What we heard in Halifax

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Nov 25, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Inside the rooms at the Halifax International Security Forum.

→ One on one with Canada’s military and foreign policy influencers.

→ A new Business Council of Canada plan for accelerated defense spending — just as JUSTIN TRUDEAU heads to Montreal for the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

Talk of the town


HALIFAX DEBRIEF — The polished chaos of Canada's most prominent security confab churned out rooms full of scratchy throats.

The thing about the Halifax International Security Forum is that everybody talks for three days straight: on-the-record panels, off-the-record dinners, corridor conversations, late-night schmoozes. The Western alliance, breaking bread free of adversaries' prying eyes.

The odyssey begins with an airport shuttle and gets cozy at the Westin Nova Scotian, tricked out for visiting military leaders, politicians, diplomats, academics and journalists. Organizers add a dash of style: HFX watermarks, comfy chairs, slick intro videos.

The Halifax forum is less massive than the Munich Security Conference, and its emphasis on continental and transatlantic issues distinguishes it from Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue.

It's intimate, if that's possible for a hotel packed with uniforms.

— The best rooms: Where the bilats happen. Organizers block off rooms on the Westin's first three floors and soup them up. Anybody who matters books wall-to-wall bilateral meetings, which they typically describe as "frank" and "open."

Exhibit A: Defense Minister BILL BLAIR sat down with Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho). Blair wants to "accelerate" Canada's defense spending in order to hit NATO's target before 2032. Risch wants Canada to just hit the target already — which he said outright onstage.

Frank, open, etc.

— Conversion starters: Playbook spent the weekend listening in. The best talker we heard was all about PIERRE POILIEVRE: If he wins power, who will the Tory leader tap for sensitive ambassadorial gigs in China and India? Send us your best guesses.

PLAYBOOK ONE-ON-ONES


POLITICO sat down for interviews with key Canadian and international voices at the Halifax International Security Forum. Here's some of what we heard.

Gen. Jennie Carignan speaks to delegates at the Halifax International Security Forum.

" I can’t believe that in 2024 we still have to justify the contribution of women to their defense and to their service in their country,” Canadian military chief Gen. Jennie Carignan said at the Halifax International Security Forum on Saturday. | Kelly Clark, The Canadian Press

JENNIE CARIGNAN — Canada's top soldier earned a standing ovation Saturday morning when she stood up for women in the military.

Carignan opened a panel by countering Risch's assertion on Friday that the "jury’s still out" on how to resolve "unique situations" created by women in combat.

Risch was responding to defense secretary nominee PETE HEGSETH's recent claim that women and combat don't mix.

Can you explain your process in crafting your response to the senator's remarks?

I've been dealing with this type of statement for the past 39 years. I don't control what people think and what people are going to say, but what I control is how I respond to it, and the "how" is very important.

You need to understand who the audience is. Two days ago, when I was sitting in the room when [Risch] made his statement, I watched the people's faces across the room. The look of dismay. The look of disappointment. Immediately I said to myself, "Well, I probably will have the opportunity to say something about it, and I'll find a time during the weekend to do it."

As I looked at the schedule for the next day — ah, I have a plenary session. Not knowing at all what the response would be. Sometimes it falls totally flat, sometimes there's no reaction. The important piece for me was not to leave it as is without a counter-perspective.

Pros can read our full conversation, in which Carignan reflects on her lessons learned as a defense chief working with a government driven in part by politics.

MÉLANIE JOLY — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) has recently talked about introducing legislation that would sanction any country that abets the International Criminal Court's intent to arrest Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and former Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT over alleged war crimes.

Canada has vowed to "abide by" the ICC arrest warrant. POLITICO's ROBBIE GRAMER put a few questions on the topic to the foreign minister.

What's your response to Sen. Graham? Does it put Canada in an even more uncomfortable position with the incoming administration?

Canada will take its decision. Then the U.S. will take its decision.

But you could face sanctions from the United States.

We abide by international norms, including the fact that we're a founding member of the ICC.

Are you saying the U.S. does not abide by international norms in its response?

The U.S. is not part of the ICC treaty.

But even if you're not a party to the treaty, there is something about international norms here, right?

We've worked for decades on the issue of international accountability. We thought that for an international rules-based system to work, we needed an important pillar of accountability, which was the International Criminal Court. My colleague, LLOYD AXWORTHY who used to be the minister of foreign affairs in the 1990s, worked a lot on this issue.

For us, it is not a political question. It is a legal question, and it is part also of our own legal system that we respect the jurisdiction of the ICC. Period.

Pros can read our full conversation, including Joly's view on whether or not negotiations with Putin can bear fruit in Ukraine.

BILL BLAIR — Playbook asked the defense minister about the drumbeat of oft-controversial DONALD TRUMP Cabinet picks — including Fox News personality PETE HEGSETH, who could be Blair's counterpart as secretary of defense; and former Rep. MATT GAETZ, who was briefly Trump's nominee for attorney general.

What's it like to learn these names in real time, along with the rest of us, as Trump announced them on social media?

I'm not as shaken as some of you all appear to be, and it's because I've worked with the United States through a number of different administrations over decades. I have a lot of confidence in the institutions of America.

The Justice Department, the Defense Department, the State Department, the law enforcement community, the national security intelligence community. These are all people that I've worked really closely with for decades, through many different administrations, including the previous Trump administration.

We're democracies. We have elections. We have to get to work with new people in different offices. But my trust in those institutions hasn't wavered, and doesn't here either. There'll be some changes. There'll be some new things that we have to deal with, the new people and personalities. But I trust America.

Pros can read our full conversation, including the minister's acknowledgment that Canada's northerners transformed his view of Arctic sovereignty.

FILE - Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya delivers a speech at the European Parliament on Sept. 13, 2023, in Strasbourg, France. Tsikhanouskaya picked up the political baton from her husband, Belarusian opposition leader Syarhei Tsikhanouski, in 2020 after he was jailed in the runup to Belarus' presidential election. She ran a successful campaign but fled Belarus after longtime President Alexander Lukashenko declared   himself the winner in an election widely regarded in the West as fraudulent. (AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias, File)

"Belarusian people, including me, we don't feel safe anywhere," Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said in Halifax over the weekend. | AP

SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA — For the second time this year, Playbook checked in with Tsikhanouskaya, who heads up a democratic movement in Belarus that opposes ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO's tight grip on power.

Tsikhanouskaya, who sat on a Halifax panel, ran in her husband's place in a 2020 election widely dismissed as rigged. She told Playbook her government in exile was entering "strategic consultations" with Canada meant to align the bilateral relationship with similar conversations in the U.S. and Europe.

Tsikhanouskaya, who lives in Lithuania, travels virtually everywhere with a bulky security detail — a conspicuous posse that caught our attention.

Do you feel unsafe, even in Canada?

I have protection from the Lithuanian government. But Belarusian people, including me, we don't feel safe anywhere. We understand that any activist, any human rights defender, they are targets of this regime.

I want to believe that in the democratic world, I feel safe. I want to feel safe. But we don't know how long the regime's hands are, and what methods they might use to punish people.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Montreal and will deliver remarks at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will provide an update on the government’s economic plan at 1 p.m. She’ll be joined by Public Services Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS and Small Business Minister RECHIE VALDEZ. She will also attend QP. At 5:30 p.m., she will chair a meeting of the Cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released public itineraries.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak to the media at 1:45 p.m. before attending QP.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend parliament in person.

DULY NOTED


— Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in Rome for two days of G7 ministerial meetings — the final round before Canada takes over the presidency.

— CBC President and CEO CATHERINE TAIT is at the House heritage committee at 11 a.m.

— Immigration Minister MARC MILLER will be at the House citizenship and immigration committee this afternoon.

COUNTDOWNS

Your reminder of some key events edging ever closer.

Sitting days, including today, until the deadline to pass supplementary estimates: 12 … Christmas break: 17, at the absolute most … Summer: 86, at the absolute most.

Calendar days until Nova Scotia provincial election: 1 Sustainable Finance Forum: 3… The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 16 … The federal by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C.: 21. The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Halifax, N.S.: 97.

Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us!

For your radar


BUSINESS PLAN — As political and military leaders digest their Halifax gabfest, and the prime minister heads to Montreal for the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, the Business Council of Canada is serving up a new report on defense spending.

— In three words: Spend more, sooner.

— A receptive audience: Defense Minister BILL BLAIR committed at the Halifax International Security Forum to "accelerate" spending — i.e. to hit NATO's target before the government's current objective of 2032.

→ Jump to the BCC conclusion: Canada should hit the military alliance's target — 2 percent of GDP — by 2030. The Business Council argues for at least 2.5 percent by 2035, and an upward trajectory to 3 percent, where several allies are already aiming.

How do the BCC'ers recommend the federal government get there? Beef up Canada's defense industrial base — the building blocks of military capabilities at home and abroad.

— Problem: "Successive governments have failed to adequately invest in Canada’s defense industrial base, depriving our military of the capabilities they need to contend with a far more dangerous world, as well as isolating Canada from its closest allies, such as the United States," reads the report.

— Solution: "A strong and sovereign defense industrial base will not only allow the government to safeguard Canadians and support our allies, but also supercharge Canada’s economic security and prosperity through increased innovation and job creation."

Read the full Business Council report.

MEDIA ROOM

Conference participants walk past activists urging public climate finance for poor countries.

Countries agreed to a deal early Sunday that asks rich, developed nations to pay at least $300 billion a year by 2035. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

— The U.N. climate summit ended with a long-fought deal — and a lot of anger, POLITICO’s SARA SCHONHARDT, ZIA WEISE, ZACK COLMAN and KARL MATHIESEN report from Baku.

— Another U.N. summit kicks off today — in Busan, South Korea — with a mission to end the world’s plastic addiction. POLITICO’s LEONIE CATER and JORDAN WOLMAN report on the 5 things that could derail it.

— CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and EUGENE DANIELS report that KAMALA HARRIS has been instructing advisers and allies to keep her options open — whether for a possible 2028 presidential run, or even to run for governor in California.

— SAVANNA CRAIG of APTN News reports from Kangiqsujuaq, a small village in northern Nunavik in Quebec, where on Saturday evening Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE delivered a federal apology for the slaughter of Inuit sled dogs in the 1950s and 1960s.

— From POLITICO's LISA KASHINSKY and MYAH WARD: How Democrats will try to block Trump’s promise of mass deportations.

— On "The Decibel" pod this morning: What the GST break means for you.

— “Trudeau may claim he is being unfairly trashed for dancing at a TAYLOR SWIFT concert while Montreal burned. But as a symbol, the juxtaposition couldn’t be more appropriate,” MICHAEL HIGGINS argues in the National Post.

PROZONE


For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: ‘The United States needs the USMCA.’

In other news for Pro readers:

US plastics treaty stance murky ahead of final UN talks.

Environmental groups sue over California’s first carbon capture project.

ELON MUSK’s critics head to X-it over political escapades.

Kennedy's 'MAHA transition team' includes anti-vax activists.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: Former Quebec Justice Minister GIL RÉMILLARD is 80 today.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Former Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT, still listed as a Cabinet minister on the PM's website.

Noted: “What's the difference between a first-term MP and a member of the public? About half a million dollars in human resources,” joked PETER MACLEOD in this year’s Meisel lecture, which he titled, “Maximum Democracy or Learning to Love the Public.” The principal of MASS LBP shared his speaking notes on LinkedIn over the weekend.

Movers and shakers: The PM’s office announced three changes to the public service. PAUL HALUCHA will become DM of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada on Dec. 31, taking over from KELLY GILLIS, who is retiring. Next month at Public Safety Canada, JEFFERY HUTCHINSON and DANIEL MILLS will take over as associate DMs.

On the Hill


Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here. 

11 a.m. CBC President and CEO CATHERINE TAIT will return to the House heritage committee.

11 a.m. HEIDI RATHJEN of PolySeSouvient will be at the House committee on the status of women. The committee is studying gender-based violence.

11 a.m. Parliamentary Librarian CHRISTINE IVORY will be at the standing joint committee on the Library of Parliament to discuss the 2023-28 strategic plan.

11 a.m. The House committee on public accounts will return to their study of Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

11 a.m. ARLENE DICKINSON is on the roster at the House international trade committee.

12 p.m. On the agenda at the House natural resources committee: Debate on the motion of MARIO SIMARD and of the amendment of MAJID JOWHARI.

3:30 p.m. Immigration Minister MARC MILLER will be at the House citizenship and immigration committee.

3:30 p.m. Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI will be at the House justice committee to discuss Bill S-13.

3:30 p.m. Commissioner of Competition MATTHEW BOSWELL and SHEREEN BENZVY MILLER of the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada will be at the House industry committee to discuss Canada's e-transfer ecosystem — a four-hour session.

3:30 p.m. RAYMOND J. DE SOUZA and FAE JOHNSTONE are among the witnesses at the House heritage committee as it explores freedom of expression.

4 p.m. The Senate national security committee will take Bill C-26 through clause-by-clause study.

4:30 p.m. The Senate human rights committee continues its work on issues related to youth aging out of foster care.

5 p.m. Commissioner of Official Languages RAYMOND THÉBERGE will be at the Senate official languages committee.

Behind closed doors: The House environment committee and the House committee on Canada-China relations will be at work on draft reports.

TRIVIA


Friday's answer: Admission to the Royal Agricultural Winter Fair when it first opened its gates in 1922 was 25 cents.

Props to LAURE HOURDEBAIGT, JOHN ECKER, MALCOLM MCKAY, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and BOB GORDON.

Today’s question: ``Felt I had sold out. I must get rid of it, I kept saying, I must get rid of it," JOHN LENNON said in November 1969. To what was he referring?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Mickey Djuric @MickeyDjuric

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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