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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at the aftermath of Beijing's military intimidation around Taiwan, toast the return of "panda-monium" to Washington and track the travels of Taiwan's former president. And we profile a book that argues that the first sustained official U.S. contact with the Chinese Communist Party in the 1940s sparked the debate about the merits of engagement "that has persisted to today."
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
The fallout from Beijing's show of force around Taiwan
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Beijing may have lost more than it gained in its latest bout of military muscle flexing —the Joint Sword-2024B air and naval drills around Taiwan this week.
China's People's Liberation Army deployed a record 153 military aircraft and 26 ships around the self-governing island on Monday in a rebuke of President Lai-Ching-te's national day speech last week. A day later, those daily incursions of Chinese fighter jets dropped to their usual level of around 22.
Beijing had clear tactical goals for that escalation. China's military is "testing the muscle movements that would be required to enforce a limited quarantine or even blockade of the island down the road," said Rick Waters, former inaugural coordinator of the State Department's China House, now managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice.
But that unprovoked surge of military harassment could be bringing more blowback from the U.S. than China wants.
"It makes Beijing look like they’re overreacting and that they’re an aggressor… they definitely risk escalation by doing this," said Kristen Gunness, former director of the Pentagon's Navy Asia Pacific Advisory Group and now a researcher at RAND Corporation.
The Pentagon agrees. The Defense Department condemned the drills — the first time it's done so since Beijing began its campaign of military intimidation around the island following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan trip in 2022.
Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement Monday that Beijing's "military pressure operation" against Taiwan was "irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing."
China's actions also drew fire on Capitol Hill. "These military drills around Taiwan are reckless … dangerous, unilateral provocations," House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Gregory Meeks said on X Tuesday.
Both the White House and Taiwan's defense ministry predicted a Chinese military response to Lai's speech. But the furious reaction to expected assertions including Beijing "has no right to represent Taiwan” surprised even seasoned China experts. The drills reflect "a change in the status quo. The lesson it risks sending [Taiwan] is: even when you are restrained, we will not be," former National Security Council deputy senior director for China and Taiwan Rush Doshi said on X Monday.
That message isn't lost on the people of Taiwan, the majority of whom already view China as "a major threat" and say they're willing to take up arms to fend off a possible Chinese invasion. The latest PLA maneuvers will likely "only further harden views in the Taiwan public toward the PRC," said Lauren Dickey, former acting director for Taiwan at the Pentagon.
Beijing is defiant. Lai's speech was "deceitful and dangerous" and the Chinese military activities it sparked are "just acts" to defend "territorial integrity," China's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said Tuesday. Beijing "will never commit … to renouncing the use of force" to make Taiwan submit to Chinese rule, Chen added.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
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— THE PANDAS HAVE LANDED: Those strained U.S.-China ties got a symbolic boost with the long-awaited arrival of the giant panda pair Qing Bao and Bao Li at Washington's Dulles International airport Tuesday.
"Let's embrace panda time in D.C.," Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu cheered on X as the bears landed. The bamboo-noshing furballs fill a void in the hearts of Washington panda fans created after the Smithsonian Zoo returned its three pandas to China in November at the end of a lease agreement with Beijing. Zoo visitors will get their first glimpse of the replacement bears starting in January.
— BLACKBURN ON 'BREAKING CHINA': China hawk Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) is channeling her trademark hostility to Beijing into a (literally) smashing new TV campaign ad titled "Breaking China" released Tuesday. The 30-second spot features Blackburn breaking a series of plates embossed with the Chinese flag and the word "China" in English and Chinese. While trashing that tableware she accuses Beijing of spying, buying U.S. land, stealing U.S. jobs and sending Covid-19 to the United States. "We’re going to have to break a lot more China to save America," she warns.
The Chinese embassy isn't laughing. Blackburn's ad constitutes "malicious smear attacks against China … [and] fuel hostility towards the Asian and Chinese community in the U.S.," said embassy spokesperson Liu.
— HERE COMES FORMER TAIWAN PRESIDENT TSAI: Taiwan's former President Tsai Ing-wen is expected to come to the U.S. in the coming weeks, two people familiar with her travel plans as Phelim and POLITICO's Robbie Gramer reported in POLITICO's NatSec Daily on Tuesday. If that happens, look for some roiling of fragile U.S.-China ties amid the tensions of the U.S. presidential election season. Tsai is planning to visit the U.S. sometime after her current trip to the European Union
TRANSLATING EUROPE
TSAI IN PARIS: That European tour by Taiwan's Tsai included a Wednesday stop in France, a visit that she said was aimed at "bolstering partnerships" with the European Union's second-biggest economy. The visit comes shortly after France led the EU in imposing tariffs against China's electric vehicles.
Tsai will today appear in the European Parliament in the Belgian capital, Brussels, where she's expected to be hosted by EU lawmakers in a friendship group with Taiwan.
EU WARNING ON RUSSIA AID: EU leaders are expected to warn China against supporting Russia's war efforts in Ukraine, as they gather for the European Council summit Thursday.
According to a draft summit statement obtained by POLITICO's Barbara Moens, the leaders will say the EU "strongly condemns third countries' continued support for Russia's war of aggression and urges them to cease all assistance. This includes not only direct military support but also the provision of dual-use goods and sensitive items that sustain Russia's military industrial base."
The draft statement doesn't name China per se, but the EU has previously warned Beijing not to keep supporting Moscow.
UK echoes threats on Chinese support: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also vowed to impose sanctions if Beijing continues to back Moscow militarily. Speaking in Parliament on Wednesday, Starmer answered in the affirmative when grilled on whether the government will sanction any Chinese business involved in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He also said Beijing's activity in the Taiwan strait is "not conducive to peace and stability." POLITICO's Noah Keate has the full write-up.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— RUSSIA TOUTS 'COMMON UNDERSTANDING' WITH CHINA: Moscow and Beijing are on the same page regarding their "assessments of global processes," said Russia's Defense Minister Andrey Belousov this week. The two countries "have common views, a common assessment of the situation, and a common understanding of what we need to do together,” Belousov said after a meeting with Chinese Central Military Commission deputy chair Zhang Youxia, per Russian state media Tuesday. Those comments echo Beijing's declaration of a "no limits" partnership with Moscow weeks prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And it suggests that China has no plans to curb its support for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war machine.
— CHINA SLAMS RTX-TAIWAN WEAPONS SCANDAL: Beijing has waded into a face-off between Taiwan and U.S. defense contractor RTX Corp. (formerly Raytheon) over its alleged overcharging for arms sales to the island. Taiwan's taxpayers paid "sky high price" for "pieces of junk that only benefited corrupted officials and arms dealers," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Senior Col. Wu Qian said Tuesday in reference to the scandal.
Taiwan's Defense Minister Wellington Koo told a hearing of the island's legislature last week that Taipei had requested the Biden administration probe RTX for allegedly overcharging for arms sales to the island. RTX declined to comment.
— BEIJING'S SOUTH CHINA SEA BLAME GAME: Another week, another dangerous dust-up between Chinese Maritime Militia and Philippine vessels in Manila's waters of the South China Sea. This time a militia ship "deliberately sideswiped" a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel after conducting "dangerous maneuvers" around the boat, the bureau said in a statement Tuesday. Beijing blames Manila. "The truth is that Philippine official vessels sailed dangerously in waters under China's jurisdiction and collided with a Chinese fishing boat conducting regular operation there," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Tuesday.
HEADS UP
— BRICS TO MULL UKRAINE 'PEACE PLAN': The BRICS countries —a grouping of emerging economies centered around Brazil, Russia, India and China — convenes its annual summit in Kazan, Russia, next week. And the agenda will likely include a formal endorsement of a China-Brazil joint agreement to end the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to Russia by freezing current battle lines, according to a Ukrainian government document shared with POLITICO last month. The six-point proposal hinges on "an international peace conference … recognized by both Russia and Ukraine" that is at odds with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's so-called victory plan to end the war.
HEADLINES
The Guardian: 'Hi my sweetheart': China's love-heart propaganda labeled creepy in Taiwan
Wall Street Journal: Scale of Chinese spying overwhelms western governments
Financial Times: China's real intent behind its stimulus inflection
New York Times: She was a key aide to Eric Adams. Her ties to China ran deep
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
Mission to Mao|Photo Credit: Brad Norr |
The Book: Mission to Mao: U.S. Intelligence and the Chinese Communists in World War II
The Author: Sara B. Castro is an associate professor of history at the United States Air Force Academy.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
The first sustained official contact between U.S. officials and Chinese Communist Party leaders 80 years ago — the Army-led so-called Dixie Mission at CCP headquarters in Yan'an, China, in 1944 — suffered from an American tendency to impose U.S.-centric solutions whether or not Chinese counterparts welcomed the ideas.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
The tremendous importance of air power to U.S. intelligence and diplomacy during World War II, especially in China where ground transportation was slow and cumbersome. U.S. planes not only played an important part in aerial reconnaissance but they also carried documents, communications and technical intelligence equipment, and people to and from remote parts of China. Access to the U.S. planes and what they carried conveyed legitimacy that CCP leaders sought and probably encouraged them to accept the presence of U.S. intelligence officials in Yan'an.
Do the disagreements between U.S. intel experts and political appointees back in the 1940s still resonate?
The first cohort of U.S. intelligence officials at Yan'an were willing to temporarily overlook ideological differences with the CCP leaders if cooperation could help defeat the Japanese. But U.S. diplomats and political appointees were reluctant to engage the Communists because of fears it could upset the U.S. alliance with China's [anti-communist] Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek. That ignited internal debate about pros and cons of engagement with the CCP that has persisted to today.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Noah Keate, Barbara Moens, and digital producers Ester Wells and Natália Delgado. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at pkine@politico.com slau@politico.com
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