Ghosting the PM

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Oct 02, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Universities Canada

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In today's edition:

→ The PM on getting dumped by the NDP.

→ Why you can’t hurry the Senate.

→ Key takeaways from the VP debate.

Caught our ear


58 MINUTES WITH PMJT — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU talked out a pile of issues on the latest episode of Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH's "Uncommons" podcast.

The PM and Erskine-Smith sat between two plants in Toronto last Friday. They even got into the weeds on the government's failed effort to change Canada's voting system.

Here's what stuck out.

— The devil you know: Trudeau acknowledged his unpopularity, but insisted voters at least know what he stands for. He says Tory Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has yet to articulate his vision. (Counterpoint: The CPC's brand new "Mountain" ad.)

"Someone may disagree with me on this or that and the other things, but they know the frame that I'm working from,” Trudeau told Erskine-Smith. “They know what drives me. They know what matters to me, and that is not something to simply shrug off."

In an uncertain world, knowing a leader's values "is not just important," Trudeau said. "It's ultimately sort of the only thing."

→ Change in the air: "Yeah, it's going to be a change election," Trudeau said.

"Everything has changed — not just climate change, but the way we work, the way AI works, the way geopolitics happens, the pressures on everything. The world is in a massive pivot moment right now and we don't know what the biggest issue is going to be."

— Hold your fire: Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND told POLITICO's “Power Play” pod last week that she'd leave it to Poilievre to define himself for Canadians.

Trudeau acknowledged that a million-dollar ad campaign could've dampened Poilievre's rise in the polls, but the timing seemed off. "There was something that didn't feel true to me in terms of … now I'm going to pick a fight with him when I should be fighting for Canadians?"

→ Stay tuned: Long story short, ads will air eventually. But there's a "Don't fire till you see the whites of their eyes" vibe to Trudeau's thinking.

"If I'm going to drive someone down in the polls a year or two before an election, or even three or four years before an election, is that the best time to knock them down and lift myself up? Or do I want that to happen a little more organically closer to the actual day when people choose?"

— One factor in two big losses: Trudeau blamed stunning by-election defeats in Toronto-St. Paul's and LaSalle-Émard-Verdun on "lots of factors," but he zeroed in on one difference between his first run and LESLIE CHURCH and LAURA PALESTINI's razor-thin runner-up finishes.

"I had a whole year to be a nominated candidate before I won my first time in Papineau in 2008 … In both of these by-elections, we didn't give Leslie enough time on the ground. We didn't give Laura enough time on the ground."

— Tell us how you really feel: When JAGMEET SINGH walked away from the supply-and-confidence deal, Trudeau said he was irked. "It bugged me," he told Erskine-Smith.

He says he and Singh developed a good working relationship.

“We’d have great conversations about a whole bunch of things, and we'd get into policy. I'd meet with him and talk with him in person or on the phone every few months for the entire duration of SACA."

→ A tragic ending: "When he decided to end SACA, he didn't even call me. So the relationship obviously wasn't what I thought it was."

— Fun fact: Trudeau revealed a personal motivation motivating his desire to put off an election until next October's scheduled date. His eldest son, XAVIER, turns 18 on Oct. 18, 2025 — and could cast his first ballot for his dad.

 

A message from Universities Canada:

Canada’s reputation as a leading destination for international students is in jeopardy due to recent federal policy changes aimed at reducing student permits. While it’s crucial to address housing and immigration challenges, these measures are hindering Canada’s universities’ ability to attract global talent, sustain university funding and advance research. International students are essential to Canada’s future economy and innovation. It’s time to restore Canada’s legacy as a global education leader. Learn more.

 
Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be at caucus and in QP. He will also deliver remarks at a Hispanic Day on the Hill reception. Tourism Minister SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA will also attend.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will also be in caucus. She is also scheduled to participate in a closed-door roundtable with members of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will join brand-new MP LEILA DANCE’s swearing-In ceremony. He'll also attend caucus, and speak to reporters before QP.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend Parliament.

— Playbook hasn't seen public itineraries for the Conservative and Bloc Québécois leaders.

DRIVING THE DAY


SENATE WATCH — You can't hurry the Senate.

Ottawa learns that lesson every few months: Senators don't like to take direction from the elected politicians in the House of Commons.

See: Bill C-234, a carbon tax carveout for farmers who use natural gas and propane that caused a ruckus last year amid an industry backlash over wintertime fuel prices.

And so it is with a Bloc Québécois private member's bill that would forbid trade negotiators from making concessions on supply management.

— Status report: Bill C-282 is on the desk of the Senate foreign affairs and international trade committee. They met on it twice last week.

But the next two meetings on the books, slated for today and tomorrow, will take up a study on Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa.

Senators have concerns with the Bloc proposal.

Take PETER HARDER, who spelled out his opposition in April and urged senators to vote against the bill to prevent it from getting to committee. Harder is vice-chair of the committee now overseeing the bill.

— The GRO view: Sen. MARC GOLD, the government rep in the Senate, wants the chamber to move more expeditiously.

"Bill C-282 is a matter of trade policy that has been overwhelmingly supported by MPs of all political parties in the lower chamber,” Gold said in a statement sent to Playbook. “We hope the Senate will respect that expression of democratic will."

Gold wants the committee to prioritize the study "and return it to the chamber for third reading debate in a timely fashion."

Said the senator: "The notion that Senate committees should prioritize PMBs duly passed by the House of Commons really should not be up for debate."

— Back story: A week ago, Government House Leader KARINA GOULD got senators' attention when she spoke with DAVID COCHRANE on CBC's “Power & Politics.”

The Bloc had just laid down an ultimatum.

The Liberals would lose Bloc support on confidence votes if they failed to force through a pair of Bloc-sponsored private members' bills by Oct. 29 — one to increase Old Age Security payments, another to protect supply management in future trade negotiations.

Suddenly, those two bills really, really mattered.

Gould reminded Cochrane that the House unanimously passed Bill C-282. And she said she expected senators to respect the will of the elected House. The legislation had been "sitting in the Senate for some time now," she said.

Senators took notice.

— Playbook fact check: C-282 didn't pass unanimously at third reading in the House. Conservatives split down the middle — 56 in favor, 49 opposed. Even a pair of Liberals, CHANDRA ARYA and NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, voted against it.

The bill saw first reading in the Senate on June 21, 2023, and cleared second reading on April 16. The Senate committee took up its study last week.

That's where Bloc MP YVES PERRON ran into a brick wall of sober second thought.

— 15 sitting days, including today: The countdown is on to the Bloc-imposed deadline.

THE OTHER BILL — MPs will vote today on a Bloc opposition motion that calls for a “royal recommendation” for Bill C-319, which would increase Old Age Security payments for seniors aged 65-74.

The price tag would run the feds approximately C$16 billion over five years. The bill has reached third reading in the Commons, where it was most recently debated on Sept. 25.

— Flashback: A year ago, opposition parties united to pass C-319 at second reading. Liberals opposed it. The legislation cleared committee without amendment.

— Odds are low: "Liberals cool to key Bloc demand to increase seniors benefits," the Globe's BILL CURRY reported Tuesday.

— Up next: Even if the Commons gives its final approval to the bill, C-319's next stop is the Senate. And, well, see above.

 

A message from Universities Canada:

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2024 WATCH

JD Vance and Tim Walz shake hands.

Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz in New York last night. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO

SHOWDOWN IN NYC — During last night’s VP debate, JD VANCE declined to say that DONALD TRUMP lost the 2020 election, drawing a sharp rebuttal from TIM WALZ, who called his response a “damning non-answer.”

POLITICO’s MYAH WARD and ADAM CANCRYN report that the two vice presidential candidates spent their 90-minute debate defending their running mates’ records: "They were less successful promoting their bosses’ plans for the future."

POLITICO’s take: "It was a very Midwestern debate. And Vance won."

More from our D.C. colleagues:

All of the things they agreed on during the debate

8 body language tells

The big takeaway: Neither candidate delivered the goods

MEDIA ROOM

Canada Foreign Minister Melanie Joly addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Foreign Minister Melanie Joly addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly on Monday. | AP

— The Toronto Star's TONDA MACCHARLES breaks down Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY's current thinking on the conflict raging in the Middle East.

— Mental Health and Addictions Minister YA'ARA SAKS says Planned Parenthood Ottawa uninvited her for a visit over her views on Israel, reports the Globe's STEPHANIE LEVITZ.

— Cenovus President and CEO JON MCKENZIE told CARL MEYER of The Narwhal that an oil and gas emissions cap would further divide Canadians.

— “The gamesmanship leaves me feeling cold, and it’s one thing I won’t miss when I leave the Senate,” Sen. FRANCES LANKIN tells The Hill Times in an exit interview.

LAURA TRETHEWEY reports for Maclean’s on the Ring of Fire and the brewing battle between First Nations, prospectors and the provincial government.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: No honeymoon at NATO.

In other news for Pro readers: 

U.S. Treasury aims to publish final clean hydrogen rules by year end.

Kavanaugh warns against reading too much into Chevron’s demise.

POLITICO Pro Q&A: US Chief Agricultural Negotiator Doug McKalip.

White House won’t step in to avert dockworker strike.

Judge rules feds failed to consider pollution risk of Alaska gold mine.

PLAYBOOKERS

Movers and shakers: VICTORIA LENNOX, co-founder of Startup Canada, is seeking the Conservative Party nomination in Ottawa Centre … Lawyer KATHRYN MARSHALL launched her own firm: Marshall Law.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way.

Spotted: New Bloc MP LOUIS-PHILIPPE SAUVÉ, taking his seat in the House on Tuesday.

Conservative MP FRANK CAPUTO, appealing for “a bit more quiet” during members’ statements ahead of QP.

Organigram CEO BEENA GOLDENBERG, ROSE LifeScience COO BRIAN STEVENSON and your Playbook host, onstage at Canadian Cannabis Leadership Summit 2024. Topic of conversation: the excise tax rate on cannabis products that licensed producers are lobbying to change.

Noted: GT & Co's COLE HOGAN ran the numbers on federal political party digital ad spending — and calculated an enormous CPC advantage: "I'd get ready to see that mountain ad everywhere."

 

A message from Universities Canada:

Canada’s reputation as a leading destination for international students is in jeopardy due to recent federal policy changes aimed at reducing student permits. While it’s crucial to address housing and immigration challenges, these measures are hindering Canada’s universities’ ability to attract global talent, sustain university funding and advance research. International students are essential to Canada’s future economy and innovation. It’s time to restore Canada’s legacy as a global education leader. Learn more.

 
ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here. 

12 p.m. Alberta Health Minister ADRIANA LAGRANGE and Nunavut Health Minister JOHN MAIN are on the witness roster for the Senate social affairs committee as it studies pharmacare.

4:30 p.m. The House international trade committee will study the CBSA Assessment and Revenue Management system with input from the Canadian Association of Importers and Exporters, the Canadian Society of Customs Brokers, Deloitte, Federal Express Canada Ltd. and UPS Canada.

4:30 p.m. Emergency Preparedness Minister HARJIT S. SAJJAN will be at the House environment committee to discuss the Jasper wildfires.

4:15 p.m. Liberal MP WILSON MIAO will appear at the House banking and commerce committee to discuss Bill C-244.

4:15 p.m. The Senate foreign affairs committee will study Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa.

4:15 p.m. The Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee continues its study of Bill S-256 and Canada Post.

4:15 p.m. The Senate social affairs committee holds its second meeting of the day on pharmacare. The roster includes senior officials from Innovative Medicines Canada, Canadian Generic Pharmaceutical Association, Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association, Canadian Chamber of Commerce and Canadian Labour Congress.

4:30 p.m. The House status of women committee continues its study of coercive behavior. 

4:30 p.m. The University of Calgary’s TREVOR TOMBE will be at the House natural resources committee as its study of the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension continues.

4:30 p.m. Cassie Doyle, board director of Sustainable Development Technology Canada, will be at the House public accounts committee.

6:45 p.m. The Senate Indigenous Peoples committee will study the implementation of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act.

6:45 p.m. The Senate national finance committee continues its examination of Main Estimates.

6:45 p.m. The Senate transport and communications committee will take Bill S-269 through clause-by-clause consideration.

Behind closed doors: The Senate ethics committee will meet at 1:30 p.m. The House heritage committee will focus on a study on tech giants and intimidation tactics.

TRIVIA


Tuesday’s answer: EMILY STOWE was Canada's first female doctor. She founded Woman’s Medical College, which opened Oct. 1, 1883.

Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MARCEL MARCOTTE, MORGAN SWAN, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, LISA KIRBIE, RAY DEL BIANCO and JOHN ECKER.  

Wednesday’s question: On this date in history, how did the U.S. Supreme Court make history?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to advertise in Ottawa Playbook? Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

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POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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