the greatest salesman in history. Every time he comes into the country, he walks away with 60 billion dollars,” he said. “He wants them to win this election so badly, but I would do differently — I will work out peace.” Trump’s comments came after Zelenskyy visited Pennsylvania and toured a factory there making ammunition that is supplied to Ukraine. And they follow calls between Trump and Zelenskyy, and statements from Trump allies like ROBERT O’BRIEN, that the U.S. will support Ukraine under a second Trump administration. Harris’s campaign, which is trying to burnish her pro-Ukraine credentials in battleground states, was quick to jump on Trump’s comments. “Trump won’t say he wants Ukraine to win its war because he’s rooting for Vladimir Putin,” said MORGAN FINKELSTEIN, a Harris campaign spokesperson.
| | | TRUMP’S STILL GETTING HACKED: An Iranian hacking operation against Trump’s campaign might still be ongoing. As Semafor’s BEN SMITH reports, a source named “Robert” emailed progressive newsletter writer JUDD LEGUM leaked documents from the Trump campaign. That included a legal letter dated Sept. 15 that lawyers representing Trump sent to The New York Times to complain about an article it published that raised questions about how successful Trump was in his business dealings. The recency of the letter indicates that whoever breached the Trump campaign’s servers and devices may have still had access as recently as last week. Trump spokesman STEVEN CHEUNG didn’t comment on the widening breach but told Semafor that the hack indicates that Iran “is terrified of the strength and resolve of President Donald J. Trump.”
| | BLINKEN IN CONTEMPT? Surprising nobody, the House Foreign Affairs Committee moved to hold Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN in contempt of Congress today for failing to comply with a subpoena to appear before the committee. As our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports, the hearing on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was timed to coincide with Biden’s speech before the U.N. General Assembly. Blinken had told the committee that “I am willing to testify” but added that he was “profoundly disappointed” by the committee’s insistence on dates “during which I am carrying out the President’s important foreign policy objectives.” It might not be the last effort by the House Foreign Affairs Committee to hold Biden administration officials in contempt for not testifying as part of their probe into the Afghanistan withdrawal. A reminder: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) has also pushed for Sullivan to testify before the committee, setting the stage for yet another subpoena showdown if he doesn’t agree.
| | LET THE UNGA BROADSIDES BEGIN: It’s that time of year — the weather is turning crisper (and rainier if you’re in D.C.), the days are getting shorter and leaders at the U.N. General Assembly this week are issuing some strong barbs at their foes, their friends and the international system. Here at NatSec Daily, we know you all are too busy to follow every single insult or significant moment, so we’ve got you covered this week. Here’s your round-up of the most notable UNGA diatribes from today. Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN quickly fulfilled Godwin’s law, raising an implicit comparison between ADOLF HITLER and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in just the third speech of the morning. “Just as Hitler was stopped by the alliance of humanity 70 years ago, Netanyahu and his murder network must also be stopped by the alliance of humanity,” he said. Erdoğan also called Israeli prisons housing Palestinians “concentration camps” and said Israel had turned Gaza into the “world’s largest cemetery for women and children.” Meanwhile, colonialism and “domination” got an early mention this year, as Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA lambasted the continued lack of reserved seats on the Security Council for Latin America and Africa. “Excluding Latin America and Africa from the permanent seats of the Security Council is an unacceptable echo of domination practices from the colonial past,” he thundered.
| | — CHRIS JOHNSTONE is joining The Asia Group full-time as managing principal, leading the defense and national security practice. He was most recently senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in addition to a senior adviser at TAG. He also previously served as National Security Council director for East Asia. — ADEJARE (JAY) ATANDA is joining the Meselson Center at RAND U.S. as biosecurity senior policy researcher. He previously worked at the Department of Homeland Security.
| | — JEFFREY HORNUNG, RAND: Not always easy: Lessons learned on introducing new defense capabilities in Japan — ANDREW MILLER, POLITICO: Humanity has been a casualty in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — Le Monde: United Nations: The tragic breakdown of multilateralism
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Strengthening Our Supply Chain. Securing Our Future.
The F-35 is the most economically significant defense program in U.S. history, contributing approximately $72 billion annually and advances the industry to outpace global competitors by supplying more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs. Learn more. | | | | | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Rebuilding America's maritime strength — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 9:45 a.m.: Do Chinese companies pose a risk to our national security? — Council on Foreign Relations, 10:45 a.m.: Yemen's foreign policy priorities, regional security, and the country's humanitarian situation — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: The transformation of German politics — Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, 3 p.m.: Erasing Ukrainian identity and culture — U.S. Agency for International Development; and the Ford Foundation, 3:30 p.m.: "Democracy Delivers" with USAID Administration SAMANTHA POWER — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: Lideres hispanos: Hispanic leadership in international affairs Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who should also be sanctioned by the U.S. government. Thanks to our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who should enforce said sanctions against Rosie. CORRECTION: An item in Monday’s newsletter misidentified the signatories of a letter who served in the Trump administration. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
