SHOOT FOR THE GUTTERS: Gov. Kathy Hochul has made her prediction for Election Day. “Minimum three,” the Democratic governor said, when asked how many New York House seats she’d like her party to flip on Election Day. “Make sure you put Tom Suozzi in my win column,” she said grinning. “OK? I’m starting with a plus one.” Hochul offered the projection while engaging in some lighthearted banter with reporters as she was leaving an unrelated event in Poughkeepsie. (The Kamala Harris surrogate also said she’s “feeling great,” six days out.) While she sounded carefree, the governor knows how critical the stakes are. The fate of the House, and possibly her own political future, will be decided next week. Hochul was governor — and de facto head of the well-funded state party — when Democrats lost four House seats in 2022. She beat her own GOP challenger that year by an historically narrow margin, signaling her political and electoral weakness. Since then, she has hustled to help her party vie to snag five seats from Republican incumbents. Her math either matches conventional wisdom or lowers expectations, depending on your interpretation of her comments. Suozzi, a Democrat who regained his Long Island seat from Republican George Santos in a special election in February, is expected to win next week. If Hochul is counting him into her total, that makes hers a less-than-bullish prediction for the battlegrounds.
- Rep. Nick LaLota is in position to defeat Democrat John Avlon on Eastern Long Island.
- Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is viewed as vulnerable to a challenge from Democrat Laura Gillen in Nassau County.
- Rep. Marc Molinaro’s upstate seat is also seen as gettable for Democrat Josh Riley.
- Rep. Brandon Williams holds a seat Democrats have their best chance nationally of flipping.
- Rep. Mike Lawler is likely to fend off a challenge from Mondaire Jones for the Lower Hudson Valley seat Democrats were initially bullish on flipping.
Democrats express confidence about Gillen, Riley and John Mannion — Williams’ challenger. Some privately acknowledge Jones and Avlon have tougher chances.
Lawler’s district moved from a “toss-up” to “lean Republican” rating in a Cook Political Report update last week, and a poll found him up five points over Jones. So with LaLota’s expected win and Lawler’s now-likely victory, that leaves just three seats for Democrats to pick up. Hochul is saying her party will win two of them — unless she meant she anticipates winning three seats in addition to Suozzi’s. The latter would put her expectations on par with New York politicos. But it’s hardly optimistic, given she’s essentially conceding at least two seats before Election Day. “More than you think,” the governor subsequently remarked today, hedging after her initial prediction. “I was going to say that’s my answer to you. More than you think.” She then walked out the door. Until now, Hochul firmly refused to say how many seats New York Democrats need to flip to declare victory — even as she makes it clear winning back seats is the number one, unequivocal, without-a-doubt top priority of her’s and the state party, which she leads. Winning back seats would also vindicate Hochul in the eyes of Washington powerbrokers. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi twice went out of her way to blame the governor for Democrats’ loss of the House in 2022. Meanwhile, Hochul has boasted that the Democrats’ battleground operation in New York is comparable to the size of a presidential campaign’s in a swing state, with huge numbers of volunteers, campaign offices and cash from the state party flowing to down-ballot Dems. “I remember the days when the NY Democrats said they would flip 5 seats,” Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik said in a statement texted to Playbook. “As usual and just in time, Kathy Hochul pours cold water on Democrat enthusiasm and turnout. Kathy Hochul is the least popular NY Governor in history and has been an anchor for Democrats on every Congressional race in the state… Thanks KATHY!” — Jason Beeferman | 
