| | | | |  | | By Ursula Perano | | Presented by |  | | | With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team
|  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., center, is joined by left to right: Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., and Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, as he offers remarks following the Senate Republican policy luncheon at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.) | AP | | THE BURDEN OF LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS Believe it or not, the closely watched Senate Republican conference elections are just two weeks away, with the race to succeed Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell set to be among the most consequential leadership fights Capitol Hill has seen in years. But there’s a lot more on the Senate GOP ticket this year, with a host of lower-rung leadership positions also up for grabs. Here’s where things stand as the clock ticks down …. First, that leader race: As long anticipated, Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and John Cornyn (R-S.D.) are in a dogfight to assume the McConnell mantle. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is running as well and has deep ties to the conservative wing of the conference, but one knowledgeable senator told Inside Congress he’ll be an also-ran. “It'll be between Thune and Cornyn,” said the senator, who was granted anonymity to candidly describe the state of the race. “They both have really good things they could each bring. It would be nice if you could combine them.” Both Johns have been traveling the country with GOP candidates and incumbents, hoping to shore up their support, while also playing tit-for-tat in fundraising numbers. The outcome of the presidential race remains a X-factor, though, particularly if Donald Trump wins. Thune has spoken out against Trump in the past and originally endorsed against him in the GOP presidential primary, backing Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) instead before switching to Trump in February. But Thune has been doing some work to shore up his relationship with the former president: The two met at Mar-a-Lago in March and have spoken several times since then, including as recently as last week, per a person familiar with the conversations. Cornyn has also had his share of choice words against Trump over the years but arguably has a smaller gap to bridge with the former and potentially future president. Cornyn did not endorse in the GOP presidential primary until backing Trump in January. The Texan has also kept in touch with Trump, including in person last week in Texas and earlier this month in Nevada. NRSC chair: Tim Scott is the only serious contender to lead the National Republican Senatorial Committee right now, according to three people familiar with the race. Already a talented fundraiser, the folksy South Carolinian now has a presidential run under his belt, which helped him broaden his GOP donor ties. That being said, nothing is final until it’s final. Scott is a potential chair of the Senate Banking Committee should Republicans retake the majority, which could exponentially increase his workload and influence in the chamber. Speaking of NRSC chairs: Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) made it official in an interview with Semafor today that he will not run for GOP leader. Multiple people we’ve heard from recently said there had been growing sense inside the conference that Daines, the current NRSC chair, wasn’t particularly interested in the job. He’d been floated by some as a potential dark horse candidate, especially if he manages to secure a Senate GOP majority this November. Still, hopping in the race at this point would have been difficult: The existing candidates have already been courting votes for months. In other races: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) remains unchallenged in the race for GOP whip. And Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) are still set to face off for conference chair, the No. 3 spot. — Ursula Perano, with an assist from Jordain Carney GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Oct. 30, where we are relishing in the final two weeks of recess. Everyone please go outside and pretend Twitter doesn’t exist.
| | | | A message from BAE Systems: Last year, the U.S. experienced 28 natural disasters that resulted in at least $1B dollars each in damages, according to NOAA. With NOAA’s Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program weather and environmental forecasting technologies will be enhanced, which will support meteorologists, emergency managers, and safeguard public health, ultimately strengthening the security and economic resilience of our Nation. Through extensive studies, cost-benefit analyses, and user community engagements, NOAA selected instruments for GeoXO that would drive economic and societal benefits into the 2050s. Learn more. | | | LEST WE FORGET THE DEMOCRATS Don’t worry, Democrats: We have some gut checks for you, too. While the Senate Democratic Caucus likely won’t vote until early December, in keeping with recent cycles, key races are taking shape … Whip: Yes, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) is running for whip again, hoping to extend his tenure in the No. 2 job past the 20-year mark. Durbin, a spokesperson said, “hopes his colleagues will allow him to continue in the position in the new Congress.” There is no indication he’ll face a challenge. Durbin, who will turn 80 in November, has not yet announced if he’ll run for reelection in 2026; Illinois has several young Democratic electeds that would surely jump at the chance to fill his seat. Three is the magic number: There will be an opening for Senate Democrats’ policy and communications chair later this year, the No. 3 spot currently held by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) are still seen as front-runners for this role. DSCC chair: Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is openly gunning for the campaign committee post, and no one else has publicly expressed any interest in challenging her. Gillibrand, like Tim Scott, previously ran for president and knows the national stage. She also knows tough races, having entered Congress by flipping a Republican-held House seat. Senate Democrats have an ambitious map in 2026, with competitive opportunities in Texas and North Carolina, both states Democrats have eyed for a long time. More could be added to that list as member retirements roll in. — Ursula Perano
| | | | A message from BAE Systems:   | | | EXCLUSIVE: STAFFER GONE WILD A campaign aide to Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde has posted numerous conspiracy theories on social media since joining his campaign, including that Hurricane Helene was possibly created by the government to target Republicans and that Democrats aren’t human beings. Karen Griebenow, a regional director for Hovde who is listed on FEC records as being paid by his campaign, on Oct. 7 tweeted: “I’m not a conspiracy theorists [sic], just the fact that our Government has the capability of ‘cloud seeding ‘ and that we had Hurricane Helena and are now having another Storm to hit Florida , these are Mostly Red States���� Voting Republican?? Thoughts”. On Aug. 18, after she had joined Hovde’s campaign, she retweeted a message saying that people could not be both “a Christian and a Democrat” or “a human being and a Democrat.” She has also said that Jan. 6 was staged and that the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate and Arizona gubernatorial elections were stolen and retweeted an Oct. 19 post saying Barack Obama was gay, Michelle Obama was a “dude” and that “elites drink babies blood.” Asked about the comments, a Hovde spokesperson said Griebenow was “a junior level staffer whose sole job is to help with grassroots volunteers” and pointed to reports about controversy surrounding a staffer employed by Democratic opponent Tammy Baldwin. After Inside Congress asked Griebenow about her X posts, she made her account private. She said in an email, “Freedom of Speech is the First Amendment. Which allows me to post ,& tweet.” — Daniel Lippman
| | | | A message from BAE Systems: In 2018, weather-related airline delays cost the airline industry $18.9B. NOAA’s GeoXO Sounder (GXS) data can help reduce these delays – even a 1% reduction in airline delay costs would equate to $2B annually, according to NOAA. Real-time dynamic weather data is essential for reliable early warnings, but currently unavailable. GXS will enable “nowcasting” and increase tornado and hurricane forecasting accuracy by 40%, helping to save billions of dollars. Learn how GXS data is expected to improve sensing rates ten-fold over current observations. | | | EXCLUSIVE: BOLD PAC BREAKS RECORDS The Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm has raised $18.6 million, the largest sum in the PAC’s 23-year-history, Inside Congress has learned. BOLD PAC is the largest PAC dedicated to boosting Hispanic Democratic incumbents and candidates and has been helping top party leaders in their effort to win back the House majority. The group has also transferred record-breaking funds to its independent expenditure, bringing the total budget to be spent exclusively on Hispanic Democrats to $6.15 million. “With this unprecedented investment, BOLD PAC is not only paving the way for Latino representation in Congress but also standing shoulder-to-shoulder with communities that deserve champions who understand their needs and are dedicated to the fight for a brighter future for all Latinos,” said its chair, Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.). — Daniella Diaz
| | | | A bipartisan group of lawmakers, including top appropriators Tom Cole and Rosa DeLauro, traveled to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Katherine Clark made the ASU Sun Devil hand sign It's #cornwatch #soybeanwatch with Chuck Grassley Jennifer Wexton and Barbara Comstock did a joint interview
| | | | REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here. | | | | | QUICK LINKS Old and new energy do battle in New Mexico, from Josh Siegel This swing district is flush with Biden climate cash. Dems are struggling anyway, from Jordan Wolman Nebraska independent reasserts he won’t caucus with Dems after erroneous outside group fundraising appeal, from Jordain Carney ‘Paul McCartney is still rocking’: Ed Markey defends choice to run for third term at age 80, from Samantha J. Gross at The Boston Globe Military-heavy Virginia swing district has become late battleground, from Gregory S. Schneider at The Washington Post Senate Republicans could block Trump from putting RFK Jr. in the Cabinet , from Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett at Semafor TRANSITIONS Sara Lasure is now the minority comms director for the Senate Agriculture Committee. She most recently was comms director for Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.). Blake Phillips has been promoted to be scheduler for Rep. Tracey Mann (R-Kan.). He most recently was communications/advance assistant for Mann. TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are not in session. THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL Zzzzzzz.
| | TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Bob Koczera was the first to correctly answer that since the advent of the modern political party system in 1857, the longest continuous period of Senate control was Democrats from 1955 to 1981. TODAY’S QUESTION, from Bob: Which two states use ranked-choice voting in non-special federal elections? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening. | | | | Follow us | | | | |
