| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by Zelle® | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | ATTENTION BEDWETTERS — DAVID PLOUFFE spoke to N.Y. Mag’s Gabriel Debenedetti to address the raft of public polls last week showing a tightening presidential race: “At the end of the day, this is a race in which we’ve seen enormous steadiness in our own data, and slow improvement through August, through September. Right now we’re sitting at a very close race in all seven battleground states, where you’d rather be KAMALA HARRIS than DONALD TRUMP , because she’s got a slightly higher ceiling. … “This is going to be close. And this one may be close in more states than we’ve seen in a long time. We could have six, seven states come down to a point, point-and-a-half. That’s probably where this is headed.” SECOND DRAFT OF HISTORY — “How Nancy Pelosi Ripped Off the Band-Aid for Democrats to Force Joe Biden Out,” by Jonathan Alter in Vanity Fair, from his forthcoming book “American Reckoning” ($29.95): “[NANCY] PELOSI expected that BILL CLINTON, BARACK OBAMA, and the Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill would stage an intervention. ‘But the men were MIA,’ one insider told me. ‘She wasn’t happy that the only bloody fingerprints on the knife were hers.’”
|  VP Kamala Harris is launching a set of new policy proposals aimed directly at Black men. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | | HARRIS’ DEMOGRAPHIC DEFICIT — With 22 days left until Election Day, Harris is undertaking an all-out blitz to try and shore up her standing among Black men — whose well-documented softening toward Democrats could derail her run for the White House. Today, Harris is launching a set of new policy proposals aimed directly at the constituency, Eugene and Brakkton Booker report this morning:
- Offering 1 million small business loans forgivable up to $20,000;
- Providing training and mentorship programs to prepare Black men for jobs in “high-demand” industries; and
- Focusing on health issues that disproportionately affect Black men.
Harris is also sitting down this week with popular Black media personalities. Interviews with journalist ROLAND MARTIN and the Shade Room posted this morning, and tomorrow in Detroit she will tape a town hall with “Breakfast Club” co-host CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD. Also on tap are organizing events tailored to Black men, a flight of new ads that feature local testimonials and “Black Men Huddle Up” events this week in Charlotte, Detroit, Atlanta and Philly. Harris spent time yesterday at Koinonia Christian Center, a predominantly African American church in Greenville, North Carolina — a key battleground state where Black voters are crucial to Democratic success. Taken together, it’s firm evidence that the Harris campaign is concerned by the precarious polling among Black voters, which shows support for Harris recovering from where it was for President JOE BIDEN early this summer — but not consistently where it was for Biden when he narrowly beat Trump in 2020. Recent numbers from NYT/Siena found Harris drawing 78 percent support among Black voters overall, versus roughly 90 percent support for Democrats in recent presidential cycles, with most of the slippage happening among men. A new CBS poll has better figures for Democrats, with 87 percent favoring Harris (the same Biden pulled in 2020), albeit with that warning that “the likelihood of turnout for Black voters lags that of White voters, suggesting perhaps there is more for Harris’ campaign to do in activating these voters.” The picture painted by these numbers isn’t an exodus of Black men to Trump, necessarily, but an erosion that could spell disaster in a close election decided in states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan with Black populations of 15 percent or more.
| | | | A message from Zelle®: 99.95% of Zelle® transactions in 2023 were completed without any report of fraud or scams. Learn more. | | | The Harris campaign understands they have to try to address years of damage done to the party’s standing in a matter of weeks, principal deputy campaign manager QUENTIN FULKS told us. “I think that there’s been Black men who have seen some of these things culturally in our society, and they see that when there are problems with other subgroups, solutions move faster. There’s direct responses to it, and that is not always the case” for Black men, he said, calling for a “reprioritization” in speaking to both Black men and Black women. Harris, to be fair, has been mindful of how the Democratic Party has spoken to Black men for some time. She has hosted dinner conversations at the VP’s residence, roundtables about economic opportunities and a national economic tour, all tailored to that group, and campaign aides are quick to remind skeptics that its first paid media buys were targeted at Black and Latino voters. But Fulks acknowledged a broader reticence to target both policies and rhetoric specifically to Black men, which has created a sense of being left behind by political elites: “A lot of the issues that they feel like they’re faced with, they sort of fall to the wayside. And then they’re never to sort of be spoken about again until somebody revives them or another incident happens.” Now, with just three weeks till Election Day, Harris is faced with walking a tightrope — doing everything she can to rebuild the coalition that elected Biden and Obama while also being sensitive to the notion that Black men could be being “scapegoated” before the election even takes place (an impression that wasn’t helped when Obama last week suggested some Black men weren’t comfortable voting for a woman). “We don’t have any data to show that Black men won’t vote for women, but we do have data that says they will, because 82 percent of Black men voted for HILLARY CLINTON in 2016,” Charlamagne tha God said, noting that more white women voted for Trump than for Democrats in 2016 and 2020: “Nobody’s ever scolded white women. Nobody’s ever gone out there and said, ‘White women, why are you voting against your interests?’” Meanwhile, some Democrats are warning about a potential forest-for-the-trees blunder. . Former Obama pollster CORNELL BELCHER notes that the gender gap among Black voters is considerably less than it is among other groups. And what remains absolutely true is that Black support overall for Harris is head and shoulders above any other demographic group and has to be juiced to the max regardless of gender. “I’m not worried about the 14 percent of Black men who may vote for Donald Trump. That’s fool’s gold,” he said. “I’m more concerned if African-American turnout in Milwaukee … runs 10 or more points behind that of white voters. That’s how she loses this race.” Related reads: “Harris’s Final Challenge: Restore a Splintering Democratic Coalition,” by NYT’s Jennifer Medina, Katie Glueck and Ruth Igielnik … “Young men’s economic prospects are shifting, along with their politics,” by NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece and Jake Traylor Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels. ANOTHER SWING DEMO — “Harris campaign targets Republicans in Arizona with new ad,” by Meridith McGraw: “The new spot, shared first with POLITICO, is part of the Harris campaign’s $370 million advertising buy between Labor Day and Election Day and will begin airing on Monday on local Arizona broadcasts and networks including Fox News Channel. … The ad featuring the Republican mayor of Mesa is part of the Harris campaign’s broader outreach to GOP voters in the state.” THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Biden visits Philadelphia for a political event. Harris campaigns in Detroit. Trump delivers economic addresses in Chicago and Atlanta. Texas Senate candidates TED CRUZ and COLIN ALLRED debate. Pennsylvania Senate candidates BOB CASEY and DAVID McCORMICK debate. Quarterly FEC filing deadline. … Wednesday: Trump holds campaign rally in Duluth, Georgia. Univision airs Trump town hall. Fox News airs Trump town hall. … Thursday: Harris campaigns in Wisconsin. Trump response to special counsel's immunity brief due in D.C. election interference case. Alfred E. Smith Memorial Dinner held in NYC. Nevada Senate candidates JACKY ROSEN and SAM BROWN debate. … Friday: Harris campaigns in Michigan. Wisconsin Senate candidates TAMMY BALDWIN and ERIC HOVDE debate.
| | | | A message from Zelle®:   Anti-fraud countermeasures like real-time monitoring and detection are on all day, every day as we work to stay ahead of scams and fraud: https://www.zellepay.com/safety-education | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden received the President’s Daily Brief this morning. On the trail Harris will travel to Erie, Pennsylvania, where she’ll stop at a small business to talk with Black men and then hold a rally at 7:35 p.m. She’ll head to Detroit at night. Trump will hold a town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, at 6 p.m. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will campaign in Eau Claire and Green Bay, Wisconsin, with Wisconsin Gov. TONY EVERS and Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER.
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| |  Donald Trump unveiled a new policy pledge to add 10,000 more Border Patrol agents. | Alex Brandon, File/AP Photo | FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH — A pair of notable Trump comments yesterday highlighted both the political strengths and weaknesses that have helped keep this presidential race so tight. Trump unveiled a new policy pledge to add 10,000 more Border Patrol agents, along with working on raises and bonuses, at his rally in Prescott Valley, Arizona, the Arizona Republic reports . He also landed the endorsement of the National Border Patrol Council, the union for 16,000 agents. This kind of targeted, tough-on-immigration message has proven a valuable political tool for Republicans, as the electorate has moved substantially to the right on the issue. But Trump also said the military should step in on Election Day to take care of “the enemy from within,” including Democratic rivals like California Rep. ADAM SCHIFF, in an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” per CNN. This, of course, is the kind of anti-democratic rhetoric that has repeatedly turned off moderate voters. Nonetheless, NYT’s Shawn McCreesh reports from Detroit that many Trump supporters simply don’t believe he’s really serious about targeting his political opponents. RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE HOW NORMS ERODE — Trump has yet again refused to release his tax records this year — but now that it’s the third straight time he’s done so, outrage and attention seem to have faded, Brian Faler reports . It’s notable because the details could have presented political vulnerabilities in the campaign, and conflict-of-interest questions would have loomed especially with a major tax fight coming in Washington next year. In North Carolina yesterday, Harris specifically called out Trump for not releasing his medical records, along with his refusal to debate or sit for tough interviews with the nonpartisan press, The News & Observer’s Tammy Grubb and Avi Bajpai report. WORKING THE REFS — “Trump goes to war against real-time fact checks,” by WaPo’s Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey SOMETHING BORROWED — A new WSJ survey of economists finds that they expect inflation, deficits and interest rates to be higher under Trump than under Harris, Paul Kiernan and Anthony DeBarros report. EXAMINING HARRIS’ RECORD — “Kamala Harris Got $5 Billion for Electric School Buses. They Are Slowly Hitting the Road,” by WSJ’s Katy Stech Ferek and Sara Randazzo in Fancy Gap, Virginia … “As Harris makes case for presidency, her record as prosecutor draws fresh scrutiny,” by CNN’s Scott Glover, Curt Devine, Kyung Lah and Daniel Medina THE VIEW FROM OMAHA — Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District voted for Trump in 2016. So why, after redistricting made it a bit redder, does it appear to be out of reach for him now? On the ground for POLITICO Magazine, Kathy Gilsinan reports that the MAGA brand of Republicanism is a poor fit for the area’s independent voters, while state party infighting has given Harris a boost. GOP Rep. DON BACON says Harris is outspending Trump 18 to 1. THE VIEW FROM SAUK COUNTY — “In Rural Wisconsin, Race Is an Undercurrent of the Presidential Election,” by NYT’s Dionne Searcey in Baraboo THE VIEW FROM CHARLOTTE — Repeatedly low turnout in left-leaning Mecklenburg County has helped Republicans win North Carolina by small margins cycle after cycle. But a much better-funded and more organized local Democratic Party is trying to turn the tide this year, NYT’s Eduardo Medina reports, while Republicans hope to offset it by driving up rural turnout. ONE BIG QUESTION MARK — “The Ground Game: Harris’s Turnout Machine vs. Trump’s Unproven Alliance,” by NYT’s Lisa Lerer, Julie Bosman, Kellen Browning, Maya King and Jonathan Weisman RACE FOR THE HOUSE THE NEW GOP — Rep. MARC MOLINARO (R-N.Y.) has long presented himself as a pragmatist moderate. But in a tight reelection race, he’s veering hard right on immigration, even spreading misinformation about Haitians eating pets, NYT’s Grace Ashford reports. Molinaro says he’s representing constituents who are “furious.” But the pivot has confounded “his allies as well as some institutional supporters.” CASH DASH — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON pulled in $27.5 million in the third quarter, Punchbowl’s Melania Zanona reports. That’s “a new record for a Republican speaker during that period of time in a presidential year.” RACE FOR THE STATES DOWN BALLOT — The state legislative races in November could be especially pivotal in a handful of states where one party’s supermajority is either in jeopardy or within reach, including Kansas, North Carolina and Nevada, AP’s John Hanna and David Lieb report from Shawnee, Kansas. Even though outright chamber flips are unlikely in these states, crossing the veto-proof threshold could effect a significant power shift. CLIMATE FILES — Washington state voters will decide next month whether to repeal a landmark climate regulation limiting emissions, AP’s Hallie Golden reports from Seattle. Opponents of the policy have hammered it for high energy/gas prices. POLL POSITION THE INTERNALS — Ally Mutnick obtained internal polling from the Senate GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which shows a mixed bag of results. The good for Republicans: TIM SHEEHY leads Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) by 4 points, which is probably all the GOP needs to flip the chamber. Hovde and McCormick have pulled within 1 and 2 points, respectively, in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The bad: Cruz is ahead by just 1 point in Texas. Nebraska is “a serious trouble-spot.” And Democrats have decent leads in Ohio (!), Michigan, Arizona, Maryland and Nevada. The full memo, including presidential numbers FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new 1892 poll for the NRCC shows Rep. MIKE LEVIN (D-Calif.) in a tight reelection race: He leads Republican MATT GUNDERSON 46 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error. The GOP survey finds Gunderson with a big lead among independents. The polling memo
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West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is facing absenteeism grumbles in the state capital. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | 5 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. MISSING JUSTICE: “Inside Jim Justice’s alleged attendance problems; they could be a problem for a GOP Senate,” by Ursula Perano: “The current governor is rarely seen at the state capitol in Charleston, according to interviews with almost a dozen people involved in West Virginia politics on both sides of the political aisle. Some said it was difficult to get in touch with him when they sought guidance on his policy positions. … Some West Virginia politicos said they are concerned about whether [JIM] JUSTICE is committed to the demands of commuting between their state and Washington regularly. … Three people interviewed for this article repeated … health concerns.” 2. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: In a major new step to protect Israel from attacks, the U.S. is sending a big anti-missile THAAD interceptor system, WSJ’s Michael Gordon, Lara Seligman and Nancy Youssef report . A group of U.S. soldiers will be deployed to Israel as well to operate the system. The Pentagon’s move was announced as tensions between Israel and Iran are very high, and the U.S. is also trying to influence Israel’s decisions about retaliatory strikes against Iran. Related read: “US officials attend Gaza aid meetings on site of Israeli prison accused of ‘horrific’ torture,” by the Guardian’s Jonathan Guyer
| | | | A message from Zelle®:   Pay it safe with Zelle®. https://www.zellepay.com/safety-education | | | 3. STURM UND DRANG: In Florida yesterday, Biden toured the damage from Hurricane Milton and pledged that the federal government would help locals’ recovery, per Reuters. One thing he didn’t do: meet with Gov. RON DeSANTIS, who skipped the president’s briefing just like he did after Hurricane Helene, Zach Montellaro reports. Officials and experts are still sorting through what went so wrong with Helene in North Carolina. A new analysis from WaPo’s Kevin Crowe, Shannon Osaka and John Muyskens shows that FEMA flood maps significantly failed to anticipate the potential risk in the mountainous western part of the state. Meanwhile, the federal recovery process hit a snag this weekend in Rutherford County after reports of an “armed militia” threatening FEMA workers, which forced them to move elsewhere, WaPo’s Brianna Sacks reports from Lake Lure. 4. KASH MONEY: “Kash Patel: The Magical Rise of a Self-Described ‘Wizard’ in Trump World,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Williamson: “A bombastic former public defender known for his antipathy toward the intelligence agencies, [KASH] PATEL … has been mentioned alongside many others as a potential C.I.A. director, attorney general or, if he fails Senate confirmation, a top job on the National Security Council. … Mr. Patel has long made clear his intentions to help purge the federal government and media of ‘conspirators.’” 5. HOT ON THE LEFT — AND THE STREET: The fight to shape Harris’ economic plans and agenda is on between the populist left, emboldened by the Biden administration’s aggressive moves on antitrust and reform, and the corporate center-left that hopes Harris would be more business-friendly. Billionaire Harris ally MARK CUBAN strongly wants SEC Chair GARY GENSLER to be ousted — and perhaps to step into the role himself, Declan Harty reports . And Wall Street executives have been working to shape some of Harris’ policy plans on the trail, including through TONY WEST and BRIAN NELSON, NYT’s Andrew Duehren and Lauren Hirsch report.
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson won the Nobel Prize in Economics. Doug Hamlin is facing questions about whether he was once involved in a “sadistic” cat killing. Eric Schmitt won’t vie for NRSC chair, but Tim Scott is interested. Tom Kean Jr. and Sue Altman both believe in extraterrestrial life. Bill Clinton visited his happy place. Huizenganom[e]non is the word of the day. IN MEMORIAM — “Lilly Ledbetter, Whose Fight for Equal Pay Changed U.S. Law, Dies at 86,” by NYT’s Claire Moses: “Ms. Ledbetter filed a charge with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission in 1998 and a lawsuit against Goodyear in 1999. … The case made it all the way to the Supreme Court, which in 2007 ruled in favor of Goodyear in a 5-4 decision. … Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s dissenting opinion, Ms. Ledbetter said, inspired her to take the case to Congress. In 2009, Congress approved legislation that expanded workers’ rights to sue in such cases.” MEDIA MOVE — Timothy Nerozzi is now foreign affairs reporter at the Washington Examiner. He was previously a news writer at Fox News Digital. WEDDING — Nick Gillespie, editor at large for Reason, and Sarah Siskind, an entrepreneur, got married recently at the Blue Room in NYC. Leonard Robinson officiated, and the evening was catered by Chipotle. Pic … SPOTTED: Darren Aronofsky, Bari Weiss and Nellie Bowles, Suzy Weiss, David Nott, Molly Jong-Fast, Jonathan Farber, Davis Richardson, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Ted Barnett, Melanie Craft, Gerry Ohrstrom, Eli Lake and Nancy Rommelmann. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.) (7-0) … CBS’ Bob Costa … R Street’s Eli Lehrer … POLITICO’s Bianca Quilantan and Erin Aulov … Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute … Marisa Aleguas … Emily Atkin … Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government … Ira Shapiro … Tucker Foote of Mastercard … Melissa Maxfield … CNN’s Annie Grayer … FGS Global’s Mike Feldman … Marshall Yates … Daniel Castro of the Center for Data Innovation … Chris May of Quadrant Advisory … “Cali” Chris Okey … Microsoft’s Dave Leichtman ... Brian Bond … Anang Mittal … Chris Walker … DOJ’s Emma Dulaney … Isabel Milán … Grace Christin … AP’s Stephen Ohlemacher Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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